Montezuma, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montezuma, KS

June 20, 2024 12:59 AM CDT (05:59 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 9:06 PM
Moonrise 7:23 PM   Moonset 3:43 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montezuma, KS
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Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 200400 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1100 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers will gradually decrease in coverage for the remainder of Wednesday.

- Much below normal temperatures Wednesday.

- A rapid warming trend is expected Thursday, through this weekend, into early next week, with little if any chance of rain.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Dual pol storm total precipitation radar estimates are in the 4-7 inch range, on a widespread basis, from southern Ford county, and southwest to the Oklahoma border, including Stevens, Seward and Meade counties. Rainfall estimates peak near 12 inches across southeast Stevens county, southeast of Hugoton.
Radar depicted continued rain shower regeneration across these highly saturated zones; as such flood warnings remain in effect, with many roadways inundated. Airmass across SW KS is cloudy, cool and overturned from previous convection, which will keep any instability rebound limited in scope, to the 1000-1500 J/kg range, at best, through afternoon. As such, any redevelopment of strong convection, capable of additional heavy rainfall, is expected to be limited in coverage. Also the risk for any storms producing marginally severe wind/hail is very limited, and the 5% marginal wind/hail probability from SPC was removed as of 1630z. Will retain the flash flood watch for the southern counties adjacent to Oklahoma through 6 pm, where additional showers are probable, any of which will go directly to runoff in such a saturated environment. Still, models depict subsidence taking more control through evening, so the threat of additional heavy rainfall in flooded impact areas is low. Temperatures will struggle into the 70s this afternoon, given stratus, recent rainfall, and light east wind components.

Tonight will be muggy and humid, given light SEly winds maintaining moisture flux with dewpoints in the 60s, along with standing water helping keep the lower boundary layer near saturation through sunrise Thursday. Areas of fog or mist are possible early Thursday, but opted to not include this in the grids for now. Temperatures will be in the 60s sunrise Thursday. Forcing for ascent appears weak, and grids are necessarily low. Most locations will remain dry.

Much more typical June weather will return rapidly Thursday for the first day of summer. Strong midlevel high pressure ridging over the eastern U.S. Wednesday will expand westward onto the plains Thursday, with rising 500 mb heights, climbing over 590 dm. All models show strong warming at 850 mb, with a net warming of about +5C, easily supporting afternoon temperatures to bounce back to the 80s. Subsidence is even more established Thursday, supporting a dry forecast. South winds will increase noticeably, sustained near 20 mph, with gusts near 30 mph.

The warming trend will continue into the coming weekend, with afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s Saturday. 12z GEFS ensemble members still support a 30% probability of temperatures over 100 across the favored Red Hills Saturday afternoon, but wet topsoils and standing water from recent rains will slow this warming process down somewhat.

The first heatwave of the summer season is becoming apparent early next week, with 12z MEX/NBM guidance cranking out high temperatures near/over 100 Monday and Tuesday. A strongly subsident regime is forecast by late Monday, as a 596 dm upper high establishes over Arizona/New Mexico. 12z GEFS probability of 2m T > 100 is already near 90% across SW KS Monday afternoon.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Some residual MVFR cigs from the recent rains will continue through the overnight pd. VFR is expected for the majority of tomorrow. The lee trof will deepen tomorrow with SE to S winds 15-25 kt with gusts around 30 kt through the daylight hours.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS 22 sm67 minE 069 smA Few Clouds70°F66°F88%30.23
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Dodge City, KS,




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