Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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|Sunrise 7:43AM||Sunset 5:26PM||Friday December 6, 2019 1:22 AM EST (06:22 UTC)||Moonrise 2:37PM||Moonset 2:07AM||Illumination 69%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hardinsburg, KYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLMK 060531 AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1231 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019
. Updated Aviation Discussion .
Forecast Update. Updated at 925 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019
Warm advection pattern setting up over the Mississippi Valley ahead of an upper wave currently kicking through the OK/TX Panhandle. Mid- level cloud shield is thickening over southern Missouri, but very little precip reaching the ground yet.
As the southerly flow develops through a deeper layer overnight, we'll see clouds thicken and lower over the Ohio Valley, with precip expanding from west to east just before daybreak. This is reflected faily well in the previous forecast, but we have made some minor tweaks to the hi-res data to show a bit slower arrival of precip, so AFM/PFM will be updated while we let the zone forecasts ride as-is.
Short Term. (This evening through Friday) Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019
Afternoon satellite and observations reveal mostly clear skies with temperatures ranging from near 50 over the Bluegrass region to the upper 50s over the I-65 corridor and points west. A few 60s were found south of the Cumberland Parkway and west of the Natcher Parkway. For the next several hours, no significant weather is expected and temperatures will drop back into the 40s by sunset.
For tonight, mid-high level cloud cover will increase from west to east as a cold front pushes toward the region. Cloud cover should really ramp up after midnight with a few showers developing mainly west of I-65 just after midnight. After midnight, stronger and more widespread lift will overspread the region resulting in an expanding precipitation shield. Widespread light rain is expected to be in progress by sunrise on Friday. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s over the eastern Bluegrass with mainly lower 40s along and west of the I-65 corridor.
Moving into Friday, surface frontal boundary will work its way across the forecast area. Skies are expected to remain cloudy throughout the day with periods of rain showers moving through the region. The rain should diminish across southern Indiana and western Kentucky by early afternoon and then the rainfall is expected to be east of our forecast area by evening. Highs for Friday look to warm into the 48 to 52 degree range.
Total rainfall amounts for this event look to be between a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch. Slightly heavier amounts of QPF will be possible along the I-64 corridor from Louisville eastward through Lexington. It is possible that around a third of an inch could fall in that corridor.
Long Term. (Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 326 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019
Friday Night through Sunday Night .
Precipitation may be ongoing over the eastern forecast area early Friday evening but this should diminish rather quickly. High pressure cell to the northwest will quickly build into the region and bring colder air into the region by Saturday morning. Lows Friday night will be contingent on how fast we clear out late Friday night. For now, have generally gone with mid-upper 20s over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky (along and north of I-64). For central and southern Kentucky (WK/Jg Parkways south), have gone with mid-upper 30s. The warmest readings may be across southern KY where clouds linger the most.
High pressure will then overspread the region on Saturday during the day result in mostly sunny skies with highs ranging from the mid- upper 40s in most areas. Some lower 50s will be possible down across far southern KY (south of the Cumberland Parkway). By Saturday night, the high is forecast to be off to our east and we'll get back into a return flow type pattern. Lows Saturday night will range from the lower-mid 30s over southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky. Across south-central Kentucky, lows will likely average in the mid-upper 30s.
Return flow will continue on Sunday with skies becoming mostly cloudy. Some of the models hint at some weak isentropic lift during the afternoon/evening hours in areas west of I-65. Therefore have kept a slight chance of showers in the forecast for our western areas. Highs should average in the low-mid 50s in most places, though a few upper 50s to near 60 down along the KY/TN border region. Lows Sunday night should remain generally in the mid-upper 40s.
Monday through Thursday .
Moving into Monday, well advertised upper trough axis will drop into the central US with associated surface cold front pushing into the region from the northwest. Deep southwest flow out ahead of the system will transport a decent amount of moisture into the region. The frontal boundary and strong synoptic scale lift will result in widespread precipitation developing across the region throughout the day. Just ahead of the front, we could see a few embedded thunderstorms moving across the region. The pressure gradient isn't forecast to be a strong as in previous systems we've seen, though it will likely be a breezy day. Cold front is then forecast to surge through the region Monday night with cold air pouring into the region. We'll see daytime highs in the mid-upper 50s with a few places pushing toward 60. However, we expect temperatures to fall by 25-30 degrees in the evening and overnight period with readings falling into the low-mid 30s by Tuesday morning. Depending on how fast the cold gets into the region, there is a chance that some of the precipitation may end as a little bit of light snow. As of this writing, this does not look to be impactful, but we'll continue to watch it over the next few days. Rainfall amounts on Monday will likely average between one half and one inch.
Partly cloudy but cold conditions are expected for Tuesday with highs in the 35-40 degree range. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the upper teens and lower 20s. For Wednesday, will be watching for a weak system swinging through the upper trough axis which should be centered over us. In the 05/12Z guidance, the Euro and CMC show this feature passing to our north on Wednesday, while the GFS is generally dry. With the multi-model consensus keeping things dry, have trended the forecast in that direction for now. However, may have to revisit this time frame in later forecasts as the models get a better handle on the small features. Wednesday will be a cold day though with highs only topping out in the lower 30s over southern Indiana and most of Kentucky. Some mid 30s look possible over southern KY (south of the Cumberland Parkway). High pressure looks to hold just to our north on Thursday with highs remaining generally in the mid-upper 30s. A few 40s may be found across far southern KY.
End of Next Week and into the Weekend .
Looking further down the road into the end of next week and into next weekend, we could see the development of an eastern US storm system. The overall teleconnection pattern isn't one that is screaming cold as we'll see a +PNA/+AO/+NAO pattern. The EPO looks to be mainly negative for much of next week, but then transitions to more of a +EPO by the weekend. In the upper levels, we'll have a ridge in the western US that may amplify with another ridge over New England. In between, a deepening trough axis looks to be in the vicinity of the MS river valley. As that trough amplifies, there is the possibility of surface cyclogenesis over the western Gulf with the storm then lifting northeast along the eastern US coast. The Euro has been showing this solution for the last 34-36 hours and has decent support from its ensemble.
The overall pattern could bring a cold air damming event to the Mid- Atlantic states, but that is highly dependent on the timing of the features moving through. Though the cold air damming would ultimately depend on the surface high pressure placement in New England. For the Ohio Valley, its just too early to speculate on the evolution and track of this storm system. The overall pattern over North America is highly dependent on what happens upstream over the north Pacific and Alaska. There has been much volatility in the solutions up that way from the models from one run to another. However, from a pattern recognition standpoint, this time frame certainly bears watching over the next week.
Aviation. (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019
Ceilings will gradually thicken and lower as moisture increases ahead of an incoming cold front this morning. Rain is expected to increase in coverage, especially during the daylight hours.
The front will cross the region this afternoon, accompanied by patchy rain and MVFR ceilings. The front will bring a wind shift from southwest this morning to north by this evening, though speeds will be under 10 kt. High pressure building in from the Midwest will clear skies out overnight.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . None. KY . None.
Update . RAS Short Term . MJ Long Term . MJ Aviation . 13
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|Fort Knox, KY||34 mi||27 min||S 5||10.00 mi||Overcast||46°F||32°F||59%||1019 hPa|
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