Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Heathsville, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:33PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 8:49 AM EDT (12:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:29PMMoonset 6:17AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 655 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight, then becoming se late. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming W 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft late.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Showers likely. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 655 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A weak cold front will push through the area this afternoon and will diminish tonight. A much stronger cold front crosses the region on Thursday. High pressure over the midwest on Friday builds to the southeast states Friday night, then slides off the coast Saturday. Low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Heathsville CDP, VA
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location: 37.84, -76.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 081154 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 754 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will push through the area this afternoon and will diminish tonight. A much stronger cold front crosses the region on Thursday. High pressure over the midwest on Friday builds to the southeast states Friday night, then slides off the coast Saturday. Low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday .

Latest analysis indicates MCS activity riding ESE around the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, severe wx parameters are weakening as the activity approaches northern portions of the CWA during the next few hrs towards daybreak. There is enough shear and elevated instability to keep a chance for tstms into areas from RIC on north and over to the eastern shore through mid morning, but do not anticipate any of this being severe. Otherwise, expect a lull in any showers by late morning/early aftn, before the next impulse brings another round of convection after ~18Z. SPC has the fcst area in a marginal risk for severe wx, limited somewhat by a downsloping flow that becomes nearly due westerly at peak heating. With strong daytime heating and good shear however, a few strong to severe storms (wind and large hail) are certainly possible if they can develop. Will have PoPs 30-40% for scattered tstms from 18-00Z, gradually shifting SE through late aftn and becoming confined mainly to far southern VA and NE NC after 22Z. Mostly cloudy through mid/late morning N, partly to mostly sunny to the S. Partly cloudy all areas in the aftn with highs ranging from the mid 70s/around 80F N to mid 80s S. The weak boundary washes out tonight and winds turn back to the SE or S, as strong low pressure (sfc- aloft) tracks across srn Canada. The associated (trailing) cold front is expected to reach near/just west of the Appalachians by 12z/Thu. Dry wx tonight (except for 20 PoP late W of I-95). Lows mainly in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday .

On Thu, most models have trended a little quicker w/ the arrival of precip Thu morning so bulk of the convection will likely occur during the morning in the Piedmont and by late morning through early aftn E of I-95. A Day 2 marginal risk is forecast by SPC, mainly due to the continued strong wind shear. Instability parameters are not overly impressive, but there will still be some threat for strong/isolated severe damaging winds given the shear. Becoming mostly sunny/breezy- windy (even after any convection has ended) behind the front with temperatures staying warm as cold air lags until Thu evening. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s N/NW to the lower 80s SE.

Strong WNW winds will usher much drier and cooler airmass into the region for Thu night and Fri. Winds will remain elevated overnight, so temperatures will not get quite as cool as they would if it were to decouple, but either way it will be much cooler with lows into the upper 30s NW with mostly 40-45F elsewhere (mid/upper 40s SE VA/NE NC coast). Mostly sunny and very dry Fri, with dew pts in the 20s/possibly upper teens along/W of I-95. Highs will range from the mid 50s eastern shore to the upper 50s/lower 60s elsewhere. If limited rain accumulates Wed-Thu, this could potentially be a Fire WX day given a strong/gusty WNW wind as intense sfc low pressure (<980 mb) deepens off the northern New England coast. Highs on Fri in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday .

Quiet start to the extended forecast period with high pressure building into the region. High pressure moves overhead on Saturday with highs below seasonal norms, generally in the upper 50s near the coast and on the eastern shore to the lower 60s inland.

High pressure migrates offshore on Sunday which will allow temps to moderate back into the mid/upper 60s and low 70s. A trough in the southern jet will spawn low pressure in the lee of the Rockies Saturday night, this low will strengthen and move NE into the Midwestern states Sunday evening. Chances for rain and potential for thunderstorms will increase across the west late Sunday morning, spreading east into Sunday night and Monday. Southerly flow across the local area will allow temps to climb into the low/mid 70s on Monday before the associated cold front crosses the region with cooler temps and high pressure in its wake.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 730 AM EDT Wednesday .

Mainly VFR conditions prevail but an area of showers across central VA and the MD eastern shore from a decaying MCS will persist through ~15Z early this morning. Tstm activity has diminished with this and flight restrictions are unlikely to even affect RIC/SBY (mainly just CIGs around 5,000 ft).

Mid level clouds scatter out late this morning, and winds will begin to increase from the WSW. Winds will become somewhat gusty this aftn to around 20 kt. Additional scattered tstms potentially develop around 18Z, lasting into the early evening. They are not expected to be as widespread as yesterday and for now have just VCSH mentioned in the TAFs (SBY has the lowest probability and did not mention any precip there). Mainly VFR tonight with any showers/tstms ending; some patchy fog will be possible overnight/early Thu AM especially at sites where rain is received today.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions expected Thu, but a period of flight restrictions will be possible with scattered showers/tstms that will develop earlier in the day than usual (as early as 12Z W of I-95 and by 14Z towards the coast). Most of the precip should end by 18Z but becoming very breezy Thu aftn with strong WNW winds (gusts to 30kt+). Diminishing winds inland Thu night, but all areas will be windy dry/VFR Fri (gusts 30kt+/highest SBY). Less wind/dry Fri night and Sat. Rain chances increase for Sunday with flight restrictions possible.

MARINE. As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday .

A warm front has pushed north of the local waters this morning with resultant winds from the SSW 5-15 kt. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-4 ft. The next cold front approaches the area from the NW by around midday with winds becoming W 10-15 kt. The front is expected to weaken as it drops south across the local waters this afternoon and evening. This will allow the winds to remain in the 10 to 15 kt range before gradually weakening Wednesday evening as high pressure briefly builds into the region for tonight.

On Thursday, winds will be on the increase by late morning as a strong, fast-moving cold front approaches the waters by midday and sweeps across the waters Thursday afternoon. SW-W winds in advance of the front could reach 20 kt, but once the front moves through, a quick switch to the NW is expected with winds increasing to 20-25 kt. At this point, am expecting SCA level winds for the Rivers, Ches Bay, Currituck Sound and coastal waters north of Parramore Island for Thursday afternoon and evening. A few gusts of 30-35 kt are certainly possible Thursday afternoon north off Parramore Island. There will then be a brief lull in winds late Thursday evening into early Friday morning before a stronger surge of winds comes during Friday (starting early in the morning). A Gale Watch may be needed for our northern 2 coastal zones (north of Parramore) on Friday (5th period), so will let next shift make a decision on any headlines that far out. For now, have SCAs ending at 10 pm Thursday for the Rivers and Currituck Sound. SCAs for the Bay and northern coastal zones go until 6 am Friday. At a minimum, SCA conditions will continue through Friday evening before subsiding. Have capped seas to around 5 FT north with the offshore flow and 3-4 ft south. Waves in the Bay will reach 3-4 ft on Friday.

High pressure slowly builds back into the region Friday night and hangs over the area through Sunday morning. This will allow the winds to relax and seas to calm over the weekend before another system impacts the region late Sunday into Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 535 AM EDT Wednesday .

Astronomical tides are currently running higher than normal given the full moon phase. This will result in water levels approaching minor flood thresholds at a number of tide gauges during high tide tonight. Coastal Flood Statements may be needed by later today.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ633.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . LKB/TMG LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . LKB MARINE . JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 12 mi49 min NW 13 G 17 61°F 58°F1004.5 hPa (+3.9)
44042 - Potomac, MD 13 mi31 min WNW 16 G 19 58°F 1004.1 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 19 mi37 min WNW 12 G 12 56°F1007.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi49 min WNW 15 G 18
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 27 mi49 min WNW 14 G 15 1005 hPa (+3.1)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 31 mi49 min NW 19 G 22 61°F 59°F1002.6 hPa (+2.4)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 34 mi49 min WNW 6 G 13 58°F 55°F1003.7 hPa (+3.5)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 35 mi79 min NW 2.9 63°F 1006 hPa53°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi49 min W 17 G 23 1003.2 hPa (+2.9)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 39 mi49 min WNW 1.9 G 7 62°F 58°F1003.4 hPa (+2.7)
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 41 mi49 min NW 13 G 15 64°F 1006 hPa (+4.0)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 43 mi49 min NW 12 G 13 62°F 58°F1005.3 hPa (+4.2)
44072 44 mi39 min N 7.8 G 9.7 61°F
NCDV2 49 mi55 min WSW 9.9 G 14 59°F 59°F1003 hPa

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi56 minW 8 G 1710.00 miOvercast62°F52°F70%1003.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS63SE7S7SW6SW6CalmE95
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--N76NE7NE104E5NE3NE3NE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW4SW5W4SW6SW8SE63SE8SE9SE8SE9SE9SE6SE5S4S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Glebe Point, Great Wicomico River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Glebe Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:59 AM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:36 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.61.51.20.80.40-0.2-0.2-00.40.91.31.51.51.30.90.50.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:21 AM EDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:48 PM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.20.80.40-0.2-0.2-0.10.30.711.31.31.20.90.50.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.61

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.