Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Coal City, WV

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 5:07PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 12:03 AM EST (05:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:15PMMoonset 5:41AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coal City, WV
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location: 37.62, -81.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 100124 CCA AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION . CORRECTED National Weather Service Charleston WV 824 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Periods of rain tonight ahead of a cold front. Turning colder Tuesday with rain turning to snow in the evening. Dry and cold for Wednesday and Thursday. Next system approaches Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 812 PM Monday .

Have increased hourly temps for this evening as temps should not budge much as the WAA regime prevails. In fact, many locations are currently at their highest temps so far today. Also increased wind speeds for this evening, especially across the higher elevations, as the low level jet continues to strengthen. Finally, adjusted POPs for mid evening to account for latest radar trends. Essentially, lowered categorical POPs for SE OH down to chance/likely.

As of 557 PM Monday .

Introduced/increased POPs for early this evening for the southern and eastern CWA where rain is currently ongoing.

As of 100 PM Monday .

There should continue to be a bit of a lull heading into the early evening hours east and especially south of the OH River as rain continues across SE OH. The surface front will cross tonight with rain overspreading the remainder of the area again. I'm not expecting the rain tonight to amount to much as the region gets into the right front quadrant of the upper jet amid a lack of mid level forcing. It will remain mild and breezy at times with a stout low level jet lingering.

Surface front should be exiting the mountains just after sunrise. While temperatures will fall with frontal passage, the more meaningful CAA will be delayed several hours amid a sloped baroclinic zone. Meanwhile, an increasing H3 jet streak will pivot into the eastern Lakes with our area residing in the right rear quadrant of the jet for PVA. This combined with increasing H7-6 frontogenetic forcing should allow for an uptick in precipitation behind the surface front as the day progresses.

There continues to be some model disagreement on where this post frontal band of precipitation sets up which is critical as low level dry air will be trying to advect in from the west. This remains a low confidence forecast for tomorrow afternoon. Model trends target areas east of the OH River and closer to the mountains. All the while, temperatures in the lowest 5kft will continue to cool which should allow for rain to change to a period of wet snow. Accumulations will be hard to come by outside of the mountains as surface temperatures likely remain in the 34-35 degree range in Lowlands for the afternoon. Having said that, I could see some brief grassy coatings should rates become appreciable.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 240 PM Monday .

Strong synoptic forcing associated with the right rear quadrant of departing 180+KT H250 jet streak over the Eastern Great Lakes will be in place over much of the forecast area Tuesday evening. Models have sped cold air infiltration of the area Tuesday afternoon and suspect by beginning of the short term period will be seeing primarily snow as the precipitation type in all locations.

Remaining moisture in the wake of earlier surface frontal passage will be the big question. Models have been reasonably consistent hanging moisture back as the H850 front slows as it exits the forecast area during the evening. This should yield a fairly narrow corridor of enhanced snowfall with at least some overlap of upslope enhancement into the mountains. Generally thinking additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, perhaps slightly more along the highest ridges, mainly along a line from Grundy to Elkins with little to no additional accumulations elsewhere. Given wet and relatively warm ground conditions think there will be a struggle to accumulate much on road surfaces outside this narrow corridor of enhanced snowfall rates. May eventually need some snow advisories along this corridor but confidence in exact location is too low for any at this time and will just continue highlighting in the HWO for now.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 240 PM Monday .

Dry and cold conditions are expected behind the front Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs struggling to make it out of the mid 30s for the lower elevations and mid to upper 20s in the mountains both days. Overnight lows Thursday morning likely dip into the upper teens to lower 20s for the lower elevations and lower to mid teens in the mountains.

Southern stream system approaches the region late Thursday night into Friday morning with substantial warm nose at H850 developing in strong warm air advection. Likely to see at least pockets of freezing rain initially across our eastern slopes with cold air damming in place and surface temps below freezing through mid morning. Precipitation type is more of an unanswered question across the remainder of our southern counties . based on current timing may have a brief window of rain over subfreezing surface temps before some of the warmer air starts working down to the surface via downslope/mixing. More exposed surfaces (bridges, power lines, metal steps, etc) likely to be cold soaked, so even as surface temps rise slightly above freezing could still be picking up a little ice on those surfaces. Further north should see less issues with precipitation type with temps coming up above freezing prior to precip onset.

Rain continues much of the day Friday before slowly winding down through late Saturday morning. The remainder of the day Saturday and Sunday look dry with another system approaching late Sunday night.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 558 PM Monday .

VFR is expected to prevail for most areas this evening. A deterioration in flight rules is then expected late tonight and especially Monday morning.

Areas of -RA and sct -SHRA will continue to affect much of the region this evening. A gradual development of llvl CIGs will likely occur with VFR transitioning to MVFR during the night. Greater coverage of -RA is expected after midnight, with some lowering of VSBYs possible. A strong sfc cold front is prog to move from west to east across the region late tonight, reaching the Ohio River around 10z-ish, KCRW around sunrise/12z-ish, and the mountains by mid morning. Continued light precip development is likely to occur behind the front on Monday across primarily West Virginia. Thermal profile will cool during the day with -RA transitioning to -SN by/during the afternoon. CIGs likely to flirt with IFR Monday morning, before some improvements in the afternoon. However, VSBYs may be lowest in the afternoon if -SN develops.

Breezy SWrly sfc winds around 10 kts expected tonight, becoming westerly 10 to 15 knots Monday morning, then slowly relaxing in the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight. Low for Monday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precip impacts and ending of precip is rather low.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE TUE UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY . IFR possible Tuesday night and Wednesday in snow showers, most likely in the mountains.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . None. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . JP/30 NEAR TERM . RH/30 SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . RH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beckley, Raleigh County Memorial Airport, WV13 mi72 minSW 12 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F48°F77%1010 hPa
Pineville, Kee Field Airport, WV18 mi68 minno data10.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F53°F85%1011.5 hPa
Bluefield, Mercer County Airport, WV22 mi71 minW 19 G 2610.00 miOvercast and Breezy56°F50°F81%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKW

Wind History from BKW (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW8N6N7N6N5N5NE3N4N4N3Calm4N4CalmN5N6N5NE3CalmCalmCalmSE4SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Blacksburg, VA
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