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FXUS63 KDDC 262243 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 543 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Updated Aviation

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe convective threat will exist on Saturday afternoon to early evening mainly east of US Highway 183.

- Critical fire weather conditions will develop Saturday afternoon for locations west of US Highway 283.

- Cooler conditions(temperatures <80 F) expected for Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Past morning upper air data along with latest water vapor imagery reveals a highly amplified pattern across the CONUS. In particular, a deep upper trough is seen over the west and central portions of the country while a downstream ridge is sitting over the Great Lakes and southern Appalachians. Embedded within this upper trough are two distinct closed lows with one currently sliding northeast across Nebraska while a second is positioned across the Intermountain West.
This first upper low has an associated surface cyclone across Nebraska with a warm front extending southeast into the mid Mississippi River Valley and a weak Pacific cold front/dryline extending south into OK and TX.

While deep boundary layer moisture via surface dewpoints in the 60s exists ahead of this front/dryline across the eastern half of Kansas, much drier/stable air is currently in place over western and central Kansas this afternoon. With that stated, the progression of the upper trough axis has allowed a small band of showers to develop over western KS behind the front. Nonetheless, the alignment of the front/dryline farther east has effectively shifted the threat for severe convection well east of western and central Kansas through tonight. This will leave a generally quiet evening to overnight for the region as temperatures drop into the 40s to 50s for lows.

Saturday will then turn active yet again as the aforementioned upper low over the Intermountain West today...slides east into the Central Great Plains by early evening. This will have the affect of not only stalling the progression of the front and deeper boundary layer moisture farther east, but as a surface low deepens over western KS by Saturday morning, higher theta-e air will advect back west to form a sharp dryline somewhere between US Highways 183 and 283.
Further, a warm front will also develop roughly along the I-70 corridor with deeper boundary layer moisture behind east winds advecting into northwest KS to northeast CO. Behind the dryline critical fire weather conditions will develop as deep thermal mixing will create very low humidity values and gusty southwest winds during the afternoon hours. However, the main story is the risk of severe convection in the afternoon to evening hours. Although inhibition via an EML is largely eroded by mid to late afternoon, the CAMS vary considerably with extent, if any in the case of the HRRR, of storms that develop. Overall confidence in convective develop is much higher east of US Highway 183 but will maintain a low-end chance as far west as 283. MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg along with effective layer shear of 50+ kt will support supercells initially, although a veer-back vertical wind profile may promote growth into line segments. Needless, to say significant hail and even an isolated tornado threat will exist. Additionally, the area north of the warm front will also see convective development closer to the upper low with parameters less favorable for large hail but more so for tornado development. Severe convective threat will slide into eastern KS by mid to late evening with only some lingering showers closer to the upper cyclone to deal with during the overnight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Sunday will then look somewhat similar to today as the upper low moves from the Central Plains...northeastward into the Upper Midwest. This will push a front through the region with cooler temperatures (probability of exceeding 80 degrees under 30% for most of the area) and more stable conditions invading western and central KS. With that stated, there will be some lingering showers mainly on the back side of the cyclone along the I-70 corridor through the day (precip chances <50 percent) but amounts will be light.

Monday into Tuesday will then be transition days as ENS and GEFS means indicate the next upper wave digging into the Intermountain West to Northern Plains by mid week. This will help deepen the lee trough again with deeper boundary layer moisture advecting back into the region as seen with ensemble probability of exceeding 50 F Td at 50+ percent. Additionally, Monday and Tuesday will be dry as temperatures warm back into the 80s (probability of exceeding 80 degrees above 70%). For Wednesday through Friday, while specific details are not worth detailing at this point, the approach of this wave and an associated front will bring the next chance of storms.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 543 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle. Elevated W/SW winds at 2230z will diminish quickly to light and variable at sunset as gradients weaken, and then light easterly overnight. A new area of surface low pressure will deepen near Syracuse Saturday afternoon, resulting in strong south winds at GCK/DDC/LBL after 18z Sat, with more SEly winds at HYS. Isolated thunderstorms are possible on a strong dryline near 00z Sun, but with no confidence of impacts to the airports, left this set of TAFs dry for now.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A strong dryline will develop between US Highway 183 and 283 on Saturday. Behind this boundary critical fire weather conditions will develop as deep thermal mixing will drop humidity levels down to under 15 percent while southwest winds with gusts of 25 mph or higher exist. A fire weather watch has been issued for this region from roughly 18 to 00 UTC.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.

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