Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 10:40 AM   Moonset 12:41 AM

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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 100 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Tue night - SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.Wed night - N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Fri - E winds 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers. Sat - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

ANZ600 100 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system crosses the area later today through early Wednesday, bringing the potential for a period of elevated south winds.

FXUS61 KAKQ 140535 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 135 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Another round of showers and storms returns to the region late tonight into Tuesday, with periods of rain continuing through Wednesday. Warmer with additional showers and storms late Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 945 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing clouds tonight with showers arriving from the SW toward morning.

- Showers overspread the region Tuesday.

Latest analysis reveals 1020+mb high pressure off the mid- Atlantic coast. To the west, an upper trough continues to slowly trundle east over the middle Missouri Valley. This system, is also dragging a warm front, which extends along and just inland of the Gulf coast. High clouds continue to push into the southern half of the area this evening ahead of the approaching warm front. Vigorous convection continues this evening in vicinity of the Gulf Coast. Overrunning moisture from this feature will lift NNE overnight, reaching SW portions of the local area late tonight/early morning Tuesday, and then will spread across the entire area Tuesday afternoon.

Locally, it will be dry to start tonight, albeit with increasing and lowering clouds as PWs slowly ratchet up and WAA aloft ensues. Rain chances increase rapidly across the SW half of the area toward morning as high pressure slides farther offshore and a deeper slug of overrunning moisture arrives. Early morning lows will be mild in the upper 50s to low 60s with increasing clouds and low-level moisture.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 335 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Rain develops Tuesday with showers and a few thunderstorms.
Widespread severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy rain possible Tuesday night along the coast.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms linger on Wednesday before moving offshore overnight.

- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers persist.

Rain chances ramp up through the morning Tuesday, reaching the coast by mid to late afternoon. Still looks as if we remain on the cool side of the system for much of the day, as weak WAA aloft keeps clouds in place through the day. Those resulting weak kinematics and meager instability are still progged by CAMs and have accordingly removed thunder wording for all but the far SW corner of the area through tomorrow afternoon. However, will maintain a thunder chance Tuesday evening, extending east to southside Hampton Roads and NE NC Tuesday evening.

Highs likely don't get out of the 60s across portions of the Piedmont, while areas to the east see temps in the low to mid 70s. QPF through Tue night between 3/4" and 1" of additional rainfall, with locally higher totals possible. Secondary low pressure looks to develop across the western Carolinas Tuesday morning, with that low lifting a warm front across the region Tuesday evening. While IVT/PW fields continue to show the heaviest rainfall remaining just offshore, higher PW air does lift along the coast. CAMs continue to highlight the best chances for periods of locally heavy rainfall will be across this same coastal area Tue evening across the SE, into later Tue night/early Wed over the eastern shore.

Rain briefly tapers off Wednesday morning, especially across the S/SE, as mid-levels briefly dry out. However, model soundings continue to show saturated low-levels persist through the morning hours on Wed. Thus, expect light rain or drizzle Wed morning hangs on under continued overcast/substantial cloud cover, as the closed low to the west opens up and crosses just south of the region. Precipitation character remains a bit more stratiform through the day for most, with the 12z/13 CAMs keeping a majority of convection to our south. However, chances for storms do increase a little bit over E and NE NC, perhaps extending NE into Hampton Roads by afternoon as the weakening upper low approaches. This allows for a period of increased deep- layer shear (25-35 kt) along with some decent instability.
For that reason, will keep thunder wording in place for Wed afternoon for now.

A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the departing trough.
Will likely see some lingering clouds in NW flow aloft, and an isolated shower or two cannot be completely ruled out by afternoon, hence the lingering 20% PoP inland. Highs Thu once again in the mid/upper 70s well inland to lower/mid 70s along the coast. Lows Thu night range through the 50s to around 60 degrees.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 335 PM Monday...

Key Messages:

-Continued warm late this week with increasing chances for showers and storms later Friday into the weekend.

Shortwave ridging briefly rests over the area Friday morning.
Another system approaches late on Friday with another chance for scattered showers and storms. 12z guidance remains rather mixed with guidance still having trouble resolving the next southern stream wave lifting out of the plains. Have maintained slight to chance PoPs each day, highest during typical diurnal (late aftn/Evening) timing. Certainly doesn't look like a washout for any of these days by any stretch. As guidance gets into better agreement, expect this will become a bit clearer in the coming day or two.

Remaining near climo late week, with temps at or above climo through the weekend into early next week. Highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. Lows range through the 50s to low 60s coastal sections.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 135 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue through the morning but deteriorating conditions are expected later today-tonight as a low pressure system approaches. Showers will overspread the terminals from SW-NE from late morning (at RIC) through the evening (near the coast). Clouds lower today as well, with the potential for MVFR CIGs at RIC by late morning-midday, with the remaining sites not experiencing MVFR CIGs until late aftn/evening. CIGs eventually lower to IFR tonight at all of the terminals (w/ LIFR possible after 06z).

In addition, the showers could be heavy at times INVOF PHF/ORF/ECG between 00-06z (with a slight chc of a tstm). MVFR VSBYs are expected with brief IFR VSBYs possible in the heavier showers. The wind will mainly be SE-SSE 8-12kt, with gusts up to 20kt possible at PHF/ORF/ECG from late aftn-tonight. Periodic flight restrictions continue Wednesday with scattered showers and potentially a few aftn tstms across srn portions of the CWA
Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday. Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday.

MARINE
As of 335 PM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

-SCAs are in effect for the Ches Bay through late tonight for a brief period of elevated S to SE winds.

-Additional SCAs are likely ahead of a low pressure system Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning

High pressure is centered just off the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. Winds have shifted to the SE as of latest obs and are picking up to 10-15kt with a few gusts to 20kt. Have noticed a gusts of 20kt+ becoming more frequent in the mouth/lower bay, so have started the SCA for these zones a couple of hours early. The upper bay will go into effect later this evening. Winds will temporarily drop below SCA criteria late tonight/early Tuesday, but additional SCAs are likely needed starting Tues afternoon. A low pressure system will approach the area on Tuesday before crossing the area from west to east late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. The pressure gradient will increase ahead of the system by Tue aftn/evening, allowing S winds to increase to around 20kt (and remain elevated through most of Tue night). Local wind probs continue to show an 80- 100% chc of 18kt winds on the bay Tue night. Probs of 25kt gusts have increased for the southern coastal waters and lower bay, which are now showing 50-75% Tues night. Therefore, SCAs appear likely for the bay and ocean (and perhaps the Lower James/Currituck Sound) with this system. Breezy, but sub-SCA, northerly winds are expected behind the low through Thurs.

Afternoon buoy obs reflect 3ft seas and waves of 1-3ft. Seas will increase to ~4ft tonight and remain at 3-4ft through tomorrow. Seas increase to 4-5ft Tues night as winds come up and remain elevated into Wed night. Waves will be 1-3ft tonight, falling back to 1-2ft in the morning. Waves come back up to 1-3ft Tuesday afternoon with 4ft waves likely in the lower bay Tues night. Back to 1-2ft once winds drop off Wed.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Chesconessex Creek
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Mon -- 01:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:14 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:57 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
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Chesconessex Creek, Schooner Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

Pungoteague Creek
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Mon -- 01:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:09 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:57 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
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Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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