Friday, May29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Southside Chesconessex, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:19PM Friday May 29, 2020 9:27 PM EDT (01:27 UTC) Moonrise 11:11AMMoonset 12:29AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 637 Pm Edt Fri May 29 2020
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms until early morning, then a slight chance of tstms late.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 5 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 637 Pm Edt Fri May 29 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Southerly flow in advance of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front crosses the waters late Saturday. High pressure builds into the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southside Chesconessex, VA
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location: 37.72, -75.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 300009 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 809 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. Southerly flow in advance of a slow moving cold front approaching from the west will keep a moist and humid air mass in place through tomorrow. A cold front is then expected to sweep across the region Saturday evening, bringing cooler and drier air to the region Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. As of 345 PM EDT Friday .

Forecast remains on track this afternoon with high pressure well to the east in the Atlantic and a trough of low pressure to the north and west of the local area. Deep southerly flow continues this afternoon with temperatures warming into the 80s and dew points in the low to mid 70s.

Copious low level moisture and decent surface heating due to breaks in cloud cover over the area have allowed moderate surface-based and mixed layer instability to develop this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the region and they have maintained the Marginal Risk for severe storms today for all but the immediate coast with the main threats coming from strong straight line winds and isolated instances of severe hail. Some increase in deep layer wind shear will accompany the approach of the upper trough from the west late this afternoon/evening, though the better kinematics remain confined to areas farther north into PA and NY. Recent trend in hi-res guidance has been toward lower storm chances/coverage in the wake of the storms this afternoon. However, at least some chance for showers will linger into the late evening hours as subtle perturbations in the S/SW flow aloft interact with moisture already in place across the region. Conditions tonight remain warm and muggy with lows generally in the upper 60s and low 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Friday .

Upper level trough and surface cold front approach the region on Saturday with the cold front forecast to swing from NW to SE through the course of the afternoon and early evening. Ahead of this boundary, there is some potential for strong storms to develop from late morning into the afternoon. SPC has outlined a Marginal Risk area across SE VA and NE NC, primarily for damaging straight line winds and isolated instances of hail. The greatest chance for thunder will exist from roughly the Richmond metro south and east where 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will overlap 20-30 knots of deep layer shear. Temperatures will be able to warm into the low and mid 80s in the prefrontal airmass. The front should be through most of the area by Saturday evening with decreasing temperatures and humidity. Lows Saturday night fall into the mid 50s NW but linger into the low 60s SE.

All precip should be well offshore by sunrise on Sunday with skies continuing to clear from NW to SE through the morning. Much drier and pleasant on Sunday afternoon with highs rising into the low and mid 70s. Much cooler on Sunday night with lows in the upper 40s NW to low/mid 50s for the remainder of the area. Continued dry and comfortable on Monday with high pressure overhead, highs into the low 70s with mostly clear skies.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Friday .

High pressure and dry conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday. Several rounds of showers/storms are possible mid-late week as multiple shortwaves move through and NW flow dominates. Otherwise, expect a warming trend by mid-late week with the first 90F days of the year possible for many locations.

Low temps Mon night will be in the low 50s. Lows Tues night will be warmer in the low to mid 60s. Lows Wed and Thurs nights will range from the mid to upper 60s before cooling slightly to the low to mid 60s on Fri night. Highs Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to near 80F with mid 70s expected along the Eastern Shore. High Temps Wed and Thurs will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s with mid 80s expected along the Eastern Shore. High temps cool slightly to the mid 80s with upper 70s to lower 80s expected along the Eastern Shore.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 805 PM EDT Friday .

Just expect isolated to sctd showers this evening into the ovenight hours. So, mainly just have VCSH at the TAF sites through midnight, expect ECG where have -SHRA. Othewise, expect mainly VFR or MVFR CIGs at the TAF sites this evening into Sat evening, as cold front will approach and push into the region. Do mention isolated IFR CIGs at ECG and PHF possible into early Sat morning. Winds will be primarily S around 5 to 10 kt and will become SW tonight into Sat morning, then become W then NW or NNE Sat aftn behind the cold front. Sctd showers and tstms will be possible Sat aftn into early Sat evening, mainly over SE portions of the area (PHF/ORF/ECG).

OUTLOOK . Becoming drier Sat night and Sun, as the front pushes out to sea and high pressure begins to build in from the NW.

MARINE. As of 345 PM EDT Friday .

Southerly winds continue this afternoon. Generally 5-10 kts in the bay and 10-15 kts over the coastal waters. Waves in the bay 2-3 ft. Seas are 3-4 ft southern coastal waters and 3-5 ft northern coastal waters. SCA runs until 06Z for the elevated seas. S/SW flow on Saturday ahead of an approaching front from the west. Winds 5-15 kts. Waves in the bay 1-2 ft and seas 2-4 ft.

Front crosses the area waters late Saturday night with the winds turning to the N/NW behind the front. The brief CAA surge will likely result in SCA winds in the bay Sunday morning into the afternoon.

Low risk of rip currents this weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . TMG NEAR TERM . RHR SHORT TERM . RHR LONG TERM . RMM AVIATION . RMM/TMG MARINE . AJB/CMF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 10 mi57 min SW 8 G 11 73°F 77°F1014.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 17 mi57 min S 15 G 17 1015.2 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 26 mi39 min S 9.7 G 9.7 68°F1017.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi33 min S 5.8 G 12 68°F 1013.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi57 min SSW 15 G 18 73°F 76°F1013.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 39 mi57 min S 7 G 8
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi57 min SW 8 G 8.9 73°F 72°F1013.6 hPa
44072 43 mi37 min W 9.7 G 12 73°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi57 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi57 min S 8.9 G 12 75°F 69°F1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi32 minSSW 410.00 miFair74°F71°F93%1014.6 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA24 mi33 minS 710.00 miFair70°F69°F97%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE3E5E6--E3E4Calm--E3--E4----E5SE6E4E5SE8SE8E6SE6E4E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:21 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:06 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:01 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:30 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.71.11.622.22.11.91.51.10.70.40.30.40.71.11.51.921.91.61.30.90.5

Tide / Current Tables for Watts Island, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Watts Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:37 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:14 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:17 PM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:30 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.81.11.51.71.71.61.30.90.50.30.10.20.40.81.11.41.61.51.310.70.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.