Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Gargatha, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:15PM Friday January 22, 2021 9:00 PM EST (02:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:26PMMoonset 1:45AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 636 Pm Est Fri Jan 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm est this evening through late Saturday night...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft late. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
ANZ600 636 Pm Est Fri Jan 22 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front crosses the local waters this evening. High pressure builds in from the northwest over the weekend. Low pressure tracks across the mid-atlantic region late Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gargatha, VA
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location: 37.78, -75.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 222324 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 624 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. Another dry frontal passage tonight will usher in cold Canadian high pressure from the northwest over the upcoming weekend. Low pressure tracks across the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. As of 615 PM EST Friday .

A dry cold front is crossing the region this evening with high pressure building in from the west behind the front overnight. Mainly clear skies expected through tomorrow morning. CAA will keep winds around 5-10 MPH overnight which will prevent perfect radiational cooling conditions. However it will still be a cold evening with lows in the low to mid 20s over most of the region and upper 20s to near 30F near the coast and along the Eastern Shore where winds will be a little stronger.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 PM EST Friday .

The high continues to build ESE on Saturday before becoming centered over the area Saturday night. The high will then move offshore during the day on Sunday. Sunny but breezy along the immediate coast and along the Eastern Shore on Saturday. With continued CAA from the NW, highs will only top out in the upper 30s-mid 40s (lowest NE/highest SW). With the high overhead Saturday night, winds will fully decouple (except for perhaps along the immediate Atlantic coast) Saturday night. With clear skies and dry air in place, temps will quickly fall after sunset, bottoming out in the upper teens to low 20s for most of the area with a few mid 20s SE.

Weak southerly return flow sets up by late Sunday. In addition, our next system starts to organize over the Plains. High temps will remain seasonably cool in the low to mid 40s (upper 30s to low 40s along the Eastern Shore). Mid/high clouds will increase across the area through the day with continued dry wx. With cloud cover over the region Sunday night, lows only drop to the low to mid 30s for most locations (upper 20s to low 30s over the Eastern Shore).

PoPs begin to increase from SW to NE late Sunday night into Monday with the highest PoPs (80-90% across the FA) Monday afternoon into the early evening. Temps are expected to remain above freezing during the duration of the precip and therefore a cold rain is expected as opposed to any winter weather. The only exception could be the far NW piedmont (Louisa/Fluvanna) where temps could hover around freezing at the onset Sunday night/early Monday morning before warming into the mid 30s by late Monday morning. In this small area, a brief coating of freezing rain cannot be ruled out. Temps warm into the upper 30s NW to the upper 40s SE for VA/MD and into the upper 40s to low 50s in NE NC by Monday afternoon. The low moves NE of the area Monday night with PoPs tapering off quickly by Tuesday morning. Total QPF of around 0.75" SW to 0.25-0.30" NE expected. Lows Monday night ranging from the low 30s NW (33-34F) to the mid 40s SE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 300 PM EST Friday .

One area of sfc low pressure, that will bring widespread rain on Monday, will be tracking out to sea early Tuesday morning with a slight chance for a few showers near the coast. Another sfc low pressure will track north of the area Tuesday with a warm front extending southeast of the center and a cold front southwest. The warm front will likely lift north across our area Tuesday morning as the sfc low tracks to our north. High temperatures will range from north to south across the area as the warm front stalls across central/northern VA and the Eastern Shore. High temperatures may be in the low 60s along and south of the VA/NC border, mid to upper 50s along the I-64 corridor, and upper 40s to low 50s north of I-64 and the Eastern Shore. Cold front move across the area with high pressure building in from the north on Tuesday night. This strong area of high pressure will over our area through the end of the week, keeping the cold air locked in place. Low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday morning will be 25-30F for most of our area, and 30-35F for Hampton Roads. Dry weather expected for Wednesday with high temperatures in the 40s.

All eyes will turn to the possibly of a winter storm on Thursday. As previously mentioned, cold air will be in place Wednesday night/Thursday with a strong sfc high pressure (~1040 mb) is centered near the Hudson Bay and extending south into Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. A deep trough will be positioned along the West Coast next week. A short wave will move onshore across southern California Tuesday and track across the U.S. Wednesday. As the shortwave approaches the East Coast, it will likely dive southeast across our area Thursday as a ridge build to our west, west of the Appalachian Mountains. At the same time, a sfc low will develop across the Gulf Coast states and track east towards the Atlantic Ocean. The sfc low pressure is expected to strengthen as it interacts with the deepening shortwave and warmer waters of the Gulf Stream off the Carolina coast. There is uncertainty in how close will the sfc low pressure will be to our area. The GFS has the sfc low the closest to the area, near Cape Hatteras. This solutions bring impactful amounts of snow to the I-95 corridor and MD Eastern Shore and mostly rain to Hampton Roads, with a mix in between across eastern VA and NC. While the ECMWF has the low pressure well off the coast, as only light snow across the area as the shortwave moves over the area.

After the storm moves off the East Coast, dry conditions will return with cold air remaining in place due to the strong high pressure mentioned earlier.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 615 PM EST Friday .

VFR through the 00Z period. Mainly clear skies expected overnight and with the exception of some scattered high clouds on Saturday much of the day should remain mostly clear. A dry cold front crosses the area this evening with westerly winds becoming N/NW after the frontal passage. Wind speeds under 10kts tonight and then becoming 10-15 kts Saturday morning and afternoon with gusts of 20-25 kts at ORF/PHF/SBY.

Outlook: High pressure continues through Sunday. Low pressure will bring rain to the region Monday into early Tuesday, with periods of sub-VFR conditions likely.

MARINE. As of 345 PM EST Friday .

Afternoon analysis shows low pressure pulling well away from the Northeast as high pressure builds into the local area from the west. Winds have been tricky today with westerly flow at the surface and aloft leading to breezy conditions and warm temperatures for land areas with some spill-over into the rivers and southern Ches Bay this morning and today. Winds are averaging westerly at 5-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas 1-3 ft.

A cold front across the Ohio Valley is poised to move through the region this evening as high pressure builds into the region. Cold advection and pressure rises on the order of 5mb/6hr will lead to increasing NW winds tonight. Winds build to 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt over most of the local waters with 20-30 kt and gusts to 35 for the northern coastal waters. SCA headlines are in effect for all waters from tonight into Saturday. Opted to include the upper James, York, and Rappahannock Rivers in SCA headlines starting at 4am and lasting into the afternoon hours. Upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for the northern-most coastal zone from early Saturday morning through the afternoon. Cold advection and the pressure gradient will slacken into Saturday night but SCA headlines will likely need some temporal extensions into the daylight hours of Sunday for the Bay and coastal waters in subsequent forecasts.

Low pressure moves over the region Monday night into Tuesday with the potential for additional marine headlines. Another area of low pressure could affect the region late in the week with the potential for more substantial marine impacts.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday for ANZ650.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/RMM NEAR TERM . CMF/RMM SHORT TERM . ERI/RMM LONG TERM . CP/ERI AVIATION . CMF MARINE . RMM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 13 mi64 min 45°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 14 mi60 min N 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 44°F1013.4 hPa (+2.9)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 29 mi60 min N 12 G 14 1013.8 hPa (+3.2)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 40 mi60 min N 4.1 G 5.1 39°F 42°F1013.8 hPa (+2.9)
44042 - Potomac, MD 45 mi36 min N 7.8 G 9.7 43°F 42°F1014.8 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 45 mi60 min N 9.9 G 12 42°F 45°F1014.4 hPa (+2.8)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 48 mi60 min NE 7 G 8.9 45°F

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA12 mi66 minN 610.00 miFair41°F23°F49%1013.5 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA14 mi65 minN 410.00 miFair39°F27°F62%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W5W5W5W5W5W3W4W3SW6SW5SW5W8W8W9W13W11W8W10NW7W4N4N4N6
1 day agoN4N5NW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE5S8S9SW10
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2 days agoSW6SW6S7SW6W3CalmSW3CalmW3W6W8NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Gargathy Neck, Virginia
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Gargathy Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:44 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:35 AM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:12 AM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:59 PM EST     2.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:07 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.92.32.52.52.31.81.41.10.70.50.611.41.82.12.22.11.71.20.80.50.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wallops Island, Virginia
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Wallops Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:44 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:15 AM EST     3.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:34 AM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:43 PM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:25 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.93.132.72.11.50.90.50.50.81.21.72.12.32.42.21.71.20.70.40.40.81.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.