Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Irvington, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:08PM Sunday September 19, 2021 9:07 AM EDT (13:07 UTC) Moonrise 5:55PMMoonset 4:11AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 637 Am Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot and light chop.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to less than 1 foot and light chop late.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop, increasing to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to less than 1 foot and light chop after midnight. A chance of showers.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop. A chance of showers.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ600 637 Am Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure centered to the north remains place through early this week before sliding offshore ahead of a strong cold front. That front approaches the area late Wednesday, before crossing the waters on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irvington, VA
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location: 37.65, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 191108 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 708 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front drops across the region later today. High pressure builds across the area today and tonight, before sliding offshore Monday through midweek. A strong cold front crosses the area Thursday into Thursday night, bringing markedly cooler and drier air to the region for late this week into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 355 AM EDT Sunday .

Latest analysis reveals weakening high pressure centered from the VA piedmont up into the interior northeast. A second, stronger area of high pressure was analyzed over Ontario and Quebec into northern New England, and is behind a weak sfc cold front currently lingering along/just north of the Mason Dixon line. Aloft, upper level ridging is in place from the lower Mid- Atlantic into the Ohio Valley early this morning.

Early morning obs showing quite a few areas of ground fog/low stratus, most dense to the south of I-64. Expect vsbys will remain diminished in spots, with some locally dense fog formation likely, especially central and SW zones to around/just after sunrise this morning. Any lingering fog eventually erodes by mid- morning. Thereafter, expect another seasonable and moderately humid afternoon across the local area. Sfc high to the north will build across the northeast today, sending the weakening front to our north toward the local area, with the front dropping across the area this aftn into this evening PWs remain near or just above seasonal norms. in the 1.50 to 1.75" range, amd there will be some marginally unstable instability present. However, no substantial trigger or forcing for ascent will exist. As such, don't see much more than an isolated shower or two, mainly across the Tidewater into NE NC this aftn. Any QPF would be low and quite localized, but should average on the order of a couple of hundredths or less. Will call it partly to mostly sunny (less cloud cover over the north by afternoon) with highs in the low to mid 80s. Showers push SSW into north central/central NC this evening, with a gradually clearing sky expected. Could see a recurrence of late night stratus/fog late tonight, mainly in our SW piedmont into NE NC. Otherwise, mild with lows again in the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 350 AM EDT Sunday .

High pressure slides offshore of the northeast/northern Mid- Atlantic coast late Monday into Tuesday, signaling another modest warmup Mon/Tue. Models show a slow increase in moisture Tue aftn as the flow becomes onshore. Minimal instability through the period, as mid/upper ridging lifts over the eastern seaboard, so will not carry any thunder wording. However, did carry low chc PoPs for scattered afternoon and evening showers mainly along/west of I-95 corridor. Lows in the 60s. Highs Mon 80-85. Highs Tue upr 70s-lwr 80s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 350 AM EDT Sunday .

Aforementioned upper ridge pushes offshore Tuesday night, out ahead of a potent upper trough dropping out of the northern plains toward the upper midwest on Wednesday. As we've noted over the past couple of days, GFS remains on the fast side of guidance, with the CMC/ECMWF on the slower side, with the 00z/UKMet about middle of the road. The latter blend closes off the trough into an upper low across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. As you'd imagine with a dynamic, deep closing off to our NW, 00z model timing of the frontal passage has slowed a bit. Frontal passage now modeled to be after 00z/Thu on into the day on Thursday.

As far as sensible weather goes, expect some overrunning showers will be possible late Tue night and Wednesday as the warm front lifts north across the area. The front then slowly crosses the area Thursday into Thursday night. Still some uncertainty to wade through as we get closer. Again, GFS timing would clear out Thu a bit faster than the remaining guidance. Still hedged toward WPC frontal timing, Which is heavily ECMWF/CMC/UKMet weighted.

Cool canadian high pressure then builds into the area late in the day Thu into Thu night, with clearing from SW to NE Thu night into Friday Dry, much cooler. and dare we say Fall- like . for Fri/Sat. Highs Fri/Sat in the 70s, lows in the 50s to near 60 se. Typically cooler spots could easily see the upper 40s Fri and Sat nights.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 710 AM EDT Sunday .

Sub-VFR (MVFR to IFR, LCL LIFR) conditions over the VA piedmont into south central VA at sunrise this morning. A cold front near the Mason-Dixon line will slowly sink south toward the area this morning, and wl drop through the region later today. CIGs/VSBY will recover to VFR all sites through 12-14z. Some showers are possible over Hampton Roads area (mainly W-SW of KPHF/KORF) after 18z, coincident with frontal passage. However, with little moisture not anticipating much more than some passing clouds (4-6 KFT AGL) and some isolated shower activity. Areal coverage of any showers looks to be far too low to warrant mention in TAF at this point. The biggest change will be a switch in wind direction to the north this aftn.

Outlook: Some additional late night fog/low stratus Sunday night, with another quick return to VFR Monday morning. VFR conditions then persist Mon thru Tue night, as high pres dominates. Moisture slowly increases by mid week ahead of a strong cold front, which crosses the area early on Thursday.

MARINE. As of 400 AM EDT Sunday .

A high threat of rip currents is expected today for the southern beaches (VA Beach/Currituck). A moderate risk is likely for the northern beaches with waves around 3 ft with winds becoming NE this afternoon.

Weak high pressure was centered over the area and into NC this morning, while stronger high pressure was centered over the northern Great Lakes, pushing south and east. Winds were generally SW to NW around 10 kt or less over the waters, with waves on the the Bay generally around 1-2 ft and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft.

High pressure pushing down from the north later today will result in a more northerly and northeasterly flow later this morning and through the afternoon. Winds will become NE everywhere by this afternoon and remain NE tonight and Monday as high pressure remains in place just to our north. Winds increase to 10 to 15 kt by this afternoon especially from Cape Charles north. Winds gradually become E 10-15 kt Mon night, then SE Tue night through Wed. Winds speeds remain around 10 to 15 kt with seas 2-4 ft Sun through Wed, waves on the Bay 1-2 ft. Conditions will remain sub SCA through Tuesday.

A strong cold front approaches the waters from the W-NW late Wednesday into Wednesday night, before crossing the area by late Thu. Models disagree some with the exact timing of the front, however, the pressure gradient looks to really tighten ahead of the front late Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night resulting in a strong southerly flow which could result in SCA conditions Wednesday afternoon. SCA conditions will likely persist Thursday into early Friday as the front pushes through and winds become northwest behind the front. Winds should start to decrease Friday night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . ESS/MAM SHORT TERM . MPR/MAM LONG TERM . MPR/MAM AVIATION . MAM MARINE . AJB/JAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 12 mi43 min NNE 12 G 18 76°F 79°F1 ft1020.4 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 21 mi97 min WSW 1 68°F 1020 hPa68°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 24 mi49 min ENE 8 G 13 76°F 79°F1020.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 24 mi49 min NNE 14 G 15 1020.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 27 mi43 min NNE 16 G 19 74°F 79°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 28 mi49 min N 8 G 8.9 75°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 29 mi49 min NW 7 G 8 75°F 79°F1019.6 hPa
44072 33 mi43 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 77°F 78°F1 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 34 mi49 min ENE 8.9 G 13
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 41 mi49 min NNE 6 G 8.9 75°F 78°F1019.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi49 min NW 8 G 9.9 79°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 45 mi55 min N 8 G 14 74°F 78°F1020.6 hPa
44087 46 mi41 min 78°F1 ft
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi49 min NNE 7 G 11 74°F 79°F1020.6 hPa
CHBV2 47 mi49 min NW 7 G 8.9 76°F 1018.8 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 47 mi55 min NW 7 G 8 76°F 1020.1 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi49 min NNW 6 G 7 76°F 1020.1 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 49 mi49 min 78°F1020 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA19 mi72 minN 0 mi68°F67°F98%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW3N4W5N3N4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN5N4N5N4N4N7NE5NE7
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2 days agoSE5S3N3S6S5E6SE9E6E7NE5E6CalmNE3CalmCalmN3NE4NE4NE5NE3N4N3N4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Orchard Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Orchard Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:16 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:39 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:38 PM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.410.60.30.10.10.40.81.21.51.71.61.41.10.70.40.20.10.30.71.11.51.8

Tide / Current Tables for Urbanna, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Urbanna
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:32 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:57 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:54 PM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.51.20.80.40.20.10.30.61.11.41.61.71.51.20.80.50.20.10.20.611.41.7

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