Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stockton, CA

DISCUSSION
Can you guess what today's forecast is? If you thought dry, warm, and breezy weather, you have won 5 cloud coins (Not Legal Tender).

Looking at forecasted upper level development, a shortwave trough breaks off the main pattern, hugging CA coast until becoming a closed low off the southern CA coast and high pressure will extend from the Eastern Pacific over Northern CA and into the Pacific NW.
This pattern over the next several days will keep us with near normal to above normal temperatures, breezy north to east winds, and dry conditions. This morning's winds have trended below advisory levels but will remain elevated with gusts of 15-35 MPH along and west of Interstate 5 through Monday night. Strong winds also increase over the Sierra this evening through Tuesday morning with periods of gusts up to 40-50 MPH over the crest and gusts of 25-40 MPH above 3500 feet. The strongest periods of winds will be Monday morning, then again in the evening for the mountains. NBM probabilities for over 40 MPH are sparse for much of the Valley with only a 40-65% chance over our Coastal Range mountains and nearby higher terrain along the western Central Valley. Chances for 40 MPH or greater for the Sierra lies around 60-85% so be sure if you are operating a high profile vehicle to exercise caution!

After Tuesday, pretty benign weather is in store outside of some periods of gusty winds over the mountains around 20-40 MPH, strongest Tuesday morning and again overnight into Wednesday morning. Valley highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s with low 40s to upper 50s across the mountains and foothills respectively.

Speaking of temperatures, with this pattern cold mornings will also accompany our dry weather with morning lows in the mid 30s south of I-80 Monday morning and over much of the Valley by Tuesday morning. There is around a 30-60% chance of temperatures colder than 34 degrees across the Central Sacramento to the Northern San Joaquin Valleys, including the Delta. Cold mornings will be in store for the work week this week so be sure to take the necessary precautions to protect pets, plants and people!

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)...

Thursday will see the closed low over the Southern CA coast weaken and merge back into the larger troughing pattern over the Central US with ridging stretching across the West Coast by Saturday morning. This looks to be the general pattern through much of the extended continuing our north to east wind pattern, clear and dry weather, and cool mornings each day. Models attempt to bring light showers south of Hwy. 50 over the Sierra Saturday morning but current forecasts do not forecast any accumulating precipitation at this time. Additionally, current NBM probabilities of wind gusts greater than 40 mph on Saturday and Sunday of this week trended lower with now a 20-40% chance over the far western portions of the Valley and 40-65% chance over the high terrain of the Sierra.

AVIATION

Mainly VFR conditions for the next 24 hours except for Northern San Joaquin and Southern Sacramento Vallies after 12Z Monday for isolated areas of BR in MVFR/IFR conditions. Surface winds are mainly below or at 12 knots. Northerly surface winds are expected 15-25 knots in the Delta, foothills and East Valley with gusts at 30-35 knots until 01Z Monday and after 08Z Monday. 20-30 knots winds with gusts around 40 knots are over the Sierra from a North to East direction after 02Z Monday.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.