Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 2:23 AM   Moonset 6:02 PM

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PZZ531 San Francisco Bay South Of The Bay Bridge- 307 Am Pdt Wed Jul 3 2024
Rest of tonight - NW wind around 5 kt, becoming light and variable. Waves around 2 ft or less. Wed - NW wind around 5 kt, rising to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Wed night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Independence day - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.Thu night - W wind 5 to 10 kt, easing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Fri - W wind around 5 kt, rising to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Fri night - W wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sat - W wind around 5 kt, rising to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sat night - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sun - W wind around 5 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Sun night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less.

PZZ500 307 Am Pdt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - . Gentle to moderate winds continue into the weekend, with gale force gusts expected over the northern outer waters through the early morning today. Portions of the northern outer waters may see peak wave heights between 12-16 feet through the late afternoon of Wednesday.

FXUS66 KMTR 031109 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 409 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Extreme heat will continue for inland areas and higher elevations.
Triple digit afternoon temperatures are expected into early next week. Please take it easy, we are still in the early stages of this prolonged heat wave.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

It's almost 1 AM as I type this and it's still 80 degrees in San Jose. Weather stations in the thermal belt around 1,500 ft are still in the low 90s. This is 5-10 degrees higher than expected on even the high-resolution short term models. If this trend holds through sunrise, the warm start will lead to numerous daily records being broken Wednesday. The NBM 50th percentile max temperature strategy broadly panned out yesterday, and was used again for the forecast this morning. One notable bust was Santa Cruz, where we forecast mid 80s, but they never got out of the 60s.
This is evidence that the marine layer, while shallow, is still having a profound cooling effect on coastal cities. This natural air conditioning will continue along the coast today, but with building high pressure, the marine layer will compress below 500 ft and won't extend as far inland. If you live along the coast, enjoy the nice weather, but before you complain that we are over-hyping the heat wave, remember that it was 108 degrees in Concord yesterday.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

July 4th is in the middle of this heat wave. It will be clear and hot, unless you can make it to the coast. With a shallow marine layer, there will be a big difference across the Bay Area microclimates. As an example, downtown San Francisco will be in the mid 80s, while Ocean Beach will remain in the mid 60s. Winds will mostly remain gentle to moderate. Enjoy the day but stay weather aware. Use caution in the heat or on the beach, and please skip the fireworks this year. Wildfires will be easy to start and quick to spread.

The lastest weather balloon found 850 mb temperatures have climbed above 25C. This threshold is reached 1.8% of the time. More interesting is the fact that the 850 mb temp now is expected to remain above 25C through the end of next week. Nearly all members of the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles keep a strong ridge in place that very gradually slides east over the next week and a half. As such, the confidence is high and increasing that this heat wave will persist through the end of next week for inland areas. There may be some slight relief after the weekend and inland temps may move back in the double digits, but it's not a big cool-down.
Additionally, the cumulative effect of this long heat wave will make it hard to appreciate the modest relief in afternoon temps.
With no strong offshore winds expected, coastal areas will remain more mild through this event.

It cannot be stressed enough that this is an exceptionally dangerous and lethal situation. It may not seem so if you live near the coast, but an event of this scale, magnitude, and longevity will likely rival anything we've seen in the last 18 years for inland areas. Several days of temperatures well above normal and little relief overnight will lead to compounding effects among people and infrastructure, with the possibility of numerous heat related fatalities and rolling black outs. Heat is the number one weather related killer in the United States. By this weekend, it is VERY LIKELY that we add to that statistic if preparations are not taken seriously.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 409 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR throughout the region with light offshore winds. Low confidence for ceilings developing at MRY and SNS overnight, otherwise VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Breezy onshore winds develop during the afternoon, but remain around 10-15 knots at strongest.

Vicinity of SFO...High confidence of VFR through the TAF period.
Light winds overnight, building to a breezy west-northwest flow this afternoon with wind speeds at 10-15 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Models are continuing to insist on a chance for stratus at SNS, and to a lesser extent MRY, this morning.
However, compressed marine layers and light offshore flow have kept any ceilings from developing tonight, so confidence is low. Breezy onshore winds will develop this afternoon, with a low to very low confidence of stratus tonight into Thursday morning.

MARINE
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 409 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Gentle to moderate winds continue into the weekend, with gale force gusts expected over the northern outer waters through the early morning today. Portions of the northern outer waters may see peak wave heights between 12-16 feet through the late afternoon of Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for high elevations of the North Bay, East Bay, and the Santa Cruz Mountains. These RFW extend through 5 AM Friday, including the 4th of July holiday.
Fuels will continue quickly curing through the weekend. In fact, 10 and 100 hour fuels are near historic levels in the North Bay in regard to the energy release component going into the weekend.
The same fuels in the Diablo Range and Santa Cruz Mtns aren't far behind. Further south, things start to dry out more this weekend.
A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the Santa Lucia Range, Interior Monterey and San Benito county, and the Southern Salinas Valley from Friday morning to Sunday night.

BEACHES
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Beaches will be a popular destination over the Holiday and as one of the few places to escape the oppressive inland temperatures.
Fortunately the waves are relatively low energy, but that doesn't alleviate all beach safety concerns. Ocean temperatures are in the mid-50s. This cold water may catch some off-guard. Cold water shock can set in very quickly. Wear a life jacket, dress appropriately, limit time in the water, swim near a lifeguard and follow their instructions.

CLIMATE
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

This heat wave will continue to break daily records. Here's a look at locations that tied or beat their daily record on Tuesday, July 2nd.

LOCATION HIGH PREVIOUS RECORD --------------------------------------------------------------- SAN JOSE 102 (TIED) 102 IN 1970 SAN RAFAEL 103 101 IN 1991 KENTFIELD 103 101 IN 1991 SANTA ROSA 105 103 IN 1970 OAKLAND 90 89 IN 2001

These data are preliminary and have not undergone final quality control by the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at www.ncei.noaa.gov.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006- 506-508.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006.

Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ502>504- 506-510-512>518.

Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for CAZ502>504-512-515.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ508-528-529.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for CAZ516>518.

PZ...Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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Coyote Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:25 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:15 AM PDT     -1.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:09 PM PDT     7.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:33 PM PDT     2.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:25 PM PDT     9.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coyote Creek, Tributary, Tide feet

Gold Street Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:25 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:57 AM PDT     -1.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:56 PM PDT     7.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:15 PM PDT     3.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:12 PM PDT     11.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gold Street Bridge, Alviso Slough, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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