Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Irvington, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:57PM Saturday August 15, 2020 2:56 AM EDT (06:56 UTC) Moonrise 1:26AMMoonset 4:39PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 1257 Am Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..E winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1257 Am Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Tropical storm kyle tracks away from the coast overnight with no impacts for the local waters. High pressure builds northeast of the region tonight into Saturday. Another weak area of low pressure tracks across and off the coast Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irvington, VA
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location: 37.65, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 150538 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 138 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. A trough of low pressure and a slow moving front across the area, will result in unsettled weather tonight through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 945 PM EDT Friday .

Late evening weather analysis reveals low pressure (now TS Kyle) well offshore of the region and continuing to move away. Meanwhile, another (weak) surface low was located over Tennessee/nrn Alabama. A shortwave trough aloft was also located in the vicinity of the surface low. Locally, diurnal weakening of showers/tstms has occurred, with an area of mainly light to moderate rain (w/ some isolated heavier downpours) situated WNW-ESE in the vicinity of the I-64 corridor. There are still some thunderstorms across north-central NC (near Raleigh) that are near a frontal boundary. Winds are mainly N-NE (5-15 mph) across the local area with temperatures in the 70s. Isolated to scattered showers will likely persist through much of the night across the SW two- thirds of the forecast area, with mainly dry conditions overnight across the VA Northern Neck/Lower MD Ern Shore. Latest CAMs depict a general diminishing trend with respect to pcpn coverage overnight (except perhaps across the far SW). However, there is still a threat for localized flooding through ~04z/midnight in any localized heavy downpour (a couple Flood Advisories are currently in effect). Cannot rule out a couple instances of patchy fog across the VA Piedmont/interior NE NC late. Lows range from the upper 60s W/NW to low-mid 70s SE.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 300 PM EDT Friday .

Central and Eastern VA have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall and potential for flash flooding in Day 2. A very unsettled weather pattern continues this weekend. A weak upper trough slowly approaches from the west Saturday as the region falls into the entrance region of a weak upper jet late Saturday into early Sunday. This combined with an east-west oriented front slowly lifting north will allow for another round of showers and storms during the day on Saturday into Saturday night. Most areas may remain dry for a time Saturday morning into early afternoon, but showers and a few thunderstorms will be on the increase through the afternoon and evening especially across VA and NC. Portions of southern VA and most of NC is in a marginal risk for severe storms Saturday afternoon. There will be enhanced helicity in the vicinity of the front as it slowly lifts north and with low LCLs any updrafts which are able to establish themselves could rotate and pose a threat of an isolated tornado to damaging wind.

Again the main threat will be heavy rain and flooding late Saturday into early Sunday. With precipitable water values at or above 2 inches, improving upper support and a boundary slowly lifting north there is good support for a significant heavy rain event. On average the region could see 1 to 3 inches of rain, however, some locations along and just north of the front could see even higher totals. Flood Watches will likely be needed for at least a portion of the area late Saturday-early Sunday due to the very saturated grounds, low FFG values and potential for heavy rain.

Drier conditions move in Sunday later afternoon and Sunday night as the surface trough finally moves off the coast. Monday looks to be one of the driest days in the forecast with a continued drier NW wind. Slightly cooler (but still muggy) this weekend due to the widespread rain/cloud cover. Have highs ranging from the upper 70s across the NW to the mid/upper 80s SE on both Saturday and Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 330 PM EDT Thursday .

Upper level low pressure will be centered near/just east of the Hudson Bay from early-mid next week, as the associated upper trough axis digs into the Great Lakes and northeast. The upper trough axis then eventually elongates south-southwestward to the MS River Valley/GOMEX by the middle to end of next week. Unfortunately, this means the unsettled pattern will stay with us through much of next week (especially Wed-Fri). Tuesday looks to be the least active day (lowest PoPs from Tue-Fri) with PoPs in the 25-40% range. Then, expect (mainly diurnal) convection to increase in coverage once again from the middle to end of next week. As a result, have high chc PoPs for much of the area during the aftn/evening hours from Wed-Fri. Am not expecting as much heavy rainfall potential as the precipitable water values will not be as high as they are now, but localized flooding will be possible each day given wet antecedent conditions. Otherwise, temperatures should be seasonable with highs in the mid-upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 140 AM EDT Saturday .

Mainly a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions at the TAF sites to start the forecast period. Showers remain widely scattered across the area, thus the continued mention of VCSH in the forecast. Showers early this morning are fairly light, with minimal reductions in visibility expected. Generally expect the sites to linger around MVFR through much of the forecast period with the exception of SBY where VFR likely prevails through midday. A slow moving boundary likely stalls near the VA/NC border later today with the potential for heavier rainfall and MVFR to IFR north of this boundary in any heavier showers. Northeast winds between 5-10 knots will continue through the period.

Outlook: Numerous showers/thunderstorms continue Saturday night as deep moisture continues to move along the surface trough/cold front. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible for the remainder of the weekend.

MARINE. As of 915 PM EDT Friday .

Tropical Storm Kyle, located well east of the Virginia coast, continues to move ENE overnight and will pose no threat to the local waters. Winds are generally NE 10-15 kt for much of the waters and NNE 5-10 kt south of Cape Henry. Winds will generally remain steady through the night. A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over the southern waters near the VA/NC state line on Saturday. The pressure gradient will be tightened by the high pressure over New England, leading to ENE winds 15-20 kt north of Cape Henry. Seas will also build to around 5 ft over the northern coastal waters and therefore have maintained a SCA for the northern Atlantic coastal waters. Recent trends are hinting at a period of winds increasing by Saturday afternoon into the evening. The Ches Bay may approach SCA winds during this timeframe but will wait for 00z model guidance before considering any headlines for the bay.

An area of low pressure will track ENE across the southern CWA Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will increase to become ENE 15-20 kt north of Cape henry (including the Ches Bay). As the low moves offshore, winds will become N/NNW 15-20 kt for all coastal waters Sunday afternoon. SCAs will likely be needed for this time frame.

Northerly winds will diminish to 5-10 kt early next week as high pressure moves into the region.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . JAO NEAR TERM . ERI/JAO SHORT TERM . AJB/JAO LONG TERM . ERI/JDM AVIATION . AJB MARINE . CP/RMM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 12 mi27 min NNE 9.7 G 12 79°F 84°F1015.8 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 21 mi87 min Calm 73°F 1015 hPa73°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 24 mi57 min ENE 7 G 9.9 78°F 81°F1013.9 hPa (-0.4)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 24 mi57 min NE 9.9 G 14 1013.9 hPa (-0.4)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 28 mi57 min E 7 G 8.9 78°F 1013.9 hPa (-0.7)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 29 mi57 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 75°F 83°F1013 hPa (-0.8)
44072 33 mi27 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 78°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 34 mi57 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 41 mi57 min NW 1.9 G 5.1 74°F 84°F1013.4 hPa (-0.4)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi57 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 79°F
44087 46 mi31 min 83°F1 ft
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi57 min NNE 4.1 G 6 76°F 84°F1014 hPa (-0.4)
CHBV2 47 mi57 min ENE 5.1 G 7 77°F 1012.3 hPa (-0.5)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 47 mi57 min ENE 1.9 G 5.1 77°F 1012.7 hPa (-0.5)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi57 min ENE 5.1 G 7 75°F 1013.5 hPa (-0.6)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 49 mi57 min 82°F1013.3 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA19 mi62 minN 010.00 miOvercast74°F72°F98%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN4N4N3N3CalmE4NE6NE6NE8N6NE3NE5N3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5E4NE3NE7NE7CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmN3N4NE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmS5S6CalmS6SE7SE6W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Orchard Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Orchard Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:37 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:06 AM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:21 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:34 PM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.50.40.40.50.711.21.31.31.10.90.60.40.30.30.50.81.21.51.71.71.6

Tide / Current Tables for Urbanna, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Urbanna
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:55 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:22 AM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:39 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:50 PM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.80.60.40.40.40.70.91.21.31.31.20.90.70.50.30.30.40.71.11.41.61.71.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.