Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilroads Gardens, KS

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 8:24PM Friday August 23, 2019 11:18 PM CDT (04:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:33PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilroads Gardens, KS
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location: 37.64, -100     debug


Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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Fxus63 kddc 232327
afdddc
area forecast discussion
national weather service dodge city ks
627 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019

Updated aviation discussion...

Update
Issued at 513 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
have updated the forecast to extend the areal coverage of the
ongoing flash flood watch. Heavy rain has been occurring over
central kansas in the hays-larned-st john corridor this afternoon.

This will increase the potential for flooding later tonight when
if additional heavy rainfall occurs over the same area.

Short term (this afternoon through Saturday night)
issued at 1150 am cdt Fri aug 23 2019
remaining stratus was eroding at midday, leaving behind a cumulus
and stratocumulus field through this afternoon. SE winds will
increase in strength this afternoon, gusting over 30 mph at times,
as shortwave approaches from the nw, and the pressure gradients
tighten. Moisture and instability will be maintained by this sely
boundary layer flow, setting the table for a round of convection
tonight. Until then, despite increasing cape, most locations will
remain dry with triggering mechanisms limited. That said, with
unexpected convection firing along the i-70 corridor late this
morning, moist unstable sely flow may generate a storm or two just
about anywhere through 7 pm.

High confidence of MCS development over SW ks tonight, as a
shortwave approaches from the west, rotating around the primary
trough in the northern rockies. Thunderstorms are expected to be
along the co ks border by 7 pm, and CAPE shear will support some
supercell structures with this initial activity. As such, the
threat for hail up to 2 inches is expected to remain west of us
83. The threat for damaging winds to 70 mph will increase this
evening west of us 283, as bowing segments evolve with the
evolving mcs. Included a mention of damaging winds in the grids
this evening across the western zones. The quandary is... It
appears quite possible there may be two mcss, one that focuses on
wfo goodland's area and the i-70 corridor, and another that
focuses on the southern zones, south of us 50, near the oklahoma
border. This bimodal distribution is a real possibility, as
several models are suggesting it. For this reason, pop grids were
maintained in the likely category (as opposed to definite) as some
areas may very well be missed by the rainfall. All that said, 12z
nam and the global gfs ECMWF are very wet tonight into Saturday
morning, and model signals with excessive QPF are apparent.

Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be common where storms decide
to track, with localized amounts of 4-5 inches possible. After
collaborating with neighboring wfos, issued a flash flood watch
from 7 pm Fri through 7 am Saturday for the NE zones. Soils are
saturated from heavy rains in this region over the past week, and
rapid efficient runoff is expected tonight.

Initial shortwave and accompanying MCS will be exiting the eastern
zones early Saturday. With residual outflow boundaries, carried
pops in the grids throughout daylight Saturday, as suggested by
the gfs ECMWF qpf fields. Secondary shortwave arrives in the nw
flow Saturday afternoon, and will ignite another round of
convection Saturday evening. Convective evolution Saturday will
depend much on what happens tonight, but model consensus is the
second MCS will favor central kansas Saturday night. The eastern
zones (east of us 283) will be most at risk for strong to severe
convection and locally heavy rain late Saturday.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 207 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
secondary shortwave and attendant MCS is shown by 12z ECMWF to be
across central kansas, impacting the eastern zones, early Sunday.

This complex will track SE into SE ks late Sunday, with modestly
increasing heights, a clearing sky, and dry conditions across sw
ks. With the added sunshine and a modest increase in thicknesses,
slightly warmer temperatures are expected Sunday afternoon, with
highs in the upper 80s lower 90s across the central western zones.

This is just about normal for late august, with thunderstorm
outflow likely keeping the eastern counties in the mid 80s.

Trough is consistently progged by the models to swing through the
northern plains on Monday, with an accompanying cold front and
northerly wind shift expected in SW ks. Most organized convection
initiated by this boundary is expected to focus SE of SW ks, but
it is close enough to keep some modest pops across the SE zones
Monday evening night. Temperatures slightly cooler Monday, lower
80s north to lower 90s south.

Continued cooling is expected on Tuesday, as weak canadian high
pressure builds southward through the central plains. With modest
cool and dry advection, Tuesday afternoon will be pleasant, with
afternoon highs only in the lower 80s per 12z mex guidance and the
nbm MAX t grids. With the incoming airmass of canadian origin,
dewpoints will ease back down through the 50s, for a refreshing
preliminary taste of fall. Believe nbm pop grids in the Tuesday
time frame are overdone, with 12z ECMWF solution dry through
daylight Tuesday, and mex pops <15%.

Expect temperatures to remain mild Wednesday, in the low to mid
80s, as weak cool surface high pressure holds onto control. 12z
ecmwf and mex guidance show a warming trend in afternoon
temperatures Thursday and Friday, followed by the next, stronger
cold front Friday night.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 626 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
thunderstorms continue to develop across central and southwest
kansas and farther west into eastern colorado. Storms will
continue to develop through this evening with clusters of storms
impacting the terminals through the evening and overnight hours.

Main impacts will be outflow wind gusts up to 50 knots. Most of
the thunderstorm activity will be moving east of the terminals
after 06-08z. MVFR to ifr stratus is expected to develop as the
storms move out with CIGS lifting through the morning hours on
Saturday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Ddc 64 84 64 90 80 50 50 20
gck 63 85 62 89 80 30 30 0
eha 63 93 62 93 40 10 20 0
lbl 63 90 64 90 80 20 40 0
hys 66 80 64 83 70 50 50 20
p28 69 84 66 86 70 50 60 40

Ddc watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch through Saturday morning for ksz030-031-
043>046-064>066-079-081.

Update... Gerard
short term... Turner
long term... Turner
aviation... Gerard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dodge City, Dodge City Regional Airport, KS10 mi2.4 hrsESE 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F64°F82%1011.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDDC

Wind History from DDC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE10SE13SE13
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1 day agoNE5N4N4NE6N4NE3NE4N10NE8E8S10S12S11S17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Dodge City, KS (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dodge City, KS
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.