Friday, February28, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 6:02PM Friday February 28, 2020 9:30 PM EST (02:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 10:42PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 705 Pm Est Fri Feb 28 2020
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of rain until early morning.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
ANZ600 705 Pm Est Fri Feb 28 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A trough of low pressure will cross the waters this evening. Offshore flow continues on Saturday as high pressure remains centered to the south. The high will slide off the southeast coast Sunday into Monday as the next system approaches from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 282341 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 641 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cooler weather will prevail across the region through Saturday night as high pressure slowly builds toward the area from the southwest. A warming trend begins on Sunday as the area of high pressure moves offshore. Rain chances increase by the middle part of next week as low pressure and an associated cold front approach from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 620 PM EST Friday .

Only minor tweaks to the near term sky cover and pops. Surface obs confirm that radar returns are not reaching the ground as the lower atmosphere is still too dry. However, still expect the lower atmosphere to moisten up enough this evening to allow for a few widely scattered light rain showers/sprinkles, with little to no accumulation. As the boundary layer continues to cool off overnight, wouldn't be surprised if there are a few stray flurries out there in the hours leading up to sunrise, however available moisture will be limited with PWAT values around 0.25 inches.

Previous Discussion.

As of 330 PM EST Friday .

Late afternoon weather analysis continues to show a vertically stacked low pressure system over southern Quebec, with broad upper troughing over the ern CONUS. An upper shortwave and associated weak sfc trough are approaching the area from the west. Clouds have increased ahead of the system, with radar mosaic showing some light echoes west of I-95. However, none of this is reaching the ground as the layer below 5000 feet is very dry (sfc dew points are still in the low-mid 20s on average). Low-level SW flow prevails across the area, and temperatures range from the mid 40s W to the low 50s SE. Still think these showers will increase some in coverage/intensity as the move eastward later this aftn through this evening, but the dry low-levels may inhibit some pcpn potential (what falls may be less than what some of the 12z CAMs were forecasting). Given steep low level lapse rates (~9 degrees C/km)/freezing levels around 3000 ft AGL, there is a chance that some mixing with graupel/a few snowflakes will occur if the showers become strong enough. Will maintain PoPs of around 30% across srn zones, 20-30% PoPs in central zones, and 15-20% PoPs across the north. The most likely timing for pcpn is from now to 6 PM across from the VA Piedmont to Dorchester County (MD), 5-8 PM for the central third of the area, and 7 PM-midnight for SE VA/NE NC. Will keep pcpn type as rain in the grids, since mixing w/ graupel will likely be confined to a few areas. Even if the rain mixes with graupel/snow, temperatures at the surface will be well above freezing so there will be no impacts or accumulations.

Drying out after midnight with a brief period of partial clearing before clouds increase closer to sunrise as a secondary shortwave tracks ESE from wrn VA to ern North Carolina Saturday morning. Cannot rule out a flurry or two across southern zones Saturday morning, but kept PoPs in the 10-14% range since it is very unlikely that the pcpn will be measurable. Have a mention of sprinkles/flurries in the grids from 09-15z Sat. The HRRR would suggest a little bit more than just flurries Saturday morning, but am reluctant to go with its solution considering that it was too aggressive w/ the showers this aftn at this time yesterday.

Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s-low 30s in most areas, with some mid 20s across the far NW. The aforementioned vertically stacked low will slowly track eastward toward New Brunswick/Newfoundland on Saturday, w/ dry WNW-NW flow at the surface and aloft across the area. 850 mb temperatures will only be in the -8 to -13C range on Saturday as a secondary CAA surge is progged to moves across the area. Highs Saturday range from ~40F over the Lower Ern Shore, with only low-mid 40s elsewhere. SCT CU likely develops across ern zones on Saturday, with gradual clearing across the SW.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Friday .

Surface high pressure builds from the Deep South to GA and the Carolinas Saturday night as the upper trough axis moves offshore. With clear skies and diminishing winds, temperatures will fall into the low-mid 20s in most areas, with mainly upper 20s in coastal SE VA/NE NC. A rather significant warming trend takes place from Sunday-Monday as the high moves offshore and the flow aloft becomes zonal across the ern CONUS while a srn stream upper low slowly moves eastward from California to Arizona. 850 mb temperatures are progged to warm to -4 to +2C by Sunday afternoon before rising to 3 to 6C on Monday. Cannot rule out a stray shower west of I-95 Monday afternoon, but rainfall amounts will be a few hundredths at best. Highs Sunday range from the upper 40s on the Lower Ern Shore to the low-mid 50s elsewhere. Lows will be in the 30s Sunday night. Warmer on Monday with highs mainly in the low-mid 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Friday .

Unsettled period next week as the upper level flow becomes zonal to southwest over the Mid-Atlantic region. Air mass becomes moist with PWAT values increasing to 1-1.25 inches. Several disturbances will move across the area increasing rain chances. Timing differences between models exist from mid week on in regards to how fast the upper level trough moves through the area, with the GFS about a day or so faster than the ECMWF. This will have implications for when the precip will come to an end. For now kept chance pops in for Thursday and Friday due to the uncertainty.

Temperatures will be well above normal next week with high and low temps running about 10-20 degrees above normal. Warmest day of the week will be Wednesday, where temps will range from the upper 60s N/NW to mid 70s SE.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 630 PM EST Friday .

VFR conditions through the TAF period. W/SW winds this evening 10-15 kts will relax to 5-10 kts overnight and then pick back up to 10-15 kts from late Saturday morning through the remainder of the period. SCT to BKN CU overnight and on Saturday however ceilings over 6k ft expected. There is a slight chance of a light rain shower overnight. VCSH at ECG after 03Z, with chances too low elsewhere to have any mention.

Outlook . VFR and dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure slowly builds into the area. Shower chances increase by the middle of next week with the possibility of degraded flight conditions.

MARINE. As of 330 PM EST Friday .

SCA's remain up through 06Z for the Ches Bay/ Currituck Sound and lwr James river for the few hr surge progged behind the trof as it crosses the area this eve. Gusty SW winds cont late this aftrn ahead of it, but expect a few hr "lull" in the wind speeds early this eve as the daytime mixing eases ahead of the trof. No headlines along the coast as wind speeds should remain blo 25 kts tonite.

Yet another CAA surge and deep mixing progged Sat aftrn and nite behind a secondary trof that crosses the area. This will likely need SCA's over most of the marine area with gusts 25-30 kts over the coastal waters. Waves build 2-4 ft, seas build 3-5 ft.

Winds diminish Sun then become SW Mon and Tue as high pressure moves offshore. Speeds aob 20 kts.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650.

SYNOPSIS . ERI NEAR TERM . CMF/ERI SHORT TERM . CP/ERI LONG TERM . CMF AVIATION . CMF/ERI MARINE . MPR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi42 min W 9.9 G 11 44°F 44°F1013.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi42 min W 14 G 18
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi30 min SW 14 G 19 43°F 44°F1 ft1013.1 hPa (+1.4)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi60 min WSW 4.1 44°F 1014 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi30 min W 9.7 G 9.7 45°F1017.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi42 min WSW 13 G 17 43°F 44°F1012.4 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi48 min WSW 8 G 9.9 43°F 46°F1012.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi42 min W 9.9 G 11 1014.4 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi42 min W 12 G 16 47°F 46°F1013.4 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi42 min W 16 G 19 47°F 1014.1 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi42 min W 16 G 19 45°F 44°F1012.4 hPa
44072 48 mi30 min N 14 G 16 47°F 45°F1 ft

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi35 minSW 610.00 miFair39°F26°F60%1013.9 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi35 minWSW 410.00 miFair40°F27°F60%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXSA

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmCalmNE3NE3N3E5E7E4E6E7E4E6E8E8E6

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:36 AM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:20 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:51 PM EST     1.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:27 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.611.41.71.71.61.30.90.60.30.20.20.50.91.31.61.61.51.30.90.60.30.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:45 AM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:28 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:00 PM EST     1.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:59 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:35 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.511.41.71.71.61.310.60.30.20.20.40.81.21.51.61.61.310.60.30.10.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.