Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ozora, MO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:58PM Thursday August 13, 2020 7:14 PM CDT (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:39PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ozora, MO
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location: 37.78, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 132338 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 638 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Slow moving thunderstorms continue develop along the stationary front draped from central North Dakota through central Iowa into eastern Missouri and southern Illinois. Driven by day time heating and a mid-level low and associated disturbance that retrograded overnight into eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois, these storms will largely linger where they form. Flash flood continues to be a concern as long as these showers and thunderstorms persist across the area, producing prodigious rainfall amounts across portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois thanks to 1.5-2" of available precipitable water.

Convection and sky cover is expected to decay with nightfall, leaving moist conditions behind. Patchy fog will be possible during the early hours of the morning tomorrow in areas where the sky is able to clear sufficiently overnight. Any fog that develops will dissipate tomorrow morning once the sun comes up and daytime mixing commences.

Overnight and into Friday the mid-level low creeps slowly eastward, centering the best lift over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. As day time heating kicks into gear on Friday, blossoming showers will be able to tap into the 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 1- 1.5" of precipitable water to generate another day of slow moving thunderstorms producing localized heavy rainfall over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Showers and thunderstorms will die off with the loss of day time heating and the movement of the mid- level low and associated vorticity maxima out of the immediate area Friday evening.

With conditions across the area largely unchanged between Wednesday and Friday, we can expect temperatures to be fairly consistent with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

MRM

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

A low-level cold front will move through the region Saturday afternoon. SREF probabilities and operational models indicate instabilities between 1000-2000 J/kg are likely with operational models indicating around 20 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear ahead of and along the front. But a lack of deep moisture convergence along the front will greatly limit precipitation chances, so have kept the NBM forecast of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day Saturday.

A high pressure system will build in behind the front, lingering through the end of the period and helping to keep the extended period largely dry. Operational and ensemble guidance all point to the lingering surface high and persistent northerly flow keeping the area in below normal temperatures through the end of the period. The CIPS Analogs from St. Louis University point to below normal temperatures sticking around until the end of next week.

MRM

AVIATION. (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Thunderstorms from earlier this afternoon are diminishing, and by 02Z they should dissipate completely. VFR conditions will prevail through the night until sometime between 09Z-11Z Friday morning. Some degree of MVFR radiational fog is expected at all sites except for KSTL, where relative humidity should remain low enough to keep fog at bay. Visibilities will likely be lower at KCPS and KSUS, where higher humidity values are forecasted.

After sunrise, low stratus should linger at these sites until 15Z, which could result in lower ceilings than those currently in the TAFs. Confidence is not high enough in IFR ceilings to warrant mention in the TAFs at this time. Once ceilings improve, VFR conditions should prevail. Thunderstorm activity is expected in southeast MO and southwest IL, but should remain southeast of the terminals.

MRB

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO- Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Warren MO- Washington MO.

IL . Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bond IL- Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL- Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.



WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmington Airport, MO20 mi18 minENE 710.00 miA Few Clouds80°F72°F76%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFAM

Wind History from FAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4S3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E5E4SE44E7E6E8NE8NE8E7NE7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmS4SE4N3CalmS4S3NE12E7S3E7NE8E8
2 days agoN4NE6E6S5SE8NW3S6S9S6S3CalmCalmCalmS3W55CalmN4W3S9CalmS5NW4SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Paducah, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.