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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 1205 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Today..NW winds around 5 knots...becoming sw this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 knots.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 knots.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 knots.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 knots.
Wed night..NE winds around 5 knots.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 knots.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 knots.

PZZ500 1205 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
quiet pattern over the next several days with high pressure dominating. Gusty winds build over the southern waters early this week as an upper level low deepens into the great basin. Slight chance of showers over the waters late Monday into Tuesday morning. Winds diminish into the later half of the week as high pressure builds once again. NEw storm system approaches next weekend.

FXUS66 KMTR 111207 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 407 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1206 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

Look for quiet weather this week with mild days and cool night. A pattern change takes hold by early next week with a return to wet and unsettled conditions.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1206 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

An upper level ridge initially across the region will flatten in response to a shortwave trough progressing from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. This pattern change will bring a more onshore wind component for this afternoon and evening while increasing boundary layer moisture across coastal portions of the area. Expect a return of coastal stratus and patchy fog this evening into Tuesday morning along with warmer overnight coastal and bayside temperatures. Highs this afternoon with top out mostly in the 60s, with overnight lows mainly in the upper 30s and 40s. Some of the colder inland portions of the Central Coast may see readings briefly dip into the mid or lower 30s towards sunrise.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1206 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

The aforementioned shortwave will obtain sufficiently short wavelength to close off over the Desert Southwest by late week as transient ridging builds over California. Meanwhile a closed upper low will approach the region from the eastern Pacific by late week.

An active and unsettled pattern still appears to evolve by early next week. Model solutions have been rather provocative with a robust basin-spanning Pacific jet and decent subtropical moisture tap in play. Rain chances should enter the picture by Saturday and persist into next week, with an Atmospheric River type setup potentially in play. Exact details such as timing, rain amounts, and intensity will be fine tuned in the days ahead. This will be an evolving forecast so be sure to keep up with changes.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 340 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

Another morning with VMC and light winds across most terminals with the exception of mist/fog at STS. The visibility should improve at SNS by 17 UTC, in line with yesterday's timeline.
The fog is quite shallow and may transition to ground fog with better visibility a few hours prior to clearing. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the day before an approaching trough brings the return of low stratus late Monday.
The details on timing and extent are still subject to change, but the confidence is high that MVFR or lower stratus will return to the majority of the terminals at some point Monday night, and the TAFs have been updated to reflect this scenario.

Vicinity of SFO...No major concerns in the short term, with light winds and an occasional high cloud. Cirrus coverage will gradually increase through the day with onshore wind strengthening in the afternoon. The big question mark is when the stratus will return tonight. Guidance is pretty confident in MVFR/IFR ceilings intruding over SFO and OAK at some point, but the coverage looks spotty. Periods of IMC are possible early Tuesday morning, but the confidence isn't high enough to include ceilings below 1,000 ft in the TAFs at this time.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO although the stratus may impact the approach 2-4 hours before the terminal.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR at both MRY and SNS with calm winds. MVFR or IFR ceilings are expected to develop at both terminals overnight. There's a good chance MRY sees the earliest arrival of coastal stratus due to the prevailing onshore winds in the afternoon and proximity and exposure to the coast.

MARINE
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1206 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

Quiet pattern over the next several days with high pressure dominating. Gusty winds build over the southern waters early this week as an upper level low deepens into the Great Basin. Slight chance of showers over the waters late Monday into Tuesday morning. Winds diminish into the later half of the week as high pressure builds once again. New storm system approaches next weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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Berkeley, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Berkeley Yacht Harbor
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Mon -- 12:00 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:34 AM PST     -0.09 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:42 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:04 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:14 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:31 AM PST     0.26 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:46 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:46 PM PST     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:40 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:19 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:46 PM PST     0.35 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Berkeley Yacht Harbor, California Current, knots

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