Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tangier, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy and very warm today with highs in the 80s.

Bermuda high pressure remains anchored offshore with surface low pressure over the Great Lakes. A cold front extends south and west from the low all the way into SE TX. A building ridge aloft will expand NE from the central Gulf into the Mid Atlantic today.

Mild start this morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
Some mid and high level clouds moving in from the NW are noted on GOES imagery. Very warm and remaining dry today with continued breezy SW winds resulting from low pressure to the NW and high pressure offshore. Afternoon temps rise well into the 80s inland with even some upper 80s to around 90 degree readings possible as heights aloft continue to build. Slightly cooler for the Eastern Shore but still in the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds increase tonight with lows in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Backdoor cold front drops south and west Sunday, leading to a range of temps across the area.

- The front lifts back to the north on Monday with low level moisture increasing ahead of an approaching cold front.

Tricky temperature forecast for Sunday with a front dropping into the area. Latest guidance shows the backdoor front making it through the entire area on Sunday but colder air/onshore flow will lag behind the surface boundary by a few hours. Temps will likely be able to rise into the low 80s across the SW half of the area before falling off in the afternoon. The NE half of the region will not see temps increase much from their mid morning values before falling off considerably through the afternoon. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy through the day with some thinning in the cloud cover expected by mid to late afternoon across the NE. Wide range of temps overnight as well with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s for the Eastern Shore with mid and upper 50s for the remainder of the region.

The front will lift north as a warm front on Monday with southerly flow and thinning clouds by the afternoon. Staying dry through the day with highs in the 80s inland and 60s to low 70s for the Eastern Shore. A very slight chance for a few showers across the far N and NW Monday night but not expecting more than a trace of precip at most. Mild once again with lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Weakening frontal boundary will meander over the region mid to late week with mainly diurnal chances for showers and a few storms.

- Above normal temperatures continue with highs in the 80s through the week.

Strong upper ridging near Florida will be shunted south and east mid to late week, allowing broad SW flow aloft and a return of scattered showers and storms. Temps rise into the 80s Tuesday with PoPs 30-50% (highest SW) during the afternoon, spreading SE into the evening and overnight hours. Slightly cooler Wednesday but temps still approach the 80 degree mark away from the coast. There is a chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers across the southern half of the area. Pattern remains stagnant with temps in the 80s Thursday and Friday with a slight chance for diurnal showers.
Lows through the period will be mild, generally in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 125 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. SW winds continue to be gusty early this morning despite the unfavorable diurnal timing. LLWS has been included at all sites through 09 or 10z this morning. SW winds ~15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt continue through the day today before decreasing a bit this evening. Guidance suggests there will be another stint of LLWS at SBY late in the forecast period. Not much moisture evident on forecast soundings but a few CU could form this afternoon near ECG.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions continue this weekend. The next shot at widespread precipitation looks to be early next week.

MARINE
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- SSW winds remain elevated today, the diminish tonight. SCAs are in effect for most of the marine area.

Latest analysis indicates 1025+mb high pressure well offshore of the lingering offshore of the Carolina coast early this morning, with ~1000mb sfc low pressure drifting east across the upper Great Lakes. This will continue to bring elevated SSW winds through late aftn/evening across the marine area and as such, SCAs are in effect for all zones except the coastal waters S of Cape Charles. Expect SSW winds 15-20 kt today with gusts generally to 25 kt, but up to 30 kt where gradient is tightest across the northern coastal waters. Waves in the bay will average 2-3 ft into this evening, with seas 2-4 ft expected south of Cape Charles Light and 4-6 ft to the north.

As the cold front slowly approaches from the NW tonight, the pressure gradient relaxes, and eventually does finally drop south through Sunday. Could see a bit of a surge as this occurs, but for now the surge looks to be sub- SCA, as the front gradually weakens as it drops across the area. Nonetheless, expect winds quickly veer from SSW to NE ~10-15 kt Sunday into Sunday aftn, then gradually shifting back to the SSE Monday with another warm front lifting through the region. A trailing cold front then approaches from the west, slowly crossing into the region late Tuesday, with SCA headlines potentially being needed over the Bay ahead of this boundary.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ654.