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Marine Weather and Tides Kilmarnock, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:19AM

Sunset 7:47PM

Thursday April 22, 2021 9:43 AM EDT (13:43 UTC)

Moonrise 1:42PM

Moonset 3:02AM

Illumination 81%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 221106 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 706 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds across the area today through Friday. Low pressure crosses the region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. High pressure returns Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

Current GOES WV imagery places a deep trough over the Eastern US. At the surface, 1025mb high pressure is centered over the Ozarks, and extends eastward through the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, 991mb low pressure is centered over New Brunswick, with the trailing cold front now well offshore. Clear early this morning, with the exception of a few narrow streamers off the Chesapeake Bay. A much cooler airmass has arrived behind the cold front, with temperatures ranging from the low 30s over the Piedmont (even 29F at LKU), with mid/upper 30s for central and NE portions of the area, and low/mid 40s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. The Freeze Warning remains in effect through 8 AM.

Surface high pressure will continue to build across the Southeast today. However, a secondary 500mb shortwave trough is progged to drop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Therefore, SCT-BKN SC are expected to develop across the area during the afternoon resulting in variably cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy conditions. Otherwise, cool, dry, and breezy are expected today with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to around 60F (about -1 to -1.5 st dev from the mean), and a W wind of 15-20 mph gusting to 25 mph, and up to 30 mph over the Eastern Shore.

The surface high builds into the Carolinas tonight, and expands into the VA Piedmont, central/s-central VA, and interior NE NC. Clear and chilly with low temperatures ranging from 30-32F over the Piedmont (localized upper 20s possible), to 32-35F for central/s-central VA and interior NE NC, with mid 30s to low 40s toward the coast where more mixing is expected with some lingering gradient in the surface pressure field. Another freeze warning is likely (and may be larger than the current one), and there is a better potential for frost for s-central VA/interior NE NC as dewpoints creep upward.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

High pressure passes over the area Friday as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the low/mid 60s. Surface high pressure moves farther offshore Friday night as low pressure organizes over the Deep South. Partly cloudy to mostly clear with low temperatures ranging through the 40s (some upper 30s possible NW). Low pressure approaches from the SW Saturday morning and tracks across the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Showers are expected to accompany this system, with some tstms possible across southern portions of the area as there is some elevated instability (negative Showalter indices) primarily Saturday evening. Severe potential is limited at this time given a lack of surface based instability. However, this will need to be monitored as the event approaches given the presence of a warm front in vicinity of the VA/NC border. QPF ranges from 0.5-0.75". Highs Saturday range from the low 60s W (clouds/showers arrive earlier), to the upper 60s/around 70F E. Lows Saturday night are forecast to range through the 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

Low pressure deepens as it tracks NE along the New England coast Sunday. Drier air filters across the local area behind this system Sunday aftn. A few lingering showers are possible along the coast Sunday morning then decreasing clouds. Highs range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

High pressure builds into the area from the north Sunday night/Monday then shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday/Wednesday. This results in a warming trend with temperatures going above normal. Dry through Wednesday but models do show some increasing moisture approaching the mountains by late Wednesday.

Cool Sunday/Monday nights with lows in the 40s to near 50F SE. Highs Monday 65-70F. Highs Tuesday mid/upper 70s W of the bay, upper 60s-lower 70s near the water. Lows Tuesday night in the 50s. Highs Wednesday in the upper 70s-lower 80s away from the water, 70-75F along the coast.

AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 705 AM EDT Thursday .

High pressure continues to build in from the W as of 11z, with low pressure lifting NE over Atlantic Canada. High pressure will continue to build in from the W this morning. The wind will then increase by 13-14z, with a WNW wind of 12-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt (locally 25-30kt at SBY) expected during the late morning and afternoon. A secondary shortwave trough aloft will cross the region this afternoon, and this is expected to produce a period of SCT-BKN SC ~8000ft. High pressure builds over the region tonight with the wind becoming light and generally out of the WNW.

High pressure remains over the region Friday into Friday night, before moving offshore Saturday. Low pressure will bring a showers and degraded flight conditions Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. High pressure returns Sunday into Monday.

MARINE. As of 415 AM EDT Thursday .

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered over nrn AL. Winds were NW 15-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt over the waters. Waves were 3-5 ft, and seas were 4-6 ft. Just have SCA's now for all the waters, which will gradually end during today into this evening, as NW or W winds slowly diminish, and waves/seas subside also.

A second high pressure area will build into and over the area tonight into Fri morning, then slides out to sea Fri aftn into Sat. Next system impacts the area late Sat into Sun, which will result in another period of SCA winds/seas.

FIRE WEATHER. As of 400 AM EDT Thursday .

The wind will be gusty at times this afternoon (25-30 mph and up to 35 mph on the eastern shore) with min RH values lowering further, ranging from 20-25% inland to 25-30% toward the coast. However, there will be a couple of factors that should help mitigate fire weather concerns. The first is the potential for afternoon cloudiness and we'll also see cooler temperatures compared to Wednesday. The second is higher fuel moisture and damp soil conditions, given recent rainfall and low KBDI values. The third is green-up which is already well underway. For these reasons, increased fire danger headlines have not been issued.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060>062- 065>069-509>511. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>638-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633.

SYNOPSIS . AJZ NEAR TERM . AJZ SHORT TERM . AJZ LONG TERM . AJZ/MPR AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . CMF/TMG FIRE WEATHER . AKQ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA	20 mi	56 min	W 16 G 20				1018.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	20 mi	56 min	W 8.9 G 12	43°F	55°F		1017.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD	21 mi	38 min	WNW 18 G 19	44°F	56°F		1017.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	31 mi	56 min	WNW 13 G 17
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA	31 mi	74 min	W 4.1	42°F			1019 hPa	25°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA	33 mi	56 min	WNW 15 G 21	44°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA	34 mi	56 min	W 7 G 12	45°F	54°F		1017.3 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA	36 mi	56 min	W 15 G 18	44°F	58°F		1017.7 hPa
44072	37 mi	44 min	N 14 G 18	45°F		2 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD	37 mi	56 min	WNW 16 G 20	44°F	48°F		1016.9 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA	42 mi	56 min	WNW 17 G 21		56°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	42 mi	56 min	W 11 G 16	44°F	56°F		1017 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	47 mi	56 min	WSW 9.9 G 16	42°F			1016.9 hPa
44087	49 mi	48 min			57°F	2 ft

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA

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S15

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SW11

NW25

NW30

NW34

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NW33 G41

NW29 G37

NW28

NW32 G39

NW27 G34

NW24

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NW22 G29

NW19 G27

NW16 G22

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W16 G20

1 day ago

S11

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2 days ago

E8 G11

NW19 G30

N25

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NW25

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N18

NE15

NE5 G8

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NW7

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W7

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SW8

SW11

S9

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA	29 mi	49 min	W 9 G 16	10.00 mi	Fair	44°F	26°F	49%	1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)

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SW11 G17

SW12 G16

W13 G16

W15 G22

W5

W8

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NW11 G18

N12 G19

NW9 G20

NW11 G17

NW7 G14

NW9 G16

NW6

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W8 G14

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W11 G16

1 day ago

SW4

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S10 G18

SW7

S12 G16

S11 G14

S10 G15

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SW10

SW10 G18

2 days ago

N6

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N7 G14

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N8

Calm

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Calm

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SW4

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S5

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Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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