Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montezuma, KS
July 3, 2024 12:41 AM CDT (05:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:21 AM Sunset 9:07 PM Moonrise 2:55 AM Moonset 6:34 PM |
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 030520 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated severe storms on Tuesday hold a severe threat across most of SW Kansas.
- Widespread thunderstorms Wednesday currently only amount to a marginal risk via the SPC.
- Independence Day, and the rest of the forecast period, will be mostly dry and cool with highs in the 80-90s.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
As the upper-level trough persists overhead, the surface cold front has stalled across SW Kansas with benign showers along it. CAMs have had it moving east later in the afternoon although comparatively it has moved much slower. This casts doubt on convection developing along the front after leaves the forecast area. This comes in two parts, both that the convection could develop sooner and take place over the forecast area, and second that the convection may not initiate and develop as expected. Barber county almost unanimously has some convection across CAMs, but the strength and coverage is under large scrutiny.
Later into Tuesday, most CAMs have more discrete cells moving into Kansas from Colorado. Almost every 12Z CAM had a strong supercell signal somewhere in the western zones. However, the latest 18Z HRRR run has no such signal despite consistently holding one through the 17Z runs. Lingering cloud cover from the stalled front may be to blame for this. Regardless, this creates more difficulty in an already uncertain storm setup. Plenty of environmental ingredients exist for storms that are able to develop with the exception of shear being quite marginal. NAMNST forecast soundings have CAPE >2500 J/kg and 0-3 SRH >150 m2/s2 near the KS/CO border. The severe threat will primarily be wind and hail, but tornadoes can not be ruled out if a strong supercell can develop and maintain itself.
After the severe threat into the overnight, CAMs show a spattering of precipitation, with ensembles placing a >25% chance for accumulation across the majority of SW Kansas. Around 1Z, another weaker cold front is expected to move through the forecast area via ensembles. The cold front will again shift the winds to being from the NW. CAMs have convection initiating along most of the front, with very little precipitation behind it. Our northern zones boast the best chances (>40% from ensembles) for precipitation.
As the last of the convection in our northern zones moves out and the cold front passes over SW Kansas a slightly cooler airmass takes residence over the forecast area. Additionally, the wind shift to the NW after the cold front passage will result in CAA further adding to cool temperatures on Independence Day. Ensembles have highs in the 80s across the majority of SW Kansas.
Friday through the rest of the forecast period will be mostly dry and host seasonably cool temperatures as our previous upper-level trough pattern gives way to a more ridge dominated regime. This pattern assists in transporting cool, dry air from the far northwest CONUS. Long range ensembles have highs in the 70s and 80s and do not show a meaningful accumulation signal (>0.1) other than Sunday night into Monday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR flying conditions will prevail across all terminals for the majority of this TAF cycle, save for the last few hours at HYS when MVFR stratus moves in. Current easterly winds aoa 12 kts will gradually veer to southeasterly by early afternoon Wednesday, then become light and variable around sunset.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated severe storms on Tuesday hold a severe threat across most of SW Kansas.
- Widespread thunderstorms Wednesday currently only amount to a marginal risk via the SPC.
- Independence Day, and the rest of the forecast period, will be mostly dry and cool with highs in the 80-90s.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
As the upper-level trough persists overhead, the surface cold front has stalled across SW Kansas with benign showers along it. CAMs have had it moving east later in the afternoon although comparatively it has moved much slower. This casts doubt on convection developing along the front after leaves the forecast area. This comes in two parts, both that the convection could develop sooner and take place over the forecast area, and second that the convection may not initiate and develop as expected. Barber county almost unanimously has some convection across CAMs, but the strength and coverage is under large scrutiny.
Later into Tuesday, most CAMs have more discrete cells moving into Kansas from Colorado. Almost every 12Z CAM had a strong supercell signal somewhere in the western zones. However, the latest 18Z HRRR run has no such signal despite consistently holding one through the 17Z runs. Lingering cloud cover from the stalled front may be to blame for this. Regardless, this creates more difficulty in an already uncertain storm setup. Plenty of environmental ingredients exist for storms that are able to develop with the exception of shear being quite marginal. NAMNST forecast soundings have CAPE >2500 J/kg and 0-3 SRH >150 m2/s2 near the KS/CO border. The severe threat will primarily be wind and hail, but tornadoes can not be ruled out if a strong supercell can develop and maintain itself.
After the severe threat into the overnight, CAMs show a spattering of precipitation, with ensembles placing a >25% chance for accumulation across the majority of SW Kansas. Around 1Z, another weaker cold front is expected to move through the forecast area via ensembles. The cold front will again shift the winds to being from the NW. CAMs have convection initiating along most of the front, with very little precipitation behind it. Our northern zones boast the best chances (>40% from ensembles) for precipitation.
As the last of the convection in our northern zones moves out and the cold front passes over SW Kansas a slightly cooler airmass takes residence over the forecast area. Additionally, the wind shift to the NW after the cold front passage will result in CAA further adding to cool temperatures on Independence Day. Ensembles have highs in the 80s across the majority of SW Kansas.
Friday through the rest of the forecast period will be mostly dry and host seasonably cool temperatures as our previous upper-level trough pattern gives way to a more ridge dominated regime. This pattern assists in transporting cool, dry air from the far northwest CONUS. Long range ensembles have highs in the 70s and 80s and do not show a meaningful accumulation signal (>0.1) other than Sunday night into Monday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR flying conditions will prevail across all terminals for the majority of this TAF cycle, save for the last few hours at HYS when MVFR stratus moves in. Current easterly winds aoa 12 kts will gradually veer to southeasterly by early afternoon Wednesday, then become light and variable around sunset.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KDDC
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDDC
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDDC
Wind History graph: DDC
(wind in knots)
Dodge City, KS,
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