Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmyra, VA
December 10, 2023 6:59 PM EST (23:59 UTC)
Sunrise 7:17AM Sunset 4:55PM Moonrise 4:51AM Moonset 3:02PM
ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 633 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt... Increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 ft after midnight. Rain with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt... Diminishing to 25 kt late. Waves 3 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
.gale warning in effect through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt... Increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 ft after midnight. Rain with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt... Diminishing to 25 kt late. Waves 3 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 633 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a strong frontal system will impact the waters through Monday. High pressure will return Tuesday through Thursday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a strong frontal system will impact the waters through Monday. High pressure will return Tuesday through Thursday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 102329 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 629 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area this evening into tonight.
Widespread rain is expected across the area ahead of and behind the front, with locally heavy rain possible at times. Scattered thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, are also possible.
Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front. Cooler air will move in behind the front with a changeover to snow possible for some. Drier weather returns Monday through Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 350 PM EST Sunday...
Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms across S portions of the area continue to increase in coverage this afternoon into this evening as a cold front approaches from the W. A Tornado Watch has been issued for most of the FA outside of the far W Piedmont and NE 1/3 of the area until 8 PM due to the potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Expect the severe potential to ramp up over the next few hours into this evening as the cold front approaches, especially if a triple point moves into the area. For now, the greatest threat for severe storms is S/SE VA and NE NC where MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg. Confidence decreases with N extent due to lower CAPE. Several storms along a line extending from Raleigh NNE to South Hill have occasionally been strengthening and have shown at least broad rotation. Will continue to monitor these storms as they move NNE/NE into the FA later this afternoon. As the LLJ ramps up this evening along with the trough becoming negatively tilted, storms may strengthen along the cold front. The severe threat ends from NW to SE as the cold front pushes ESE between 10 PM to 2 AM.
Apart from the severe threat, PWATs have increased to 1.5-1.7" across the area (very anomalous for December). Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3" are expected with this system with localized higher amounts of 3-4". The general consensus among the HRRR/CAMs is for the heaviest swath to set up in a SW to NE orientation roughly from Mecklenburg to the Northern Neck with the Tri-cities in the swath. Localized flash flooding is possible in areas of training storms, especially in urban areas.
However, due to the drought, the soil can handle quite a bit of rainfall and therefore this will be a beneficial rain for most.
Lastly, expect temps to drop rapidly along with gusty NW winds with gusts of 35-45+ mph behind the cold front. Make sure any outdoor holiday decorations are secured and don't blow away. Stratiform precip will continue into early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around a strengthening low pressure system as it moves up the coast. The fgen band is expected to be strong with enough lift for dynamic cooling within the NW portion of the rain band. As such, CAMs continue to show the potential for rain to change over to snow late tonight into early Monday morning.
However, temps are expected to be very marginal with forecast soundings showing sfc temps/dew points around 34F under the snow bands. While dynamic cooling may drop temps to 33-34F, as soon as precip rates lighten up, temps are expected to rise to around 35-36F with any snow ending as light rain/drizzle. Given the warm, wet ground/road temps along with temps likely not dropping below freezing, if there is accumulation, it will be likely be mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces with less of a road impact. The highest confidence in a changeover to snow is across the N Piedmont E to the Northern Neck (including the Richmond metro). Since this will be a rate- driven event, confidence is low regarding any accumulation. Would not be surprised if someone ends up with around an inch of snow (best chances in the N portions of the FA N of Richmond) but most areas will likely see less. While roads should remain relatively clear/wet, the snow will be heavy wet snow and come down in a heavy burst, likely limiting visibility. The precipitation is forecast to end from W to E between 6-8 AM. Lows are forecast to fall to around 33F NW to the upper 30s SE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 350 PM EST Sunday...
As the low moves offshore Mon, drier air filters into the region with clear skies by the late morning/early afternoon. Temps will be cool Mon and Tues with highs in the upper 40s N to lower 50s S under clear skies due to high pressure overhead. Wed will be slightly milder in the lower 50s N to mid 50s S. Given high pressure overhead, cold temps are expected each night with lows in the low- mid 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast Mon night and mid-upper 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Tues night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM EST Sunday...
High pressure dominates the local weather through Sat with dry conditions expected. The GFS shows a coastal low impacting the area Sun into Mon while the EURO is dry and the Canadian is in between (only impacting SE portions of the FA). Given low confidence, have stuck with NBM PoPs which show PoPs increasing Sun into Mon.
Otherwise, a cold front moves through Wed into Wed night with colder weather on Thu with highs in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s Fri, lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sat, and mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun. Lows in the low-mid 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Wed night, lower 20s inland with lower 30s along the coast Thu night (some isolated upper teens possible), upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Fri night, lower 30s inland to upper 30s to around 40F along the coast Sat night, and upper 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 620 PM EST Sunday...
A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will persist through tonight, though anticipate most terminals becoming IFR after 03z.
Currently, winds are S at 5-10kt inland, with speeds of 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt at ORF and SBY. Rounds of rain will continue through the night ahead of and behind a strong cold front. Occasional drops in VIS will be likely in any steadier rain. As the front pushes through from NW to SE beginning after 03z, winds will abruptly shift out of the NW and increase to 15-25kt with gusts up to 25-30+ kt. The highest speeds will be likely at ORF and along the coast. LLWS is expected as well into early tonight at SBY, ORF, and ECG. As the storm system moves away from the local area late into early Mon morning, rain may mix with or change to all snow across the Piedmont, with a rain/snow mix possible at RIC (10-12z but maybe as early as 9z). Rain/snow tapers off by 13z with clearing expected Mon and a return to VFR conditions. NW winds will gradually subside through the day.
Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...
Forecast remains on track this afternoon with a strong cold front approaching from the west. Southerly flow is streaming in across the area, though remaining within low-end SCA thresholds so far. Winds are currently 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt, with seas around 3-5ft and waves of 1-2ft. Expect all of these values to increase as we go through the evening hours as the cold front gets closer, with seas becoming 7-9ft north and 6-8ft south, and waves of 4-5ft in the Mouth of the Bay and 3-4ft in the lower and middle Bay.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening and early overnight hours ahead and along the front. Strong, erratic gusts will be possible in the stronger cells.
The front looks to push through the local waters after 10pm. This will result in an abrupt wind shift out of the northwest. All waters will see wind speeds increase along and behind the frontal passage, thus, Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters, Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound for late this evening into mid-day Monday. Expect northwesterly winds of 25-30kt with gusts upwards of 35-45kt possible during this period. Currently think those highest gusts will occur with the initial surge behind the frontal passage as the stronger flow aloft mixes down to the surface. Winds will subside slightly back into SCA thresholds (18-24kt with gusts to 25-30kt) after mid-day/early afternoon on Monday. SCAs will be needed during this time frame as it will take until later Monday evening or thereafter to decrease winds back to 10-15kt and below any criteria. Beyond this system, high pressure will linger over the region through late week with much improved boating conditions.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630- 631-654-656.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630-631-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632- 634>638-658.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-638-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 629 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area this evening into tonight.
Widespread rain is expected across the area ahead of and behind the front, with locally heavy rain possible at times. Scattered thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, are also possible.
Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front. Cooler air will move in behind the front with a changeover to snow possible for some. Drier weather returns Monday through Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 350 PM EST Sunday...
Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms across S portions of the area continue to increase in coverage this afternoon into this evening as a cold front approaches from the W. A Tornado Watch has been issued for most of the FA outside of the far W Piedmont and NE 1/3 of the area until 8 PM due to the potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Expect the severe potential to ramp up over the next few hours into this evening as the cold front approaches, especially if a triple point moves into the area. For now, the greatest threat for severe storms is S/SE VA and NE NC where MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg. Confidence decreases with N extent due to lower CAPE. Several storms along a line extending from Raleigh NNE to South Hill have occasionally been strengthening and have shown at least broad rotation. Will continue to monitor these storms as they move NNE/NE into the FA later this afternoon. As the LLJ ramps up this evening along with the trough becoming negatively tilted, storms may strengthen along the cold front. The severe threat ends from NW to SE as the cold front pushes ESE between 10 PM to 2 AM.
Apart from the severe threat, PWATs have increased to 1.5-1.7" across the area (very anomalous for December). Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3" are expected with this system with localized higher amounts of 3-4". The general consensus among the HRRR/CAMs is for the heaviest swath to set up in a SW to NE orientation roughly from Mecklenburg to the Northern Neck with the Tri-cities in the swath. Localized flash flooding is possible in areas of training storms, especially in urban areas.
However, due to the drought, the soil can handle quite a bit of rainfall and therefore this will be a beneficial rain for most.
Lastly, expect temps to drop rapidly along with gusty NW winds with gusts of 35-45+ mph behind the cold front. Make sure any outdoor holiday decorations are secured and don't blow away. Stratiform precip will continue into early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around a strengthening low pressure system as it moves up the coast. The fgen band is expected to be strong with enough lift for dynamic cooling within the NW portion of the rain band. As such, CAMs continue to show the potential for rain to change over to snow late tonight into early Monday morning.
However, temps are expected to be very marginal with forecast soundings showing sfc temps/dew points around 34F under the snow bands. While dynamic cooling may drop temps to 33-34F, as soon as precip rates lighten up, temps are expected to rise to around 35-36F with any snow ending as light rain/drizzle. Given the warm, wet ground/road temps along with temps likely not dropping below freezing, if there is accumulation, it will be likely be mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces with less of a road impact. The highest confidence in a changeover to snow is across the N Piedmont E to the Northern Neck (including the Richmond metro). Since this will be a rate- driven event, confidence is low regarding any accumulation. Would not be surprised if someone ends up with around an inch of snow (best chances in the N portions of the FA N of Richmond) but most areas will likely see less. While roads should remain relatively clear/wet, the snow will be heavy wet snow and come down in a heavy burst, likely limiting visibility. The precipitation is forecast to end from W to E between 6-8 AM. Lows are forecast to fall to around 33F NW to the upper 30s SE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 350 PM EST Sunday...
As the low moves offshore Mon, drier air filters into the region with clear skies by the late morning/early afternoon. Temps will be cool Mon and Tues with highs in the upper 40s N to lower 50s S under clear skies due to high pressure overhead. Wed will be slightly milder in the lower 50s N to mid 50s S. Given high pressure overhead, cold temps are expected each night with lows in the low- mid 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast Mon night and mid-upper 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Tues night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM EST Sunday...
High pressure dominates the local weather through Sat with dry conditions expected. The GFS shows a coastal low impacting the area Sun into Mon while the EURO is dry and the Canadian is in between (only impacting SE portions of the FA). Given low confidence, have stuck with NBM PoPs which show PoPs increasing Sun into Mon.
Otherwise, a cold front moves through Wed into Wed night with colder weather on Thu with highs in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s Fri, lower 50s NW to upper 50s SE Sat, and mid 50s NW to lower 60s SE Sun. Lows in the low-mid 20s inland with low-mid 30s along the coast Wed night, lower 20s inland with lower 30s along the coast Thu night (some isolated upper teens possible), upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast Fri night, lower 30s inland to upper 30s to around 40F along the coast Sat night, and upper 30s NW to lower 40s SE Sun night.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 620 PM EST Sunday...
A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions will persist through tonight, though anticipate most terminals becoming IFR after 03z.
Currently, winds are S at 5-10kt inland, with speeds of 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt at ORF and SBY. Rounds of rain will continue through the night ahead of and behind a strong cold front. Occasional drops in VIS will be likely in any steadier rain. As the front pushes through from NW to SE beginning after 03z, winds will abruptly shift out of the NW and increase to 15-25kt with gusts up to 25-30+ kt. The highest speeds will be likely at ORF and along the coast. LLWS is expected as well into early tonight at SBY, ORF, and ECG. As the storm system moves away from the local area late into early Mon morning, rain may mix with or change to all snow across the Piedmont, with a rain/snow mix possible at RIC (10-12z but maybe as early as 9z). Rain/snow tapers off by 13z with clearing expected Mon and a return to VFR conditions. NW winds will gradually subside through the day.
Looking ahead: Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...
Forecast remains on track this afternoon with a strong cold front approaching from the west. Southerly flow is streaming in across the area, though remaining within low-end SCA thresholds so far. Winds are currently 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt, with seas around 3-5ft and waves of 1-2ft. Expect all of these values to increase as we go through the evening hours as the cold front gets closer, with seas becoming 7-9ft north and 6-8ft south, and waves of 4-5ft in the Mouth of the Bay and 3-4ft in the lower and middle Bay.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening and early overnight hours ahead and along the front. Strong, erratic gusts will be possible in the stronger cells.
The front looks to push through the local waters after 10pm. This will result in an abrupt wind shift out of the northwest. All waters will see wind speeds increase along and behind the frontal passage, thus, Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters, Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound for late this evening into mid-day Monday. Expect northwesterly winds of 25-30kt with gusts upwards of 35-45kt possible during this period. Currently think those highest gusts will occur with the initial surge behind the frontal passage as the stronger flow aloft mixes down to the surface. Winds will subside slightly back into SCA thresholds (18-24kt with gusts to 25-30kt) after mid-day/early afternoon on Monday. SCAs will be needed during this time frame as it will take until later Monday evening or thereafter to decrease winds back to 10-15kt and below any criteria. Beyond this system, high pressure will linger over the region through late week with much improved boating conditions.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630- 631-654-656.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630-631-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632- 634>638-658.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-638-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCHO CHARLOTTESVILLEALBEMARLE,VA | 22 sm | 59 min | calm | 4 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 29.69 |
| KLKU LOUISA COUNTY/FREEMAN FIELD,VA | 23 sm | 24 min | calm | 1 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 57°F | 57°F | 100% | 29.69 |
| KGVE GORDONSVILLE MUNI,VA | 24 sm | 24 min | calm | 3/4 sm | Overcast | 55°F | 55°F | 100% | 29.68 |
Wind History from CHO
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Richmond (river locks)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:11 AM EST 2.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:46 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:45 AM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:19 PM EST 3.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:51 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 09:55 PM EST 0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:11 AM EST 2.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:46 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:45 AM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:19 PM EST 3.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:51 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 09:55 PM EST 0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.9 |
| 1 am |
| 2.5 |
| 2 am |
| 2.7 |
| 3 am |
| 2.6 |
| 4 am |
| 2.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Lower Rocketts
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:08 AM EST 2.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:46 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:39 AM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:16 PM EST 3.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:51 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 09:49 PM EST 0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:08 AM EST 2.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:46 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 08:39 AM EST 0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:16 PM EST 3.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:51 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 09:49 PM EST 0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.9 |
| 1 am |
| 2.5 |
| 2 am |
| 2.7 |
| 3 am |
| 2.6 |
| 4 am |
| 2.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0 |
| 10 am |
| 0.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 3 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Wakefield, VA,
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