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Marine Weather and Tides Kilmarnock, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:02AM

Sunset 4:49PM

Friday December 6, 2019 8:07 PM EST (01:07 UTC)

Moonrise 1:56PM

Moonset 1:25AM

Illumination 76%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 070005 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 705 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front crosses the area tonight with high pressure returning for the weekend. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes region early next week, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in on Thursday before moving offshore by late Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Friday .

Late afternoon upper air analysis shows troughing across the ern CONUS, w/ two distinct shortwaves tracking ewd: one across the eastern Great Lakes and another near AL/GA. At the surface, ~1012 mb low pressure is over south-central NY while ~1030 mb high pressure is centered from KS to MN. A trailing cold front extended S-SW from central PA to Mississippi. BKN-OVC mid level clouds prevail across the area in advance of the cold front. Radar mosaic is showing a few light echoes across the area, but any rain that is trying to fall is not close to reaching the ground, given a pronounced dry layer from around 700 mb to the sfc. Return SW flow has allowed it to warm up quite a bit today (despite the cloud cover), with temperatures mainly in the 50s across the area. There are a few readings near 60F in SE VA/NE NC.

The cold front will cross the area tonight. Some very weak mid- level ascent is moving through the area, and will continue to move through as the upper trough axis crosses the region. Despite this, the low levels will still remain quite dry (w/ some moistening right with the FROPA). Cannot rule out a stray shower from 00-06z tonight (mainly across srn VA, NE NC, and the Lower Ern Shore . where PoPs are mainly in the slight chc range). Elsewhere, expect a dry FROPA with decreasing clouds from N to S behind the front (mainly after midnight). Winds become north tonight allowing for some CAA to set in. Lows by 12Z Sat mainly in the 30s except for low 40s in SE VA/NE NC.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Friday .

Sunny but cool Sat as high pressure builds into the Northeast CONUS and the sfc flow turns to the NNE. Not particularly cold for early December (850 mb temps of -1 to -3C) with highs ranging from the mid 40s N to the upper 40s S. Clear w/ light winds Sat night as the high becomes centered over srn New England, with sfc ridging extending SSW into our area. Given the clear skies/light winds, went a bit cooler than model consensus Sat night. Forecast lows are mainly in the mid 20s inland, with low 30s across coastal SE VA/NE NC. The high pushes offshore of the New England coast on Sun. This allows the sfc flow to become SSE, veering to the WSW in the mid-levels. This will allow WAA to commence on Sun. Deep-layer moisture starts to increase during the latter half of the day on Sun as a series of disturbances in WSW-SW flow aloft approach the local area (as a trough aloft starts to amplify in the Rockies/High Plains). In addition, a trough of low pressure develops at the sfc along the Carolina coast by Sun evening. Milder Sun with highs ranging from the upper 40s NW to the upper 50s SE.

Rain quickly develops/moves into the area Sun night from S to N as a warm mid-level airmass overruns relatively cooler air near the surface. This happens as the weak trough of low pressure approaches from the S. PoPs of 30-50% during the evening increase to 60-70% in most areas after 06z Mon. QPFs through 12z Mon are mainly in the 0.1-0.25" range. Lows Monday morning range from around 40F N to around 50F SE. Periods of showers continue throughout the day on Mon as the first upper level disturbance/area of sfc low pressure crosses the region. Models are hinting at a (relative) lull in the pcpn across sern zones during the latter half of the day on Mon, while numerous showers move across northern/western portions of the CWA (w/ somewhat of an in-situ wedge lingering across the Piedmont). Adjusted PoPs to reflect this thinking (chc PoPs across SE VA/NE NC with likely PoPs north/west from 18z Mon-00z Tue). Highs Mon range from the low-mid 50s NW to the mid-upper 60s SE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Friday .

The aforementioned trough aloft quickly amplifies across the Midwest Mon night-Tue as strong sfc low pressure deepens as it tracks from the Upper Midwest to SE Canada. A series of upper disturbances (in SW flow aloft) will continue to track toward/across the region through Tue as the associated cold front slowly approaches from the W/NW. Strong WAA will continue through Tue (850 mb temps rising to 8-11C by 12z Tue) under deep-layered SW flow. With the area likely remaining in the warm sector from Mon night-Tue, expect at least a chc of (occasional) showers to continue from Mon night through the first part of the day on Tue. Have PoPs in the 30-60% range for the most part from 00-18z Tue, as most of the rain will remain to our west through midday Tue (latest 12z/06 models are slowing the eastward progression of the upper trough axis). Mild Monday night with lows mainly in the 50s.

It is still looking like the frontal passage holds off until sometime during the latter half of the day on Tue. As a result, look for highs well into the 60s on Tuesday . with the potential for some low 70s in Hampton Roads/NE NC. PoPs increase to 60-70% by Tue aftn in all areas except for far SE VA/NE NC as the upper trough axis continues to slowly move toward the region. The cold front is progged to move S of the CWA by late Tue night, but a long-duration light to moderate rain is expected to continue before ending from NW to SE Wed AM (as the upper trough axis finally approaches/crosses the region). As cooler air filters into the region behind the front Tue night, the rain is expected to change over to snow in areas to our NW (while a cold rain continues across our CWA). Cannot rule out a brief changeover to snow (or a rain/snow mix) closer to 12z Wed across our far NW zones, but not expecting any impacts from snow that does fall (temps remain above freezing). Additionally, 12z/06 EPS probabilities of at least 1" of snow are only 10-20% across Louisa/Fluvanna counties from Tue night-Wed AM. Lows Tue night range from the mid 30s north/west to the low-mid 40s in SE VA/NE NC.

It will be dry but colder from Wed aftn-Thu as strong high pressure builds into the Great Lakes by midweek before quickly migrating eastward. The high becomes centered near/over the local area by Thursday evening. This will result in a short- lived period of below average temperatures from Wed night-Thu night, due to cold Canadian air sweeping across the region behind the departing front. Forecast highs are mainly in the mid-upper 40s on Wed (some readings around 50 across the SE), Colder on Thu with highs ranging from the upper 30s-low 40s. Lows Wed night/Thu night mainly in the 20s (although some teens are possible across NW zones). Model consensus is forecasting the high to move offshore of the New England Coast on Fri as low pressure develops near the Gulf Coast. This low will likely track across our region next weekend. However, it is looking like any threat for impacts due to wintry precipitation will likely remain N of the region (12z EPS probs for 1" of snow are ~0% across our CWA next weekend).

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 705 PM EST Friday .

VFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF period. Mid/high level clouds (CIGS 7-12k feet) will affect the TAF sites this evening into early Sat morning, as a cold front drops across the area. There is a slight (15-20%) chc of SHRAs at SBY/ECG from 00-06z Sat, but did not include any mention of pcpn in the TAFs (even if SHRAs do occur, conditions will remain VFR). The other terminals should remain dry through the TAF period. The sky will clear out from N to S Sat morning. SKC conditions then prevail through the day on Sat. SW winds 5-15 kt this evening will turn to the W tonight before eventually becoming N-NNE Sat morning. NNE winds could gust to 20 kt at ORF/ECG on Sat, with a few gusts to 15 kt possible elsewhere.

OUTLOOK . High pressure builds into the area Sat into Sat night before moving offshore on Sun. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the weekend. Periods of showers are then expected from late Sun night through Tue night, as low pressure tracks well to our NW (which will drag a strong cold front through the region). Degraded flight conditions are likely during this time period (due to both CIGs/VSBYs).

MARINE. As of 300 PM EST Friday .

SW winds are currently running 10-15 kt, except 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt off the lower Eastern Shore. These winds will continue through the evening hours ahead of a cold front. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-4 ft (highest north). SCAs remain in effect north of Parramore Island.

Winds become N/NW late tonight into early Saturday after the front crosses the area waters. Winds increase to 15-20 kts in the bay with gusts to 25 kts, and 20-25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts in the coastal waters. Waves in the bay build to 2-4 ft and seas build to 3- 5 ft in the middle and northern coastal waters and 4-6 ft in the southern coastal waters. SCA will be in effect for the bay, rivers, coastal waters, and Currituck sound from early Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon, lingering into Saturday evening for the southern coastal waters and Currituck sound.

Winds along with waves/seas will subside by late Saturday night as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure builds into the area for the remainder of the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ635>638-654. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/MPR NEAR TERM . ERI SHORT TERM . ERI/MPR LONG TERM . ERI AVIATION . ERI/TMG MARINE . JDM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA	20 mi	50 min	SSW 17 G 19				1020.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	20 mi	62 min	SW 12 G 15	52°F	45°F		1018.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD	21 mi	68 min		50°F	47°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	31 mi	50 min	WSW 7 G 11
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA	31 mi	98 min	SSW 1.9	51°F			1021 hPa	35°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA	33 mi	50 min	WSW 18 G 20	53°F			1020.3 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA	34 mi	50 min	WSW 8.9 G 13	54°F	46°F		1019.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA	36 mi	50 min	SW 9.9 G 13	54°F	49°F		1019.6 hPa
44072	37 mi	38 min	WNW 14 G 18	52°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD	37 mi	62 min	SW 13 G 15	50°F	44°F		1018.4 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA	42 mi	62 min	SW 11 G 14		49°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	42 mi	50 min	SW 12 G 15	52°F	48°F		1017.9 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA	44 mi	32 min		52°F			1020.5 hPa
44087	49 mi	38 min			49°F	1 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA	29 mi	13 min	SW 6	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	52°F	36°F	56%	1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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