Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 7:27AM||Sunset 7:46PM||Sunday September 19, 2021 10:01 AM EDT (14:01 UTC)||Moonrise 6:32PM||Moonset 4:49AM||Illumination 96%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boston, KYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLMK 191101 AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 701 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021
Short Term. (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021
Ahoy, mateys! We'll start off Talk Like A Pirate Day with the remnants of Nicholas marooned over the Deep South, and convection in the Tennessee Valley pillaging most of the tropical moisture again today. Cap'n Nicholas will weigh anchor later today on a heading for the Ohio Valley, so expect our precip chances to increase from south to north over the course of the day.
Most notable reflection of the former Nicholas is a weak upper low near the TX/LA border, with the remnant moisture plume now fanned out over the Deep South and the Tennessee Valley. There's also a weak inverted sfc trof extending NNE into western Kentucky and Tennessee, but the deep moisture does remain to our south with PWATs just touching 1.5 inches along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
A vort lobe currently oriented east-west along the southern border of Tennessee will pivot northward today and should allow for convection in south-central Kentucky this afternoon, and eventually farther north tonight. Highest POPs near Bowling Green, where we will go likely, but the northward extent will be tricky as ridging holds strong over the Upper Ohio Valley. Our POPs this afternoon will taper down to just a slight chance over the northern Bluegrass region. Not expecting much organization today, but localized heavy rainfall is certainly on the table given the very moist environment.
The upper impulse lifts through Kentucky late tonight in a deep southerly flow, with an impressive slug of moisture boosting PWATs to near 2 inches. The amplifying upper ridge to our east will guide most of the forcing and moisture west of I-65 tonight, supporting (conservatively) likely POPs and QPF exceeding a half inch. Localized higher amounts are certainly on the table, and we'll need to watch our west-central counties for flood potential given the heavy rain that fell there on Sat morning. Chance POPs and much lower rainfall amounts are expected east of I-65.
Temps will run above normal, especially at night due to the cloud cover and high dewpoints. Max temps will be modulated by cloud cover across the south, so expect another "reverse" temperature gradient with the coolest readings over south-central Kentucky and warmer temps to the north.
Long Term. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021
Wet Weather to start the Week .
A moist unsettled weather pattern will continue for the start of the week. Upper level ridging will be located along the eastern US as a deep trough digs southward across the Intermountain west on Monday. This will result in strong southerly flow over the area that will pump in copious amounts of deep Gulf moisture pushing PWAT values to around 2.00"+. Embedded shortwave moving northward over KY along with a 30-35kt LLJ will be the focus for rain during the day. Model guidance suggests that the bulk of the rain will fall during the first half of the day on Monday then taper off during the afternoon/evening as the upper level dynamics push off to the north and east. Given the deep moisture over the region, heavy rain will be the main threat.
By Tuesday the deepening upper level trough will be located across the Upper Midwest and Central plains as it pushes eastward. At the surface, a nearly north to south oriented cold front will stretch from Lake Michigan southward through IL into north-central AR. Rain will increase across the area, especially during the afternoon/evening, from west to east as the cold front works across the area. Ahead of the boundary, there will be good amount of moisture with PWATs ranging from 1.75" to 2.00" along with the chance of thunder due to marginal instability (CAPE between 1000- 2000 J/kg). Heavy rain will be the main threat with the possibility of localized flooding. Rain amounts from Monday to Wednesday morning could range between 1.50 to around 2.50".
Temperatures both days will range from the upper 70s to near 80 for highs and lows in the mid 60s to near 70.
Fall-like weather for the Second Half of the Week & Weekend .
Lingering showers are possible behind the cold front during the day Wednesday as a surface low develops along the boundary across WV and western PA as an upper level low takes shape over the eastern Great Lakes. These showers clear out Wednesday afternoon/evening as drier air and surface high pressure builds on over the region for the end of the week. It will be unseasonably cool through the end of the week with daily highs 10-15 degrees below seasonal normals. Highs will be in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 Wednesday and Thursday warming slightly into the low/mid 70s by the weekend. Mornings will also be chilly, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s through the rest of the forecast.
Aviation. (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 655 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021
Overnight fog at BWG dissipated with the development of showers over south-central Kentucky, so the only potential vis restriction this morning is at HNB, but we have even seen signs of improvement there in the last 30 min. Will be an issuance time decision, and should go to VFR by mid-morning.
Expect much of the day to be VFR, except for BWG which will go into MVFR as rain moves in this afternoon. Can't rule out embedded thunder but for now a TEMPO should cover that, with ceilings possibly dropping below 2000 feet in storms.
Precip will take its time spreading north and east as it runs up against ridging to our NE. Look for IFR ceilings at least part of the night in BWG and HNB, and while vis could drop in the heavier rain the IFR will be brief, so kept that in the MVFR range. SDF will walk the edge of the heavier and more persistent precip overnight, but we'll carry a PROB30 for thunder after midnight. LEX will remain VFR with only a VCSH mention.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . None. KY . None.
Short Term . ARRR-AS Long Term . BTN Aviation . RAS
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|Fort Knox, KY||21 mi||66 min||NE 3||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||70°F||69°F||99%||1019.3 hPa|
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