Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:52PM Friday December 6, 2019 3:39 PM EST (20:39 UTC) Moonrise 1:58PMMoonset 1:27AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 247 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Saturday through Saturday afternoon...
Through 7 pm..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt, becoming N after midnight, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Rain likely.
ANZ600 247 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front crosses the area tonight with high pressure returning for the weekend. Low pressure tracks across the great lakes region early next week, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 061733 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1233 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front crosses the area tonight with high pressure returning for the weekend. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes region early next week, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1025 AM EST Friday .

Late morning upper air analysis shows weak troughing across the ern CONUS, w/ two distinct shortwaves tracking ewd: one across the nrn Great Lakes and another across the Deep South. At the surface, high pressure is now off the NC coast, with ~1012 mb low pressure over wrn NY. A trailing cold front extended SW from Lake Erie to the srn Mississippi River Valley. Mid-high level clouds have increased across the area in advance of the upper trough axis. However, the 12z WAL/GSO/RNK soundings show a dry layer from around 700 mb to the sfc. Return SW flow results in a mild, mostly cloudy, and breezy (at times) day today. Highs range from the mid 50s north to near 60F SE.

The cold front will cross the area tonight. As the upper trough axis crosses the region late this aftn-tonight, some very weak mid-level ascent will move through as well. However, the low levels will still remain quite dry (w/ some moistening right with the FROPA). Cannot rule out a stray shower from late aftn through the first part of tonight (mainly across srn VA, NE NC, and the Lower Ern Shore . where PoPs are in the slight chc range). Elsewhere, expect a dry FROPA. Cloud cover will decrease from north to south through the night. Winds become north tonight allowing for some CAA to set in. Lows by 12Z Sat mainly in the 30s except near 40 SE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 340 AM EST Friday .

The cold front will cross the area tonight. Little if any lift is noted to generate pcpn but won't rule out a stray shwr/sprinkle across the sern portions of the fa with the fropa. Otw, decreasing clouds north-south thru the nite. Winds become north allowing for some CAA to set in. Lows by 12Z Sat in the 30s except near 40 se.

Sunny but cool Sat as high pressure builds tracks north of the area. Highs in the mid-upr 40s except arnd 50 ivof Albemarle Sound. Clear Sat night as the ridge axis moves overhead. Lows in the mid-upr 20s except 30-35 near the water. The high pushes off the NE coast Sun. This allows moisture to increase through the day as wind become SSE. Increasing clouds and milder with highs upr 40s NW to upr 50s SE.

Moisture quickly overspreads the area Sun nite due to a s/w trof moving up from SSE. PoPs of 30-50% during the evening increase to ~60% across the west after midnight. Lows upr 30s NW to near 50 SE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Thursday .

The aforementioned trough aloft quickly amplifies across the Plains early next week as sfc low pressure deepens as it tracks from the Plains to the Great Lakes. A series of upper disturbances will continue to track toward/across the region through Tue as the associated cold front slowly approaches from the W/NW. Strong WAA will continue through Tue (850 mb temps rising to 8-12C by 12z Tue) under deep-layered SW flow. With the area likely remaining in the warm sector from Mon-Tue, expect a good chc of (occasional) showers to continue from Mon through Tue. Have high chc-likely PoPs through much of this time period, as it is too far out to be specific with the exact timing of each occurrence of showers. Mild Monday w/ highs in the upper 50s to around 60F in the piedmont west of RIC, with low-mid 60s E of I-95.

The frontal passage likely holds off until sometime during the latter half of the day on Tue. As a result, look for highs well into the 60s on Tuesday . with the potential for some low 70s in Hampton Roads/NE NC with any aftn sun. High-end chc PoPs continue through the day on Tue with some post-frontal RA possible Tue night-early Wed (especially SE). Lows Tue night range from the mid 30s north/west to the low 40s in SE VA/NE NC.

Strong high pressure builds into the Great Lakes by midweek, but it quickly migrates eastward (becoming centered over New England by Thursday evening). This will result in a short-lived period of below average temperatures on Wed/Thu, due to cold Canadian air sweeping across the region behind the departing front. Forecast highs are mainly in the 40s on Wed/Thu, although mid- upper 30s are possible across central/nrn zones. Model consensus is forecasting the high to move offshore of the New England Coast on Fri as low pressure develops near the Gulf Coast (which will likely impact the ern CONUS by next weekend).

AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1230 PM EST Friday .

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. Mid/high level clouds (CIGS 8-15k feet) have overspread the area early this aftn ahead of an upper shortwave/approaching cold front. CIGs lower to 5-7k feet by this evening as the cold front nears the area. There is a slight (15-20%) chc of SHRAs at SBY/ECG from 00-06z Sat, but did not include any mention of pcpn in the TAFs (even if SHRAs do occur . conditions will remain VFR). The other terminals should remain dry through the TAF period. The front crosses the area from N to S from 03-09z Sat. Skies clear out from N to S Saturday morning. SKC conditions then prevail through the day on Sat. SW winds will continue to gust to 15-20 kt through this aftn before diminishing to 7-12 kt this evening. Winds turn to the W tonight before eventually becoming N-NNE Sat AM. NNE winds could gust to 20 kt at ORF/ECG on Sat, with a few gusts to 15 kt possible elsewhere.

OUTLOOK . High pressure builds into the area from Sat aftn-Sat night before moving offshore on Sun. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the weekend. Periods of showers are then expected from late Sun night-Tue night as low pressure tracks well to our NW (which will drag a strong cold front through the region). Degraded flight conditions are likely during this time period (due to both CIGs/VSBYs).

MARINE. As of 345 AM EST Friday .

Light onshore flow this morning under 5 kts as high pressure sits just off the Carolina coast. Waves in the bay are less than a foot and seas in the near shore coastal waters are only around a foot. SW winds will increase beginning this morning ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross the area overnight Friday into early Saturday. Expect winds 10-15 kts in the bay and 15-20 kts in the middle and lower coastal waters. SCA goes into effect for the northern coastal waters off the eastern shore at 18Z today as gusts this afternoon will be 25-30 kts. Waves in the bay build to 2-3 ft and seas 2-4 ft northern coastal waters and 2-3 ft southern coastal waters.

Winds become N/NW late Friday into early Saturday after the front crosses the area waters. Winds increase to 15-20 kts in the bay with gusts to 25 kts, and 20-25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts in the coastal waters. Waves in the bay build to 2-4 ft and seas build to 3- 5 ft in the middle and northern coastal waters and 4-6 ft in the southern coastal waters. SCA will be in effect for the bay, rivers, coastal waters, and Currituck sound from early Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon, lingering into Saturday evening for the southern coastal waters and Currituck sound.

Winds along with waves/seas will subside by late Saturday night as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure builds into the area for the remainder of the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ635>638-654. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . ERI/MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . ERI AVIATION . ERI MARINE . CMF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi57 min WSW 8 G 9.9 53°F 45°F1018.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi51 min WSW 8 G 13
44042 - Potomac, MD 24 mi33 min 51°F 47°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi69 min SSW 2.9 55°F 1020 hPa34°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi51 min SW 9.9 G 13 52°F 47°F1018.1 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi57 min SW 5.1 G 7 52°F 48°F1017 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi51 min S 13 G 14 1020.5 hPa
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi33 min 52°F 1020.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi57 min SSW 13 G 16 54°F 49°F1019.5 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi51 min SW 16 G 19 53°F 1020.3 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi57 min SSW 12 G 14 49°F 44°F1018.7 hPa
44072 48 mi39 min WNW 14 G 16 52°F 48°F2 ft

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi44 minSSW 510.00 miFair56°F31°F41%1019 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi44 minSW 710.00 miOvercast54°F34°F48%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXSA

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S4S5S3S5S6S7S6S4
1 day agoCalmS5SW3SW4W3SW3SW4SW4SW4SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmW9
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2 days agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8SW5SW9SW8SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
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Fri -- 01:26 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:29 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM EST     1.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:02 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.30.30.50.81.21.51.61.61.51.20.90.70.50.40.50.71.11.41.61.61.41.2

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:27 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:37 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:30 AM EST     1.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:10 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:40 PM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.30.30.40.81.11.41.61.61.51.310.70.50.40.50.711.31.51.61.51.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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