Friday, December4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Southside Chesconessex, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:43PM Friday December 4, 2020 6:01 PM EST (23:01 UTC) Moonrise 8:33PMMoonset 10:43AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 329 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
.gale warning in effect from 1 am est Saturday through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt this evening, then becoming se 10 to 15 kt after midnight, becoming N 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 3 ft late. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. Rain in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft late.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 329 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure tracks northeast from the gulf coast states, reaching southern virginia after midnight, and then rapidly intensifying while pushing off the coast late Saturday morning. Weak high pressure builds in from the west on Sunday. Another low pressure system is expected to affect the region Monday into early Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southside Chesconessex, VA
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location: 37.72, -75.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 042133 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 433 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure system is forecast to track northeast from the Gulf Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic states tonight into Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 350 PM EST Friday .

Afternoon surface analysis shows 1026mb high pressure departing the region to the east while a surface low/trough takes shape near the AL/GA border. Aloft, a deep cut-off low is located over western TN and KY with a deep upper trough north of the Great Lakes. Temperatures range from the upper 50s NW to the low and mid 60s SE. Clouds continue to increase from the west ahead of the aforementioned surface low with mostly cloudy skies across the north and western sections of the region while a few breaks in the cloud cover remain across the SE.

A few light echoes are noted on radar this afternoon but surface observing sites have not reported any rain thus far. Moistening of the column is expected to continue this afternoon with gradually lowering clouds. Will show PoPs ramping up across the west late this afternoon as low pressure to the SW continues to organize. Upper cut- off low is forecast to phase with the trough in the northern branch of the jet this evening/tonight leading to rapid deepening of the surface low across the western Carolinas into central VA.

Models have come into relatively good agreement regarding placement, movement, and strength of low pressure crossing the area tonight. Aforementioned phasing of southern and northern branch jet disturbances will induce considerable deepening of the surface low across the region and result in an area of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall across the region tonight. The relatively fast motion of this system will tend to limit prolonged heavy rainfall. WPC has placed all our VA and MD counties in a Marginal Risk for heavy rainfall. While the threat for widespread flash flooding is low, there will be a potential for mainstem river flooding with local QPF combined with the QPF over the headwaters. We are forecasting a SW- NE swath of 1-2" across central VA with 0.5-1" for NE NC. Isolated totals of 2.5-3" are possible from near Richmond northeast into the Northern Neck and northern portions of the Eastern Shore.

Isolated strong to severe storms will also be a threat overnight with a rapidly deepening surface low resulting in very strong kinematic fields across the whole region. Instability will be the limiting factor with respect to the severe threat tonight as surface dew points will only increase to the upper 50s and low 60s across the far SE portion of the area resulting a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE late tonight. SPC has placed the southeastern quarter of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather with a Slight Risk just to our south across eastern NC. The strong wind fields will favor damaging wind gusts as the main severe hazard, however, a low tornado risk will exist ahead of the surface low where ageostrophic flow will serve to locally back the low level winds.

Temperatures are forecast to drop off this evening before rising a bit (into the upper 50s- 60F) over SE VA/NE NC tonight. Expect temps to fall into the low/mid 40s inland and upper 40s-low 50s near the coast by sunrise Saturday as the low exits and winds turn to the WNW- NW. Expect it to become breezy to windy (highest winds will be near the coast) for several hours Saturday morning-midday as winds turn to the WNW-NW. A Wind Advisory has been issued for coastal portions of VA Beach into the northern NC Outer Banks as well as the VA Eastern Shore and coastal portions of the MD Eastern Shore.

Skies clear from W-E on Saturday with highs ranging through the 50s. Remaining breezy into Saturday night with skies clearing from SW to NE. Overnight lows fall into the upper 20s NW with low 30s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 350 PM EST Friday .

Dry with slowly decreasing wind on Sunday. High temps top out in the mid 40s-around 50F. A series of potent shortwaves aloft will dive southward across the Mississippi Valley and toward the region Sunday evening. Model guidance is inconsistent at best regarding these features and their potential phasing with remnant troughing over the northeast CONUS. Model solutions range from low pressure forming well offshore with few if any impacts to the local area to weak low pressure forming near the region Sunday night and Monday resulting in the potential for P-type concerns. The deterministic/ensemble ECMWF is has been and continues to be the most amplified/phased and is therefore the most bullish with the potential for wintry precip Sunday night into Monday. The GFS and NAM are much more suppressed with the potential low track and have little in the way of wintry precip. In deference to the ECMWF and its ensembles, will maintain slight chance to chance PoPs Sunday night into Monday with a rain/snow mix along and west of I-95 after midnight. Temperatures warm after sunrise with only the far north/northwest close enough to freezing to warrant a rain/snow mix. Elsewhere, light rain showers are forecast. High temps Monday top out in the low to mid 40s with a few upper 40s and low 50s SE. Stay tuned as this portion of the forecast is likely to change as model consensus and resulting details become more clear.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 430 PM EST Friday .

Temperatures are expected to slowly rise each day from Tuesday to Friday, with mostly dry conditions. Aloft, there will be a trough over the eastern half of U.S. early in the week and a ridge over the the western half of the U.S., extending to the Canadian border. A shortwave trough will move into the Pacific northwest Tuesday, which will suppress the ridge out west and allow for the trough over the east to lift and it moves into the western Atlantic Ocean. This will bring us a gradual warming trend after a cold start to the work week.

A sfc low pressure is expected to be off the Mid-Atlantic/Carolina coasts Monday night. There may be a few rain (possible snow) showers remaining near the coast overnight as colder air filers in to the region from the north. Once the precip moves off the coast Monday night, expected a dry week. Low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday morning will be in the low to mid 20s inland to near 30 at the coast. Low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Thursday morning and Friday morning, with lows near 30 inland and near 40 along the coast. High temperatures will be below average on Tuesday, with possibly breezy conditions near the bay and ocean. High pressure builds over the area and each day of the week will be slightly warmer than the previous day. High temperatures will be in the 60s by next Friday.

AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 1245 PM EST Friday .

VFR conditions prevail through late aftn/early evening before flying conditions deteriorate. Mid to high clouds prevail across the north and west as of 1230 PM as moisture is starting to increase in advance of our next system. CIGs slowly lower today as low pressure currently over the Deep South strengthens as it tracks NE toward the local area. Some MVFR CIGs are noted across the SW portion of the area and these clouds will spread NE through the afternoon and could impact RIC later this afternoon. For now, have CIGs just above MVFR thresholds at RIC this afternoon. Mainly dry wx is expected through the day at all of the terminals (PoPs aob 25% through 00z) but included VCSH at RIC late this afternoon into the early evening. Winds are SW at ~10 kt. SW winds could gust to ~20 kt through early evening. Flying conditions deteriorate significantly from 00-06z as rain (perhaps heavy at times) overspreads the terminals as the deepening low tracks from wrn NC to south-central VA. IFR/LIFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs are expected at RIC/SBY, with prevailing MVFR CIGs/VSBYs at PHF/ORF/ECG during the moderate-heavy rain (mainly from 04-12z). There is a slight chc of a tstm at ECG from 06-10z Sat.

Rain ends from SW to NE Saturday morning-midday as the low moves offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula. Winds quickly turn to the WNW-NW in the wake of the low, with gusts of 30-40 kt (highest near the coast) expected from 09-15z Sat. Conditions rapidly improve to VFR during the day on Saturday as drier air quickly filters into the area.

Outlook: High pressure and drier conditions return on Sunday. There is a small chc of pcpn on Monday as an area of low pressure tracks to the south and east of the terminals.

MARINE. As of 350 PM EST Friday .

S/SW winds this afternoon 10-15 kts. Waves in the bay 1-3 ft. Seas 2- 3 ft over the southern coastal waters and 4-5 ft over the northern coastal waters where a SCA continues until 00Z. Low pressure over the SE will track NE across the region overnight into early Saturday. Southerly flow increases to SCA after 06Z and further increases to Gales early Saturday morning as the system strengthens off the coast. Winds on the backside of the system become W/NW 20-25 kts over the bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound, with gusts 35-40 kts. Over the coastal waters expect W/NW winds 25-35 kts with gusts 40-45 kts. Waves in the bay build to 4-6 ft. Seas build to 5-9 ft. Decided to start the Gale Warning's at 06Z to account for the steady buildup with the southerly surge ahead of the system, and to give a buffer in case winds increase a few hours faster than expected. Issued a SCA for the rivers starting at 06Z. Even though it's likely there will be a Gale gust or two over the rivers, don't think it will be prolonged enough to warrant a Gale warning, but will upgrade if newer guidance comes in stronger.

The Gales will likely end mid to late afternoon on Saturday with all zones likely to be converted over to SCA through early Sunday. Quieter marine conditions for the second half of Sunday and then attention early next week will turn to the next storm system that will impact the area Monday into early Tuesday, with additional SCA winds/seas likely.

HYDROLOGY. As of 1240 PM EST Friday .

The Appomattox River at Mattoax is forecast to approach, but should remain below, minor flood stage today. Additional rises on areas rivers may occur over the weekend due to the expected rainfall tonight and Sat.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for MDZ025. NC . Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday for NCZ102. VA . Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday for VAZ098>100. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-634- 638. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652. Gale Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650- 652.

SYNOPSIS . RHR NEAR TERM . ERI/RHR SHORT TERM . ERI/RHR LONG TERM . CP AVIATION . ERI/RHR MARINE . CMF HYDROLOGY .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 10 mi44 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 52°F 50°F1016.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 17 mi44 min SE 6 G 7 1017 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 26 mi20 min SSE 9.7 G 12 49°F 53°F1018.2 hPa
44089 26 mi36 min 57°F3 ft
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi20 min S 5.8 G 7.8 55°F 53°F1015.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi44 min SSW 12 G 14 55°F 48°F1015.4 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 39 mi44 min SSE 8 G 8.9 53°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi44 min SSW 6 G 7 57°F 49°F1015.6 hPa
44072 43 mi32 min S 3.9 G 3.9 55°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi56 min SE 7 G 8 54°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi44 min S 7 G 8
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi44 min E 5.1 G 6 56°F 55°F1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi2.4 hrsS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F44°F69%1017.6 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA24 mi68 minS 810.00 miFair54°F48°F80%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S6S4S6S6SW7S7S5--SW3S3S6S7SW6SW3S6S9SW8
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W6CalmCalm--W4--NW3CalmN3N4N3N3Calm----CalmS5S6S6S7S9S7
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Tide / Current Tables for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Chesconessex Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:54 AM EST     1.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:01 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:43 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:11 PM EST     2.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:01 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.71.81.71.410.70.40.30.40.71.21.72.12.32.221.61.10.70.40.30.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Watts Island, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Watts Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:11 AM EST     1.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:09 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:43 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:27 PM EST     1.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:09 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.41.41.20.90.50.30.10.20.50.81.31.61.81.81.61.30.90.50.30.20.20.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.