Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilroads Gardens, KS
April 29, 2024 10:53 AM CDT (15:53 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:44 AM Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 12:40 AM Moonset 9:47 AM |
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 291008 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 508 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- The Fire Risk will be on the increase Tuesday and Wednesday.
- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (<15%) late Tuesday east of a Larned to Coldwater line. Should storms develop Hail 1-2" and strong gusty winds will be the main hazards.
- There is a slight chance for severe thunderstorms (15-30%)
late Wednesday east of highway 83. Hail larger than 2", strong damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible from the strongest storms.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Over the next 48 hours the ensembles are in good agreement and have run to run consistency with our first in a series of upper level troughs moving from the Pacific northwest into the Northern Plains Tuesday. As this system moves out into the plains a surface cold/cool front will drop south into western Kansas and a dryline will move east into south central Kansas by late day. West of this dryline warm and dry conditions can be expected Tuesday afternoon with the latest NBM mean humidity values already falling back to around 10 percent during the afternoon. Given this and that the forecast dew point several days out from the NBM often is too high there is little doubt about the dry conditions. Winds on the other hand are a bit more unclear based on the uncertainty of how far south this cold/cool front will move into southwest Kansas before stalling out late day. Lighter winds near this boundary will keep the wind speed below red flag warning criteria and given the surface boundary locations from the majority of the short term models it appears that this front will be far enough south to keep the winds in check across all of southwest Kansas. Still given the high fire risk due to the low humidity outdoor burning is discouraged.
In addition to the fire weather risk we will also be monitoring the potential for late day convection along the dryline cold front Tuesday evening. Once again will refer back to the agreement of the short term models with the surface boundaries and as a result it appears that should storms develop along the dryline/cold front then storm development will be near or east of Stafford, Pratt and Barber counties. Given the current small chances (<30%) for the dryline to be as far west as Stafford, Pratt and Barber counties will keep a mention of thunderstorms in the forecast for several hours Tuesday evening. If convection does develop then hail and gusty winds will be the main hazards from these storms before they move into central Kansas.
Over the next few days a warming trend can be expected across western Kansas. Much like yesterday the short term models are in good agreement with temperatures rebounding back into the upper 70s to lower 80s today with even some 90s possible on Tuesday.
The NBM guidance has been playing catchup with these warm temperatures and now they appear more reasonable now. The current NBM forecast has highs on Tuesday 90 degrees or greater along and south of a cold/cool front that will be moving into southwest Kansas during the day.
As the warm air spreads east today there will be some weak 850-700mb moisture transport and weak to no cin. This will likely give way to some increasing clouds late today but the HRRR even indicates a 10-20% chance for precipitation. Not overly excited about this chance even given the HRRR 0.01” chances late today but unable to completely rule out some virga or sprinkles.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
The ensembles midweek appear to be coming into better agreement with the timing of the next upper trough as it moves into the Four Corners Region Wednesday night. The largest differences between the ensemble clusters mid to late week is the strength of an upper level ridge that will be exiting the eastern Pacific and moving into the western United States.
As this next upper level trough approaches the West Central Plains mid week an area of low pressure at the surface will deepen across eastern Colorado allowing a moist south southeasterly flow in the lower levels to return to southwest Kansas. All the ensemble clusters are now showing a 60-90% chance for surface dewpoints to be >55F east of the dryline along with 50-70% chance for 30 knots or greater shear being present by 7pm Wednesday. Mean surface based CIN at 7pm Wednesday was less than 100j/kg and 50-60% of the ensemble clusters indicated 700mb temperatures near 10C. Keep in mind that these warm 700mb temperatures are not as impressive as last week given that highs expected on Wednesday will be in the 90s.
Despite many positive indicators from the clusters on the chance for thunderstorms along the dryline late Wednesday there are still a few negatives. Even with these negatives, the possible convection along the dryline, wherever it ends up, Wednesday evening is something that should be monitored closely.
Reason for the increased concern is that the shear may end up being better than what the ensembles forecast given the location of the right exit region of the upper jet and the deepening surface low over E/SE Colorado. We will also have to monitor if the surface winds end up being more back Wednesday evening than what is indicated across portions of south central Kansas as the low level jet develops. SPC outlook appears to be a good start but do not be surprised if the west ward extent changes as we get closer to the event and confidence improves. In addition, it is interesting to note the CSU-MLP, although missing a few model runs over the last few days, appears to be trending further west with its idea of severe weather potential. The CAPE ECMWF EFI of 0.6 to 0.7 east of Dodge City has also shifted westward. This does not mean severe weather will occur but if we are able to get storms then the probability for very large hail and strong gusty winds will be possible. A few tornadoes can not be ruled out.
West of wherever this dryline ends up by late Wednesday it is not severe weather but fire weather which will be a concern.
Much like conditions on Tuesday it will be just as dry if not more so and the winds are expected to be stronger than on Tuesday given the falling surface pressures across eastern Colorado. Latest mean ensemble chances of humidity values <20% and wind speeds >15mph west of a Liberal to Sublette line is >70% which is a good indicator where the potential for dangerous fire conditions may occur. This will be monitored closely but at this time will hold off on any type of headlines given uncertainty that far out on where the dryline will be.
Thursday will be another day where the dryline location will be the key to the potential for storms and severe weather. At this time it appears that the dryline will be east of Pratt and Medicine Lodge so currently expect the risk for severe weather to be east of the area as the upper level trough moves across the West Central High Plains. There will be a few more opportunities for precipitation until the upper wave passes late week but in addition to opportunities for precipitation a cold frontal passage will bring some cooler, more seasonal, temperatures briefly back to southwest Kansas. This cool down, possibly a few tornadoes such as it is, will not last long.
Temperatures are expected to start to rebound back into the 80s over the weekend as an upper level ridge builds east across the Rockies and into the Central United States.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 506 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Light winds will become south at 10 to 15 knots between 15z and 18z today as a trough of low pressure at the surface begins to develop over eastern Colorado and an area of high pressure moves east southeast. After sunset the winds will become more southeasterly as a low level jet at 40 to 45 knots develops across southwest Kansas after midnight. BUFR soundings indicating VFR conditions and tonight with the possible exception of Liberal area. This area will need to be monitored given that a few of the short term models are beginning to show some +90% boundary humidity values returning as the south southeasterly low level winds return/increase.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 508 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- The Fire Risk will be on the increase Tuesday and Wednesday.
- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (<15%) late Tuesday east of a Larned to Coldwater line. Should storms develop Hail 1-2" and strong gusty winds will be the main hazards.
- There is a slight chance for severe thunderstorms (15-30%)
late Wednesday east of highway 83. Hail larger than 2", strong damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible from the strongest storms.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Over the next 48 hours the ensembles are in good agreement and have run to run consistency with our first in a series of upper level troughs moving from the Pacific northwest into the Northern Plains Tuesday. As this system moves out into the plains a surface cold/cool front will drop south into western Kansas and a dryline will move east into south central Kansas by late day. West of this dryline warm and dry conditions can be expected Tuesday afternoon with the latest NBM mean humidity values already falling back to around 10 percent during the afternoon. Given this and that the forecast dew point several days out from the NBM often is too high there is little doubt about the dry conditions. Winds on the other hand are a bit more unclear based on the uncertainty of how far south this cold/cool front will move into southwest Kansas before stalling out late day. Lighter winds near this boundary will keep the wind speed below red flag warning criteria and given the surface boundary locations from the majority of the short term models it appears that this front will be far enough south to keep the winds in check across all of southwest Kansas. Still given the high fire risk due to the low humidity outdoor burning is discouraged.
In addition to the fire weather risk we will also be monitoring the potential for late day convection along the dryline cold front Tuesday evening. Once again will refer back to the agreement of the short term models with the surface boundaries and as a result it appears that should storms develop along the dryline/cold front then storm development will be near or east of Stafford, Pratt and Barber counties. Given the current small chances (<30%) for the dryline to be as far west as Stafford, Pratt and Barber counties will keep a mention of thunderstorms in the forecast for several hours Tuesday evening. If convection does develop then hail and gusty winds will be the main hazards from these storms before they move into central Kansas.
Over the next few days a warming trend can be expected across western Kansas. Much like yesterday the short term models are in good agreement with temperatures rebounding back into the upper 70s to lower 80s today with even some 90s possible on Tuesday.
The NBM guidance has been playing catchup with these warm temperatures and now they appear more reasonable now. The current NBM forecast has highs on Tuesday 90 degrees or greater along and south of a cold/cool front that will be moving into southwest Kansas during the day.
As the warm air spreads east today there will be some weak 850-700mb moisture transport and weak to no cin. This will likely give way to some increasing clouds late today but the HRRR even indicates a 10-20% chance for precipitation. Not overly excited about this chance even given the HRRR 0.01” chances late today but unable to completely rule out some virga or sprinkles.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
The ensembles midweek appear to be coming into better agreement with the timing of the next upper trough as it moves into the Four Corners Region Wednesday night. The largest differences between the ensemble clusters mid to late week is the strength of an upper level ridge that will be exiting the eastern Pacific and moving into the western United States.
As this next upper level trough approaches the West Central Plains mid week an area of low pressure at the surface will deepen across eastern Colorado allowing a moist south southeasterly flow in the lower levels to return to southwest Kansas. All the ensemble clusters are now showing a 60-90% chance for surface dewpoints to be >55F east of the dryline along with 50-70% chance for 30 knots or greater shear being present by 7pm Wednesday. Mean surface based CIN at 7pm Wednesday was less than 100j/kg and 50-60% of the ensemble clusters indicated 700mb temperatures near 10C. Keep in mind that these warm 700mb temperatures are not as impressive as last week given that highs expected on Wednesday will be in the 90s.
Despite many positive indicators from the clusters on the chance for thunderstorms along the dryline late Wednesday there are still a few negatives. Even with these negatives, the possible convection along the dryline, wherever it ends up, Wednesday evening is something that should be monitored closely.
Reason for the increased concern is that the shear may end up being better than what the ensembles forecast given the location of the right exit region of the upper jet and the deepening surface low over E/SE Colorado. We will also have to monitor if the surface winds end up being more back Wednesday evening than what is indicated across portions of south central Kansas as the low level jet develops. SPC outlook appears to be a good start but do not be surprised if the west ward extent changes as we get closer to the event and confidence improves. In addition, it is interesting to note the CSU-MLP, although missing a few model runs over the last few days, appears to be trending further west with its idea of severe weather potential. The CAPE ECMWF EFI of 0.6 to 0.7 east of Dodge City has also shifted westward. This does not mean severe weather will occur but if we are able to get storms then the probability for very large hail and strong gusty winds will be possible. A few tornadoes can not be ruled out.
West of wherever this dryline ends up by late Wednesday it is not severe weather but fire weather which will be a concern.
Much like conditions on Tuesday it will be just as dry if not more so and the winds are expected to be stronger than on Tuesday given the falling surface pressures across eastern Colorado. Latest mean ensemble chances of humidity values <20% and wind speeds >15mph west of a Liberal to Sublette line is >70% which is a good indicator where the potential for dangerous fire conditions may occur. This will be monitored closely but at this time will hold off on any type of headlines given uncertainty that far out on where the dryline will be.
Thursday will be another day where the dryline location will be the key to the potential for storms and severe weather. At this time it appears that the dryline will be east of Pratt and Medicine Lodge so currently expect the risk for severe weather to be east of the area as the upper level trough moves across the West Central High Plains. There will be a few more opportunities for precipitation until the upper wave passes late week but in addition to opportunities for precipitation a cold frontal passage will bring some cooler, more seasonal, temperatures briefly back to southwest Kansas. This cool down, possibly a few tornadoes such as it is, will not last long.
Temperatures are expected to start to rebound back into the 80s over the weekend as an upper level ridge builds east across the Rockies and into the Central United States.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 506 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Light winds will become south at 10 to 15 knots between 15z and 18z today as a trough of low pressure at the surface begins to develop over eastern Colorado and an area of high pressure moves east southeast. After sunset the winds will become more southeasterly as a low level jet at 40 to 45 knots develops across southwest Kansas after midnight. BUFR soundings indicating VFR conditions and tonight with the possible exception of Liberal area. This area will need to be monitored given that a few of the short term models are beginning to show some +90% boundary humidity values returning as the south southeasterly low level winds return/increase.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS | 8 sm | 61 min | SSW 17G26 | 9 sm | A Few Clouds | 64°F | 41°F | 42% | 29.96 |
Dodge City, KS,
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