Saturday, January23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tangier, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:16PM Saturday January 23, 2021 11:52 AM EST (16:52 UTC) Moonrise 1:01PMMoonset 2:46AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 946 Am Est Sat Jan 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..S winds 5 kt, becoming E in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the morning.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain and snow after midnight.
ANZ600 946 Am Est Sat Jan 23 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure slowly builds in from the northwest over the weekend. Low pressure tracks across the mid atlantic region late Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tangier, VA
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location: 37.84, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 231504 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1004 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Cold Canadian high pressure builds toward the area today before becoming centered over the area tonight. Low pressure tracks across the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1000 AM EST Saturday .

Morning wx analysis shows high pressure centered just south of Lake Michigan building ESE toward the area. The flow aloft is zonal over the ern half of the CONUS, with an upper trough and upper low over wrn portions of the CONUS. A cold front moved south of the area last evening. Skies are mainly clear, but there are some SCT/BKN mid level clouds in the Lower MD Ern Shore. Generally virga is showing up on the Dover radar for parts of the Lower MD Ern Shore, however, a few light flurries/snow showers have been observed near Vienna, MD in the heaviest band of reflectivity. Intensity has gone down and will continue to do so, therefore, have kept mention of flurries for areas generally west of Salisbury for the next hour before everything goes back to virga due to RH values around 45%. As of 1000 AM, temps range from the low 30s N to the upper 30s S. The high continues to build ESE today and will become centered over inland portions of the area by late tonight. It will be clear (with the exception of a few mid clouds over the Ern Shore) but much colder today. Highs will only be in the low- mid 40s in most areas, with upper 30s over the Ern Shore. Dew points likely fall into the single digits this aftn over a good portion of the area. In addition, it will be breezy again, with gusts to 25-35 mph near the coast/15-25 mph inland. With the high overhead (coupled w/ mostly clear skies) tonight, expect calm winds inland with diminishing NNW winds along the coast. Went a bit below NBM guidance for lows. Forecast lows are in the upper teens west of I-95, low 20s for most other areas, and mid-upper 20s along the immediate coast of SE VA/NE NC.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 325 AM EST Saturday .

The high moves offshore on Sunday, with weak southerly return flow setting up by the end of the day. The upper low currently over the wrn CONUS becomes an open wave as it tracks across the srn Rockies on Sunday. In response, sfc low pressure will begin to develop across OK/TX by late Sun. While mid/high clouds will increase across the area (especially north) by the aftn/evening, low levels will remain quite dry through much of Sunday night. While the NAM has been forecasting a bit of light snow across the Ern Shore Sunday evening, the global models keep it dry. Have disregarded the NAM for now given the very dry low levels, and the current thinking is that almost all pcpn will evaporate/sublimate before reaching the ground (until Mon AM). Highs still in the low-mid 40s on Sunday. Temperatures will quickly drop into the low-mid 30s Sunday evening, but should level off later in the night with increasing clouds (and lowering cloud bases).

Low pressure deepens a bit as it tracks NE from the Plains toward the mid MS River Valley Sunday night-Monday night. 00z/23 models are a bit slower with respect to arrival time of pcpn on Monday than they were 24 hours ago (and there are still some minor differences with respect to timing). Overrunning pcpn likely enters far SW zones a bit before sunrise as the associated warm front slowly moves northward across the Carolinas. Pcpn then overspreads the entire FA from SW to NE Monday morning through mid aftn with PoPs increasing to 80-90% throughout the entire area. Pcpn continues through much of Monday night before ending from W to E Tuesday morning. Still think that any appreciable winter wx threat will remain well to our north, but cannot rule out a brief period of light freezing rain across Louisa/Fluvanna Counties if pcpn moves in early enough on Monday. Very little to no road impacts are expected even if there is a brief period of light freezing rain Monday morning. Highs struggle to get out of the 30s across the NW on Monday, with low-mid 40s in most other areas, and upper 40s in far SE VA/NE NC. Temperatures will only fall a few degrees (if at all) Monday night, and are expected to remain above freezing in all areas. With the relatively long duration of moderate rain, total QPFs through 12z Tue will average 1.0-1.2" throughout the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 325 AM EST Saturday .

The primary sfc low weakens as it tracks to our north on Tuesday, as a secondary low forms off the coast by late in the day. The warm front will move north over parts of the area on Tuesday, but the associated cold front will quickly cross the area Tue night. High temperatures on Tuesday will depend on the exact position of sfc frontal boundaries. Will continue to go w/ a blend, which gives highs in the upper 40s N/50s central/low 60s south. High pressure tries to build in from the north Tuesday night, but likely remains centered north of the US-Canada border through the middle of the week. Low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday morning will be 25-30F for most of our area, and 30-35F for Hampton Roads. Dry weather expected for Wednesday with high temperatures in the 40s.

With the high remaining well to our north through Wed night (near the Hudson Bay), it appears that not as much cold air will make it down to our area in advance of our next storm system than it looked like 24 hours ago. Regardless, low pressure at the sfc and aloft will track from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic from Wed night-Thu before moving offshore Thu night. Some of the global models are forecasting the sfc low to rapidly deepen as it moves offshore Thu night. This will bring a good chc of pcpn to the area on Thursday. Still watching for the potential for snow across the area on Thursday, but there is still quite a bit of variability in ensemble (EPS/GEFS) solutions. 00z/23 EPS probabilities for 3"+ of snow remain aob 30% across the FA, with the highest probabilities north and west and lowest probs near the SE VA/NE NC coast.

After the storm moves off the East Coast, cold/dry conditions will return as the high slowly builds in from the NNW.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 635 AM EST Saturday .

VFR/mainly SKC through the 12z TAF period. N-NNW winds of 5-10 kts will increase to 10-15 kts by late morning (and continue through the afternoon). Gusts of 20-25 kts are expected near the coast (highest at SBY), with a few gusts to near 20 kt at RIC. High pressure settles over the area tonight, which will result in diminishing winds and continued SKC conditions (outside of a few high clouds).

Outlook: High pressure prevails through Sunday. Low pressure will bring rain to the region Monday into early Tuesday, with periods of sub-VFR conditions likely.

MARINE. As of 220 AM EST Saturday .

Low level CAA ramping up across the local waters through early/mid morning resulting in increasing NNW winds. Winds to avg 15-25 kt w/ gusts to 30 kt . 20-30 kt w/ gusts to 35 kt over the MD ocean waters GLW will be up through 22Z/23. SCAs for all other areas up . into this afternoon over most of the VA rivers . and into this evening/tonight elsw. Waves avg 1-3 ft on the rivers/sound . 2-4 ft on the bay . and seas 3-6 ft. CAA begins to wane this evening/tonight w/ gradual lower of speeds (into Sun morning).

Hi pres drifts over the local waters Sun resulting in NW winds becoming VRB or WSW in the afternoon . avgg aob 15 kt most of the day. Lo pres is expected to track across the mid-Atlantic region late Mon into Tue w/ a low prob for (SCA) headlines attm.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658. Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/RMM NEAR TERM . ERI/RMM SHORT TERM . ERI/RMM LONG TERM . CP/ERI AVIATION . CMF/ERI MARINE . ALB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44042 - Potomac, MD 15 mi28 min NNW 18 G 21 33°F 42°F1023.7 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 17 mi52 min N 17 G 27 34°F 40°F1023.6 hPa (+2.7)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 24 mi52 min NW 28 G 34 1022.8 hPa (+2.9)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 26 mi52 min NNW 23 G 27
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 28 mi52 min NNW 16 G 26 34°F 39°F1023.2 hPa (+3.1)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 33 mi52 min NNW 9.9 G 20 37°F 41°F1021.7 hPa (+2.3)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi52 min NNW 17 G 24 32°F 42°F1023.4 hPa (+3.1)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 39 mi82 min NNW 4.1 37°F 1024 hPa20°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi106 min NW 25 G 35 31°F 1023.7 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 41 mi52 min N 23 G 28 37°F
44072 44 mi32 min NE 18 G 23 37°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 45 mi52 min NNW 20 G 24 37°F 43°F1022.6 hPa (+2.7)
44089 48 mi26 min 45°F4 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 48 mi52 min N 21 G 26 45°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD24 mi59 minNNW 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast36°F18°F48%1023.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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W9W7NE8NE3Calm3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NW6W4CalmCalmNW6NW9
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1 day agoSW9SW7SW5W4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W7W7W7W4CalmW6SW4CalmCalmCalmSW4SW9W8
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CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE5S6S7S8S6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Great Wicomico River Light, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Great Wicomico River Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:18 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:46 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM EST     0.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:25 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:59 PM EST     0.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.10.20.40.60.80.910.90.80.60.40.30.20.20.30.40.60.70.80.70.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:44 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:46 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:51 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:16 PM EST     0.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.10.20.40.60.911.11.10.90.70.50.30.20.20.30.40.60.80.90.90.80.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.