Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hardinsburg, KY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 8:33PM Monday August 19, 2019 11:50 PM EDT (03:50 UTC) Moonrise 9:59PMMoonset 9:42AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hardinsburg, KY
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location: 37.6, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 192331
afdlmk
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
731 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Updated aviation discussion...

Short term (this evening through Tuesday)
updated at 305 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Hot and muggy tomorrow with potential for strong to severe
storms...

it's another hot one out there. Obs coming in from southern indiana
and central kentucky show widespread low 90s, with a few areas
inching into the mid 90s in central kentucky. Dewpoints in the upper
60s and low 70s are pushing the heat indices into the low 100s. Some
very narrow mesoscale boundaries are showing up on satellite where
weak convergence has led to some towering CU and even a few short
lived showers and thunderstorms in central ky near the i-75
corridor. Expect coverage for the remainder of the afternoon to be
very isolated and mainly confined to central kentucky.

After the Sun GOES down, we should see the diurnal CU dissipate and
give way to mostly clear skies. Expect most of the overnight hours
to remain dry, though a few models hint at some isolated showers and
storms developing in our northern tier of southern indiana counties
close to sunrise. Will keep the forecast dry for now, but something
to potentially watch.

Any showers and storms that develop to our north should dissipate by
mid morning. Another hot and muggy day looks to be in store, though
we could be dealing with some potentially stormy weather in the late
afternoon. Many models are in excellent agreement of an MCS bowing
segment developing in iowa during the early morning hours tomorrow
and progressively tracking through the midwest into the ohio valley
during the daytime hours. The environment ahead of this system will
be supportive of severe weather in the midwest, though some
uncertainty exists on its severity by the time it arrives into our
region. Most models bring it into southern indiana by about 21z
during peak heating instability, which theoretically would be a
favorable time for storm severity... But a few of the high-res
models actually weaken the line of convection as it enters southern
indiana. Given the environment in place, would tend to think that
the line would still pack a punch when it arrives. The main threats
would be damaging wind gusts, though large hail would be possible in
some of the more discrete cells ahead of the line or stronger
embedded cells within the line. As it progresses into central
kentucky, it should weaken as daytime heating is lost and the
nocturnal inversion transitions the convection from surface based to
elevated. The SPC day 2 outlook looks to cover the threat well in
our area, though would not be surprised to see some of the higher
probabilities expanded southeastward in future updates.

Long term (Tuesday night through Monday)
updated at 255 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
unsettled weather is expected for much of the mid-week period as a
broad upper trof digs into the great lakes and much of the eastern
conus. A series of disturbances will bring multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, but the specific timing remains a bit
uncertain. Still look for the best chance of precip to be Wednesday
night and Thursday as a sfc boundary hangs up over the ohio valley.

Not too impressed with svr potential in this time frame, but slow
storm motion and an increasingly juicy atmosphere will support a
threat for at least localized flooding.

The front is slow to depart Thursday night Friday, so we'll hang on
to chance pops in this time frame. Will carry the highest chances
across south central kentucky as the deeper moisture and forcing
start to be suppressed.

For the weekend, the medium-range models continue to dry out with
each run, as upper trofiness and sfc high pressure over the great
lakes start to win out. However, the in-house model consensus hangs
on to solid chance pops all weekend. Given the lack of QPF in the
models and the ongoing drought, will write this off to too many
older wet solutions going into the blend. Will limit pops to a
diurnally-driven 20-30% chance, mainly focused across south-central
kentucky.

Wednesday appears to be the last hot day for a while as the
southeast CONUS ridge really starts to break down from there. The
weekend will feature temps several degrees below normal, and with
dewpoints dropping down to near 60, Saturday in particular could
turn into real chamber of commerce weather, especially in indiana
and northern kentucky.

Aviation (00z TAF issuance)
updated at 730 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019
vfr conditions are expected for much of the TAF period with sfc high
pressure and upper level ridging over the region. The next taf
concern will come tomorrow afternoon evening as a complex of storms
dives southeast into southern in central ky. MVFR conditions and
gusty winds can be expected with any t-storms tomorrow. Winds are
expected to become light vrb or westerly overnight. SW winds 6-8 kts
are expected for tomorrow.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Short term... Dm
long term... Ras
aviation... Ams


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Knox, KY34 mi1.9 hrsW 310.00 miFair78°F72°F82%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFTK

Wind History from FTK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------Calm----CalmCalmCalm--SW4--SW44SE4--S7W4W6W5NW4W4W3
1 day agoS3CalmS3CalmS3--CalmSW3SW3S3--S4S5SW10SW7SW8
G15
SW6S7S6S6SW5SW7W6Calm
2 days ago--Calm--SE3CalmNW3--CalmCalmCalm--SW5W3W7SW5CalmNW3SE3S7S7S6S5S4S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.