Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Palmyra, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:55PM Sunday December 8, 2019 7:46 AM EST (12:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:58PMMoonset 3:28AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 637 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Today..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain or drizzle.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 637 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over pennsylvania and northern maryland will shift offshore of new jersey today. Low pressure will develop over the central united states and lift into the great lakes today into Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the carolinas is expected to lift northward across the mid- atlantic on Monday. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories become increasingly likely Monday night through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmyra, VA
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location: 37.83, -78.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 081116 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 616 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure moves off the New England coast today. A weak area of low pressure moves north across the Mid Atlantic region Monday. A stronger area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes late Monday and into eastern Canada Tuesday. The trailing strong cold front crosses the local area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 615 AM EST Sunday .

Latest MSAS has high pressure moving east of Long Island. After a cold/frosty start, high/mid level clouds will increase this aftrn ahead of a weak area of low pres dvlpng along the Carolina coast. Highs upr 40s NW to mid 50s SE.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 330 AM EST Sunday .

Models move the wave of low pres north across the NC coastal plain late tonite then nne across the Virginia coastal plain and Delmarva Mon. A decent slug of moisture will overspread the area with the best lift progged btwn 06Z-18Z Mon. Thus, highest PoPs will be within this time range.

For tonite, chc eve PoPs across the srn half of the fa as the initial moisture apprchs from the south, then high chc/likely PoPs after midnite (highest along and E of I95). Data also suggests an insitu-wedge across the nwrn most zones. Lows from the upr 30s NW to near 50 SE. Highest PoPs Mon morn, lowering in the aftrn as a punch of drier air pushes into the sern sections of the fa. Milder due to a south wind flow (and psbly some late day BINOVC across the se). Highs mid 50s NW (where it stays OVC due to the lingering low level wedge), to the upr 60s se.

SW flow in place Mon nite with not much support for widespread pcpn. However, enuf low level moisture to keep at least low chc PoPs in the grids attm (highest north). Mild with not much of a temp drop expected due to the srly wind flow. Lows mid 50s NW to arnd 60 SE.

Models continue to slow down the timing of the pcpn Tue ahead of the apprchg cold front Tue nite. Latest data suggests little support for pcpn thru 18Z with PoPs slowly overspreading the local area late. Thus, adjusted the grids with this trend in mind. What this does is allow for an unseasonably warm day (not quite to record levels, see CLI section below) with partial sun psbl across the east and a breezy sw wind. Highs upr 60s NW to mid 70s SE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 AM EST Sunday .

The cold front crosses the area Tuesday night with rain chances continuing into early Wednesday afternoon before drier air filters into the region. Lows will fall into the mid-upr 30s across the nrn zones to low-mid 40s SE. Models show thicknesses crashing behind the fropa, but with lows in the mid-upr 30s, a rain/wet snow mix is possible across the nrn zones erly Wed before the pcpn ends.

High pressure builds in with decreasing clouds by Wednesday afternoon/evening, high temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. Dry air and clearing skies Wednesday night will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 20s NW to right around 30 degrees SE.

Models begin to diverge significantly on Thursday with the GFS bringing a shortwave trough across the region Thursday afternoon. The ECMWF and CMC are generally farther south and much slower with the shortwave. Strong (1040+mb) surface high pressure will ridge southwest into the area on Thursday with northeasterly winds keeping high temps only in the upper 30s and low 40s. Will side with the slower EC/CMC solution and keep the forecast dry on Thursday. Cold again Thursday night, low to mid 20s along and west of I-95 with upper 20s and low 30s to the east. Upper air pattern differences continue among the global models for the late week period but there is general agreement with respect to another wet period for next weekend. Will show increasing PoPs late Friday into Saturday with temperatures moderating a bit due to increased moisture/cloud cover.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 615 AM EST Sunday .

VFR conditions continue thru this eve as high pressure moves off the New England coast. Conditions quickly deteriorate to MVFR after midnite (with lcl IFR late ivof RIC) as rain/fog overspread the area due to low pressure moving up the Mid Atlantic coastal plain. SSE winds less than 10 kts today, then lgt/vrbl tonite.

OUTLOOK . Periods of lower CIGS/VSBYS in both rain/shwrs are likely thru Tues nite, as low pressure tracks well to our NW. The trailing cold front will cross the area Tues nite. High pressure builds into the area for the mid week period.

MARINE. As of 330 AM EST Sunday .

High pressure over NE will slide off the northeast coast today. Expect easterly winds locally, 5-10 kts in the bay and 10-15 kts for the coastal waters. Waves in the bay 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft.

On Monday a warm front will lift north across the area and the flow becomes southerly. Winds increase to 10-15 kts in the bay and 15-20 kts for the coastal waters. Guidance has been consistent showing seas coming up quickly. Expect seas to build to 4-7 ft in the coastal waters, and 2-3 ft waves in the bay, with around 4 ft at the mouth of the bay. While winds will initially be borderline SCA especially in the bay, seas will likely meet criteria as early as Monday morning.

Southerly flow and SCA criteria winds/seas continue on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross the area waters late Tuesday night. Waves in the bay on Tuesday 2-4 ft with 4-5 ft at the mouth of the bay. Seas 5-8 ft northern coastal waters and 4-7 ft southern coastal waters. Winds will shift to the NW in the wake of the cold front passage with SCA conditions likely continuing into Wednesday.

CLIMATE. Record highs for 12/10:

RIC . 79 in 2007 ORF . 78 in 2007 SBY . 73 in 1966 ECG . 78 in 2007

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . MPR/RHR AVIATION . MPR MARINE . CMF CLIMATE . MPR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 92 mi29 min 32°F 1032.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 98 mi47 min E 4.1 G 5.1

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA22 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair25°F19°F78%1032.8 hPa
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA22 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair19°F17°F94%1034.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCHO

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3NE5NE7CalmNE6NE4E53E6E4NE4CalmCalmN4N3NE3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS4SW3S3S5SW5S6S8SW5CalmSW6SW663CalmCalmCalmCalmNE8NE8N5NE7E4NE4NE4
2 days agoNW11
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5W433--NW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmS4Calm3CalmCalmCalmSW4S4S5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:26 AM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:08 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:45 PM EST     3.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:01 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.82.82.41.81.10.50.200.20.91.82.633.12.92.31.71.10.60.30.10.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Rocketts, James River, Virginia
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Lower Rocketts
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:23 AM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:02 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:42 PM EST     3.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:55 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.82.82.41.710.50.200.20.91.92.633.12.82.31.610.60.20.10.41.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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