Sunday, April5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kilmarnock, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:32PM Sunday April 5, 2020 3:05 PM EDT (19:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:45PMMoonset 4:33AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 131 Pm Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 kt, becoming N in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 131 Pm Edt Sun Apr 5 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure over the region this afternoon will drift offshore tonight. A weak cold front crosses the region on Monday. A stronger cold front will approach from the west by midweek and cross the waters late Thursday through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA
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location: 37.73, -76.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 051854 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 254 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front approaches the local area this evening before crossing the area late tonight through Monday. The front moves back north as a warm front Monday night through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. As of 250 PM EDT Sunday .

Much nicer wx over the entire FA this afternoon as weak sfc hi pres is slow to exit off the coast. SSW winds inland/SE winds near the coast . mainly avgg 10 mph or less w/ temperatures mainly in the m-u60s . except for u50s-l60s at the (immediate) coast.

A weak cold front is currently back near the mountains this afternoon . and that front will be slowly pushing ESE across the FA tonight. The result will be increased clouds and an expansion of PoPs (from near 15%) over the far WNW this evening to across the entire FA (to 15-30% . highest far N and NE) after 03-06Z/06. QPF through tonight will be very light (avgg less than a few hundredths of an inch). Lows tonight will be in the m-u40s in rural inland areas to the l50s in most metro/urban areas.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 345 AM EDT Sunday .

A 15-30% chc (highest SE) for a few showers will continue Mon morning, as the aforementioned front crosses the region from N to S. The front will become more WNW-ESE oriented by aftn as it moves quicker over the bay/ocean than it does over land. Some re-development of showers is expected along/ahead of the front Mon aftn (mainly over srn VA/NE NC). Forecast soundings still show some instability ahead of the front, but mid-upper forcing will be meager at best. Still some differences in the guidance with respect to how far south the front gets by the end of the day on Monday. Several of the CAMs have the front far enough S of the area by Mon aftn that shower/isolated tstm development occurs to the S of the CWA (with little to nothing in our area). Pcpn chances end from N to S as the weak front crosses the area. For now, have 15-30% PoPs confined to the SW half of the CWA after 18z/2 PM, with coverage of PoPs only across far srn VA/NE NC after 21z/5 PM. Slightly warmer on Mon with highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the low to mid 70s elsewhere. The weak boundary moves back N as a warm front Mon night, as low pressure tracks ewd across the nrn Plains. Will keep slight chc PoPs across NE NC through 03z Tue, with a partly cloudy/dry forecast elsewhere Mon night. Lows Mon night range from the mid 40s-near 50F on the Lower Ern Shore to the low 50s elsewhere.

The low over the nrn Plains tracks ewd across the Great Lakes from Tue-Tue night while the associated warm front remains N of the area. More shortwave energy in WNW flow aloft will approach and move into the area on Tue, especially by aftn. Scattered showers will move develop/move across the area by aftn, with isolated tstms possible across much of the area as well (w/ the exception of the Lower Ern Shore). Pcpn chances increase to 30-50% (highest NW) by aftn. The severe wx threat with any convection that does develop looks to be fairly minimal (SPC has most of the area outlined in a General Thunder risk). Despite highs in the mid 70s-near 80F (except for upper 60s on the Ern Shore), dew points will only be in the 50s, which will act to limit instability. In addition, there will be a large westerly/downsloping component in the low-level flow across the area. Coverage of pcpn decreases Tue night, with a mainly dry forecast after 06z (except for a slight chc of showers on the Lower MD Ern Shore). Lows Tue night mainly in the 50s-around 60F.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 150 PM EDT Sunday .

The extended period will be dominated by WNW flow aloft (and a transition from above normal temperatures to those avgg near-below normal). Sfc lo pres will be tracking by N of the FA Thu pushing a cold front (w/ diminishing moisture) across the region. Cooler/dry air is expected to follow Thu night-Sat By Sun. another cold front is expected to arrive from the NW . leading to increased clouds and chances for SHRAs.

Lows Wed night in the l-m50s N to the m-u50s S. Highs Thu from the l-m70s N and along the coast to around 80F elsewhere. Lows Thu night in the l40s N and NW to the u40s SE. Highs Fri in the u50s-around 60F N and NE to the l-m60s S and SW. Lows Fri night in the u30s-around 40F N and NW to the m-u40s along the SE VA/NE NC coasts. Highs Sat in the u50s-around 60F N and NE to the l-m60s S. Highs Sun 60-65F N and NE to the u60s S.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 120 PM EDT Sunday .

VFR conditions continuing through this evening into tonight w/ SCT-BKN mid-level clouds. VRB-S winds remain AOB 10 kt. Winds turn to the SSW at all of the terminals tonight. Wind speeds remain aob 10 kt through the 12z TAF period. The weak cold front approaches the area tonight before crossing the area on Monday. There will be a 15-30% chc for SHRAs at all of the terminals from tonight (mainly after 03z). Lo prob for MVFR CIGS at RIC/SBY by late tonight . while no significant VSBY restrictions are expected with the showers.

Some re-development of showers is possible Mon afternoon . though most likely WSW of the terminals (in NC and south central VA. Additional showers/ISOLD tstms are possible by Tue afternoon/evening. Occasional flight restrictions are possible from tonight-Tue, but prevailing conditions likely remain VFR most of the time.

MARINE. As of 355 AM EDT Sunday .

High pressure has settled in across the area with fairly light winds in place early this morning. SCAs remain for seas on the coastal waters where current seas are 6-8 ft. Expect the seas to gradually subside to 5-6 ft later today/tonight, before eventually falling below 5 ft late Mon. SCAs are more marginal at the mouth of the Bay but will keep them in effect for some waves up to 4 ft through this aftn due to the 12-13 sec long period swell.

High pressure drifts SE off the coast this evening as a weak cold front approaches from the NW. Winds increase to 10-15 kt tonight from the S ahead of the front, then turn northerly in the wake of the front later Monday. Not expecting SCA as there is no appreciable cold advection and the front is then expected to wash out or lift back N Mon night as winds begin to shift to SE. Mainly sub-SCA conditions through late in the week (though some increase in westerly flow is likely by Wed. A stronger cold front will likely bring SCA conditions by Thu or Fri.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 355 AM EDT Sunday .

Tidal anomalies remain around 2 ft across much of the Bay and even with modeled forecasts for currents at the mouth of the Bay to start ebbing more efficiently today (which will help push some of the water piled up in the Bay back out into the Atlantic), have decided to maintain Coastal Flood Warnings for portions of the northern Neck adjacent to the Potomac (Lewisetta) and for the Bayside of the MD eastern shore (Crisfield/Bishops Head/Cambridge). Have also raised another Coastal Flood Advisory farther S across the remainder of zones adjacent to the Bay to cover the upcoming high tide cycle through this morning.

After that, anticipate water levels to drop off more significantly tonight and into Monday so that only one additional Coastal Flood Advisory or statement may be needed for the Mon AM high tide cycle across the upper Bay.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC . None. VA . Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ075- 077. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/TMG NEAR TERM . ALB SHORT TERM . ALB/ERI LONG TERM . ALB AVIATION . ALB/ERI MARINE . LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 11 mi126 min S 14 G 16 55°F1 ft1023.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 20 mi48 min E 6 G 7 58°F 54°F1018.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi48 min SSW 7 G 8.9 1020.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi30 min ESE 27 G 31 55°F 1018.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 31 mi48 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 31 mi96 min E 2.9 64°F 1020 hPa44°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 33 mi48 min SE 13 G 15 55°F 1019.4 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 34 mi48 min SW 8.9 G 11 57°F 55°F1019.1 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi48 min E 9.9 G 12 56°F 56°F1018.1 hPa
44072 37 mi36 min S 9.7 G 12 54°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi48 min SSW 12 G 13 56°F 54°F1018.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 42 mi48 min S 9.9 G 12 53°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi48 min SE 11 G 12 56°F 55°F1018.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi48 min SSE 11 G 14 1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA29 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair65°F45°F49%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NE6E8E5E5SE3SE3SE4S4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6CalmW4SW3E3S5S5Calm
1 day agoW14
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N6N3NE4N5N3N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N9
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Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:52 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:29 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:37 PM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.20-00.10.30.60.91.21.31.210.70.40.1-0-00.20.40.811.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Fleet Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:25 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:33 AM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:02 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:58 PM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.60.30.1-000.20.40.811.21.21.10.80.50.30.1-000.30.60.91.11.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.