Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warsaw, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:35PM Monday June 21, 2021 3:16 AM EDT (07:16 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 2:06AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 259 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Through 7 am..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers late.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft, diminishing to less than 1 foot and light chop late.
Wed night..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop.
Fri..NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to less than 1 foot and light chop in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves less than 1 foot and light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 259 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Tropical depression claudette will strengthen as it exits off the north carolina coast today. A cold front crosses the waters on Tuesday. High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warsaw, VA
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location: 37.82, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 210557 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 157 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Cyclone Claudette is forecast to continue to move east-northeast this morning, tracking just to the south of the area before moving offshore by the afternoon. A fairly strong early summer cold front crosses the area from Tuesday to Tuesday evening.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 155 AM EDT Monday .

The latest GOES IR/WV satellite channels (and the latest NHC intermediate advisory) show that TC Claudette has now moved to a position nearly 100 miles SSW of Raleigh, NC. Meanwhile, a ~996 mb sfc low is over the Great Lakes, with a fairly strong early summer cold front extending SW into the srn Plains. It is still dry (but very muggy) across the local area with temperatures and dew points in the low to mid 70s. The deepest convection is along/just off the coast of SE NC, which is well to the southeast of the center of the storm. However, there are some showers (with embedded thunder) that are east of the center and moving N toward NE NC. This next round of showers and occasional storms is expected to increase a bit in coverage as it moves into NE NC and SE VA by 3-6 AM this morning as the center of Claudette approaches the Albemarle Sound from the WSW. These showers (and isolated storms) will move NE by mid to late morning, possibly impacting the VA Eastern Shore. A brief tornado or two will be possible during the 3-8 AM timeframe with any convection NE of the low as a south-southwesterly 925 mb jet increases in advance of Claudette and surface winds back from the SSW to SSE. The greatest chc of seeing a tornado is in NE NC, but a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out in far SE VA. Showers/storms will pull offshore by late morning as Claudette moves NE off the NC coast and out to sea.

Skies clear out behind Claudette from W to E late this morning into the afternoon. This will allow temps to soar into the low to mid 90s (hottest temperatures are expected across wrn portions of the FA). With afternoon dew points dropping into the upper 60s-70F central/west and low 70s near the coast, expect heat indices to top out in the upper 90s to low 100s. There is a slight chance of an isolated shower/tstm in areas (roughly) along and west of I-95 in addition to the Lower MD Ern Shore from very late this aftn through much of the evening. Cannot rule out localized damaging wind gusts with any tstm that does form late this aftn/this evening given the strong surface heating and drying mid levels (SPC has a Marginal Risk for roughly the NW half of the area). However, widespread severe wx is not expected late this aftn/this evening. Any lingering convection wanes overnight and the aforementioned (relatively strong) cold front is progged to move to a position just NW of the FA by late tonight. Lows tonight in the low 70s NW to the mid 70s SE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 415 PM EDT Sunday .

Skies clear out behind Claudette from W to E late Mon morning into Mon afternoon. This will allow temps to soar into the low to mid 90s Mon. With dews still around 70F, expect heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s (97-103F). There is a slight chance of an isolated shower/storm in the Northern Neck or northern portion of the Eastern Shore late Mon afternoon into early Mon evening. Lows Mon night in the upper 60s to around 70 NW to the mid 70s SE.

A strong summer cold front arrives Tues but will slow as it moves through central VA. This will result in training showers/storms through the day with potentially heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall totals of 0.75-1.5 inches will be possible from central VA SE. Lighter rainfall totals of 0.5 to 0.75 inches will be possible in the NW piedmont and MD counties of the Eastern Shore. Isolated flash flooding with training storms will be possible. Highs Tues will range from the upper 70s to around 80F NW to the mid 80s SE. Showers/storms end from NW to SE late Tues but isolated showers will be possible in SE VA/NE NC through early Tues night. Lows Tues night in the mid 50s NW and mid 60s SE.

Mostly sunny with partly cloudy skies SE Wed and drier. Highs will also be cooler on Wed in the mid to upper 70s. Lows Wed night in the low to mid 50s for most and upper 50s to around 60 SE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 500 PM EDT Sunday .

Continued mainly dry for Thu as high pressure settles off the east coast from southern New England to the northern mid- Atlantic. Farther south off the southern mid-Atlantic and Carolina coast, the models maintain that the front stalls and retrogrades back to the NW later thu into Fri. The 12Z/20 GFS is more aggressive than the remaining guidance at bringing moisture back into the local area. The blends suggest keeping PoPs closer to 20% across NE NC Thu aftn and along the coast through Fri 18Z, then will have the chance for some diurnal PoPs of 15-30% Fri aftn. Highs Thu are forecast to be in the upper 70s/around 80F at the coast and into the lower 80s inland with partly sunny skies in the SE and mostly sunny conditions elsewhere. Lows Thu night in the upper 50s well inland and lower-mid 60s near the coast. Highs Fri into the lower-mid 80s.

The high gradually becomes centered well offshore into the weekend as an upper trough is slow to approach from the west. Chances for diurnal convection get higher Sat and especially Sunday as a cold front begins to get closer to the local area. Highs Sat-Sun will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 155 AM EDT Monday .

TD Claudette is centered just north of the NC/SC border early this morning. Showers/tstms associated with the system are still over SE NC (and near the SC coast) as of 0545z. VFR conditions still prevail at PHF/SBY, but have started to see MVFR CIGs at RIC/ORF/ECG. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower this morning as Claudette tracks ENE toward the NC Outer Banks. Prevailing MVFR CIGs are expected at all terminals except SBY by 08-09z, with IFR possible this morning at ECG and RIC. Moderate to occasionally heavy showers (with embedded tstms) will likely move into ECG by around 09z (with light-moderate showers at ORF/PHF by 10-12z). The probability of showers is only 20% at RIC and SBY. Pcpn should end by 15z. Any showers and embedded tstms have the potential to produce IFR/LIFR VSBY in heavy rain. The wind is expected to shift to the SSE-SE as Claudette approaches and then switch to the W (briefly NNW at ECG), then SW by this afternoon. Conditions are expected to quickly improve this afternoon as Claudette tracks offshore. There is a low (~15%) chc of tstms at RIC/SBY from 21-03z this evening.

VFR/mainly dry for most of tonight. Widespread showers/tstms (and flight restrictions) are expected Tuesday with a strong cold front. Dry conditions are expected by midweek as high pressure builds into the region. A slight chc of mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms returns later in the week.

MARINE. As of 500 PM EDT Sunday .

SCA's have been raised through 10pm for the Bay with a bit of a southerly surge ongoing across the region. Otherwise, based on collaboration with NHC, tropical headlines remain confined south of the local area given a consensus track of Claudette just south of the CWA. Winds will be highest to the right of the track and highest gusts are only expected to 25-30kt across even the NC waters. SCA's remain in place on Mon for the coastal waters S of Cape Charles VA and for the Currituck Sound. Seas currently 3-4 ft will build to 4-5 ft Mon morning over these coastal zones. With Claudette then well offshore by mon aftn, should see winds shift to the NW for a few hrs before relaxing to 10-15 kt. A moderate risk for rip currents will be in effect for all beaches on Mon. Given the track, and the expected dominant periods of only 7-8 sec, did not go with a high risk at this time.

A strong cold front (for summer) crosses the waters late Tue. There will likely be a period with higher winds as the wind directions shift to the NW later Tue, then the consensus shows as colder air pushes in from the N, a secondary surge is likely for Wed morning. SCA's will be possible during this timeframe. Then generally sub-SCA conditions are expected Wed night through Fri (although seas may remain elevated off the NC coast).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/RMM NEAR TERM . ERI SHORT TERM . RMM LONG TERM . ERI/LKB AVIATION . AJZ/ERI MARINE . LKB/MPR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi46 min SW 9.9 G 12 76°F 77°F1008 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi46 min S 1.9 G 6
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 28 mi46 min SSW 1 75°F 1009 hPa72°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 29 mi40 min SSW 14 G 18 74°F 78°F2 ft1009.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 37 mi46 min SSW 8 G 9.9 75°F 76°F1007.8 hPa
NCDV2 39 mi46 min SW 4.1 G 6 74°F 78°F1007.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 41 mi46 min S 23 G 25 1009.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi46 min SSW 8 G 11 76°F 76°F1008.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 43 mi46 min SSE 8.9 G 11 75°F 1007.8 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 43 mi46 min SSW 15 G 18 76°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 44 mi46 min SSW 13 G 16 77°F 79°F1008 hPa
44072 48 mi40 min SSW 14 G 16 74°F 76°F2 ft

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KXSA

Wind History from XSA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SW7SW6S4CalmS3CalmCalmS4S5S4S6------------SW8W6Calm----SW5
1 day agoW6N3N4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS5S6S6SE9S6
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Tide / Current Tables for Bowlers Rock, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Bowlers Rock
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:00 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:56 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:58 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.30.90.40.100.20.511.51.71.71.51.10.70.30-0.10.10.51.11.72.12.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wares Wharf, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Wares Wharf
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:08 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:04 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:07 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.40.90.50.200.10.511.41.71.71.51.20.80.40-0.100.511.62.12.3

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