DISCUSSION
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Midday satellite imagery depicted a clear sky with some fair weather cumulus across and near SW KS, beneath the northeast periphery of a midlevel 593 dm high centered near the Four Corners. Splendid late summer weather will continue this afternoon with light southeast winds, full sunshine, and temperatures ranging from upper 70s northeast to upper 80s southwest. Mostly clear tonight with light south winds, and sunrise Sunday temperatures in the 50s.

Models show lower tropospheric warming and improved mixing Sunday, with a net increase of about +3C at 850 mb, and 850 mb southerly flow increasing to about 20 kts. Warmer afternoon temperatures will result, warming through the 80s, with several southwest zone locales near 90 at peak heating.
A lee cyclone near 1004 mb near Denver will support south wind gusts near 30 mph Sunday afternoon, especially north and west of Dodge City. Monday appears virtually identical to Sunday; afternoon temperatures near 90 at 4 pm, south winds gusting near 30 mph. Continued sunny, breezy and warm Tuesday afternoon. The lower atmosphere will continue to warm Tuesday, and after several sunny warm breezy afternoons to dry out topsoils, lower to mid 90s will be common Tuesday afternoon. Indeed, 12z GEFS ensemble probability of temperatures greater than 90 is near 100% all zones Tuesday afternoon, and added about 2 degrees across the board to the NBM max T grid. Also, for Tuesday and much of the upcoming week, continued to lean the wind grids toward the 90%ile of the NBM in this upcoming extended elevated south wind regime.

Models remain consistent with a strong trough entering the Pacific Northwest Wednesday, and then into the Rockies and Great Basin Thursday. This synoptic evolution will ensure persistent elevated south winds will continue, gusting 40-45 mph at times, especially Thursday afternoon/evening. Medium range models suggest a surface low 992 mb or stronger on the northern high plains of Montana by 7 pm Thursday, with southerly 850 mb winds as high as 50 kts. For now, increased wind/wind gusts in line with the 90%ile of the NBM. Further warming, well into the 90s, is probable Friday, as the 850 mb warm plume arrives on the plains, south of the northern Rockies trough. Lots of warm summer afternoons still ahead of us. All grids are dry for all zones through this forecast, and SW KS will be dry for the foreseeable future. Tropical cyclone development is now expected along the Texas Gulf coast Tuesday through Wednesday, and into the lower Mississippi valley Thursday, which will effectively block any significant moisture transport into the central plains. Just the latest reason to keep the dry forecast going through next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. South to southeast winds aoa 12 kts will increase slightly to 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts during the late morning through early evening, but weaken back down to ~12 kts through 06Z Monday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.