Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Coal City, WV
May 2, 2024 12:29 PM EDT (16:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:25 AM Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 2:27 AM Moonset 1:03 PM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 021612 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1212 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend today into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms as it washes out over the area this weekend. Active next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1207 PM Thursday...
Temperatures have reached the lower 80s late this morning.
With plenty of sunshine and near calm flow, expect temperatures to climb into the upper 80s. However, record temperatures will still few degrees from being tied or broken. Previous forecast remains on track.
As of 630 AM Thursday...
The few areas of fog then developed across portions of the area this morning should dissipate in the next couple of hours this morning. The near term forecast generally remains on track, with no significant changes needed at this time.
As of 130 AM Thursday...
An upper level ridge remains over the area today while a frontal boundary - initially located near the northwest fringe of the CWA - is lifted further north as a low moves out of the Central Plains and approaches the Great Lakes later today. Dry low-level air should allow dry conditions to persist across the area today, though some mid to high level clouds may continue to drift overhead.
Ridging begins to slide east tonight as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. While quiet weather should linger through the night, a gradual increase in cloud cover is expected to occur ahead of the front.
After a mild morning, daytime highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s in the lowlands and 70s to 80s along the mountains. Tonight will be mild again with lows likely to be in the 50s to 60s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 AM Thursday...
Sustained periods of dry periods are elusive in both the short and long term periods.
The short term does start dry, with mid-upper level ridging exiting ahead of a southern stream short wave trough and surface cold front approaching from the west. There are some model differences in whether these features roll into the area Friday midday through evening, or Friday afternoon and night. The latter would allow more dry time and daytime heating Friday, while the former brings clouds, showers and thunderstorms in earlier. The forecast sticks with the later timing.
Even so, some increase in cloud during the morning and midday, and modest dew points of around 60 or even lower, will likely contribute to modest instability Friday afternoon, with CAPE less than a KJ/kg. Given modest low to mid level flow/shear, thunderstorms are not expected to be especially strong, but they can produce heavy downpours and gusty winds in the middle Ohio Valley by late in the day.
As the system lifts northeastward through the area, the surface cold front washes out, stranding the area in southerly flow of very warm and increasingly humid air amid additional short wave ripples in the mid-upper level southwest flow. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday night through Saturday, and even into Sunday. The nearly saturated atmosphere will not be that unstable, but PW values could climb to 1.5 inches or higher, so heavy downpours are a good possibility. However, the growing vegetation and recent dry weather should minimize the potential for high water.
By later in the day Sunday, the short wave trough exits, giving way to ridging, lessening shower and thunderstorm coverage Sunday afternoon, compared with Saturday afternoon, at least across the middle Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably warm conditions continue Friday as mid-upper level ridging slowly works east of the area. While central guidance highs Friday are 10 to nearly 15 degrees above normal for early May, they are still comfortably below record highs for the date.
After a rain-cooled Saturday, perhaps not too unlike Tuesday, highs moderate a bit on Sunday given decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage. Nights remain unseasonably mild for this time of year.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1154 AM Thursday...
Active weather continues for the extended period as another shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the potential for flooding issues increasing during this period, particularly Tuesday onward.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 630 AM Thursday...
The few areas of fog that developed this morning will dissipate in the next couple of hours, then VFR conditions are expected across the area for the rest of the day. While VFR is expected to persist overnight, cloud cover should begin to increase out ahead of a slowly approaching front.
Light and variable winds are expected through the majority of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in rain and storms Friday night through Saturday, and in stratus and fog Sunday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1212 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend today into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms as it washes out over the area this weekend. Active next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1207 PM Thursday...
Temperatures have reached the lower 80s late this morning.
With plenty of sunshine and near calm flow, expect temperatures to climb into the upper 80s. However, record temperatures will still few degrees from being tied or broken. Previous forecast remains on track.
As of 630 AM Thursday...
The few areas of fog then developed across portions of the area this morning should dissipate in the next couple of hours this morning. The near term forecast generally remains on track, with no significant changes needed at this time.
As of 130 AM Thursday...
An upper level ridge remains over the area today while a frontal boundary - initially located near the northwest fringe of the CWA - is lifted further north as a low moves out of the Central Plains and approaches the Great Lakes later today. Dry low-level air should allow dry conditions to persist across the area today, though some mid to high level clouds may continue to drift overhead.
Ridging begins to slide east tonight as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. While quiet weather should linger through the night, a gradual increase in cloud cover is expected to occur ahead of the front.
After a mild morning, daytime highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s in the lowlands and 70s to 80s along the mountains. Tonight will be mild again with lows likely to be in the 50s to 60s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 AM Thursday...
Sustained periods of dry periods are elusive in both the short and long term periods.
The short term does start dry, with mid-upper level ridging exiting ahead of a southern stream short wave trough and surface cold front approaching from the west. There are some model differences in whether these features roll into the area Friday midday through evening, or Friday afternoon and night. The latter would allow more dry time and daytime heating Friday, while the former brings clouds, showers and thunderstorms in earlier. The forecast sticks with the later timing.
Even so, some increase in cloud during the morning and midday, and modest dew points of around 60 or even lower, will likely contribute to modest instability Friday afternoon, with CAPE less than a KJ/kg. Given modest low to mid level flow/shear, thunderstorms are not expected to be especially strong, but they can produce heavy downpours and gusty winds in the middle Ohio Valley by late in the day.
As the system lifts northeastward through the area, the surface cold front washes out, stranding the area in southerly flow of very warm and increasingly humid air amid additional short wave ripples in the mid-upper level southwest flow. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday night through Saturday, and even into Sunday. The nearly saturated atmosphere will not be that unstable, but PW values could climb to 1.5 inches or higher, so heavy downpours are a good possibility. However, the growing vegetation and recent dry weather should minimize the potential for high water.
By later in the day Sunday, the short wave trough exits, giving way to ridging, lessening shower and thunderstorm coverage Sunday afternoon, compared with Saturday afternoon, at least across the middle Ohio Valley.
Unseasonably warm conditions continue Friday as mid-upper level ridging slowly works east of the area. While central guidance highs Friday are 10 to nearly 15 degrees above normal for early May, they are still comfortably below record highs for the date.
After a rain-cooled Saturday, perhaps not too unlike Tuesday, highs moderate a bit on Sunday given decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage. Nights remain unseasonably mild for this time of year.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1154 AM Thursday...
Active weather continues for the extended period as another shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the potential for flooding issues increasing during this period, particularly Tuesday onward.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 630 AM Thursday...
The few areas of fog that developed this morning will dissipate in the next couple of hours, then VFR conditions are expected across the area for the rest of the day. While VFR is expected to persist overnight, cloud cover should begin to increase out ahead of a slowly approaching front.
Light and variable winds are expected through the majority of the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in rain and storms Friday night through Saturday, and in stratus and fog Sunday morning.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBKW RALEIGH COUNTY MEMORIAL,WV | 13 sm | 38 min | var 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 77°F | 50°F | 39% | 30.10 | |
| KBLF MERCER COUNTY,WV | 22 sm | 37 min | no data | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 48°F | 41% | 30.13 |
Blacksburg, VA,
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