Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southside Chesconessex, VA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:52PM Monday August 19, 2019 4:16 PM EDT (20:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:16PMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 331 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Isolated showers and tstms this evening.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 331 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure settles over the area through mid week. A cold front approaches from the west later in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southside Chesconessex, VA
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location: 37.72, -75.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 191946
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
346 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
Isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday as a weak trough
of low pressure will persist across the region. A stronger cold
front moves though the area late Thursday into Thursday night.

High pressure then builds into the area for the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 305 pm edt Monday...

scattered thunderstorms have developed over the piedmont through
the DELMARVA along the weak lee trough. Some of the storms are a
little stronger across the far north due to the proximity of the
weak upper disturbance noted on water vapor. Could not rule out
a severe storm or two late this afternoon into this evening due
to the strong dcape in excess of 1000 j kg and fairly steep low
level lapse rates. Expect these storms to continue through
early this evening then dissipate soon after sunset due to loss
of daytime heating. Otherwise, tonight will be mild but
generally clear with lows only in the low to mid 70s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
As of 305 pm edt Monday...

much of the same for the next few days. May see better activity
east of i-95 tomorrow as the models suggest a weak trough
extending SE across the area. This will serve as a focus for
shower storm development during the afternoon, with locally
heavy rainfall not out of the question due to the slow movement
of any thunderstorm activity and precipitable water values
around 2 inches. Shower storm activity will diminish Tue evening
then develop again mainly across the piedmont Wed aftn along the
lee trough. A stronger frontal boundary moves toward the area
Thursday which will serve as the focus for thunderstorms thu
aftn evening. Will go with 40 50 pops across the entire area
thu. Highs Tuesday will once again be in the low mid 90s, while
Wednesday Thu may be just a tad cooler due to a little more in
the way of cloud cover. However temps will still be in the lower
90s. Heat index values will once again top out in the 100-104
range on Tuesday.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 305 pm Sunday...

a potent area of low pressure (sfc-aloft) continues to slowly track
tracks across quebec Thu night-fri while the trailing cold front
approaches the region from the nw. Convection will likely be ongoing
through a good portion of Thu night as the front (slowly) crosses
the area. Model consensus has the front stalling across SRN va by
12z fri, while the 12z 19 GFS continues to forecast the front to
clear the area by late Fri am. On the other hand, the latest
ecmwf gem both have the front moving very slowly southward across
the area on Fri before clearing the area sometime this weekend. The
cold front potentially stalls (or very slowly moves southward) from
fri-next weekend. If the ECMWF gem solution verifies and the front
slowly moves across SRN portions of the CWA from Fri through the
weekend, this would lead to continued chances of scattered aftn-
evening convection across SRN va NE nc. Far northern portions of the
cwa likely remain dry next weekend (or see only isolated, diurnally-
driven showers tstms) as sfc high pressure over the great
lakes northeast tries to build toward the region. For now, went with
a model blend and have 20-50% pops on Fri Sat (highest S lowest n).

Dry comfortable wx prevails late sun-early next week as sfc ridging
continues to build over the area.

Highs mainly in the low-mid 80s through the extended period with
lows in the 60s (except around 70f in coastal SE va NE nc).

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
As of 300 am edt Monday...

expect mostlyVFR though the forecast period. Isolated
showers storms could impact sby and ric this aftn into this
evening which may cause brief flight restrictions but the
chances are not high enough to put into the terminal at this
time. Sby may see some 2sm br vsbys late tonight into early tue
morning as well.

Outlook: a trough will track across the area late Tue aftn into
wed morning, bringing a 20-40% chc of showers tstms. The chc
for showers tstms lessens wed, and then increases Thu as a cold
front approaches from the nw. The potential for showers tstms
could linger into fri, if the cold front slows down or stalls
over the region.

Marine
As of 300 pm edt Monday...

no headlines through mid week. S-sw winds will remain below 15 kt.

Waves 1-2 ft, seas 2-3 ft. A cold front approaches by later in the
week. Pressure gradient is expected to tighten ahead of the front
beginning later on Wednesday into Thursday. At this point winds
appear to stay below SCA but will be examined closely over the
coming days. Waves will still be about 1-2 ft but should see a
slight increase in seas to 2-4 ft. Models suggest the front should
clear the area on Friday which will result in a wind shift to a
northerly component.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tmg mrd
near term... Mrd
short term... Ajz mrd
long term... Eri
aviation... Tmg mrd
marine... Cmf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 10 mi46 min SSW 8.9 G 12 88°F 88°F1015.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 17 mi46 min 1016.5 hPa
44089 25 mi46 min 79°F2 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi52 min S 12 G 14 89°F 89°F1015.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 39 mi46 min S 12 G 14
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi52 min E 6 G 7 89°F 82°F1014.8 hPa
44072 43 mi26 min SSW 12 G 14 85°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi46 min SSE 11 G 12 85°F 1016.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi46 min Calm G 1.9
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi46 min SW 4.1 G 8.9 93°F 83°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi21 minS 810.00 miFair92°F77°F62%1015.6 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA24 mi22 minS 1310.00 miFair89°F73°F61%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5E5SE4SE6S4SE3CalmCalmSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmS4SE6S6S8
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1 day agoS5S7S9
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S5S6CalmCalmCalmCalmS5S6S6S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE7SE8SE7
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2 days agoE4SE6SE5SE7SE4S4S3SW3S5CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NW3W8SW3S5

Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
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Mon -- 02:44 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:12 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:09 PM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:33 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.92.22.22.11.81.30.90.60.50.50.81.31.72.12.22.21.91.61.20.90.70.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for Watts Island, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Watts Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:00 AM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:20 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:25 PM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.41.71.81.71.41.10.70.40.30.30.50.91.31.61.81.71.61.30.90.60.40.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.