Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 3:44 AM   Moonset 3:49 PM

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FXUS63 KDDC 041045 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 545 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous severe weather outbreak expected Monday afternoon and evening, mainly east of a WaKeeney to Ashland line.

- The greatest uncertainty regarding Monday's severe weather event is timing of the onset of dangerous storms and how far west initial high-end severe storms will develop.

- Most of the NWS Dodge City area of responsibility will most likely be clear of severe weather risk by early evening Monday as storms move east deeper into central and south central Kansas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Widespread precipitation event -- the first good soaking rain over a large portion of our forecast area in quite some time -- continued in the pre-dawn hours across much of southwest into central and south central KS. Some initial automated gauge reports were showing three-quarters to a little over an inch of rain right where we needed it most across quite a few of our counties along/west of U283 and along/south of U50. The rain will continue to pull away from our region this morning leaving in its wake a cooler air mass and remnant low cloud. The past few runs of the HRRR model have shown a bit longer period broken-overcast stratus cloud across the mid section of our forecast area (centered around DDC), keeping temperatures from rising much above the mid/upper 50s this afternoon.
The latest official forecast calls for mid 60s for just about the entire forecast area, but some of this may need to be lowered if the clouds hang on longer like the latest runs of the HRRR suggest.

Going into tonight and early Sunday morning, we will watch for another southern jet streak nosing into West Texas and western Oklahoma, which will foster another round of precipitation clipping our southeastern counties adjacent Oklahoma state line, which is where highest POPs will be (20-30%) in both the Tonight and Sunday 12-hr periods. Low level winds will veer around from east to southeast on Sunday as the much advertised Monday storm draws closer to the Rockies, inducing lower MSLP across Colorado late in the day.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Clearly, the focus of this time frame will be Monday's impressive storm and the likelihood of a volatile severe weather outbreak across much of the Central Plains late in the day and Monday Night.
Not much has changed in the overall forecast meteorological setting for Monday other than the fact that there still remains great uncertainty in when initial dryline storms will develop (early vs.
mid vs. late afternoon) and how far west the dryline will be when the first storms do develop. The ECMWF shows the dryline just east of DDC at 21Z Monday with 3-h QPF in the 21-24Z beginning just east of DDC. The high-resolution ECMWF deterministic run depicts multiple county-scale streaking of QPF in a southwest to northeast manner in the 3-h QPF field, which in classic spring severe weather patterns, is the numerical weather prediction highly suggesting individual severe local storm tracks (most likely supercells). Nearly all models show a classic "sickle" shape hodograph in the 0-2km AGL layer across a large swath of the warm, moist sector in Kansas into northern Oklahoma where surface dewpoints will be in the 64 to 68F range.

A dangerous severe weather outbreak, including high-end hail storms and long-lived significant tornadoes, is appearing more and more likely. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the areal coverage of 30% combined severe weather risk to include over half of the state of Kansas, including our eastern counties from Hays down to Coldwater and points east. This latest outlook also includes a large area of 10% probability of "Significant" severe weather -- defined by 75+ mph damaging wind gust, 2" or larger hail, and/or significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage potential). Any outdoor interests Monday afternoon and evening should have a plan of action in place in case storms threaten your activity(ies)/venues.

Once we get Monday's storm out of the way, we will be entering a fairly long break in severe weather risk, perhaps going well into the following week of May 12th as cooler and drier air will encompass much of the eastern half of the country.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 539 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The last of the rain cleared LBL and DDC terminals just prior to the onset of this TAF period, but remaining low stratus cloud will keep flight category MVFR with 1000 to 2500 foot BKN-OVC.
The stratus will slowly erode by late morning, with all terminals expected to be VFR by no later than midday. North wind will gradually decrease in speed down to around 10 knots by late afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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