Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tangier, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:09PM Saturday January 18, 2020 5:49 PM EST (22:49 UTC) Moonrise 1:11AMMoonset 12:25PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 346 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Through 7 pm..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Rain likely.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Waves around 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..N winds 15 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 346 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure tracks through the eastern great lakes tonight and across new england on Sunday. A cold front crosses the area Sunday. Turning much colder early next week, as another canadian high pressure system slowly builds into the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tangier, VA
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location: 37.84, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 182036 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure centered to the north, will slide offshore this afternoon. A weak warm warm front will lift across the area today, with a cold front will push across the region late tonight into Sunday morning. Cold high pressure builds back in for Sunday afternoon through Wednesday, with markedly colder air spilling across the region through the middle of the week ahead.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. As of 215 PM EST Saturday .

Latest analysis reveals Strong 1030+mb sfc high pressure centered over eastern Quebec and ridging S/SE just offshore of the northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast. Weak low pressure was analyzed over the DelMarVa early this afternoon, with regional radar mosaic showing some light mixed precipitation moving across the northern third of the area this aftn. Meanwhile to the nw, low pressure over the Midwest continues to lift E-NE across the upper Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front sliding across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valley. Its associated weak warm front continues to lift across the mid-south into the Carolinas this aftn.

Have had quite a few reports of mixed precipitation late this morning and early thus aftn over northern third of the area in association with initial slug of overrunning precipitation, which makes sense given dry antecedent airmass in low levels and overrunning moisture in weak WAA. Weak forcing and meager PWs resulting in a brief lull in precipitation now for most of the local area, as we await uptick in forcing and best shot of overrunning moisture. Could have a few spits of drizzle over the next few hours, but largely just overcast. Bulk of rainfall still expected to push E-NE across the region from late afternoon through early evening, reaching Hampton Roads and NE NC this evening into the overnight, before pushing offshore by morning. Likely to categorical PoPs remain in place during this period QPF remains on the light side. on the order of a tenth to a quarter of an inch through the night.

South-southwest winds increase and become gusty as the warm front lifts across the region late this afternoon into the overnight . as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the cold front, which should cross the region in the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning. Lows will likely be achieved early in the evening, with steady to rising temperatures (except far NW, where piedmont should fall off late tonight post-frontal). Lows in the mid to upper 30s west of KRIC . mid to upper 40s elsewhere, with some low 50s possible far SE zones.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 215 PM EST Saturday .

Gusty west winds in the wake of the cold frontal passage on Sunday. Downslope flow will keep temps from falling too far behind the front with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Secondary front crosses the area Sunday night, ushering in strong CAA on NW winds for Sunday night. Early morning low temps ranging from the low 20s NW to low 30s SE.

Strong, cool high pressure of Canadian origin will bring noticeably colder temperatures on Monday. Highs in the mid 30s expected across the north, with highs struggling to breach the 40 degree mark across SE VA and NE NC. Strong NW winds will gust 15-20mph inland and 20-25mph near the coast/eastern shore, resulting in wind chills in the upper 20s and low 30s for much of the area. Winds decrease inland by evening but remain elevated over the water through the overnight. Very cold Monday night with temps ranging from the mid-upper teens across the Piedmont to mid 20s over the SE.

Continued cold and dry on Tuesday, with highs remaining below normal . mainly in the mid to upper 30s Tuesday despite mainly clear/sunny sky.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Saturday .

The extended period will feature mainly high pressure over the region. There will be a ridge aloft over much of the East Coast. At the surface, a Canadian high pressure will be centered over the Mid- Atlantic through the end of the week, with no chance of precip until Friday. Temperatures will being to moderate as high pressure remains over the region. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in upper 30s to low 40s, mid 40s to near 50 on Thursday, and mid to upper 50s by Friday. Wednesday morning temperatures will be some of the coldest we have seen so far this winter for parts of the are. Lows will be in the teens west of I-95, and low 20s along and east of I-95 and Delmarva. A northeast wind will likely keep areas along the southeast VA and northeast NC coast in the upper 20s-low 30s Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Thursday and Friday morning low temperatures will be in the upper 20s-low 30s area wide. Next chance of rain will move in late Friday/Saturday with warming temperatures. The next storm system looks to be all rain, with no signs of winter precip.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 220 PM EST Saturday .

MVFR/VFR conditions will deteriorate to solid MVFR conditions late this afternoon and this evening, with brief periods of IFR possible along coastal terminals this evening. Light/variable S-SE winds this aftn become S/SW late this afternoon, and will become gusty this evening as the gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front.

BKN/OVC high clouds over the region will gradually lower into MVFR range over terminals as rain spreads from west to east 21-02Z. CIGs lower to MVFR late afternoon/early evening at RIC and SBY, a few hours later at PHF, ORF, and ECG. Brief period of IFR CIGs possible at SBY and PHF after 01Z ahead of the frontal passage late this evening. Cold front crosses the area late tonight/Sun morning, with any lingering pcpn ending from NW to SE after 06-08z.

Outlook: VFR conditions return by or just after sunrise Sunday for all terminals, and should persist through Tue-Wed as cold high pressure builds back across the region.

MARINE. As of 330 PM EST Saturday .

Late afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure now offshore of the waters, with ~999mb low pressure centered over Michigan. Winds are generally out of the S-SSE at 10kt S/15-20kt N, with a few gusts of 25kt over the nrn Ches Bay/nrn coastal waters. Seas are mainly 3- 4ft, but are still ~4.5 ft at Buoy 44100 off the NE NC coast. The wind is generally ENE 5-10kt, with seas of 3-4ft for most of the coastal Atlantic, and 4-5ft off the Currituck Outer Banks. The aforementioned area of low pressure will track across the ern Great Lakes tonight and across New England Sunday. This will produce strong pressure falls (5-6mb/3hr) and southerly winds will increase to 15-25kt by early evening (highest over the nrn Ches Bay/coastal waters off MD). Winds then veer to the SW tonight, but remain 15- 25kt through early Sun AM before diminishing a few knots by sunrise. Seas are forecast to be 3-5ft S tonight, while building to 4-6ft N. Waves on the Ches Bay are expected to range from 2-4ft. The wind will then become WNW 15-20kt on Sunday. Went ahead and extended all SCA flags for the bay, srn coastal waters, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound through 12z/7 AM Monday (rather than having a break in the headlines until the expected increase in winds Sun evening- Sun night). Also extended the SCAs for the nrn three coastal zones through 12z/7 AM Monday. Conditions will be marginal for SCAs on Sun, but fairly confident that there will be at least a few hours worth of low-end SCA gusts during the day across the bay/srn coastal waters/Currituck Sound. Seas will be 3-4ft S/4-5ft N during the day on Sun. Could still see seas of 5ft S/6ft N closer to 20 nm offshore.

Still expecting the strongest winds to occur Sunday night, as a cold front crosses the coast with a fairly decent surge of low-level CAA (from the NW). Solid SCAs are likely Sunday night across the bay/ocean (22-27kt sustained winds w/ gusts of ~30kt). Could even see a brief period of 35kt gusts across the far nrn coastal waters (local wind gust probabilities are starting to latch onto this). SCAs have been issued for the Rappahannock/York Rivers from 21z Sunday-12z Monday for 15-20kt NW winds w/ gusts to 25kt. May need to add an SCA for the Upper James Sun evening-Sun night, but not confident enough to do it attm. Winds diminish to 15-20kt during the midday/aftn hours on Monday. A secondary surge of CAA arrives Monday night into early Tuesday morning with a 15-20kt N-NNW wind. High pressure builds into the region Tuesday into Wednesday while low pressure develops well off the GA/FL coast. Any significant marine impacts from this low will likely remain to the S of the local waters. The wind will gradually veer from NNW to NNE on Tue/Wed with speeds of ~15kt N to 15-20kt S. Seas are expected to average 4-5ft Monday-Tuesday, and could build to 6ft S as the wind becomes more northerly. Waves in the Ches Bay are forecast to reach 3-4ft Sunday night and Monday night during the periods of strongest CAA. Given the current forecast, will likely need to extend the SCAs for at least parts of the bay/ocean through early next week. Tranquil marine conditions are expected to return Thursday/Thursday night as high pressure finally settles near the area.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ635-636. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ638-650-652- 654.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . MAM SHORT TERM . MAM/RHR LONG TERM . CP AVIATION . RHR MARINE . AJZ/ERI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 15 mi32 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 38°F 44°F1020.3 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi50 min 1020.7 hPa (-3.2)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 19 mi38 min SSW 9.7 G 12 45°F1023.9 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 24 mi50 min 1021.1 hPa (-4.9)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 26 mi170 min SSW 9.9 G 13
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 28 mi56 min 41°F 37°F1021 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 33 mi50 min 45°F 43°F1020.4 hPa (-5.3)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi50 min 37°F 44°F1020.3 hPa (-3.5)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 39 mi80 min SSW 1 42°F 1022 hPa33°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 41 mi50 min 46°F 1021.3 hPa (-4.4)
44072 44 mi40 min W 14 G 16 46°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 45 mi50 min 45°F 49°F1020.6 hPa (-4.2)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 48 mi56 min 46°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD24 mi57 minSSW 74.00 miLight Rain41°F32°F70%1020.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3CalmNE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmS7S5S6SE10S7
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Wicomico River Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Great Wicomico River Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:15 AM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:25 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:47 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:34 PM EST     0.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.10.20.50.711.110.90.70.40.20-00.10.30.50.70.90.90.80.60.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:21 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:32 AM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:26 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:13 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:51 PM EST     1.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.10.10.40.711.21.21.10.80.60.30.1-000.20.50.8110.90.70.50.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.