Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shell Ridge, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:24PM Monday July 26, 2021 10:37 PM PDT (05:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:34PMMoonset 7:48AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 900 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 26 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Winds and wind waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
PZZ500 900 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 26 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Light to locally breezy northwest winds continue to drive the sea state at around 8 to 9 seconds along with a weak southerly swell. Wind gusts will increase Tuesday afternoon and into the evening through the golden gate gap into the san francisco bay. Locally generated steep wind waves may be hazardous for smaller vessels. Slight chance of showers and high based Thunderstorms remains over the waters through Tuesday morning. Any developing Thunderstorms may be accompanied by lightning and erratic winds. Chances for Thunderstorms diminish Tuesday afternoon.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shell Ridge, CA
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location: 37.9, -122.03     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 270453 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 953 PM PDT Mon Jul 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Monsoon moisture has moved into our region with light shower activity today. Slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues into Tuesday morning. Long range trends remain seasonably warm and dry through the end of the month.


DISCUSSION. as of 08:59 PM PDT Monday . Currently radar shows a band of light showers beginning to move into southern Monterey County. The latest CAM's show this line continuing more west, eventually moving off shore around 1-2 AM PDT. Newest models runs have slowed things down a couple hours. High clouds and light showers should move into Monterey Bay around sunrise. Showers should reach the Bay Area by 10-11 AM PDT and the North Bay by 1-2PM PDT. The 00Z KOAK RAOB shows decent moisture above 850mbs, with PW at 1.13 inches. All of this moisture is still missing the buoyancy needed for thunderstorm activity. MU CAPE from the sounding shows 96 J/Kg with 20 CIN to overcome. This buoyancy is around -8 to -17 degrees C, which means there could be some very light and small hail with showers that have a chance to grow. Best chances to see this will be in the higher terrain. The chances for lightning are low, as model soundings still stable air around 400-300mbs (giving an EL around 25,000ft). This is another hurdle for any vertical growth updrafts seem to manage. Rain totals should be lighter, as the air below 850mbs is still very dry.

PREV DISCUSSION. as of 02:55 PM PDT Monday . Many folks have enjoyed seeing some light rain fall across the region today. It's been a long time since we've seen actual rain drops instead of just drizzle drops from marine stratus. The monsoon moisture arrived earlier today and the first wave of light showers moved across Monterey County from south to north and has continued to track northward. Isolated to scattered light showers are now in the North Bay. We have not had any reports of lightning so far, but one of our forecasters did report some small hail that briefly hit his home southeast of Marina, CA this morning. Measurable rain has generally been just a few hundredths although a few sites reported as much as 0.08". Current radar shows that the bulk of shower and lightning activity remains to our south and southeast.

So, how will the rest of today into tomorrow play out? The hi-res NAM and HRRR models are indicating that we should see a second wave of shower activity move from south to north later tonight into Tuesday morning. The difference being that the NAM illustrates a more organized line of showers while the HRRR has a more broken, disorganized wave of shower activity. From the hi- res NAM: estimated timing of that second wave starts around 8 pm tonight for southern Monterey County. This line of showers will be oriented SW to NE and should reach South Bay & East Bay after midnight (approx 2 am) then track across SF soon after. It will then start to impact the North Bay counties around 3 am and gradually track north until it exits far northern Sonoma County by Tuesday afternoon.

We are still seeing the models indicate some instability with this second wave of showers, so have kept the mention of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. There is currently a large complex of thunderstorms straddling the southern NV and CA stateline that is producing a lot of lightning strikes . fortunately, it is also dropping good rain amounts ranging 0.25-0.75" with a few spots topping out over an inch. The models do not indicate that that complex will track directly into the Bay Area, but it does indicate that the instability is present. It will be interesting to see if the line of showers just west of that complex will carry some of that instability into our region and result in a few strikes. However, we're still viewing this event as low probability for thunderstorms. NAM is showing MUCAPE values up to 150 J/kg across our inland areas with this second wave while the showers over coastal waters might have more instability with MUCAPE peaking over 400 J/kg. Rain totals from the second wave are not expected to be super wet, likely staying under 0.10".

By Tuesday late afternoon/early evening, the excitement should be over and we will go back to a drier weather pattern. We've got a warm up in the forecast for the second half of the week with Thursday potentially being the warmest day. Coastal areas should peak in the mid 60s to mid 70s while inland spots range from the upper 70s to upper 90s. This is all thanks to a very large and broad high pressure ridge that will dominate much of the CONUS. By the weekend, that high pressure will weaken as an upper level low off the coast of Canada nudges inland and returns our region to a more marine influenced and seasonable climate.

AVIATION. as of 5:47 PM PDT Monday . For the 00z TAFs. Currently VFR across terminals. Satellite imagery reveals stratus over the coastal waters and SCT mid- and high-level clouds streaming over the area, in association with a monsoonal push of moisture from the south. Local radar is picking up on a disorganized line of convective showers in northern SLO county near the border with MRY county, but this area of activity should stay to the south of area terminals. No lightning is being detected with this activity. Hi- res models are in fairly good agreement that another push of moisture later this evening and overnight will allow additional showers to overspread the Central Coast and later the SF Bay area. These showers may bring brief periods of light to moderate rainfall, certainly enough to lead to wet runways. This moisture should exit the region by early morning around Monterey Bay and mid to late morning around SF Bay. VCSH have been included in area TAFs for this period. The marine layer will behave as it has for the last few days, with low- hanging clouds streaming back in to the coastal terminals starting this evening (MVFR/IFR) and lifting by mid/late-morning tomorrow.

Vicinity of KSFO . VFR with stratus offshore and SCT high clouds streaming overhead. Increasing mid/high level clouds into tonight due to monsoonal moisture, with a moderate sea breeze that will gradually weaken overnight. Moderate confidence in showers passing over or near the terminal 09z-16z. These may bring brief periods of lowered Vis, but should remain primarily VFR. Low confidence in low CIGs developing over the terminal in the early morning hours but SCT low clouds may drift into the vicinity along with likely BKN100 from monsoonal moisture. All cloud layers should lift and scatter through the morning and afternoon.

KSFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay . VFR with breaks in stratus along the coast and SCT high clouds passing overhead. Low CIGs will return this evening close to 03z, with initial MVFR/IFR lowering to IFR/LIFR overnight. Additionally, a surge of monsoonal moisture is expected to bring increased mid to high level clouds this evening and overnight. This will also bring chances for scattered showers to area terminals from around 07z-15z with lowered Vis due to mist. Low CIGs, along with higher clouds will clear out by late morning leading to VFR conditions.

MARINE. as of 08:59 PM PDT Monday . Winds remain out of the northwest and are light, yet continue to drive the sea state at around 7 to 9 seconds despite a weak southerly swell present. Wind gusts will increase Monday afternoon and into the evening through the Golden Gate gap and into the San Francisco Bay. Slight chance of showers and high based thunderstorms remains over the waters through Tuesday morning. Any developing thunderstorms may be accompanied with lightning and erratic winds. Chances for thunderstorms diminish Tuesday afternoon.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tngt. SCA . SF Bay until 9 PM



PUBLIC FORECAST: Dhuyvetter AVIATION: Lorber MARINE: DK

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
UPBC1 11 mi127 min WNW 14 G 19
PCOC1 - 9415144 - Port Chicago, CA 11 mi127 min W 20 G 22 62°F 69°F1012.2 hPa
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 11 mi127 min W 12 G 15 61°F 68°F1013 hPa
PSBC1 - 9415115 - Pittsburg (Suisun Bay), CA 12 mi127 min NW 15 G 20 65°F 1011.5 hPa
LNDC1 15 mi127 min W 4.1 G 7 61°F 1013.4 hPa
CQUC1 16 mi48 min 67°F
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 16 mi127 min SW 16 G 20 60°F 1012.7 hPa
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 17 mi127 min NW 5.1 G 6 59°F 1013.5 hPa
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 17 mi127 min W 6 G 11
AAMC1 - 9414750 - Alameda, CA 17 mi127 min WNW 6 G 8.9 60°F 68°F1013.8 hPa
OBXC1 18 mi127 min 60°F
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 18 mi127 min WSW 12 G 21 59°F 1013.7 hPa
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 20 mi127 min WSW 8.9 G 15 58°F 1012.3 hPa
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 20 mi127 min WSW 7 G 11 58°F 63°F1013.7 hPa
PXSC1 21 mi127 min 59°F 59°F
SFXC1 - San Francisco Bay Reserve, CA 21 mi52 min WNW 8 61°F 1014 hPa52°F
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 22 mi56 min SSW 7 56°F 1014 hPa
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 24 mi127 min WSW 12 G 19 57°F 62°F1013.6 hPa
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 29 mi127 min WNW 6 G 8 65°F 1013.5 hPa
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 33 mi67 min 58°F4 ft
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 44 mi27 min S 7.8 G 12 56°F1015 hPa

Wind History for Union Pacific Rail Road Bridge (UPRR), CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord, Buchanan Field, CA6 mi44 minNW 610.00 miFair62°F52°F70%1012 hPa
Hayward, Hayward Air Terminal, CA17 mi43 minN 610.00 miFair61°F54°F78%1014.8 hPa
Oakland, Metro Oakland International Airport, CA17 mi44 minNNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F54°F83%1014.1 hPa
Livermore, Livermore Municipal Airport, CA18 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair68°F49°F51%1013 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCCR

Wind History from CCR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW8W6W8W8W7W8W8W5W6NW6NW10W8W7NW6S8W10SW13SW15W11W14W11W8NW6
1 day agoCalmN5W5NW5NW6W6W6W5W6W8W75W9NW10NW12NW14W11
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2 days agoN6NW6NW5NW7W4N4N3NW3NW4NW9NW9NW9NW11NW11N9NW10NW12NW12NW11NW12NW14W10W8NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Mallard Island Ferry Wharf, Suisun Bay, California
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Mallard Island Ferry Wharf
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Tue -- 05:20 AM PDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:52 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:43 PM PDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:11 PM PDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:00 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.72.33.13.84.14.13.62.921.10.4-0.1-0.20.2122.93.53.83.63.12.51.9

Tide / Current Tables for Stake Point .9 Mi NNW, Suisun Bay, California Current
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Stake Point .9 Mi NNW
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:19 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:44 AM PDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:33 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:53 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:03 AM PDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:29 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:16 PM PDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:24 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:59 PM PDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:00 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.30.60.80.80.60.3-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.20.20.60.80.80.80.60.2-0.2-0.4-0.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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