Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shell Ridge, CA

SHORT TERM
Issued at 1113 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026 (Tonight through Sunday)

The warming and drying trend continues! High pressure remains over the region through the weekend resulting in maximum temperatures to reach 5-10 deg F above normal. Gentle to moderate offshore flow persists across the higher terrain and gradually diminishes by Sunday. This coincides with when a cold front is forecast to propagate across the Pacific Northwest with no direct impacts to our area. At most, the incoming system will support a prominent onshore flow, allowing for increased low cloud cover across the Bay Area and portions of the Central Coast. The North Bay, San Francisco, and the Peninsula have the greatest chance of experiencing a subtle relief from the warm conditions, though it will be short-lived. Interior locations elsewhere continue to bask in the sun this weekend.

Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory.

LONG TERM
Issued at 1113 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026 (Monday through next Friday)

In the wake of the frontal passage, high pressure builds again with max temperatures up to 15 deg F above average through mid-week.
Upstream, an open wave mid-level trough deepens as it approaches the West Coast as early as Thursday. Therefore, anticipate an increased chance for precipitation across the Bay Area and Central Coast as this system approaches our coastline. Ensemble model members and clusters tend to agree on a general troughing pattern late next week. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the exact trajectory of this system as well as its moisture content.
Tune in for more updates on next week's rain chances and impacts!

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 911 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

Currently VFR with stratus offshore. Moderate to high confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Warmer and drier conditions with offshore flow will limit fog/stratus potential overnight. Low to moderate confidence on sub-VFR conditions developing at HAF and STS overnight, likely IFR/LIFR between 10Z and 16Z.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southerly flow. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 911 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail, with the bays remaining more sheltered. Rough ten foot seas will create hazardous conditions for small craft across the inner and outer waters. Hazardous conditions will likely continue into next week as seas build to become very rough Sunday night into Monday before returning to rough seas by Tuesday.

BEACHES
Issued at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday as long period (14-18 second)
westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event.
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.