Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:35PM Sunday March 29, 2020 1:33 AM EDT (05:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:01AMMoonset 11:40PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1038 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of rain through the night.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 1038 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stalled frontal boundary will remain south and west of the waters through tonight. The boundary will lift northward as a warm front early Sunday, followed by a cold frontal passage from the west Sunday night. High pressure will briefly build in for Monday before low pressure passes to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. A small craft advisory may be required Tuesday night and Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, VA
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location: 37.83, -78.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 290043 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 843 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A frontal boundary will be nearly stationary across southeast Virginia this evening, before lifting north as a warm front overnight into Sunday. A cold front will cross the area from the west northwest late Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure will build into the area for Monday and Monday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. As of 800 PM EDT Saturday .

Latest weather analysis indicates that the frontal boundary has sagged S into SE and central VA this evening, though the significantly cooler airmass is still confined to the eastern shore and far northern portions of the CWA. Low clouds/fog/drizzle to continue overnight on the eastern shore (especially from Wallops Island N into MD). Partly cloudy (mainly high clouds) elsewhere currently, but trends in the obs show that some of the low clouds and fog will be overspreading the northern Neck shortly and may be able to push into northern sections of metro RIC after midnight. Lows overnight/early Sun AM will range from the lower to mid 60s S of I-64 to as cool around 50F or the lower 50s across the MD eastern shore.

SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 350 PM EDT Saturday .

Warm front will lift north of the area early Sunday morning, with a deck of low stratus likely to linger over northern sections through mid to late morning before scouring out. Meanwhile, vertically stacked system in the upper midwest will lift across the upper midwest/western Great Lakes. The associated sfc cold front will cross the Ohio Valley into the interior northeast through early afternoon, approaching our region from the W-NW Sunday evening.

Decent SW sfc winds in advance of the front combined partly to mostly sunny conditions (fewer clouds SE sections) will allow for a warm afternoon. High temperatures 85-90F are likely west of the Ches Bay, while readings over the Lower MD and VA ern shore will average in the mid 70s to low 80s. Record temps not really threatened for most sites, with record maxes now well into the lower to middle 90s as we cross into late March/early April. However. have added a Climate section below for reference especially as some of the guidance at RIC and ORF is for highs at or above 90F.

Most of the day will remain dry Sunday, with some isolated to widely sctd showers and possibly a tstm expected along prefrontal trough after 20z/4pm Sunday. Broad scale forcing for ascent will be limited, and downslope flow will keep low-level moisture limited as well. However, strong sfc based instability and modest increase in bulk shear do at least argue for some conditional potential for isolated to widely scattered late aftn convection. After coordination with neighbors and SPC, will add a chance for thunder over MD counties tomorrow early evening, with a slight chc farther south into VA. Will keep thunder mention out over NC, with better dynamics removed well off to the north and timing occurring after sunset tomorrow night. SPC has added a marginal risk for all but our NC counties for tomorrow.

The front will push off the coast Sun night, with west winds behind the boundary ushering in drier air and a clearing sky. Lows Sun night ranging through the 50s to near 60.

Dry wx expected Mon and Mon night. Generally becoming mostly sunny on Mon with highs ranging from the upper 60s far north to the mid to upper 70s west of the Bay. Becoming clear Mon night with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 350 PM EDT Saturday .

Clouds gradually increase on Tuesday, with increasing rain chances for Tuesday night through midweek with the next system. A southern stream system will move across the southern/SERN us during the midweek period. Models have come into better agreement with resolving this system over the past few runs. Have therefore continued to focus on model ensembles/national blend for the medium range/long term forecast period for the sake of continuity. This will keep considerable clouds and at least chance POPs in the forecast from later Tuesday through Wed night.

Temperatures Tuesday will be tricky depending on the timing of increasing clouds with next system, but for now highs look to be in the 60s to near 70. Temperatures cool some behind the system with the north flow Wednesday night and Thursday. Drying out Thursday and Friday with seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 800 PM EDT Saturday .

IFR/LIFR conditions to affect KSBY and areas of the MD eastern shore this evening/overnight for both VSBYs and CIGs. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail with some potential for the low clouds and reduced VSBYs to make it down to KRIC between 06-12Z. For now will have MVFR CIGs and VSBYs in the TAF at KRIC but expect the more significant flight restrictions to remain over the far northern areas. Did not bring any of the lower clouds into far southern VA or NE NC. For winds, they will generally be light NE to E at KSBY through 12Z, with winds NE to E but shifting to the S overnight elsewhere. Expect lingering low clouds at KSBY through late Sun morning with improving conditions thereafter as the front lifts N by aftn. Aftn winds will be from the SW at 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt most areas. Isolate/widely scattered showers and tstms are possible late Sun aftn into early Sun evening.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions expected Sun night and Mon with a breezy W wind Mon aftn. Flight restrictions are likely late Tue into Wed as the next system affects the region. In addition, strong E/NE winds are expected near the coast.

MARINE. As of 615 PM EDT Saturday .

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect for the northern coastal waters from Chincoteague, VA to the MD/DE border. Latest near shore observations (WAL 1/2 SM @ 22z), cameras, and satellite imagery continue to indicate persistent marine fog. The fog potential will likely continue through at least midnight (likely longer for the far northern coastal waters) as moist air moves over the cooler ocean waters. Expect a very slow S to N improving trend in visibilities late tonight into Sunday morning as the warm front drifts to the north. The northern Ches Bay will also need to be watched for potential fog development later this evening.

Previous discussion: Mostly onshore flow in place across the region this afternoon as a weak boundary lifts northward. A belt of enhanced easterly flow exists across the northern offshore waters and central Ches bay. So far winds/seas have not resulted in SCA conditions for the northern offshore zone so will expire the ongoing SCA there at 4pm. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft while seas range from 2-3 ft S to 3-4 ft N.

Winds will become southerly later tonight across the southern half of the region as the weak front meanders over the area. Winds will become 5-10 knots and somewhat variable north of the boundary. The front will finally lift north of the waters by late Sunday morning. With cool near shore waters and warm/moist southerly flow could see some marine fog develop tonight. Southwesterly flow strengthens to 10-15 knots on Sunday ahead of the next cold front approaching the region from the west. Could see an isolated thunderstorm or two Sunday afternoon/evening as the front crosses the waters. Westerly flow will follow in the wake of the front for Monday. A front drops southward on Monday night into early Tuesday with a surge of northerly flow. Still appears that winds will stay in the 10-15 knot range so no headlines are planned for this period.

Attention then turns to a potential coastal storm affecting the region late Tuesday afternoon into Thursday. Model guidance has started to converge on a track across the Carolinas and eastward out to sea vs turning NE and hugging the coast. Will show a period of SCA-level NE flow Tuesday evening into Wednesday for all waters. Seas are forecast to build to 5-8 ft N and 6-9 ft S and remain elevated into Thursday.

CLIMATE. While record highs are unlikely to fall on Sunday, they are included below for reference as the current forecast is within a few degrees of these values at KORF/KECG.

* Record Highs Sun 3/29:

* RIC: 94 (1907) * ORF: 92 (1907) * SBY: 93 (1907) * ECG: 90 (1985)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . LKB/MAM SHORT TERM . MAM/TMG LONG TERM . MAM/JAO AVIATION . LKB/MAM MARINE . AJB/RHR CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 90 mi64 min ENE 1.9 57°F 1014 hPa56°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 98 mi46 min E 5.1 G 5.1

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA22 mi41 minNE 57.00 miOvercast59°F55°F87%1013.6 hPa
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA22 mi39 minNE 310.00 miOvercast55°F54°F95%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCHO

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3NE4NE3CalmSE3CalmCalmNE5E5NE7NE7NE9NE7NE8NE8NE7NE6NE5
1 day agoS3S3S5S7CalmCalmN4CalmNE5NE5E4NE6NE10CalmNE5NE7NE4NE7N5NE6NE11W3NE5E4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S6SW74S9S9SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:02 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:18 AM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:58 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:01 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.610.60.50.61.22.23.23.63.63.22.621.40.90.60.50.71.32.32.93.132.6

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia
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Lower Rocketts
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:56 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:15 AM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:52 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:58 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.610.60.50.71.32.33.23.63.63.22.61.91.30.90.60.50.71.42.333.132.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.