Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pamplin City, VA

KEY MESSAGES

1. Showers and a few thunderstorms late this afternoon into Sunday. Chances for afternoon showers and storms in the mountains increase after midweek.

2. Post frontal airmass will bring more seasonal temperatures, with a couple chances for frost/freeze Sunday night and Monday night.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and a few thunderstorms late this afternoon into Sunday. Chances for afternoon showers and storms in the mountains increase after midweek.

Most of Saturday will have quiet weather, but above normal temperatures under strong southwest flow. Some record high temperatures are possible, please see the Climate section below.

A strong cold front crosses the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. With daytime heating increasing instability, might see a few showers pop up over the mountains ahead of the main front during the early evening hours. However, most of the showers and storms will come with the frontal passage itself during Saturday night, so expecting coverage to increase after sunset and later Saturday. CAMs seem to disagree somewhat on how much the front holds together once it gets east of the mountains and redevelopment in the Piedmont later on Sunday. Given the strong northwesterly, downslope flow, thinking redevelopment will be more in eastern VA, and so still not expecting more than a tenth of an inch of rain in the Piedmont and Southside. Rainfall amounts still look to be highest over southeast WV and southwest VA, between a quarter and half an inch, locally higher amounts possible with any thunderstorms. Elsewhere outside those areas will see up to a quarter inch at most.

Large surface high pressure arrives behind the front to start the work week, keeping the weather dry until another frontal systems starts to drop southward towards the area during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Rebounding temperatures under building 500mb ridge and a moist airmass will lead to widely scattered showers and possible thunderstorms during the afternoons, mainly terrain driven in the mountains, but initial amounts look to be limited at this time. Another chance for more widespread rainfall arrives with a front tracking towards the area from the central US over the weekend. However, this system is lacking strong upper level support at this time, as the 500mb trough starts to pull northward as it heads east, rather than digging and strengthening over the area, and merely flattens the ridge over the eastern US. That being said, confidence is low that this system next weekend will bring widespread, beneficial, drought busting rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Post frontal airmass will bring more seasonal temperatures, with a couple chances for frost/freeze Sunday night and Monday night.

Cold air behind the cold front will advect much more seasonal temperatures into the region Sunday night into Monday morning, mid to upper 30s forecast for mountain locations and upper 30s to low 40s forecast for Piedmont locations. At this time, only localized chances for a freeze look possible this night across portions of SE West Virginia as winds look to remain elevated, and temperatures are predominantly forecast to remain above freezing.

Chances increase for frost/freezing to occur Monday night into Tuesday as surface high pressure settles over the region leading to calm winds and clear skies. This will lead to efficient radiational cooling areawide. While maximum RH values look to be lackluster at around 60-70%, there could be some localized patchy frost that develops; however, widespread temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s will lead to freezing conditions areawide, and folks should take precaution with any early plants that may have been started outdoors.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are likely to continue for all terminals; however, KLWB may see some early morning river fog that may lead to some brief MVFR restrictions. upper level cirrus clouds will be present most of the day prior to a cold front that will approach the region towards 00 UTC Sunday. This will lead to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms pushing into mountain terminals between 00-03 UTC. These showers and thunderstorms look to bring MVFR CIGs to BLF, LWB, and BCB by the end of the TAF period. All other terminals look to remain VFR; however, some shower activity looks to approach LYH and ROA around the 06 UTC timeframe.

Wind gusts out of the south/southwest this afternoon will increase to 15 to 20 knots at all terminals. As the front starts to push through the region, winds will slowly start to become more westerly, but this is not expected to occur until the 03-06 UTC timeframe for BLF and LWB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Winds behind the front Sunday morning will gust into the 20-40 knot range out of the west/northwest at all terminals.
Restrictions due to low CIGs also look to linger through the mid morning hours on Sunday before improving throughout the day. The cold front should be out of the Mid- Atlantic by Monday morning (the latest) and skies will return to VFR. Winds may pick up again from the northwest as another cold (but dry) front moves through Monday. The next best chance of precipitation will likely be towards the end of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Warm and dry conditions are expected today. Winds will be gustier this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.

All things considered, these conditions will continue to support high fire danger of adverse fire behavior across the entire region with minimum RH values dropping into the 20-30% range. Fire containment for new starts will be difficult through today. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall comes this evening into Sunday with a cold front, but amounts look very light again for most.

We cool down back to normal behind the front early next week with a very dry airmass. Monday and Tuesday could see humidities in the teens.

These aforementioned conditions will make fire containment increasingly difficult through next week.

CLIMATE
The following are the record highs for April 18th and the forecast temperature at each of our climate sites.

SITE RECORD HIGH/YEAR FORECAST HIGH ROANOKE 91/1976 90 LYNCHBURG 95/1896 89 DANVILLE 93/1937 91 BLACKSBURG 87/1896 84 BLUEFIELD 88/1976 81

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.