Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lagunitas-Forest Knolls, CA

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Stratus cloud cover is limited early this morning so far compared to stratus cloud coverage this time yesterday morning. Satellite shows a few areas of cirrus and patchy coastal stratus developing.
Friday afternoon's drying on northwest winds decidedly mixed out the stratus, a signature of a robust mid-latitude dry air intrusion with surface dew point temps (water vapor) still limited at this hour and stratus trying to get a foothold. Aside from cirrus possibly slowing radiational cooling a little, much of the troposphere is dry with the precipitable water (0.44" i.e. near the 10th percentile for mid June) on Friday evening's Oakland upper air sounding. It's chilly again with 40s/50s this morning across low lying elevations while it's milder in the 60s at elevation in the hills/mtn tops in the lower level temperature inversion. Daytime highs today will be about the same as yesterday's with highs upper 50s/60s coastside to the 70s/80s/lower 90s inland, warmest to hottest farthest inland.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Sunday's weather will be about the same as today's, not much change in morning lows and daytime highs. On Monday a weak and dry 500 mb trough will pass eastward across our forecast area then become replaced by increasing 500 mb heights (ridging)
Tuesday. By later Wed-Thu the global models forecast strengthening of the surface high over the Eastern Pacific and lowering of surface pressures over the Central Valley. As mentioned yesterday morning, a steepening in the northerly ACV-SFO pressure gradient and winds is forecast. Surface theta-e on the latest ECMWF still shows a reinforcement of cooler and drier air arriving from the northwest Wednesday evening and night. This stronger northerly pattern may temporarily bump up daytime highs a few degrees above normal during mid week with cooling returning late in the week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 901 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions remain at most TAF sites this evening, with little to no stratus being observed across the Bay Area and Central Coast. There are some reduced visibilities that are being observed at KHAF, but outside of that, we are in wait and see mode. The challenge for the stratus has changed some. The latest guidance has delayed the onset of low clouds at most sites, and now there's even more uncertainty of just how far inland does it goes.
Favored the inherited TAFs, though adjusted timing for nearly all the sites that are expected to see it. Will need to keep an eye on KLVK as some guidance has entering the vicnity of the range ring.

Vicinity of SFO...he marine layer is roughly around 1500ft and should generally hold tonight. Guidance for SFO is a bit mixed, but opted to favor the HRRR, GLAMP, and NBM guidance for timing out the return of the stratus tonight which is now a few hours later than expected. Look for MVFR to IFR CIGS with conditions improving by late morning. There may be some pesky lingering low cloud again tomorrow, otherwise expect VFR conditions for the afternoon and early evening. The stratus signal for tomorrow night generally favors an after 06Z arrival, though opted to hint at that with it arriving around 05Z. In addition to the stratus, gusty west to west- northwest will prevail.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The region has mostly cleared out, with stratus lingering on the edge and just offshore of the Monterey Peninsula. Expect stratus to fill back in tonight, likely around or after 08Z-10Z and then mix out by mid to late morning.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 840 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts, and moderate to rough seas will prevail through Wednesday. Localized gale force gusts are expected near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur during the afternoon and evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 252 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions prevail through the weekend.
Night/morning marine layer will remain with cooler temperatures and excellent humidity recovery at lower elevations. Above the marine layer (higher hills/mts) and areas not directly impacted by the marine layer will see moderate to poor humidity recoveries.
The lack of humidity recovery will keep finer fuels, like grasses, drier and more susceptible to fire starts. Additionally, given the onshore flow, winds will be gusty each afternoon/evening for inland valleys (Salinas Valley), and gaps/passes.

The large view for the interior Central Coast shows ERC values barely exceeding average, burn index close to seasonal averages, and 100 hr fuel moisture slightly below seasonal averages.

Marine layer will hover 1700-2100 feet the next few days.

MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.