Painter, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Painter, VA

June 22, 2024 12:15 AM EDT (04:15 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM
Moonrise 8:40 PM   Moonset 4:47 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 947 Pm Edt Fri Jun 21 2024

Overnight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sat night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sun - SW winds 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.

Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.

Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 947 Pm Edt Fri Jun 21 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure remains offshore through Sunday. Low pressure passing well to the north will push a cold front through the area Sunday night into Monday morning. An increase in wind speeds is expected late Sunday through Monday morning as a result of the approaching front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painter, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 220145 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 945 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast slowly shifts south tonight, leading to an extended period of hot weather this weekend and again next week. There is a small chance for rain Sunday evening into Monday, and again later next week, but most locations will remain dry.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
As of 745 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Mild and dry overnight with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

High pressure remains in control over the region early this evening. Dry/very warm conditions prevailed across the region today, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s as expected, highs in the mid to upper 80s along the coast.

Temperatures fall into the 70s through midnight, with late night/early morning lows in the upper 60s or lower 70s (warmest in the urban corridors and near the coast).

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Hot temperatures expected Saturday and Sunday with maximum temperatures both days in the mid/upper 90s to around 100 F.

- Heat indices of 100 to 105 F are expected on Saturday, and heat indices of 105+ F are expected on Sunday.

The hottest temps are still expected this weekend. Tomorrow, high pressure will shift further offshore to our SE, allowing winds at the surface to become SSW. While the ridge gradually begins to break down, 850 mb temps of 20-23C will be common across the area. This yields highs in the upper 90s to around 100 F inland (especially across the Richmond metro) and mid 90s closer to the coast. Similar to this afternoon, dewpoints will mix out tomorrow afternoon, generally dropping into the mid to upper 60s. This should help to keep heat index values somewhat in check, but heat index values of ~103 to 105 F will still be common (especially inland and urban areas). In addition, wet bulb globe temperatures (WBGT) will be in the upper 80s tomorrow which would suggest the potential for significant heat issues. As a result, even though we may fall just short of official Heat Advisory criteria decided to err on the side of caution and issued a Heat Advisory for much of central VA/Richmond Metro down into the Hampton Roads metro. Left out southwestern portions of the area and North Carolina where we likely see slightly cooler air temperatures and more mixing. Also left out the Eastern Shore, where an afternoon sea-breeze should help to keep temperatures in check. Interior portions of the MD Eastern Shore will still have heat index values of 100 to 102 F. It should also be noted that overnight lows in the mid-upper 70s will not provide much relief, potentially compounding the heat issues for those who do not have access to air conditioning.

The core of the heat is expected to shift SE some for Sunday, though hot temps will remain over the entire forecast area with 850 temps remaining in the 20-23C range. High temperatures will be similar to Saturday, if not a degree or two higher in spots (especially east). Highs range from around 100 F across the Richmond metro, to the mid to upper 90s elsewhere. Dewpoints on Sunday will be higher compared to Sunday due to strengthening southwesterly sfc flow. The flow aloft also shifts more W-SW and 700 mb RH fields show a noticeable increase in moisture across the area. This is likely to prevent the degree of afternoon mixing seen today (Friday) and Saturday. In this realm, dew points only drop into the upper 60s- low 70s in the afternoon, producing heat indices well into heat advisory range (105-110 F) for much of the area.
While a few locations could near 110 F, not enough confidence at this point for any excessive heat watches. WBGT in the upper 80s to around 90 also suggest the potential for significant heat stress for those outdoors and especially those participating in strenuous activities. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be needed for much of, if not all of the forecast area Sunday.
There will again not be much relief from the heat Sunday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

The other part of the forecast Sunday is any potential for later afternoon/evening convection. Those higher dew points support higher sfc-based instability and upper-level height falls from an approaching shortwave could set off isolated storms, especially later in the day. With the hot temps, steep low-level lapse rates and high DCAPE could support a damaging wind threat if any storm can develop. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for our northern tier of counties. Shear is weak so not expecting much in the way of organized svr wx. With uncertainty in coverage very high, PoPs are only 20-30% (highest across the north) Sunday afternoon. Will want to keep an eye on the various CAMs as they come into range over the next 24-36 hrs. A weak cold front slowly pushes through the area Sunday night suggesting perhaps some higher coverage of showers or storms. Have chance PoPs for most of the area overnight (highest coverage still expected N). Still, this does not look to be a widespread beneficial rainfall to alleviate the developing drought over the area, with only ~0.10" of QPF in the forecast for portions of the area through Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Another hot day Monday with higher humidity. Scattered storms also possible across the southeast.

- The heat builds again midweek, with temperatures again increasing well into the 90s to near 100.

- Flash drought conditions developing.

It remains hot Monday, but air temps will not be as high as Sat/Sun.
However, the humidity levels will be even higher as dew points stay in the low-mid 70s for most of the area. Heat indices of 100-105 F are expected for most of the area, though SE VA and NE NC could see heat indices in excess of 105 F. The one caveat is potential afternoon convection developing along the "cold" front in these same areas which could mute the upper end temp potential. As of now, going with highs in the mid 90s areawide (upper 80s to lower 90s Eastern Shore). Regarding convection, guidance continues to hone in on southeastern VA and northeast NC for the best storm chances. With less coverage W of I-95 with the frontal boundary E/SE of these areas. Model instability fields show high MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg, highest NE NC) ahead of the boundary. Weak shear will again prevent much in the way of storm organization, though the high CAPE and DCAPE again suggests damaging downburst winds and frequent lightning as potential threats.

The cold front does very little to provide any heat relief as temps Tuesday remain in the low-mid 90s. Even hotter Wednesday and we again could be talking about temps nearing 100 F. This ultimately makes sense given the downslope NW flow and still warm 850 mb temps around 21-24C per both the 12z/21 GFS and ECMWF. It will be drier, due to the downslope flow, with dew points perhaps dropping back in the mid 60s as compared to the low-mid 70s seen on Monday. By Thursday, another cold front approaches from the NW and will continue chance PoPs for the area, favoring the higher coverage across the S and SE. While this front looks to have a little more moisture to work with, the chances for widespread rainfall remain low. Temps may try to drop closer to average for the later part of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 F.

On that note, it continues to not look promising for widespread rainfall, as many places will see little to no rain through the period. The latest NBM probabilities are not optimistic either with the probability for at least 0.50" of total rainfall through the midweek period 10-20% across the W/NW and 30-50% across the E/SE.
This will only exacerbate the recent dry conditions and set us up for what can be considered a "flash drought". More information on this can be found on CPC's Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or drought.gov.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 745 PM EDT Friday...

Primarily VFR conditions are expected through much of the 00z TAF period, with mainly clear sky through the late night hours.
There is some potential for MVFR CIGs to work into far SE portions of the area late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Greater confidence at ECG vs ORF, w/ confidence remaining lower at ORF. S/SSE winds around 5-7 kt overnight, becoming E-SE along the coast ~10kt.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday afternoon, as high pressure remains centered off the coast. There is a low chance for some isolated to widely scattered storms Sun evening and again on Mon afternoon into Mon evening.

MARINE
As of 945 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

-Sub-SCA conditions expected through Sunday morning.

-Winds increase on Sunday with SCA conditions likely Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

-Moderate Rip Current Risk continues through the weekend.

Winds S-SW 5-15 kt expected tonight. Waves on the Bay, Rivers and Sound 1-2 ft, with seas 2-3 ft.

High pressure settles off the Southeast coast Saturday into Sunday.
A SSW wind will generally be 5-10kt Saturday morning into early aftn, with a late aftn/early evening diurnal shift to SSE and increase to ~15kt for the Ches. Bay and ocean N of Cape Henry (10- 15kt elsewhere). Seas build to 3-4ft N (mainly 2-3ft S) with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 2-3ft with the diurnal shift and increase in wind. A weakening cold front slowly approaches from the NW Saturday night through Sunday night. A SW wind potentially increases to 15-20kt for the Ches. Bay and northern ocean late Saturday evening into early Sunday, with marginal SCA conditions possible in the Ches. Bay. The pressure gradient tightens over the ocean Sunday aftn/evening with a ~20kt SSW wind possible, which could result in seas building to 4-6ft N of Cape Charles later Sunday aftn into Sunday night. Additionally, a SW wind potentially increases to 15-20kt for the Ches. Bay Sunday night with marginal SCA conditions possible. The pressure gradient slackens Monday into Tuesday as the weakening cold front settles into the area and washes out. High pressure rebuilds offshore by the middle of next week with sub-SCA southerly flow returning. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft Monday into the middle of next week with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

Rip currents: A moderate rip risk will continue today for all beaches with some SE swell ~3ft with ~8s periods. An elevated rip risk likely continues through the weekend. Confidence of moderate is higher for the northern beaches Saturday and Sunday, but southerly flow and a longshore current may preclude a high risk.

CLIMATE
Record high temperatures for Saturday, June 22:

- RIC: 101 (1933)
- ORF: 99 (1981)
- SBY: 98 (1988)
- ECG: 98 (1942)

Record high minimum temperatures for Sunday, June 23:

- RIC: 76 (2010)
- ORF: 79 (2015)
- SBY: 75 (1925)
- ECG: 78 (2015)

Record high temperatures for Sunday, June 23:

- RIC: 101 (1988)
- ORF: 99 (2015)
- SBY: 99 (1988)
- ECG: 99 (2011)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ048-061- 062-064-068-069-075>078-080>086-088>090-092-093-095>098- 509>525.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 5 mi46 minSSW 11G13 77°F 82°F30.15
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 13 mi46 minS 17G18 30.20
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 25 mi40 minS 12G18 77°F 78°F2 ft
44089 27 mi50 min 74°F3 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi46 minS 15G17 75°F 77°F30.19
44072 37 mi34 minS 12G18 77°F 1 ft
CHBV2 41 mi46 minS 11G12 77°F 30.13
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi46 minS 12G16 76°F 80°F2 ft
44064 43 mi40 minS 7.8G9.7 74°F 76°F4 ft
44087 43 mi50 min 76°F1 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 44 mi46 minS 9.9G13 79°F 80°F30.15
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 46 mi50 min 76°F3 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi46 minS 15G17 79°F 83°F30.14
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi46 minS 8.9G12 77°F 82°F30.14
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 47 mi46 minS 8.9G11 77°F 30.16


Wind History for Wachapreague, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA 5 sm0 minS 0610 smClear30.16
KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA 21 sm20 minS 11G1610 smClear79°F72°F79%30.15
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Wind History graph: MFV
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Tide / Current for Wachapreague, Wachapreague Channel, Virginia
   
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Wachapreague
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Fri -- 02:53 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:42 AM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:38 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Full Moon
Fri -- 09:25 PM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Wachapreague, Wachapreague Channel, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
2.5
1
am
1.5
2
am
0.6
3
am
0.3
4
am
0.7
5
am
1.6
6
am
2.4
7
am
3
8
am
3.5
9
am
3.6
10
am
3.1
11
am
2.3
12
pm
1.5
1
pm
0.7
2
pm
0.1
3
pm
0.1
4
pm
0.7
5
pm
1.8
6
pm
2.9
7
pm
3.8
8
pm
4.5
9
pm
4.9
10
pm
4.9
11
pm
4.3


Tide / Current for Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Gaskins Point
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Fri -- 04:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:57 AM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:22 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Full Moon
Fri -- 11:16 PM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1.8
1
am
1.5
2
am
1.1
3
am
0.7
4
am
0.4
5
am
0.1
6
am
0.1
7
am
0.3
8
am
0.7
9
am
1.1
10
am
1.5
11
am
1.6
12
pm
1.5
1
pm
1.2
2
pm
0.9
3
pm
0.5
4
pm
0.3
5
pm
0.1
6
pm
0.1
7
pm
0.4
8
pm
0.9
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
1.9
11
pm
2.1


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