Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:46AM||Sunset 7:04PM||Sunday September 19, 2021 8:36 AM CDT (13:36 UTC)||Moonrise 5:51PM||Moonset 4:08AM||Illumination 96%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozora, MOHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLSX 191047 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 547 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021
SHORT TERM. (Through Late Monday Afternoon) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021
Persistent pattern is expected to remain in place across the bi- state area to end the weekend. Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast today, mainly this afternoon across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. The closed midlevel low moving northward out of the lower Mississippi Valley has shifted a bit eastward compared to what it looked like 12-24 hours ago. As a result, PoPs have been decreased for much of the area, but particularly for east-central Missouri and parts of western Illinois. High temperatures were also boosted a couple of degrees for most locations, based on the combination of the aforementioned shift of the midlevel low/higher PoPs to the east and temperatures overperforming model guidance now the past 2 days. Most of the area should reach into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees except for parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois where more clouds and higher chances of rain will reside. In these locations, look for highs predominantly in the low 80s.
Weak low-level moisture convergence and the midlevel closed low will provide enough forcing tonight for isolated to scattered showers, but some decrease in coverage is likely by late evening as we lose daytime instability. Isolated showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder continue into Monday, mainly in south-central Illinois through the early afternoon hours. Further west, dry weather is forecast along with another warm day for mid/late September as high temperatures climb back into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.
LONG TERM. (Monday Night through Saturday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021
(Monday Night - Tuesday)
No big changes to the forecast for Monday night through Tuesday. The timing of the lead shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest and its associated cold front remain consistent. This front should enter the CWA by late evening before clearing far eastern sections of the CWA by mid-late morning on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected with this frontal passage, with the best chances of storms in northeast Missouri. The thunder threat should slowly wane as the front progresses southeastward as instability wanes nocturnally and the frontal boundary increasingly undercutting the convection with time. A secondary shortwave trough is forecast to dive east/southeast out of the lee of the Rockies early Tuesday morning and sharpen with time as it approaches the Mississippi River Tuesday evening. This feature provides increasing forcing for large-scale ascent and is forecast to yield post-frontal stratiform rain. All in all, this system should produce the first widespread rain in at least two weeks across the region, with most locations receiving on the order of a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rainfall.
The other story will be the change in temperatures. Highs should only reach the low to mid 70s for the vast majority of the area, or about 10-15 degrees cooler than 24 hours prior.
(Tuesday Night - Saturday)
Seasonably cool and dry weather is likely Tuesday night through Thursday night. The operational GFS/GEFS have trended a bit more amplified with the secondary shortwave trough moving through Tuesday night converging towards the ECMWF/EPS solution. This shortwave trough is likely to close off somewhere over the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This type of solution helps prolong the mid/upper level confluent flow across the Mississippi Valley and anchor a surface ridge. This results in slightly cooler conditions as low-level cold air advection increases along the backside of the deepening system to our east, and delays the warmup later on in the week. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the low to mid 70s, or about 5-8 degrees below normal. The coolest night is likely to be Wednesday night with the surface ridge likely just west of the Mississippi River. A clear sky with light/variable winds and very low dewpoints should help yield favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Widespread low temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees are forecast, with favored valleys likely a couple of ticks cooler.
The GEFS/EPS show rising heights and increasing low-level warm air advection ramping up on Friday as the surface ridge slides eastward into the Ohio Valley. This should lead to a quick rise in temperatures Friday afternoon back into the upper 70s to low 80s. Ensemble guidance shows another trough digging into the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday with a cold frontal passage for the mid- Mississippi Valley. Moisture return ahead of this front looks meager, and with stronger mid/upper level forcing for ascent residing well to our northeast, this front likely will pass through dry. At least slightly cooler weather is favored on Saturday behind this front, but uncertainty is high with the specifics. The deterministic ECMWF looks like a cool outlier with the strength of the trough and air mass behind it. For now, the GEFS/EPS mean solutions were favored which show a more muted cool down.
AVIATION. (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning) Issued at 545 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021
Fog will continue to impact KSUS/KCPS/KJEF early this morning before it dissipates by mid-late morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening, but mainly in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. KCPS has the best chance of seeing activity, so maintained a VCSH group. Stratus is the main concern overnight, with widespread ceilings between 800-1200 feet AGL.
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.
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|Farmington Airport, MO||20 mi||40 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||66°F||66°F||100%||1019.7 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KFAM
Wind History from FAM (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||E||E||E||NE||E||E||SE||E||SE||Calm||Calm||SE||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
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