Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Richmond, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Briefly milder temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Precipitation chances increase next weekend, especially by Sunday.

DISCUSSION
As of 1215 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Briefly milder temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

A brief warmup remains on track for Tue and Wed as a ridge briefly extends from the Gulf towards the local area. Temps warm into the mid 40s NE to lower 60s SW Tue and mid-upper 40s NE to upper 50s to near 60F SW Wed. Additionally, temps likely remain above freezing for most (apart from the Eastern Shore) Tue night with lows in the low- mid 30s north to low-mid 40s south. Will note that some uncertainty regarding temps remains for Wed as a cold front attached to a low moving into New England pushes south across the area Wed morning. As such, it is possible that temps trend cooler if clouds and cooler air move in earlier in the day. However, downsloping NW flow may help counter the CAA if clouds can clear early enough. In any case, above normal temps are likely, particularly across the southern half of the area.
Additionally, while precip chances have trended lower for Wed, cannot rule out a few light (rain) showers across far southern VA/NE NC (15-25% PoPs). Any showers would likely be light with little to no accumulation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Precipitation chances increase next weekend, especially by Sunday.

The warmup this week will be brief with a return to slightly below normal temperatures by Thu, potentially continuing into this weekend. There remains a low chance for a few light snow showers Fri across southern portions of the area, however, confidence continues to decrease (15-25% PoPs). Confidence has increased in an area of low pressure impacting the region next weekend. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to come into better agreement in an area of low pressure tracking into the TN Valley Sat night into Sun morning, eventually either moving east across the local area or transferring energy into another low across eastern NC Sun into Mon.
Both the GEFS (GFS ensemble) and EPS (euro ensemble) favor a Miller B type of setup with the two lows as opposed to one. Unfortunately for snow lovers, this appears to form in response to a weak trough underneath a ridge into Canada with limited cold air to work with.
Additionally, if the current Miller B track shown on ensemble is correct, both of the lows would be too far north for much more than a cold rain across the local area. However, there does appear to be an area of high pressure across New England which could allow for some CAD and perhaps a period of mixed precip. As such, it's certainly too early to rule out any wintry precip. In any case, this system should bring beneficial moisture to the area with the EPS now showing mean precip totals of around 1" area-wide by Sun night. EPS probs for at least 0.5" of precip were 70-90% with a 40-50% chance for at least 1". The GEFS probs were a bit lower at 40-60% for at least 0.5" and 20-40% for at least 1".

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1215 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions continue through the 18z/09 TAF period. Winds remain mainly light and variable through the day. However, SBY may see NW winds 5-10 kt continuing into this afternoon. Clear skies are expected through this afternoon with mid and high level clouds building in from the north later this evening into tonight. Dry/VFR conditions prevail into Tuesday afternoon.
Winds become S to SW, generally on the order of 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected through Friday. There is a low chance for some showers on Wednesday across southern portions of the area. Otherwise, a higher chance for precip arrives this weekend.

MARINE
As of 330 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through this morning for the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters and through this evening for the southern coastal waters.

- Freezing Spray Advisories continue for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters this morning.

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions return tonight through midweek.

High pressure has settled over the Mid-Atlantic region early this morning. Meanwhile, strong low pressure is located well offshore. The pressure gradient remains rather tight in vicinity of the coast. A NW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt continues over the Ches. Bay and ocean, with generally elsewhere. Seas are primarily 6-8ft S to 4- 6ft N, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches.
Bay. Small Craft Advisories for the Ches. Bay have been extended through 7AM. Meanwhile, SCAs for the northern coastal waters continue through 10AM, and 7PM for the southern coastal waters where seas will be slow to subside. Freezing Spray Advisories have been extended through 10AM for the Ches. Bay and coastal waters given, cold air temperatures, cold SSTs, and persistent wind. The Currituck Sound and portions of the Ches.
Bay, especially the Pocomoke Sound have limited due to ice coverage.

Gradually improving marine conditions are expected beginning later tonight and into the early portion of the week as high pressure settles over the region. High pressure shifts offshore Tuesday into Tuesday night with the wind becoming S then SW.
However, mixing will be very limited due to cold or ice covered water. A cold front crosses the coast late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Steady modest CAA developing Wednesday night through Friday as high pressure builds N of the region. Marginal SCA conditions are possible later Wednesday night into Thursday. Stronger low pressure potentially impacts the marine area by next weekend. However, confidence is very low with regard to track and timing of the low.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658.