Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Harborton, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:55PM Friday September 25, 2020 8:25 PM EDT (00:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:51PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 706 Pm Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late this evening and early morning, then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Patchy fog late.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds 5 kt, becoming S in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 706 Pm Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure over the southeast will move off the north carolina coast on Saturday, while a trough of low pressure remains across the local area. High pressure then builds into the region for Sunday into Monday. A cold front will cross the middle atlantic by the middle to end of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harborton, VA
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location: 37.67, -75.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 251854 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 254 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over Georgia will move off the North Carolina coast on Saturday, while a trough of low pressure remains across the local area. High pressure then builds into the region for Sunday into Monday. A cold front will approach the Middle Atlantic by the middle to end of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. As of 235 PM EDT Friday .

Widespread light rain continues across the area, with the heaviest rainfall across the south. Not much has reached the ground yet across MD despite the widespread radar echoes. May see some breaks in activity later this afternoon into early this evening as some drier air aloft over western VA/NC moves overhead. However, do not think the breaks will be enough to warrant lowering PoPs especially this evening. In fact, as the upper trough approaches, the low level flow becomes more easterly and some weak wedging develops across the interior. This will lead to a inverted trough to develop over the interior which may allow for additional showers to develop overnight, especially as the steeper mid level lapse rates associated with the upper trough moves overhead. As such, will maintain the likely or categorical PoPs this evening across much of the areas, then reduce PoPs overnight especially across the west as the surface low and inverted trough is forecast to move closer to the coast. Could not completely rule out a rumble of thunder across southside VA and NE NC overnight due to MUCAPE values approaching 1000 j/kg ahead of the upper trough. Lows will only drop into the low to mid 60s despite temps today only in the upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 235 PM EDT Friday .

Will continue with chance PoPs on Saturday, especially east of I-95 due to easterly flow and continued troughiness near the coast. Best chance will be in the morning and especially closest to the low and associated warm front over far SE VA and NE NC. Cannot completely rule out showers continuing into the afternoon as the upper trough will remain overhead. Clouds hang in for much of the morning on Saturday but some breaks will develop in the afternoon. It will be humid with dew points in the lower 70s with highs in the upper 70s. With the excessive low level moisture Saturday night and perhaps some partial clearing as the trough exits, may see some patchy fog develop. Sunday looks generally quiet, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the south as return flow develops and heights start to build across the region. Highs on Sunday warm in the lower 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 235 PM EDT Friday .

South-Southwest flow aloft continues through mid week as a deep trough digs across the central United States. This will allow for increasing moisture as a cold front approaches from the west. The extended models disagree on the timing of the cold frontal passage across the area with the GFS being the fastest - bringing the cold front through as early as Wednesday while the ECMWF tends to stall the front nearby on Wednesday owing to a closed low developing over the central/southern plains before pushing it through the area by Friday. The timing of this front will be critical to temperature forecasts for mid/late week as the GFS would start the cooling trend as early as Wednesday, while the ECMWF holds off until Friday. For now, will go with a solution closer to the GFS/Canadian and forecast temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Monday/Tuesday (and somewhat humid), then slowly decrease temps Wed and Thu (mainly due to expected clouds and shower activity) before dropping them back into the 60s to lower 70s on Friday post frontal. Will keep the highest PoPs confined to Tuesday-Wednesday time period with chances PoPs everywhere during that time. Will keep slight chance of rain on Thursday, but this would need to be changed if the ECMWF solution verifies. Regardless, next weekend looks to be quite fall like again with temps expected below normal.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 200 PM EDT Friday .

Mostly VFR right now at the terminals, however expect sites to gradually fall to MVFR this afternoon as low level moisture increases. SBY may hold off dropping to MVFR until this evening as low level dry air hangs on the longest there. Easterly flow continues into tonight which should allow sites to drop to near or below IFR tonight into Saturday morning. Some improvement by Saturday afternoon although most likely only the MVFR.

Outlook . IFR VSBYS possible Saturday night due to patchy fog from residual low level moisture. Otherwise, no flight restrictions expected until Tuesday into Wednesday when a front approaches from the west bringing another round of rain.

MARINE. As of 250 PM EDT Friday .

Sub-SCA conditions to prevail through the next several days. Weak low pressure will be over the central Carolinas by tonight and will slowly lift NE and off the Carolina coast on Sat. E winds 5-10 kt late this aftn (except SSW over the northern coastal waters) will increase a bit to 10-15 kt by this evening and overnight while becoming SE all waters. Seas around 2 ft will build to around 3 ft across the southern waters for tonight. Waves in the Bay remain 1-2 ft, except up to 3 ft near the mouth of the Bay.

During Sat morning, winds will be southeast at 10-15 kt as the low pressure moves across eastern NC. The low weakens/transitions into a trough off the coast later Sat, allowing winds to shift to the E and then to the NW Sat night. Winds decrease Sunday to a light SE/S wind at 5-10 kt as the pres gradient relaxes. Seas will still be 2-3 ft as there will be some lingering swell while waves in the Bay drop to 1 ft.

Southerly winds increase Mon-Tue ahead of the next system, which should then pass through the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Still too much uncertainty in the models for a high confidence forecast past Tuesday. However, there is the potential that stronger winds arrive behind the next system late Wednesday into Thursday which would necessitate SCA headlines. SCA headlines for seas may also be needed for the northern coastal waters Tue-Wed as seas approach 5 ft in SSW flow.


AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MRD NEAR TERM . MRD SHORT TERM . CMF/MRD LONG TERM . MRD AVIATION . MRD MARINE . JDM/LKB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 9 mi55 min E 5.1 G 7 67°F 67°F1019.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 13 mi55 min E 8.9 G 9.9 1019.3 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 24 mi25 min SE 16 G 18 68°F 69°F2 ft1020.8 hPa (-0.6)
44089 27 mi29 min 69°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 36 mi55 min ESE 8.9 G 12 69°F
44072 40 mi35 min S 14 G 16 68°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 40 mi55 min ESE 7 G 8.9 68°F 68°F1018.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi55 min SSE 4.1 G 4.1 66°F 67°F1018.9 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 40 mi55 min SE 14 G 15 68°F
CHBV2 46 mi55 min ESE 13 G 16 68°F 1017.1 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 46 mi55 min ESE 8 G 12 68°F 69°F1018 hPa
44087 48 mi29 min 69°F2 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi55 min SE 9.9 G 11

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA3 mi2.2 hrsE 410.00 miLight Drizzle66°F57°F75%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW4CalmSW4SW4----S5SW4----CalmCalm--N3Calm--CalmCalm--E3E3--E4
1 day agoSW3CalmSW3SW3W3----W3W4W5W4Calm--SW4Calm------SW4W3SW3SW5CalmCalm
2 days agoW4W4W6--W4------W5----NW3Calm--NW3NW9NW9NW9--W10--W6W8SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:23 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:00 AM EDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:17 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:38 PM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.40.60.91.31.61.71.61.41.10.70.50.40.40.611.41.8221.91.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:40 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:21 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:34 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:59 PM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.70.81.11.51.821.91.81.51.10.90.70.70.91.21.622.32.42.32.11.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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