Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, VA

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Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:36PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 5:03 AM EDT (09:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:21PMMoonset 5:35AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 436 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm edt this afternoon through this evening...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Isolated showers.
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. The remnants of barry will pass north of the waters later today into Thursday. High pressure will build over the southeastern states for Friday into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, VA
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location: 37.83, -78.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 170550
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
150 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will remain off the southeast coast through
Wednesday. A weak trough of low pressure will cross the region
Thursday. Otherwise, hot and humid weather will continue until
Monday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 945 pm edt Tuesday...

showers tstms have diminished in coverage and intensity over
the past two hours, with only pops of only 20% overnight, mainly
from the WRN shore of the bay to the ERN shore. Very warm and
humid this evening with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s
and dewpoints in the low mid 70s. Partly to mostly cloudy this
evening with decreasing clouds expected overnight, and low
temperatures ranging through the 70s.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
As of 325 pm edt Tuesday...

while remnants of a tropical cyclone pass well N of the region
wed-wed night... Sfc hi pres becomes reestablished off the mid-
atlantic SE CONUS coast. SW flow pushes hot and humid air into
the region Wed W only minimal (diurnal) rain chances. Highs in
the m-u90s inland... L90s at the (immediate) coast.

Before (even) hotter wx arrives (for fri-mon)... A weak trough
aloft will be crossing the region Wed night-thu which potentially
causes another increase in convection. Otw... Partly cloudy w
lows Wed night in the l70s W to the m-u70s elsewhere. Highs thu
in the l-m90s.

Heat advisory has been raised for areas along E of I 95 for wed
for heat indices reaching around 105f. Dew point forecast is
tricky on Wed given potential for a bit of lowering (due to sw
winds) before around the time of peak heating but that may
result in a bit higher actual temperature. Heat advisory may be
necessary again thu... ESP over SE va-ne nc.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
As of 240 pm edt Tuesday...

not much to say (that hasn't already been conveyed) about the
upcoming heatwave Fri into early next week (mon). A typical mid
july summertime wx pattern persists through the extended
forecast period as (stagnant) hi pres sfc- aloft builds from the
se mid-atlantic states on W through the mid ms valley.

Confidence is very high right now that this will be the hottest
period of the summer so far and result in dangerous heat
indices. Mainly partly cloudy... Hot humid during the day... Very
warm humid at night through the period (w AOB climo diurnal
pops (blo 30%) - except a bit higher by mon). Highs Fri in the
90s... Then highs Sat and Sun mainly 95-101f - locally u80s-l90s
at the immediate coast each day. Heat effects will be cumulative
through the period as nighttime lows will avg 75-80f.

Heat advisories (heat indices 105-109f) and or excessive heat
warnings (heat indices 110f+) are likely Fri through next
weekend (dependent upon future dew point forecasts). Will
continue to highlight this potential in the hwo. Record highs
may be tough to reach but record high lows appear to be
attainable... See climate below.

A breakdown of the hot pattern is showing up on the extended
guidance Mon through Tue as the heat ridge weakens and a trough
aloft begins to amplify toward the ERN conus. Highs still in the
90s Mon W pops to 40-50% ahead of an approaching cold front.

Timing of that front completely through the fa remains uncertain
but it does appears that Tue will begin the cooldown in earnest
(w continued relatively high pops). Highs Tue in the u80s.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 150 am edt Wednesday...

despite some lingering isolated showers from ric to orf,VFR
conditions noted across area terminals early this morning.

Sct-bkn mid and high clouds with a ssw wind of 5-8kt to continue
early this morning through midday, increasing to 8-12kt out of
the SW by aftn, with some occasional gusts to ~15-18kt possible.

We do have the chc for some additional isolated to widely sct
aftn evening showers tstms this aftn, mainly over SE sections
from phf orf ecg.

Outlook: very similar setup on thu, with a chance for additional
sct showers and storms Thursday aftn evening, dropping back to
20% or less Friday through Sunday. Predominate conditions will
remainVFR at terminals, with brief flight restrictions (mainly
due to lowered vsby) with any showers tstms.

Marine
As of 945 pm edt Tuesday...

there have been some enhanced winds at times over the bay
resulting from outflow from earlier thunderstorms. As of late
this evening the northern bay was still experiencing winds gusts
to 25 kt, but most locations from the potomac river south were
15 kt or less. A general SW wind of 10 to 15 kt is expected
overnight and wind may be lighter at times. The SW winds persist
overnight as bermuda high reestablish control of the weather
along the eastern seaboard.

A trough of low pressure over the ohio valley will begin to
push eastward into the area Wed afternoon into Wed night. This
will tighten the gradient and kick winds up to 10 to 15 kt in
the bay and 15 to 20 in the coastal waters. Some of the wave
guidance suggest a short period of waves up near 5 ft in the
northern coastal waters. For now have held values at 3 to 4 ft
for last Wed into Wed night. Overall not raising any SCA flags
through Wednesday night.

The winds will begin to relax to around 10 kt on the bay and
rivers and 10 to 15 kt on the ocean waters on Thursday as the
trough of low pressure slides over the area. This pattern will
continue into Friday allowing for a continued weakening of the
winds to around 10 kt, but once the weak trough breaks down,
the bermuda high will once again begin to build into the region
and the southerly to southwesterly flow will again strengthen to
around 10 to 15 kt for the coming weekend.

Climate
Upcoming heatwave may challenge or break record highs and or
record high lows (esp from Fri through sun).

Richmond record high record high low
wed (7 17) 100 1980 76 2005
thu (7 18) 101 1977 77 2005
fri (7 19) 101 1942 77 2013
sat (7 20) 103 1930 78 2013
sun (7 21) 104 1930 77 1930
mon (7 22) 103 1952 79 2011
norfolk record high record high low
wed (7 17) 100 1887 80 1983
thu (7 18) 104 1942 79 1995
fri (7 19) 101 1942 84 1942
sat (7 20) 102 1942 79 1977
sun (7 21) 101 1926 80 1983
mon (7 22) 102 2011 82 2011
salisbury record high record high low
wed (7 17) 99 2012 80 1983
thu (7 18) 100 2012 78 2012
fri (7 19) 99 1977 78 2013
sat (7 20) 104 1930 83 2013
sun (7 21) 106 1930 77 2017
mon (7 22) 104 1930 80 2011
elizabeth city record high record high low
wed (7 17) 99 1942 78 1995
thu (7 18) 107 1942 79 2012
fri (7 19) 105 1942 80 2012
sat (7 20) 104 1942 78 2012
sun (7 21) 102 1987 79 1983
mon (7 22) 104 1952 79 2011

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for mdz021>024.

Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for ncz012>017-030>032.

Va... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for vaz064-075>090-092-093-095>100-511>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Ajz alb
short term... Alb mam
long term... Alb
aviation... Ajz mam
marine... Ess jao
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 92 mi28 min 79°F 87°F1017 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 98 mi46 min SSW 8.9 G 11

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA22 mi71 minSSW 38.00 miFair78°F73°F85%1015.6 hPa
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA22 mi69 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist74°F72°F94%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm35S4S6S5SW4N4SW4SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3SW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3--S64S8--S45SW64SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmS3SW3CalmCalmW7Calm6W7334SW5N4
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
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Wed -- 12:20 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:33 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:08 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:06 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.51.32.43.33.83.83.42.82.21.610.50.20.51.42.43.13.43.22.72.11.51

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia
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Lower Rocketts
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Wed -- 12:14 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:30 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:03 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.61.42.53.33.83.83.42.82.11.510.50.20.61.52.43.13.43.22.721.40.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.