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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 137 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Monday afternoon...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt after midnight. Waves 4 to 5 ft. Rain with a chance of tstms in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 5 ft. A chance of snow in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 137 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
a strong cold front approaches from the west today bringing strong southerly winds to the local waters. The front will cross the region tonight, with strong winds shifting to the northwest. High pressure builds in from the west Monday night into Tuesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 102012 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 312 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area later today. Expect gusty and rainy conditions across the entire area, with locally heavy rain possible at times. Colder air will sharply move in behind the frontal system as high pressure builds back into the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 1255 PM EST Sunday...

Showers and embedded thunderstorms have decreased in coverage early this afternoon but should continue to increase in coverage later this afternoon. Additionally, a supercell in RAH, NC continues to move NE towards the local area over the next couple of hours. This storm has already had a confirmed tornado and will continue to be closely monitored as it approaches the FA.
The main near-term severe threat is across SE VA/NE NC mainly wherever the supercell tracks. SPC has pushed the slight risk (level 2/5) further NW along the I-85 corridor and to RIC.

Showers are likely this afternoon. Hi-res CAMs continue to show additional prefrontal convection developing across central and eastern portions of the FA this afternoon ahead of the front.
More widespread rain is expected this afternoon and evening with scattered thunderstorms. Instability has already developed across SE VA/NE NC this morning with up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE.
CAPE is expected to increase later this morning into this afternoon to 500-1000 J/kg (highest values in NE NC). If any additional breaks in cloud cover can occur this afternoon, instability will be locally higher (closer to 1000 J/kg) with severe storms more likely.

Strong LLJ may allow for strong to severe winds to mix down to the surface in the strongest cells this afternoon. Exact timing of severe threat seems to have expanded a bit earlier, possibly starting as early as mid- day and persisting into the evening hours, especially across SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s across eastern VA/NC this afternoon. Low level wind fields will strengthen during the day, with damaging winds and tornadoes the primary risks. Given the increased dew points (mid 60s already in the SE) and therefore instability, SPC has increased the threat level to a slight risk (level 2/5) across SE VA/NE NC where multiple rounds of convection are possible. The first round will be prefrontal semi-discrete convection developing ahead of a theta-e boundary later this morning into this afternoon. Any storms that can remain discrete have the best chance for a tornado. A secondary round of convection is possible with the front itself as the wind field increases this evening due to the secondary sfc low in NC strengthening. Instability will be more questionable with this round due to multiple rounds of convection during the day potentially overturning the environment. However, with strengthening frontogenesis and an enhanced LLJ as the trough becomes negatively tilted this evening, storms may be severe along the front, especially with any kinks or curves that form in it with damaging winds and tornadoes possible. Damage to power lines and trees will be possible in any of the gusty winds that occur throughout the day.

Otherwise, the upper trough will continue to deepen this afternoon and eventually take on a negative tilt as it lifts north from the Gulf Coast crosses the area tonight. Anomalous high amounts of deep- layered moisture is advecting into the area as the flow at the sfc and aloft is from the SW. PWAT values expected to surge to 1.50-1.75"later today ahead of the cold front. The strong southerly flow ahead of the front this afternoon and evening will result in wind gusts of 20-30 mph, with the stronger speeds closer to the coast (which is slightly lower than previously forecasted). The highest wind gusts will be behind the cold front with NW winds gusting to 30-45+ mph tonight into early Monday morning. Make sure to secure any loose outdoor objects and holiday decorations that may blow around/away in the wind tonight.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2- 3 inches are expected with this system. There will likely be localized higher amounts across eastern VA and southeastern MD. Some high res models are indicated storms may train over the same areas, and may produces around 4" of rainfall. Lastly, expect a very quick 15- 20 F temperature drop as winds abruptly turn to the NW following the frontal passage. Stratiform precip will continue for a few hours early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around the system as it exits and continues to strengthen. Latest 00z model runs are indicating a better chance for rain to change over the snow late tonight into early Monday morning. This may coincide with a band of strong mid- level frontogenesis, which could create high precip rates and allow for the cold air loft to make it to the sfc, changing rain to snow. If there is accumulation, it will be mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces. This will mainly effect areas of central VA, including the Richmond metro.
The precipitation is forecast to end by 4-6 AM west/6-8 AM east. If the precip does change over to snow any faster than currently expected, there may be up to an inch of snow on grassy/elevated surfaces in our far NW counties Monday morning.
Lows are forecast to fall into the mid 30s-around 40F.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 415 AM EST Sunday...

High pressure will then build in behind the front during the day on Monday. Any rain or snow will end before 9 AM. Expect clouds to gradually clear out throughout the late morning to early afternoon hours. Highs on Monday will struggle to reach back into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. A chilly night is forecast Monday night as the cold air really settles in, with most inland locations falling into the lower 20s and coastal spots dipping to around 30 degrees. Tuesday will bring much of the same as high pressure centers itself across the region.
Expect clear skies, light winds, and high temperatures around 50 degrees. Tuesday night won't be quite as cold with lows in the upper 20s inland and low to mid 30s along the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 100 AM EST Sunday...

Benign weather looks to start the long term period with dry and seasonably cool conditions. Zonal flow will be in place as surface high pressure becomes centered over the region. Some clouds may pass through on Wednesday before clearing out overnight allowing for temperatures to fall into the low to mid 20s inland and low to mid 30s along the coast. A reinforcing secondary high pressure will keep the dry and cool airmass in place for Thursday, with highs holding in the upper 40s to around 50. Models then start to indicate a potent low pressure system developing somewhere across the Intermountain West to Southwest before moving eastward across the country. Differences in placement and timing of this system are very noticeable by the Friday-Saturday timeframe. Will keep monitoring this developing system through time since both have it making it to the Mid-Atlantic region and impacting our local weather at the very end of the long term period.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 PM EST Sunday...

MVFR and IFR conditions continue through tonight with IFR CIGs spreading E later this afternoon into tonight. Rounds of rain and scattered thunderstorms will continue through tonight ahead of and behind a strong cold front with thunderstorm chances only ahead of the front until around midnight. Occasional drops in VIS to IFR is likely. Gusty winds are possible with any storms.
The strongest winds will come behind the cold front as winds shift from S 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt ahead to NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30+ kt behind the front. LLWS is expected as well this evening into early tonight with the highest confidence at ECG/ORF/PHF/SBY. As the storm system moves away from the local area late tonight into early Mon morning, rain may mix with or change to all snow across the Piedmont with a rain/snow mix possible at RIC (10-12z but maybe as early as 9z). Rain/snow tapers off by 13z with clearing expected Mon and a return to VFR conditions.

Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Forecast remains on track this afternoon with a strong cold front approaching from the west. Southerly flow is streaming in across the area, though remaining within low-end SCA thresholds so far. Winds are currently 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt, with seas around 3-5ft and waves of 1-2ft. Expect all of these values to increase as we go through the evening hours as the cold front gets closer, with seas becoming 7-9ft north and 6-8ft south, and waves of 4-5ft in the Mouth of the Bay and 3-4ft in the lower and middle Bay.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening and early overnight hours ahead and along the front. Strong, erratic gusts will be possible in the stronger cells.

The front looks to push through the local waters after 10pm. This will result in an abrupt wind shift out of the northwest. All waters will see wind speeds increase along and behind the frontal passage, thus, Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters, Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound for late this evening into mid-day Monday. Expect northwesterly winds of 25-30kt with gusts upwards of 35-45kt possible during this period. Currently think those highest gusts will occur with the initial surge behind the frontal passage as the stronger flow aloft mixes down to the surface. Winds will subside slightly back into SCA thresholds (18-24kt with gusts to 25-30kt) after mid-day/early afternoon on Monday. SCAs will be needed during this time frame as it will take until later Monday evening or thereafter to decrease winds back to 10-15kt and below any criteria. Beyond this system, high pressure will linger over the region through late week with much improved boating conditions.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630- 631-654-656.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630-631-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632- 634-638-658.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-638-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650- 652.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652.

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Wachapreague
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Sun -- 04:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:20 AM EST     4.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:34 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:51 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:30 PM EST     3.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wachapreague, Wachapreague Channel, Virginia, Tide feet

Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:59 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:11 AM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:52 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:58 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:28 PM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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