Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:38PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 7:04 AM EDT (11:04 UTC) Moonrise 6:56PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 437 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Rest of the overnight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 437 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore today. Low pressure will track through the southeastern conus tonight and it will intensify as it moves off the mid-atlantic coast Wednesday. A cold front will pass through the waters late Wednesday and high pressure will build overhead for Thursday and Friday. High pressure will move offshore during the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Wednesday night through Friday, with gales possible Wednesday night into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, VA
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location: 37.83, -78.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 151041
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
641 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis
High pressure centered to our north will keep the region dry on
Tuesday. A strong cold front crosses the area on Wednesday
bringing periods of rain and gusty winds behind the front. High
pressure builds in for the end of the week with cooler and drier
conditions expected.

Near term through tonight
As of 600 am edt Tuesday...

the fog that has persisted much of the night near the coast has
diminished in coverage. Latest surface obs and satellite imagery
shows some pockets continuing in NE nc and along the coast of
md va. Issued another sps for patchy dense fog until 8 am.

Further inland, good radiational cooling has allowed temps to
dip a little bit more than expected. Many locations south and
west of the richmond metro have dropped into the lower 40's,
with even a couple readings in the upper 30's in louisa county.

Temps will rebound quickly after sunrise, with high temps
reaching the low to mid 70's this afternoon.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday
As of 330 am edt Tuesday...

a strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday bringing
some much needed rain to the area. A shortwave digging through
the northern stream will amplify as it crosses the ohio valley.

Meanwhile, a healthy southern stream will help to tap into some
gulf moisture ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show pwat
values increasing to about 1.5 inches on Wednesday. Expect
showers to overspread the region from southwest to northeast
beginning before 12z Wednesday and lasting through late
Wednesday evening. Instability isn't impressive but can't rule
out a couple rumbles of thunder. Overall thinking on QPF is in
line with wpc, with rainfall values generally ranging from
0.5-1.0 inches with isolated higher amounts. Went on the cooler
side of guidance for high temps on Wednesday, as it's expected
overcast and rainy conditions will likely hold temps in the mid
to upper 60s.

By 06z Thursday the rain should be over across the region, and a
gusty wnw wind will bring in drier and much cooler conditions.

Low temps Thursday morning will easily be in the 40s for most of
the region except right near the coast. Areas west of i-95 may
get close to 40 degrees. Thursday afternoon high temps will only
reach the low to mid 60s. Winds will gust 25-30mph across most
of the area, but the md eastern shore may see wind gusts up to
35-40mph Thursday morning and afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 130 pm edt Monday...

sfc hi pres moves across the fa fri-sat resulting in dry near
seasonable wx. Return flow behind the high as it moves off the
coast Sun through Mon will likely bring an increase in moisture
(and pops) from the SW ahead of lo pres tracking through the
midwest - initially inland during sun... Then all areas by sun
night mon.

Lows Thu night 40-45f inland to around 50f at the immediate
coast. Highs Fri in the l-m60s. Lows Fri night in the l-m40s
inland to the l50s at the (immediate coast). Highs Sat in the
u60s-l70s. Lows Sat night in the u40s inland to the l-m50s at
the coast. Highs Sun in the l70s at the coast and m70s elsewhere.

Highs Mon from the l70s N to the u70s far se.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 640 am edt Tuesday...

patchy fog may still briefly impact visbys at kecg and kphf for a
couple more hours but once the remainder of the fog burns off all
taf locations will beVFR throughout the day. Winds will be NE this
morning becoming SE by late in the day. Wind speeds will remain
below 10 kts.

Looking ahead... A cold front will cross the area on Wednesday.

Periods of showers are expected with a slight chance of
thunderstorms, especially closer to the coast. Flight
restrictions are possible in areas of heavy rain. After the
frontal passage, gusty wnw winds are expected late Wednesday
night and through the day on Thursday.

Marine
As of 400 am edt Tuesday...

a weak cold front is currently crossing the lower bay shifting
winds to the NW and eventually the NE later this morning.

Pressure gradient and CAA is too weak for issuance of any sca
headlines but will see a few hrs worth of sustained winds
approaching 15 kt and a few gusts potentially to near 20 kt.

Winds will become E at 5-10 kt during the aftn. Sub- sca
conditions then prevail tonight, before another area of low
pressure is progged to impact the area on wed, followed by a
much stronger cold front Wed night. Some potential for sca
conditions for building seas on the coastal waters and 15-20kt
winds into the lower bay in sse flow late Wed am into Wed aftn
before the winds shift to the W late Wed aftn. With this being
3rd period and somewhat marginal uncertain did not raise any
scas yet.

Have issued a gale watch for the coastal zones N of cape
charles light for Wed night Thu for what will be a 12hr or
greater period with gusts of 35-40 kt expected. Strong CAA and
an intensifying sfc low pushes off the mid-atlantic coast wed
night and into new england on thu. Strong scas (due to winds)
look likely Wed night-thu for the remainder of the region and
even in these zones not in the gale watch, there probably will
be a few hrs worth of occasional gusts to ~35 kt late wed
evening or early Thu am as the initial surge of sharply colder
air moves through. Local wind probabilities are depicting >80%
chances for gale gusts at buoy 44009 Wed night early Thu tapered
to 20-40% (or less) over the southern coastal waters and bay.

Due to the offshore NW flow, seas will not build that much
despite the strong winds, generally to 4-6 ft while waves in the
bay build to ~4 ft with 2-3 ft waves in the rivers. The current
forecast has winds remaining AOA sca thresholds for bay and
coast through ~12z fri. Sub-sca conditions return by late fri,
as high pressure settles over the waters.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 500 am edt Tuesday...

flood statement for the nc zones along the albemarle sound has
been extended through noon. Water levels peaked yesterday but
have been slow to fall and with some residual flooding still
ongoing have extended the statement to cover the rest of this
morning.

Some increasing tidal anomalies are expected over the next day
into the bay out ahead of a strong cold front. Minor flooding
with the high tide Wed aftn will be possible into the upper bay
for places like lewisetta, bishops head (and potentially
crisfield and cambridge).

The rip current risk will be moderate over area beaches today
(this is the last srf issuance for the 2019 season).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon
for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis... Cmf
near term... Cmf
short term... Cmf
long term... Alb
aviation... Cmf
marine... Lkb tmg
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 90 mi94 min NNW 1.9 58°F 1021 hPa55°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 92 mi40 min 57°F 70°F1020.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 98 mi64 min NE 5.1 G 6

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA22 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair45°F37°F77%1020.4 hPa
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA22 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair39°F38°F98%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCHO

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3CalmCalmW6S10
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1 day agoNE4NE6E7NE533N3CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5CalmCalmNE5NE5N3CalmN3CalmCalmNE5NE6NE5NE7NE6NE54

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
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Tue -- 01:10 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:09 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:00 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:14 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.61.42.43.13.43.32.82.11.40.90.50.30.61.32.53.43.83.73.22.61.91.3

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia
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Lower Rocketts
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:04 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:06 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:11 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.71.52.53.23.43.32.82.11.40.80.50.30.61.42.63.43.83.63.22.51.91.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.