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Marine Weather and Tides Kilmarnock, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:53AM

Sunset 7:01PM

Wednesday September 23, 2020 2:28 PM EDT (18:28 UTC)

Moonrise 1:00PM

Moonset 10:40PM

Illumination 39%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 231726 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 126 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure slides off the Carolina coast early Thursday. Weak low pressure and remnant moisture from Beta moves across the region Friday. Weak high pressure returns over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday .

High pressure slides off the coast tonite. This allows the high level clouds to slowly overspread the area. Mstly clr to pt cldy this eve becomes mstly cldy after midnite across the west. Lows in the mid-upr 50s except arnd 60 across sern beach areas.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday .

The upper ridge breaks down by tonight and Thursday as a mid- level trough associated with the remnants of TC Beta gradually moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. High clouds increase tonight and then some thicker mid and high clouds are possible by Thursday. Forecast lows tonight range from the mid to upper 50s, with locally ~60F along the coast. Forecast highs Thursday range from the low/mid 70s over the Piedmont (with some thicker cloud cover) to the mid/upper 70s toward the coast.

The mid-level trough slowly approaches from the WSW Thursday night, Friday, and into Friday night. The high offshore and ridge aloft are rather strong, so the trough does dampen and slow down as it approaches the area. There is still considerable spread amongst the deterministic guidance (the 23/00z ECMWF remains the farthest N and most moist) and NBM shows mostly chc PoPs for the area. At this time, the official forecast is generally 20-30% PoPs across the N and 30-50% across the S for showers. Cloud cover should keep highs in the low/mid 70s Friday, with lows Thursday and Friday nights in the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday .

A weak ridge tries to build Saturday into Sunday allowing highs to increase into the upper 70s to near 80F on Saturday and Monday with highs in the low 80s on Sunday. The ridge moves offshore ahead of an anomalously deep trough approaching from the W Tuesday into Wednesday as the pattern becomes very amplified with a large ridge over western half of the country and a large trough over the eastern half. Diurnally enhanced precip chances will increase ahead of this trough with a chance for a few showers and perhaps a low-end chance for an isolated thunderstorm late Saturday and Sunday. Showers will once again be possible Monday (more likely in the eastern half of the CWA) before the larger swath of moisture along and ahead of the cold front moves through late Tuesday into Wednesday with isolated thunderstorms also possible. This trough will allow for cooler Fall temps to enter the region with highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s dropping into the upper 60s to around 70F on Wednesday. Lows will generally be in the 60s Saturday, Sunday, and Monday nights with a few upper 50s possible in the far NW on Monday night. Lows drop into the 50s (low 60s possible along the coast) on Tuesday night and then down into the upper 40s NW to 50s SE on Wednesday night.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday .

VFR conditions continue through the forecast period as high pressure slowly slides off the coast by Thursday. Expect an increase in high level moisture through the period. WNW winds at less than 10 kts becme lgt / vrbl tonight.

OUTLOOK . Low pressure tracks across the Carolinas Friday into Friday night. CIGS/VSBYS lower as showers overspread the area. High pressure remains offshore Saturday/Sunday with only a low chc of showers.

MARINE. As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday .

Latest analysis shows post tropical cyclone Teddy just off the coast of Nova Scotia, and high pressure off to our west over the TN valley. West winds generally 5-10 kts this morning. Waves/Seas continue to be elevated and will be slow to subside today. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft with around 4 ft at the mouth of the bay. The SCA for the mouth of the bay was extended for several more hours and now goes until 14Z. Seas are 5-8 ft over the northern coastal waters and 8-11 ft over the southern coastal waters. By late tonight seas subside to 3-5 ft over the northern coastal waters and 3-6 ft over the southern coastal waters. The SCA for all of the coastal waters runs until 05Z late tonight.

High pressure slides offshore for Thursday and Friday, with the winds becoming southerly 5-10 kts. Waves in the bay 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. The calmer marine conditions are expected to persist through the weekend with no headlines anticipated.

HYDROLOGY. As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday .

Will be cancelling the warning at Sebrell as that gauge just fell blo flood stage. Warning continues at Franklin.

See FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ and weather.gov/AKQ for more site-specific information.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 530 AM EDT Wednesday .

Tidal anomalies are running about 1-1.5 ft above MLLW this morning. Meanwhile, the last flood/ebb cycle was around 1-1.5 kt. Have issued Coastal Flood Statements for Virginia Beach and Currituck county from 11 AM until 4 PM and for the lower Ches Bay and Northampton county from 12 PM until 6 PM Wednesday for nuisance coastal flooding that might reach minor flood stage. Northampton county (specifically the Nassawadox Creek near Bayford) may need a Coastal Flood Advisory for the high tide this afternoon, but will wait to see the tidal trends today before making a decision.

Swells enhanced by Hurricane Teddy (well offshore), with periods of ~15 seconds, and very large waves of 10-12 feet+ will make for very dangerous conditions at the Atlantic Beaches through Tuesday. In addition, there is dune/beach erosion potential, especially for more vulnerable locations with the high tide cycles today before conditions improve beginning on Wednesday. Beach Hazards Statements/High Rip Current Risk continue today and is forecast to remain high on Wednesday. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coast as waves in the surf zone range from 8-10ft North to 10-12ft South.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . AJZ LONG TERM . RMM AVIATION . AJZ/MPR MARINE . CMF HYDROLOGY . MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA	11 mi	28 min	NW 9.7 G 9.7	70°F	70°F	1 ft	1018.6 hPa (-1.2)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	20 mi	58 min	NW 5.1 G 6	72°F			1016 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA	20 mi	58 min	W 7 G 8				1016.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	31 mi	58 min	WNW 13 G 16
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA	31 mi	58 min	N 1.9	72°F			1018 hPa	56°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA	33 mi	58 min	W 8.9 G 9.9	70°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA	34 mi	58 min	WNW 4.1 G 8.9	74°F			1015.8 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA	36 mi	58 min	NW 6 G 7	70°F			1016.4 hPa
44072	37 mi	38 min	NW 3.9 G 5.8	69°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD	37 mi	58 min	WNW 8 G 9.9	69°F			1015.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA	42 mi	58 min	WNW 7 G 8.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	42 mi	58 min	W 6 G 8	74°F			1015.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	47 mi	58 min	NW 4.1 G 6				1016.2 hPa
44087	49 mi	32 min			69°F	3 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA	29 mi	33 min	SW 4	10.00 mi	Fair	75°F	51°F	44%	1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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