Thursday, April22, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Toronto, KS

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:09PM Thursday April 22, 2021 10:22 PM CDT (03:22 UTC) Moonrise 2:04PMMoonset 3:23AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Toronto, KS
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 37.87, -96     debug


Area Discussion for - Wichita, KS
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KICT 222333 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 633 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Water vapor imagery shows an upper impulse tracking across western SD with a weaker piece of energy over western KS. Meanwhile, additional shortwave energy is moving into northern Baja. At the surface, high is situated over the Tennessee Valley with Lee troughing continuing to deepen.

Still looking for low clouds to continue to increase this evening and also lower. Confidence is high that drizzle will develop after midnight, especially across the western half of the forecast area as isentropic lift right off the surface ramps-up. Feel that drizzle will continue through at least Fri morning and possibly into the early afternoon hours. Will maintain some 850-700mb moisture transport this evening into Fri morning, especially over southeast KS, so can't rule out a rogue shower or storm, but feel that most of the precip tonight into Fri morning will be in the form or drizzle.

By Fri afternoon, upper wave will be moving into the Southern High Plains with 850-600mb moisture transport continuing to increase over eastern KS. So current thinking is that we may see some elevated daytime convection Fri afternoon from the Flint Hills into SE KS. There maybe a chance for some surface based storms over far southeast KS late Fri afternoon/early evening, but feel the more robust sfc activity will remain south of the forecast area. However, even with the elevated storms, feel that some strong to marginally severe hail will be possible given decent mid level lapse rates and elevated CAPE around 1500J/KG. Some of this activity will likely linger into Sat evening.

Shortwave will be moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley Sat morning with northwest flow aloft setting up over the Plains. This will finally start a warming trend with widespread 60s expected area wide with 70s on tap for Sun. Strong south winds will accompany the warmer temps on Sun with gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range possible.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Models continue to agree on an impressive upper trough digging over the West Coast Mon with return flow remaining over the Plains. The progression of this trough will likely be the focus of upcoming forecasts after Fri as it still looks to bring a fairly widespread severe wx episode across the Southern and parts of the Central Plains. The ECMWF is still a bit slower compared to the GFS and would result in the dryline further west compared to the GFS. In addition, the slower eastward progression of the ECMWF would also keep a more zonal component to the upper flow which would result in a more favorable setup for long lived supercells. Regardless of which model verifies, there is a high likelyhood for storms along a dryline with low confidence at this point on the mode of severe storms.

Storms should linger Tue night into Wed as the upper trough swings across the Plains. We look to get back into northwest flow aloft and a warming trend for the end of the work week.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

* IFR/MVFR conditions likely tonight-Friday * TSRA likely Friday (SE KS) * SHRA and DZ through FRI AM

SHRA and possibly a few TSRA will continue to push east through southern KS through this evening, then gradually taper off from west to east, leaving behind low CIGs (MVFR/IFR). The CIGs will continue to lower through the night, with areas of -DZ/BR expected after 06z/FRI and continuing into FRI AM. IFR CIGs are likely during this time, with LIFR conditions possible. During the day Friday, a frontal boundary will slowly progress southeast across central and eastern KS. Increasing lift, moisture, and instability should lead to an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA redeveloping along the boundary by the afternoon hours. The greatest risk for TSRA will be across SE KS Friday, but this risk may extend as far west as the I-35/I-135 corridor. For this TAF set, I included a TSRA mention at KCNU, but left it out elsewhere due to the lower confidence in occurrence. Where TSRA do develop, some hail is possible along with significant reductions to VIS. The risk of TSRA may extend a few hours beyond the current TAF cycle (ie. into Friday evening). Otherwise, gusty S/SE winds will decrease some this evening, but will remain modestly strong aloft. LLWS is possible through tonight, but it looks more marginal and I opted to leave it out of the TAFs for now.

Martin

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Wichita-KICT 45 61 44 68 / 30 40 30 0 Hutchinson 43 61 41 67 / 20 30 20 0 Newton 44 60 42 66 / 30 40 20 0 ElDorado 45 61 44 67 / 40 60 40 0 Winfield-KWLD 46 64 46 68 / 30 60 50 0 Russell 39 62 37 66 / 10 10 10 0 Great Bend 40 61 37 66 / 20 10 10 0 Salina 42 61 40 67 / 20 20 10 0 McPherson 43 60 41 65 / 20 20 20 0 Coffeyville 46 62 49 68 / 70 80 90 0 Chanute 46 60 47 67 / 60 90 80 0 Iola 46 60 47 66 / 50 80 70 0 Parsons-KPPF 46 61 48 67 / 60 90 80 0

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SHORT TERM . RBL LONG TERM . RBL AVIATION . RM


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chanute, Chanute Martin Johnson Airport, KS31 mi30 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast49°F41°F74%1017 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCNU

Wind History from CNU (wind in knots)
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last 24hrN4N4NE3NE3E4SE4SE5SE5SE5SE6SE8SE7SE8E7SE11S9SE9E8
G15
SE9SE8SE9S6E4SE4
1 day agoCalmS5S4SW6SW6SW5SW5W5W5NW6NW8NW13
G19
NW14NW14
G20
NW9
G23
NW7
G22
NW13
G20
NW14
G21
NW12
G19
NW10NW10N6N4N3
2 days agoN17
G24
NE15
G22
N10
G19
N12
G19
N11
G21
N10N14
G20
N13
G24
N13
G24
N13
G21
N10N8N14
G21
N11NW10
G17
N11
G19
N12N10
G19
N10
G18
NW12N8N4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.