Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pamplin City, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 730 PM EST Saturday...

Evening RNK sounding remains dry...PWAT under 0.25. No changes planned for the evening forecast update.

Key Messages:

1) Moderating temperatures.

2) Winds increasing overnight into Sunday especially for the higher elevations.

Some standing orographic cirrus north of Lynchburg otherwise skies across the forecast area are clear.

Overnight, expecting some high clouds around but overall they should be thin, so mostly clear skies. Could see some standing wave cirrus again over the Alleghanys to the Blue Ridge of VA before dawn through mid morning based on the upper air pattern which tends to favor this. A 40-55kt low level 8h jet tracks across the central Appalachians into the Shenandoah Valley late tonight into Sunday morning, weakening Sunday afternoon.
Forecast soundings show winds staying below advisory levels with nocturnal inversion keeping the stronger winds confined to higher ridges late tonight. Some mixing takes place by mid to late morning Sunday so expect some 20-30 mph gusts across the Blue Ridge foothills west into the mountains with gradually weakening wind in the afternoon.

A warm front tracks into the Ohio Valley/TN Valley Sunday afternoon, and will likely see some increasing clouds moving in from the southwest late in the day but airmass is dry and precip will be after this period.

With warm advection and sunshine, temperatures will reach the upper 50s to mid 60s in the Piedmont Sunday, to 50s in the mountains.

Forecast confidence is moderate on clouds/winds and above average on temps and no precip.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1230 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Periods of rain Monday and Tuesday.

2. Above normal temperatures through the beginning of the week.

An upper shortwave will track northward towards the area late Sunday night into Monday, and southwesterly flow aloft and at the surface from the surface high moving east in the Atlantic will advect warmer air and more moisture into the area, continuing the upward trend in temperatures and an increase in cloud cover Sunday night. Rain looks to reach the forecast area during the overnight hours Sunday into the early hours of Monday morning as the wave approaches the forecast area. Rain probabilities decrease as the wave pulls away late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Around this time, a 500mb trough will deepen over the central US, keeping broad southwesterly flow over much of the eastern US, which will result in warmer temperature and moisture advection. The leading cold front will bring additional precipitation to the area through much of Tuesday. Rainfall totals Monday will be around a half an inch. Through Tuesday night, an additional 0.75" to 1.0" are possible.

Increasing 500mb heights and warm air advection via the southwesterly surface winds will result in a warming trend, and temperatures will reach above seasonal normals through the forecast period, with highs in the 50s to low 60s in the Piedmont for Monday and Tuesday. Clouds will keep overnight lows in the 40s, though Tuesday night will be colder following the frontal passage.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1245 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain continues early Wednesday, transitioning to mountain snow showers. Dry to end the work week.

2. Colder temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, near normal by Friday and Saturday.

An upper trough will be almost over the area by Wednesday, with a surface cold front situated east of the area, along the Atlantic Coast. Periods of precipitation will be ongoing through Wednesday morning, though much colder air will be filling into the area behind the front. Rain will likely transition to snow showers over the mountains Wednesday, and could linger through much of the day before most of the moisture pulls farther from the area with the eastward movement of the front. The upper trough also lifts out of the area, so flow aloft turns more westerly than northwesterly, so not expecting a prolonged period of upslope snow showers. A tight pressure gradient between the departing front and approaching high pressure and strong cold air advection will lead to gusty winds through Wednesday and into Thursday.

Thursday will be the coldest day of the forecast period, with sub freezing minimum temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday night.
With high pressure overhead, the end of the work week and beginning of the weekend looks to be dry, and temperatures will increase towards normal.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 740 PM EST Saturday...

VFR through the period with high pressure in control. There will be some upper level cloud element (cirrus) from time to time.

Main aviation concern late tonight and early Sunday will be strong low level jet which with surface inversion leads to low level wind shear for ROA/BCB/BLF/LWB.

Winds will mix out late this period with gusts to 20-25kts from the west-southwest.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected through 06Z Monday. After that periods of -RA/RA and sub-VFR conditions are expected Monday morning through Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 1234 PM EST Saturday...

Dry antecedent conditions and lowering RH/gusty winds Sunday will lead to drying fuels. This is mainly over our foothills and Piedmont Sunday afternoon. Strongest winds will be prior to 1pm, while the lower humidity happens in the afternoon.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.