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ANZ636 York River- 1259 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
This afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

ANZ600 1259 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure builds over the area through midweek. Quick-moving low pressure and its associated strong cold front crosses the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, with high pressure rebuilding over the area for late week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 041749 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1249 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak upper trough will swing across the region this evening.
High pressure will return for later tonight through Tuesday afternoon. A stronger upper trough will swing into and across the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening, then high pressure will build in for Wednesday night and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 1245 PM EST Monday...

Pleasant wx and partly to mostly sunny skies prevail early this afternoon as a dampening shortwave aloft approaches from the west. Temperatures are mainly in the mid 50s to around 60F. This feature is progged to cross the FA this evening, which will result in an increase in clouds. However, the low-levels will remain dry so no precipitation is expected. The shortwave quickly moves offshore tonight, with clearing skies and light northerly winds expected. Lows will fall into the 30s in most areas.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM EST Monday...

Dry wx with slightly below normal temps expected on Tue, as high pressure builds across the region. Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 50s.

A deeper shortwave trough will approach from the NW Tue night, and cross the area Wed into early Wed evening. The best rain chances will be to our NW Tue night, with a 20-40% PoP across much of the region (for rain showers) on Wed. In addition, it will become breezy with NW winds Wed aftn into Wed evening, as the pressure gradient tightens on the back side of low pressure deepening well offshore. Lows Tue night will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Mostly cloudy and cool on Wed with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Drying out (and colder) Wed night with diminishing winds inland, as high pressure builds in from the west. Lows Wed night in the mid to upper 20s inland/Piedmont, with lower to mid 30s near the immediate coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 350 AM EST Monday...

High pressure will build over the region on Thu, before sliding off the Mid Atlc/SE Coast and out to sea for Thu night through Sat. Dry wx will prevail through Sat. However, during the second half of the weekend, there is the potential for more widespread rain, as a stronger low pressure system and cold front approach and push across the region from the west. Given that it is a week out, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding specifics.
Highs Thu mainly in the mid 40s to near 50. Lows Thu night in the lower to mid 30s in most areas. Increasingly milder from Fri through the weekend. Highs in the mid 50s to near 60 Fri, and in the lower to mid 60s Sat and Sun.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1245 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the 18z/04 TAF period with high clouds. Winds will be light and variable through early evening, before becoming NW-NE at around 5 kt tonight.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected Tue into Tue night, as high pressure will be over the area then shifts offshore.
An upper level trough will bring clouds and isolated to scattered showers late Tue night into early Wed evening. Flight restrictions are possible (mainly due to CIGs).

MARINE
As of 625 AM EST Monday...

Latest analysis reveals ~1000mb sfc low pressure over northern NY, with the associated sfc cold front now offshore of the mid- Atlantic coast. Locally, winds have veered around to the W-NW at ~10, with some locally stronger winds in the lower bay/lower James River. Regional ACARS soundings and model soundings continue to show a narrow axis of H925 winds of ~30-35 kt over the northern Delmarva, which will drop SE toward our far northern ocean zones in the next few hours. Winds in the Delaware Bay are currently 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt over Cape May and Lewes, DE as of 08z, and expect a brief window where winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt from ~09z-12z this morning. Any gusts to SCA would be rather short-lived, and with seas likely to remain 3-4 ft, no need for SCA at this time.

Thereafter, weak high pressure settles over the area later today into tonight with winds becoming light and variable. As 1022+mb cool high pressure builds in from the west, expect more organized cool air advection to push into the region tonight. Winds out of the NW-NNW increase to 10-15 kt tonight, lowest over the Rivers and Currituck Sound. In-house wind probs roughly match grand ensemble probabilities, with each showing ~20-30% probability of seeing a brief period of SCA conditions after midnight tonight/early Tues over the nrn Ches Bay, with gusts t0 25 kt also possible over the northern coastal zones north of Parramore Island.
Given this short-lived and marginal nature of the CAA surge late tonight, will hold off on Small Craft Advisory for now.
Transient high pressure briefly builds overhead on Tuesday, with winds again turning light and variable. Quick-moving low pressure crosses the area on Wednesday into Wed night, with SCAs very likely to be needed behind this system and its associated surface cold front NW winds of 20-25 kt and gusts to ~30 kt are forecast for late Wed aftn through Wed evening, with winds slowly subsiding as high pressure builds in behind the system for Thursday. Seas will quickly build to 5-7 ft Wed night (waves 2-4 ft). Winds gradually back to the west then southwest from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with winds aob 10 kt Thu night and Friday. Seas concurrently subside during this period, decreasing to 2-4 ft, with waves 1-2 ft.

00z/4 Global models are trending toward better agreement with respect to potential for impactful marine conditions for the upcoming weekend. ECMWF/GFS and their respective member ensemble means are in better agreement with timing of low pressure lifting NW of the local area Saturday into Sunday. Seas will start to gradually increase again late Fri/Fri night in E-SE swell between the approaching system and high pressure in the western Atlantic. Warm this weekend in gusty SSW flow ahead of the approaching cold front. SCA headlines will be possible both ahead of and behind this approaching front over the upcoming weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Falling Creek entrance
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Mon -- 03:36 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:06 AM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:35 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:40 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:23 PM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Curles
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Mon -- 03:18 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:02 AM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:34 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:22 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:19 PM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

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