Deep Creek, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Deep Creek, VA


December 5, 2023 7:51 PM EST (00:51 UTC)
Sunrise 7:02AM   Sunset 4:43PM   Moonrise  12:00AM   Moonset 12:51PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 749 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am est Wednesday through Thursday morning...
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers late this evening. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, increasing to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves building to 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.

ANZ600 749 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
low pressure will intensify while pushing well off the carolina coast overnight through Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the west Wednesday night through Thursday, and gradually slides off the southeast coast on Friday. A strong cold front will approach from the west on Saturday, and is expected to impact the local waters Sunday through Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Deep Creek, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 052357 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 657 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong upper trough will swing into and across the area late tonight into Wednesday evening. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night and Thursday, before pushing offshore on Friday.
A strong frontal system likely impacts the region on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern this afternoon, but a clipper system will quickly approach from the northwest as we head into this evening. Mostly sunny skies this afternoon, but clouds will gradually increase this evening ahead of the clipper system. Since the system is cutoff from gulf moisture, majority of the QPF will be to our W-NW. However, it still appears there will be enough moisture/lift to squeeze out some spotty light rain/sprinkles tonight, potentially as early as this evening NW of RIC, to just after 00z-03z/7-10pm for the I-95 corridor. Low pressure will deepen while moving off the NC coast later this evening and into tonight due to the approaching upper trough.

Best chances for light precipitation still looks to be in roughly the midnight-4 AM tonight/early Wed AM timeframe, with a 20-40% PoP across much of the region (for rain showers) during the remainder of the morning. Precipitation ends from NW-SE Wed late morning through late aftn as the shortwave moves to our SE. While 1000- 500mb thicknesses will be ~530dm, the lowest ~2 kft AGL still appear to be too warm for much in the way of wintry precipitation. That said, model soundings do argue for potential for a brief period of sleet or graupel over the NW tier of counties as the trough axis pivots across the area Wed morning, and wouldn't be surprised to receive a report or two of some PL/graupel early Wed morning. Operational impacts would be minimal at most, with very light/spotty pcpn expected and with lows remaining in the lower to middle 30s.
Otherwise, cool and cloudy conditions for much of the day Wednesday.
The clouds in combination with the increasingly gusty NW wind will make for a chilly day with highs only rising into the mid to upper 40s. W-NW winds will average 10-15 mph inland, 15-20 mph along the coast, with gusts between 20-30 mph from I-95 on east are also forecast, peaking during Wed aftn and early evening. Total QPF generally once again averaging less than 0.10".

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Drying out and diminishing winds (especially inland) Wednesday night as high pressure builds back into the region from the west. Low temperatures will range generally be in the mid to upper 20s for many inland locations (some pockets of lower 20s in typically cooler spots) and 30s closer to the coast. Remaining dry on Thursday with high pressure centered south of the local area. A shortwave will pass north of the region, leading to a bit of increased cloudiness across the northern half of the forecast area. Otherwise we will see mostly sunny skies. Temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper 40s to around 50. Not quite as cold Thursday night with light SW flow across the region, lows will range from the upper 20s NW to the mid to upper 30s SE. High pressure slides offshore Friday morning, lingering offshore through the day on Friday. Temperatures begin to warm on Friday with highs generally in the upper 50s to around 60.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Surface high slides moves well out to sea Friday night through the weekend. Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the central and southern high plains later Friday. That system is forecast to lift E-NE along a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday from the Gulf Coast up through the Ohio Valley. It will remain dry locally through Saturday. However, by Sunday, widespread precipitation from the west appears increasingly likely to push across our area, as the deepening and increasingly dynamic low pressure system lifts across the eastern Great Lakes. This feature will drag its attendant surface cold front through the area either Sunday night or early Monday. This system looks to bring some beneficial rainfall to the region, with both the latest ensemble mean of the GEFS showing in excess of 0.50" of rainfall areawide and the EPS showing ~0.50-1.00". Will also need to keep an eye on potential a thunderstorm threat Sunday afternoon into Sunday night (potentially a few severe thunderstorms) with such a dynamic system and very strong winds just off the surface. We will fine tune these details over the coming days.
Mild temperatures ahead of the front on both Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures in the 60s (potentially upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday). Much cooler air filters into the region behind the front Monday into Monday night. Dry weather early next week as high pressure builds over the region in the wake of the front.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 655 PM EST Tuesday...

BKN-OVC cloud cover with clouds bases averaging around 5-7k ft AGL across most of the area this evening (highest coverage N of the NC/VA border). These clouds should gradually expand, thicken, and gradually lower through the night as a potent upper trough approaches from the west later tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds are light out of the NE and will gradually turn to the NW by the late morning. MVFR CIGs are likely at all terminals (outside of SBY) after ~06-09z and lingering into Wednesday afternoon. Some localized IFR CIGs are possible across central and SE VA between 10-16z, with the best chances looking to be at RIC. Kept CIGs aoa 1000 ft in the TAF at this point, however. Additionally, scattered rain showers will be possible around and after midnight, with periodic showers persisting into early Wednesday afternoon. Gradual clearing and gusty winds (gusts to 20-25 kt) by late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon from NW to SE.

Outlook: VFR conditions return to area terminals later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Dry/VFR conditions continue through the remainder of the work week. A strong cold front approaches from the west of Saturday night into Sunday, bringing our next chances for sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds.

MARINE
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Weak high pressure is overhead this afternoon, leading to onshore flow around 5-10kt. Seas are 2-3ft and waves are around 1ft. Low pressure will form off the Outer Banks overnight, strengthening as it travels ENE into the Atlantic Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will build into the region from the SW. This will result in winds becoming N-NE late tonight into early Wednesday morning at 10- 15 kt. Winds become NNW- NW and increase to at 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt by Wednesday afternoon. Winds remain elevated into Thursday morning as pressure gradient tightens over the area between the low pressure off the coast and the high pressure to the west. SCAs have been raised for everywhere but the upper rivers, where conditions are a bit more marginal. These zones may be added overnight if certainty in SCA conditions increases. Cannot rule out a few gusts to gale-force in the lower Bay and southern coastal waters, but local wind probs are low. Seas will increase quickly to 4-6 ft (3 ft nearshore) Wed aftn-early Thurs, with waves in the Bay increasing to 2-4 ft during this period.

The center of high pressure moves to the south over the area, over SC and GA, and winds gradually turn to the SW and become ~10 kt Thursday aftn, increasing to ~15 kt Thursday night. Uncertainty remains heading into the weekend as a dynamic system looks to approach the region, with elevated southerly winds ahead of the cold front and elevated westerly/northerly winds behind the front Sunday through Monday. 3-4 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves are expected until ~Sat.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633-638.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 11 mi51 min NNW 1.9G4.1 44°F 51°F30.00
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 20 mi51 min NNE 7G8 30.04
44089 24 mi25 min 53°F2 ft
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi33 min 46°F 51°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 35 mi33 min E 7.8G9.7 45°F 51°F0 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi51 min NE 4.1G5.1 48°F 49°F30.02
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 40 mi51 min SSE 2.9G4.1 46°F 50°F30.01
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 43 mi51 min NNE 1G2.9 46°F 52°F29.95
44072 47 mi33 min E 9.7G12 47°F 52°F1 ft
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi51 min ESE 4.1G5.1

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Wind History for Wachapreague, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA 8 sm16 minNNE 0310 smPartly Cloudy39°F34°F81%30.01
KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA 13 sm16 minNNE 0610 smOvercast48°F37°F66%30.01
KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA 20 sm57 mincalm10 smA Few Clouds45°F36°F70%30.03

Wind History from MFV
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
   
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Chesconessex Creek
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 05:24 AM EST     1.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:41 AM EST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:35 PM EST     1.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.6
1
am
0.7
2
am
1
3
am
1.3
4
am
1.6
5
am
1.7
6
am
1.7
7
am
1.6
8
am
1.4
9
am
1.1
10
am
0.9
11
am
0.8
12
pm
0.8
1
pm
0.9
2
pm
1.1
3
pm
1.4
4
pm
1.6
5
pm
1.8
6
pm
1.8
7
pm
1.7
8
pm
1.4
9
pm
1.1
10
pm
0.9
11
pm
0.6



Tide / Current for Guard Shore, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Guard Shore
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Tue -- 12:12 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 05:44 AM EST     1.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:25 PM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:55 PM EST     2.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Guard Shore, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.4
1
am
0.5
2
am
0.8
3
am
1.2
4
am
1.6
5
am
1.9
6
am
1.9
7
am
1.8
8
am
1.6
9
am
1.3
10
am
1
11
am
0.7
12
pm
0.6
1
pm
0.6
2
pm
0.8
3
pm
1.2
4
pm
1.6
5
pm
1.9
6
pm
2
7
pm
1.9
8
pm
1.7
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
1
11
pm
0.7




Weather Map
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