Pamplin City, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pamplin City, VA

June 21, 2024 10:19 PM EDT (02:19 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM
Moonrise 7:54 PM   Moonset 4:02 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pamplin City, VA
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Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 212313 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 713 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain over the area into the weekend, keeping the weather mostly dry through early Sunday. A front drops down Sunday into Monday with increasing chances for storms. Above normal temperatures and increasing humidity will lead to an increased risk of heat related impacts.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 700 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Isolated showers/storms possible in the mountains this Saturday afternoon.

2. Weatherwise, Saturday will be similar to today, but slightly warmer/more humid for the Piedmont.

Temperatures continue to increase but dewpoints are still running in the tolerable level of 50s to lower 60s. A weak convergence zone across the Alleghanys of WV led to a few showers/storms earlier but trend in radar and models is for this activity to be gone by 9pm. Cannot rule out patchy fog tonight, but the drier antecedent conditions will likely make it limited.

Previous discussion...

A sprawling ridge of high pressure continues to dominate much of the southern and central CONUS, bringing heat and humidity to millions. By Saturday night, the center will stretch from the desert SW and eastward to encompass TX and some of the Gulf Coast. An area of troughing north of the dome of hot air will help with the formation of a deepening surface low over the northern Plains. A weak surface trough was indicated on visible satellite imagery as towering cumulus clouds across northern VA and into WV this afternoon. Relatively low dew points in the low to mid 60s and moderate subsidence will keep anything substantial from forming, but we may see a sprinkle over SE WV this afternoon.

Tonight, subsidence, calm winds, and clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 60s. On Saturday, SW winds and mostly to partly sunny skies along with the anomalously warm air mass in place will support high temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Dew points will edge upward, especially east of the Blue Ridge, and heat indices will reach the upper 90s there.
This is shy of our Heat Advisory criteria of 105 to 109F for at least 2 consecutive hours in the Piedmont. However, it is still important to take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside, such as drinking more water and taking breaks in air conditioning. Heat exhaustion/stroke can happen to anyone.

For areas west of the Blue Ridge Saturday, lower dew points will keep heat index values in the 80s to low 90s. There is another small chance for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon and evening for the mountains, but again coverage will be quite low.

Confidence in the near term is high.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Hot Sunday

2: Front and storms cool back down for Monday

As most of the southern CONUS sits under a subtropical ridge, temperatures will be ticking up this weekend. Being in the warm sector of an approaching front will also work to push those thermometers up. Heat indices on Sunday will likely cross over the 3- digit threshold in the Piedmont, though only just. No heat advisories in the cards just yet, as heat index values are forecast to remain under 105 F.

A front is expected to pass over southwestern VA during peak heating on Sunday afternoon. This could result in strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday. A few counties north of I-64 are outlooked with a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday, with damaging wind gusts being the greatest concern. The later the timing of the front, and thus clouds and showers, the hotter the temperatures will get.

Post-frontal environment and some cooling effects from showers and storms will drop temperatures 5-10 degrees from Sunday to Monday. A few showers could linger into the morning hours Monday, but the stronger storms will have occurred Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1). Increasingly unsettled and variable weather through the period.

2). Monday through Tuesday bring a respite from the heat and humidity.

3). Hot temperatures surge back into the region for Wednesday ahead of another cold front.

4). Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday with notably cooler temperatures headed into the weekend.

A strong upper trough and frontal system will be developing to our west and is slated to reach the region late Wednesday into Thursday. This system will bring a definite end to the hot/humid/lack of rainfall conditions of the past couple of weeks.

However, the cooling and rainfall won't occur until the area experiences one more hot day on Wednesday. MEX guidance has several sites within and north/east of the CWA reaching the upper 90s on Wednesday. The record high 850mb temperature for Blacksburg since upper air soundings were done at this location (~1994) is +26C, which occurred on June 29, 2012. So the model advertised 850mb temperatures of +22C to +24C at 850mb is certainly pushing the upper end of the envelope!

As the front and upper trough move into the region Wednesday night into Thursday, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected. Given the hot temperatures and instability ahead of the front, some strong severe thunderstorms would seem to be a good possibility contingent on the amount of upper-level capping which would appear to be minimal given the notable height falls and colder temperatures aloft associated with the deepening trough.

At any rate, guidance is already advertising likely to near categorical pops for the late Wed-Thu period and this seems reasonable given the synoptic signals advertised by many of the long range models. Caveats to widespread significant rainfall will be the potential capping aloft and some indication of an area of convection focusing along the Gulf Coast, hence the C-Star effect! Temperatures will cool notably from the 90s on Wednesday to highs only in the 70s west to 80s east Thursday and Friday.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Moderate to High Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 700 PM EDT Friday...

Mainly VFR through the 24 hour TAF.

The only TAF site that may see brief fog is LWB, where dew point depressions may become small enough, but confidence is too low overall to add it in the forecast.

Winds remain light and south to SSW through tomorrow.

Forecast confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Pattern favors VFR/dry conditions into Saturday night with perhaps a chance for an isolated -TSRA near BLF or LWB in the 18-00Z time frame. Increasing chances for storms in brief MVFR or lower conditions Sunday into Monday, mainly in the afternoons. Overall VFR through the period aside from any morning fog at LWB and storms Sunday and Monday. Chances for showers and storms increase again for Wednesday.

CLIMATE
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

The following record high and record warm low temperatures may be in jeopardy:

Sunday 06/23/2024 Record High Minimum: Roanoke - Forecast 73, Record 75 (set 1996)
Blacksburg - Forecast 68, Record 70 (set 1896)

Record High: Roanoke - Forecast 97, Record 98 (set 1914)
Lynchburg - Forecast 97, Record 98 (set 1911)

Monday 06/24/2024 ROA record high minimum, forecast 73, record 72 (set in 2010)

Wednesday 06/26/2024 LYH record high, forecast 98, record 98 (set in 1952)

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFVX FARMVILLE RGNL,VA 11 sm4 mincalm10 smClear79°F64°F61%30.14
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Wind History graph: FVX
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Tide / Current for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
   
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Falling Creek entrance
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Fri -- 03:53 AM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:34 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:39 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Full Moon
Fri -- 11:11 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1.2
1
am
2.1
2
am
3.1
3
am
3.7
4
am
3.9
5
am
3.7
6
am
3.1
7
am
2.5
8
am
1.8
9
am
1.2
10
am
0.8
11
am
0.4
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
0.9
2
pm
1.9
3
pm
2.6
4
pm
3.1
5
pm
3.1
6
pm
2.8
7
pm
2.3
8
pm
1.7
9
pm
1.1
10
pm
0.7
11
pm
0.6


Tide / Current for Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia
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Lower Rocketts
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Fri -- 04:22 AM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:10 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:08 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Full Moon
Fri -- 11:47 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.8
1
am
1.5
2
am
2.6
3
am
3.5
4
am
3.8
5
am
3.8
6
am
3.4
7
am
2.8
8
am
2.2
9
am
1.5
10
am
1
11
am
0.6
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
0.6
2
pm
1.3
3
pm
2.3
4
pm
2.9
5
pm
3.2
6
pm
3
7
pm
2.6
8
pm
2
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
0.9
11
pm
0.6


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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Wakefield, VA,




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