Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:01PM Saturday August 17, 2019 9:09 AM EDT (13:09 UTC) Moonrise 8:25PMMoonset 7:09AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 628 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Today..W winds 5 kt early this morning, becoming light and variable, then becoming se 5 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 628 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will remain just off the coast through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 170822
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
422 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over southeast
virginia and northeast north carolina today into Sunday. Weak
high pressure will be over the area on Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 400 am edt Saturday...

a frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over SE va and
ne nc during today. Pops will be 15-30%. Highs today will
generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with mid 80s along
the atlantic coast of the ERN shore.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
As of 400 am edt Saturday...

the frontal boundary will gradually get pushed to the SE very
late tonight through sun, as upper ridging starts to build in
from the w. However, the front does linger near the coast, and
the 17 00z gfs ECMWF nam continue to show a wave tracking along
the front over the coastal carolinas later tonight into sun
aftn. Pops of 20-50% will be over SE portions of the area for
the first part of sun. Lows tonight 70-75, followed by hotter
conditions sun, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and
potentially some mid 90s well inland.

The frontal boundary pushes well off the coast Sun night into
mon, as the upper ridge builds in from the w. Pops will be 15-30%
mon aftn with hot and humid conditions developing. Forecast highs
on Mon are 90-95, with upper 80s at the coast, after morning
lows of 70-75.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday...

models continue to show a breaking down of the western atlantic
and western us ridges over the eastern third of the us next
week with a weakness developing in the ridge along the
southeastern us coast by midweek before a northern stream trough
slides across the great lake and northeastern us late in the
week. This is similar to yesterdays runs, although the timing on
the sfc cold front associated with the northern stream trough
is a bit slower than yesterday. Overall, this should lead to a
gradual increase in moisture and convection from Tuesday into
Thursday in advance of the front with more organized
precipitation with the cold frontal passage on Friday. How are
south the front will make it is still in doubt the models begin
to show the western atlantic ridge building back westward late
in the period and this could stall the front across SRN va nrn
nc. So have left pops across this area for Friday.

For temperatures, guidance has trended a little cooler with
this model cycle, with readings generally near normal next week
with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 most days and lows in
the upper 60 to mid 70s.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 300 am edt Saturday...

early this morning, conditions ranged fromVFR (ric) to ifr
(sby) at the TAF sites. Isolated showers were over the ERN shore
down into coastal NE nc. A frontal boundary will remain nearly
stationary over SE va and NE nc today into sun, keeping the
best chc for showers tstms over this area, but isolated activity
will still be possible anywhere over the CWA this aftn evening
and Sun aftn evening. MVFR ifr conditions, will continue to be a
possibility at the TAF sites later tonight into Sun morning.

MainlyVFR conditions are expected to prevail Mon and tue,
although a low probability of aftn evening showers tstms will
continue.

Marine
As of 140 am edt Saturday...

no headlines expected through early in the upcoming week. Hi
pres will remain nearly stationary off the coast. Very weak low
pres tracking NE along off the NE nc coast is shown on a couple
of the models during Sun which may briefing result in a period
of ene winds... Otw... Mainly se-sw winds AOB 10 kt through mon.

Wind probs continue to show less AOB 5% for speeds greater than
15 kt. Waves during the period 1-2 ft and seas generally 2-4
ft.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Tmg
short term... Ajz tmg
long term... Ess
aviation... Tmg
marine... Alb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi76 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 82°F1015.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi70 min W 2.9 G 4.1
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi100 min Calm 73°F 1017 hPa73°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi70 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 81°F 83°F1015.1 hPa (+0.7)
NCDV2 39 mi76 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 76°F 86°F1014.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi70 min 1016.2 hPa (+0.7)
44041 - Jamestown, VA 42 mi40 min 75°F 83°F1016.3 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi70 min W 5.1 G 6 75°F 81°F1015.3 hPa (+1.1)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi70 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.4)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi70 min WNW 7 G 8.9 76°F 1016.2 hPa (+1.2)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi76 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 82°F1015.9 hPa
44072 48 mi40 min N 7.8 G 9.7 77°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA11 mi95 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist71°F71°F100%1015.9 hPa
West Point, Middle Peninsula Regional Airport, VA21 mi1.9 hrsN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F71°F100%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KXSA

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4--NE4NE6NE5NE5NE3S3NE4SE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE8NE5NE4E7E7N5NE5CalmE6--SE7E5E3CalmSE7NE4--------CalmN3Calm--
2 days agoW4W4W3NW3CalmCalmN3CalmSE5N3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:42 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:28 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:05 PM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:37 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.722.11.91.61.20.80.40.20.20.511.41.821.91.61.30.90.50.30.30.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:51 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:36 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:14 PM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.722.121.71.30.80.50.20.20.50.91.41.821.91.71.30.90.60.30.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.