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Marine Weather and Tides Kilmarnock, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:42AM

Sunset 7:32PM

Sunday April 5, 2020 3:05 PM EDT (19:05 UTC)

Moonrise 3:45PM

Moonset 4:33AM

Illumination 95%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilmarnock, VA

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 051854 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 254 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front approaches the local area this evening before crossing the area late tonight through Monday. The front moves back north as a warm front Monday night through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. As of 250 PM EDT Sunday .

Much nicer wx over the entire FA this afternoon as weak sfc hi pres is slow to exit off the coast. SSW winds inland/SE winds near the coast . mainly avgg 10 mph or less w/ temperatures mainly in the m-u60s . except for u50s-l60s at the (immediate) coast.

A weak cold front is currently back near the mountains this afternoon . and that front will be slowly pushing ESE across the FA tonight. The result will be increased clouds and an expansion of PoPs (from near 15%) over the far WNW this evening to across the entire FA (to 15-30% . highest far N and NE) after 03-06Z/06. QPF through tonight will be very light (avgg less than a few hundredths of an inch). Lows tonight will be in the m-u40s in rural inland areas to the l50s in most metro/urban areas.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 345 AM EDT Sunday .

A 15-30% chc (highest SE) for a few showers will continue Mon morning, as the aforementioned front crosses the region from N to S. The front will become more WNW-ESE oriented by aftn as it moves quicker over the bay/ocean than it does over land. Some re-development of showers is expected along/ahead of the front Mon aftn (mainly over srn VA/NE NC). Forecast soundings still show some instability ahead of the front, but mid-upper forcing will be meager at best. Still some differences in the guidance with respect to how far south the front gets by the end of the day on Monday. Several of the CAMs have the front far enough S of the area by Mon aftn that shower/isolated tstm development occurs to the S of the CWA (with little to nothing in our area). Pcpn chances end from N to S as the weak front crosses the area. For now, have 15-30% PoPs confined to the SW half of the CWA after 18z/2 PM, with coverage of PoPs only across far srn VA/NE NC after 21z/5 PM. Slightly warmer on Mon with highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s near the coast to the low to mid 70s elsewhere. The weak boundary moves back N as a warm front Mon night, as low pressure tracks ewd across the nrn Plains. Will keep slight chc PoPs across NE NC through 03z Tue, with a partly cloudy/dry forecast elsewhere Mon night. Lows Mon night range from the mid 40s-near 50F on the Lower Ern Shore to the low 50s elsewhere.

The low over the nrn Plains tracks ewd across the Great Lakes from Tue-Tue night while the associated warm front remains N of the area. More shortwave energy in WNW flow aloft will approach and move into the area on Tue, especially by aftn. Scattered showers will move develop/move across the area by aftn, with isolated tstms possible across much of the area as well (w/ the exception of the Lower Ern Shore). Pcpn chances increase to 30-50% (highest NW) by aftn. The severe wx threat with any convection that does develop looks to be fairly minimal (SPC has most of the area outlined in a General Thunder risk). Despite highs in the mid 70s-near 80F (except for upper 60s on the Ern Shore), dew points will only be in the 50s, which will act to limit instability. In addition, there will be a large westerly/downsloping component in the low-level flow across the area. Coverage of pcpn decreases Tue night, with a mainly dry forecast after 06z (except for a slight chc of showers on the Lower MD Ern Shore). Lows Tue night mainly in the 50s-around 60F.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 150 PM EDT Sunday .

The extended period will be dominated by WNW flow aloft (and a transition from above normal temperatures to those avgg near-below normal). Sfc lo pres will be tracking by N of the FA Thu pushing a cold front (w/ diminishing moisture) across the region. Cooler/dry air is expected to follow Thu night-Sat By Sun. another cold front is expected to arrive from the NW . leading to increased clouds and chances for SHRAs.

Lows Wed night in the l-m50s N to the m-u50s S. Highs Thu from the l-m70s N and along the coast to around 80F elsewhere. Lows Thu night in the l40s N and NW to the u40s SE. Highs Fri in the u50s-around 60F N and NE to the l-m60s S and SW. Lows Fri night in the u30s-around 40F N and NW to the m-u40s along the SE VA/NE NC coasts. Highs Sat in the u50s-around 60F N and NE to the l-m60s S. Highs Sun 60-65F N and NE to the u60s S.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 120 PM EDT Sunday .

VFR conditions continuing through this evening into tonight w/ SCT-BKN mid-level clouds. VRB-S winds remain AOB 10 kt. Winds turn to the SSW at all of the terminals tonight. Wind speeds remain aob 10 kt through the 12z TAF period. The weak cold front approaches the area tonight before crossing the area on Monday. There will be a 15-30% chc for SHRAs at all of the terminals from tonight (mainly after 03z). Lo prob for MVFR CIGS at RIC/SBY by late tonight . while no significant VSBY restrictions are expected with the showers.

Some re-development of showers is possible Mon afternoon . though most likely WSW of the terminals (in NC and south central VA. Additional showers/ISOLD tstms are possible by Tue afternoon/evening. Occasional flight restrictions are possible from tonight-Tue, but prevailing conditions likely remain VFR most of the time.

MARINE. As of 355 AM EDT Sunday .

High pressure has settled in across the area with fairly light winds in place early this morning. SCAs remain for seas on the coastal waters where current seas are 6-8 ft. Expect the seas to gradually subside to 5-6 ft later today/tonight, before eventually falling below 5 ft late Mon. SCAs are more marginal at the mouth of the Bay but will keep them in effect for some waves up to 4 ft through this aftn due to the 12-13 sec long period swell.

High pressure drifts SE off the coast this evening as a weak cold front approaches from the NW. Winds increase to 10-15 kt tonight from the S ahead of the front, then turn northerly in the wake of the front later Monday. Not expecting SCA as there is no appreciable cold advection and the front is then expected to wash out or lift back N Mon night as winds begin to shift to SE. Mainly sub-SCA conditions through late in the week (though some increase in westerly flow is likely by Wed. A stronger cold front will likely bring SCA conditions by Thu or Fri.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 355 AM EDT Sunday .

Tidal anomalies remain around 2 ft across much of the Bay and even with modeled forecasts for currents at the mouth of the Bay to start ebbing more efficiently today (which will help push some of the water piled up in the Bay back out into the Atlantic), have decided to maintain Coastal Flood Warnings for portions of the northern Neck adjacent to the Potomac (Lewisetta) and for the Bayside of the MD eastern shore (Crisfield/Bishops Head/Cambridge). Have also raised another Coastal Flood Advisory farther S across the remainder of zones adjacent to the Bay to cover the upcoming high tide cycle through this morning.

After that, anticipate water levels to drop off more significantly tonight and into Monday so that only one additional Coastal Flood Advisory or statement may be needed for the Mon AM high tide cycle across the upper Bay.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC . None. VA . Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ075- 077. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/TMG NEAR TERM . ALB SHORT TERM . ALB/ERI LONG TERM . ALB AVIATION . ALB/ERI MARINE . LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
44058 - Stingray Point, VA	11 mi	126 min	S 14 G 16		55°F	1 ft	1023.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	20 mi	48 min	E 6 G 7	58°F	54°F		1018.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA	20 mi	48 min	SSW 7 G 8.9				1020.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD	21 mi	30 min	ESE 27 G 31	55°F			1018.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	31 mi	48 min	ESE 8.9 G 9.9
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA	31 mi	96 min	E 2.9	64°F			1020 hPa	44°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA	33 mi	48 min	SE 13 G 15	55°F			1019.4 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA	34 mi	48 min	SW 8.9 G 11	57°F	55°F		1019.1 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA	36 mi	48 min	E 9.9 G 12	56°F	56°F		1018.1 hPa
44072	37 mi	36 min	S 9.7 G 12	54°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD	37 mi	48 min	SSW 12 G 13	56°F	54°F		1018.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA	42 mi	48 min	S 9.9 G 12		53°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	42 mi	48 min	SE 11 G 12	56°F	55°F		1018.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	47 mi	48 min	SSE 11 G 14				1018.8 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA

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NE9

NE4 G7

SE8

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SE3

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1 day ago

N17 G21

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N15 G19

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NE8 G11

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2 days ago

NW23 G28

NW18 G22

NW28

NW21 G27

NW17

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NW18

NW17 G22

NW21

NW21

W22

NW22 G27

NW23

W22 G28

W25

NW27

NW26 G32

NW26

NW22 G27

NW22 G27

NW19

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA	29 mi	71 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	65°F	45°F	49%	1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFYJ

Wind History from FYJ (wind in knots)

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NW3

NE6

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Calm

E3

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W6

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1 day ago

W14 G22

NW13 G18

NW10 G16

NW8 G14

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Calm

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NW4

N9 G14

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2 days ago

NW8 G17

NW11 G22

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NW8 G17

NW8

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W6

NW6

W6

NW9

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NW7 G14

W8 G14

W7 G15

W10 G18

NW11 G18

W14 G23

NW12 G21

W14 G22

W16 G20

NW10 G22

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Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA

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