Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smith Island, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 935 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Flood watch in effect for central and eastern VA tonight through Saturday night.

- A Flood Watch is now in effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night in SE VA to account for additional storms tomorrow.

Active weather this afternoon has continued through the evening, with numerous storms battering our northwestern counties with heavy rainfall. While a few of the storms today have been strong to even near severe, the main threat this evening has been hydro. Some areas in Louisa have received upwards of 2.5" and it is still raining.
These storms have developed along a stationary boundary that is draped across northern VA. The Wallops sounding sampled a PW of 1.82" and >1000 J/kg of ML CAPE with minimal inhibition which has been an ideal environment for convection to develop and maintain itself. This atmospheric moisture content is well above normal for this time of year and has aided in producing the widespread high rainfall rates within numerous showers and thunderstorms. Storms have been slow moving this evening, which has helped lead to isolated instances of flash-flooding across northern VA. We will continue to monitor the northwest counties over the next few hours for flash-flooding issues if these storms persist. A Flood Watch remains in effect for a good portion of central and eastern VA tonight. Temperatures outside of any rain-cooled areas remain in the mid to upper 70s and dew points are in the lower 70s, making for a muggier mid June evening.

Some CAMs suggest that convection will continue for the next few hours, with a reprieve tomorrow morning into the early afternoon.
This drier period will allow the atmosphere to recharge itself for another round of convection tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures during the day before storms start to develop will soar into the upper 80s, helping to refuel instability across the area. The aforementioned front is will start to drop south, which will be the main trigger for convection. High PW values will remain in place across the area, which will once again help with the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms likely starting early tomorrow afternoon.
Probabilistic guidance is suggesting there is a good chance for areas around the Richmond Metro through the Hampton Roads to receive 2"+ of rainfall through tomorrow night. An additional Flood Watch is in effect tomorrow for SE VA starting tomorrow afternoon due to this signal for robust rainfall totals through tomorrow night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled Sunday, especially S of I-64.

- Additional rounds of heavy rain could lead to additional Flash flooding.

The front is expected to linger in the southern portion of the area Sunday, keeping above normal PoPs throughout the area.
Current deterministic models show a moist airmass recovering across the area as PW values are ~2.00". Additional QPF values are 2-3" for much of the region through Sunday evening, though with the scattered tstms, locally higher amounts are likely. An additional Flood Watch may be needed Sunday for southern zones.
Highs Sunday will be much cooler N of the front, only low 70s eastern shore, with mid-upper 80s far south. A Marginal SVR risk is in place along and S of I-64, (mainly for wind) due to slightly stronger flow aloft, though a lot of uncertainty exists with respect to specifics on the location of the front. Still unsettled Monday, with high chc to likely Pops.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Shower/storm chances drop off to near climo, with temperatures trending back above normal by mid to late week.

The latest 12z/13 ensemble guidance from both the GFS and ECWMF are in decent agreement, depicting an upper level ridge along the SE US coast expanding back north into the local area, with some upper troughing lingering well off to our W and NW. This setup will lead to warming temperatures, with a rather hot stretch (and high humidity) likely Wed-Thu with highs peaking into the low- mid 90s Thursday. Thursday could see heat indices above 100F, possibly close to headlines in the SE (though this is several days out so confidence is not real high). PoPs drop off to only 20-40% chc Tue-Thu (highest inland). Friday will have somewhat higher PoPs as the next cold front moves in from the NW.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 741 PM EDT Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms have been intermittent at most terminals over the past few hours. Most sites are experiencing a reprieve from heavy rainfall right now, but -SHRA will likely impact ECG, ORF, and PHF over the next few hours. There is a chance that RIC could be impacted by the storms to the northwest in a few hours, so have maintained -SHRA for the time being. There remains some uncertainty in the exact evolution of the storms tonight, so amendments may be necessary through the night, pending how convection trends. CIGS regardless of convection coverage are expected to drop to MVFR to potentially IFR tonight at all terminals through tomorrow morning.
At SBY, MVFR CIGS will likely linger through tomorrow evening with little reprieve. Winds outside of storms will be from the south to southwest at 5 to 10 knots. Occasional gusts at ORF, PHF, and RIC are possible over the next few hours, but are expected to diminish tonight.

Convection is expected to wane early tomorrow morning before picking back up again tomorrow afternoon. Once again, there is uncertainty in the evolution of tomorrows storms, so have decided to include a PROB30 for -TSRA at all terminals to account for the the possibility of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected tomorrow.
The challenge will be exactly where storms develop and when, so details of become a little more clear and confidence increases, we will likely include TEMPOs to capture the convection.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous, mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms return again Sun, bringing localized flight restrictions in heavy rain and gusty winds. Rain chances remain elevated above climo Monday, before dropping off by Tuesday.

MARINE
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign across the marine area into next week outside of convection.

A cold front will be nearly stationary across the Delmarva tonight and Saturday, before slowly dropping south Sat night and Sunday. Seas are between 2 to 3 ft, with 1-2 ft waves in the Bay. Southerly winds will average 10-15 kt this evening, the exception being over the northern coastal waters near the front where wind directions may become onshore awhile, before shifting back to the S. Any showers and thunderstorms will be handled with SMWs. As the front drops south Sat night, E-NE winds develop, gradually shifting south with time by later Sunday.
Seas are expected to build to ~3 ft (possibly 3-4 ft over the waters N of Parramore Island). The front washes out next week, with a more S/SW flow again by Tuesday, with sub-SCA conditions continuing.

Rip currents are expected to remain low for Saturday, then moderate N and low S for Sunday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for VAZ048-060>062-064- 068-069-075>078-082>086-090-099-100-509>525.
Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for VAZ067-080-081-088-089-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...None.