Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bensley, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Clearing with patchy fog early this morning. Mainly dry and cooler to end the work week.

2) Rain chances return Friday night and Saturday. Rainfall totals will be light over much of the area, with steadier rainfall likely limited to Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina. Temperatures hover near or just below seasonal average Sunday, before moderating through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Clearing with patchy fog early this morning.
Mainly dry and cooler to end the work week.

Latest analysis reveals low pressure just north of the local area early this morning. The associated surface cold front is just west of the local area and will be crossing the lower mid- Atlantic through sunrise this morning. Some lingering showers along the coast early this morning that will taper off In the next few hours. A few rumbles of thunder possible across Northeast North Carolina, but no severe threat to speak of at this time. Also have some patchy fog evident in regional obs that will persist for a few more hours until the drier air arrives in earnest with the frontal passage. The front may linger along the far SE coast, allowing for the low chance of a brief shower or two along the Northern OBX. Otherwise, decreasing clouds, breezy, and drier today across the region. Seasonable temps today, mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Cool and dry tonight with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s SE coast under a partly to mostly clear sky. Some increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next system, but remaining dry through sunset. Highs mainly in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances return Friday night and Saturday.
Rainfall totals will be light over much of the area, with steadier rainfall likely limited to Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina. Temperatures hover near or just below seasonal average Sunday, before moderating through the middle of next week.

Increasing clouds Friday afternoon and evening ahead of a mid- level shortwave Dropping in from the Ohio Valley. This feature could bring a brief shower or two over the northern half of the area Friday night, while remaining (briefly) drier across the south. As that feature washes out late Friday, our next weather-maker approaches the region for late Friday night into Saturday. A southern stream shortwave slides across the Gulf Coast Friday night, with surface low pressure lifting northeast along a coastal front draped along the Southeast Coast. NAEFS IVT continues to maximize (97-99th percentile) along a corridor from the Florida Panhandle to the Carolina coast, suggesting the plume of deepest moisture remains suppressed to our south.
Still, a steady slug of light (stratiform) rainfall is expected to overspread Northeast NC and Hampton Roads on Saturday.
Unfortunately, forecast confidence is also increasing that the cool, stable airmass north of the low track will limit the northward progress of the deeper moisture plume. Accordingly, the latest 00z/30 GEFS/EPS probabilities for 0.1" remain in the 70-100% SE of RIC metro, but have lowered to 20-50% over the NW half of the area. Probabilities for a more significant 0.5+" of rainfall remains at 50-80% in the southeast, and 20% or less NW of a line from South Hill to Richmond and Salisbury. This will be a welcome rainfall for some, to be sure, but not a drought- buster by any means.

Rain ends from SW to NE Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Clearing out and remaining dry Sunday, as cool high pressure builds back over the region. Highs in the 60s, lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Temperatures then look to moderate back toward then back above climo normal from Monday toward midweek.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 610 AM EDT Thursday ...

A cold front is pushing toward the mid-Atlantic coast to begin the 12z TAF period. Mainly clear outside of SCT aftn cumulus today. Light winds becoming NW ~10 kt behind the front later this morning. A few gusts near 18-20 kt are possible late this morning and this afternoon.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions Thursday night last through Friday afternoon. Another storm system approaches the area on Saturday, bringing the potential for steady light to moderate rain additional flight restrictions Sat/Sat night, with best chances of sub-VFR CIGs /VSBY in SE VA/NE NC. Drying out Sunday, with mainly VFR conditions through early next week.

MARINE
As of 215 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front with generally weak cold advection will cross the waters early this morning. SCA headlines remain in effect for the Ches Bay until 10 AM.

- A secondary surge of cold advection is expected tonight with marginal SCA conditions expected in the Ches Bay.

- Minor tidal flooding is ongoing early this morning for portions of the Chesapeake Bay side of the Maryland Eastern Shore and the southern shore of the tidal Potomac River.

Weak low pressure and the associated cold front will cross the waters over the next few hours with winds becoming NW and increasing back to ~15-20 kt in the bay and coastal waters. SCA headlines remain in effect for the bay until 10 AM. 2-3 ft waves in the bay early this morning decrease to 1-2 ft by mid to late afternoon. Seas are 3-4 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft in the 20-60nm offshore zones.
Latest guidance continues to highlight a brief secondary surge of cold advection tonight with marginal SCA conditions possible in the bay. Local wind probs for 18+ kt sustained winds have increased to 50-70% in the Ches Bay for this period. Will let the current headlines expire before deciding on additional SCAs for tonight.

High pressure settles over the area on Friday and moves offshore overnight ahead of a southern stream disturbance. This low will be suppressed to south of the local waters but will possibly tighten the gradient enough over the southern waters (lower bay/James, coastal waters south of Cape Charles and the Currituck Sound) for SCA conditions Saturday. Coastal low pressure deepens offshore with increasing NW winds expected by early Sunday morning.

Coastal Flooding... Tidal anomalies are running 1-2 ft in the middle and upper bay this morning. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for the MD Eastern Shore and the southern shore of the Potomac early this morning. Anomalies are expected to decrease as NW winds move in behind the cold front. Some additional nuisance tidal flooding is possible on tonight's high tide cycle but water levels are not expected to reach minor flood thresholds.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634.