Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Captains Cove, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:16PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 9:24 AM EDT (13:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:15PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 622 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft late. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..N winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 622 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A strong cold front will cross the region later today. High pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front crosses the area late Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Captains Cove, VA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 37.98, -75.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kakq 221116
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
716 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region late this afternoon and this
evening. High pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday. Another
cold front crosses the area over the upcoming weekend, bringing
another chance of rain.

Near term through tonight
As of 345 am edt Tuesday...

latest wx analysis reveals closed occluding upper low over the
northern plains SRN ontario this morning. Sfc cold front is in
place from the eastern great lakes s-sw into the mid-south and
central gulf coast this morning. Out ahead of the front, a secondary
gulf disturbance continues to lift nne along prefrontal trough
this morning from the fl panhandle ERN ga toward the western
carolinas. The weak overrunning moisture accompanying this
feature is running a bit slower than previously modeled. Have
therefore continued trend of pushing pops back 3-6 hrs later
into the morning early afternoon.

Narrow line of showers still expected to move SW to NE across
the area later this morning this afternoon as the front crosses
the area. Likely to categorical pops still in place inland. Qpf
generally on the order of a quarter to a half-inch over the nw
tier of the area (fvx- ric- sby).

Southeastern tier of the local area still outlooked in slight
risk by spc, with a marginal risk area buffering it to the
north. Convective threat is conditional on exact timing of gulf
low and timing degree of clearing of early morning stratus later
today into the afternoon. Still seems as if the theta-e ridge
will only skirt the local area to the southeast, providing a
"glancing blow" of forcing for ascent for storms after 20z 4pm
per the time-lagged hrrr and cams to far southeastern sections.

Thus, while some elevated convection... And a few rumbles of
thunder... Are a reasonable expectation with showers anywhere se
of ric metro, concern for severe storms over our area is a
rather small area, mainly bordering the albemarle sound into far
se va. Will continue hwo mention in these areas and will go
with a chc t wording for now. Straight- line winds are the
primary hazard for these areas. Farther north, where severe
threat appears substantially lower... Will mention slight chc t
mainly E SE of ric metro i-95. Have held thunder out altogether
out in the piedmont, with in- situ wedge likely holding strong
through the day. Typical wedge orientation to highs today, with
overcast, showery conditions inland and highs in the low to mid
60s... Mid to upper 60s i-95 corridor and east... And low to mid
70s SE va NE nc.

Showers taper off as cold front slides offshore early this
evening. Becoming breezy post-frontal this evening, which will
keep temperatures from realizing true radiating potential. Will
carry light pops west of the bay thru 06z along the coast in
expectation of some more lingering light rain dz. Decreasing
cldns west- east aftr midnite. Lows in the 40s west of the bay,
50-55 near the water.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
As of 345 am edt Tuesday...

cooler and drier for Wed thu, as cool high pressure builds
in from the w-sw post-frontal and becomes centered over the
local area on thu. Highs in the mid 60s to around 70 on
Wednesday, and in the upper 60s to low 70s on Thursday. Chilly
early morning lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Wed night.

Split decision with models for Friday... Non-ncep models
(canadian (cmc-global) ECMWF each a bit slower with the next
front, and therefore keep the area dry Friday into the weekend.

Gfs has been much more aggressive with this feature. However,
given strong ridging building upstream in the pac NW (and a
subsequent downstream trough in the desert southwest), would
like to hedge toward the slower, more amplified solution rather
than the flatter, more progressive gfs. Accordingly, have played
the pops slower and kept Friday dry, with a low chance of rain
by Friday night and Saturday. Highs remaining mainly in the mid
to upper 60s... Around 70 se.

Long term Friday night through Monday
As of 345 am edt Tuesday...

the long term period will begin with a weak high pressure
system over the area Friday night. Keeping the area dry with
seasonable cool temperatures. At the same time, an upper level
trough will be digging south east of the rocky mountains. After
this point, the GFS and ECMWF differ greatly. The GFS continues
to move the upper trough east and push a cold front through the
mid-atlantic with wide spread rain for Saturday. While, the
ecmwf and canadian models cut off an upper low over west texas
and northern mexico with a shortwave moving across the great
lakes and northeast us. This will push a weak front through the
area with little to no precip Saturday. The GFS bring in a
strong sfc high pressure in for Sunday with much cooler
temperatures. While, the ECMWF and canadian shows a trough
diving south along the west coast which will kick the upper low
over texas northern mexico to the northeast.

Leaning heavily towards the ECMWF for the extended forecast.

With little to no rain through Sunday morning. Light rain
showers will may move back into the area for Sunday afternoon as
the upper low tracks west of the appalachian mountains and into
the eastern great lakes. While the low pressure system tracks
west of the mountains a wedge will likely develop over eastern
va, md, and the nc piedmont with a sfc high centered over new
england. This will keep clouds over the area with cooler
afternoon temperatures for the weekend, while overnight lows
will be warmer with the cloud cover and onshore flow.

With the ECMWF solution, high temperatures will be in the upper
60s for Friday and lows in the low to mid 40s (50 for coastal
hampton roads and NE nc). Behind the weak cold front that will
move through Saturday, highs will remain in the low 60s with low
temperatures in the 40s once again. Sunday highs may struggle to
reach the low 60s (mid 60s near the va and nc coasts) with a
wedge developing and overnight lows range from near 50 degrees
nw of richmond to near 60 near the coast.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 715 am edt Tuesday...

low cloud deck lingering in place, bringing ifr-lifr conditions
inland, with MVFR conditions along the coast. Conditions may
improve to low endVFR briefly by late morning but will likely
remain MVFR with even some breaks in the clouds for hampton
roads and NE nc. Cold front will approach the area by the
afternoon. CIGS will likely drop back below 1000 ft as the front
passes for kric and ksby. SE va and NE nc CIGS will drop as the
front passes as well, but should remain 1-2k ft. Rain showers
are also like during the afternoon with the front. Low
confidence on thunder forecast, and hv held thunder mention out
for now, with best chc at orf ecg after 20z 4p. Winds will be
light and variable tonight. On Tuesday, winds will begin SE 7-15
kt then turn SW 5-10 kt behind the frontal passage.

Outlook...

high pressure builds into the area for the midweek period.

Marine
As of 345 am edt Tuesday...

early this morning, an area of high pressure is situated over the
waters allowing for light and variable winds. This area of high
pressure will continue to drift further offshore, with winds backing
to the S and SE later this morning. A strong cold front approaches
from the west through the day, before crossing the waters tonight.

Out ahead of the front, winds will be on the increase with gusts of
20 to 25 knots likely by this late afternoon evening. As a result,
small craft advisories are now in effect for the chesapeake bay
beginning at 20z and lasting into Wednesday morning. In addition,
hi-res model guidance continues to indicate a line of showers
and potentially storms crossing the waters ahead of the front
during the evening hours. Behind the front, winds turn to the nw
at around 15 to 20 knots, with some gusts to 25 knots possible
over the chesapeake bay and coastal waters. High pressure builds
back over the region by Wednesday afternoon and winds diminish
over the waters.

Seas will likely remain in the 4 to 6 foot range into Wednesday. As
a result of the elevated seas (and potential for 25 knot wind
gusts), have extended the scas for all coastal zones into Wednesday
morning. Scas for the coastal waters may need to be extended into
Wednesday afternoon or evening as seas will likely be slow to
subside.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 400 am edt Tuesday...

coastal flood statements and advisories are now in effect for
areas adjacent to the upper bay for the upcoming high tide.

Anomalies have continued to rise early this morning across the
upper bay, coming in around a foot to a foot and a half. This
will allow for locations along the tidal potomac and upper bay
to approach minor flood thresholds later this morning. S to se
winds increasing ahead of a cold front will allow for anomalies
to remain high into the evening tidal cycle, thus additional
coastal flood headlines will likely be needed.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for mdz021.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am edt
Wednesday for anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Wednesday for anz650-652-
654-656-658.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Cp mam
aviation... Cp mam
marine... Ajb
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 16 mi55 min 65°F5 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 29 mi55 min SE 5.1 G 8 63°F 63°F1017 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 30 mi55 min W 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 62°F1016.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi55 min SSE 8.9 G 8.9 60°F 61°F1016.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 45 mi55 min ESE 6 G 7 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last
24hr
N14
G19
N12
G17
NE9
G13
NE8
NE10
G14
N8
N7
G11
NE5
G8
E4
G8
NE4
G8
E5
G8
E4
G7
E6
G9
E5
E4
E6
SE5
E5
E3
--
--
E3
E3
SE6
G9
1 day
ago
E9
G14
SE9
G13
SE13
G17
E12
G21
E14
G25
E17
G25
E18
G32
E15
G23
E14
G21
E16
G28
NE20
G32
NE12
G27
NE14
G22
NE21
G30
NE21
G34
NE17
G27
NE17
G27
N19
G27
N18
G23
N19
G25
N14
G18
N16
G21
N15
N14
G18
2 days
ago
N6
N5
E4
SE4
S5
S6
S7
G10
SW9
SW9
SW7
SW5
W2
SW3
--
W2
S5
G8
S10
G13
S5
G8
SE6
G9
SE5
G8
SE8
G11
SE9
G13
SE7
G12
E10
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA5 mi31 minSE 310.00 miOvercast60°F60°F100%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrNW9NW864E6NE11NE8NE8NE9NE9NE4NE4NE3NE4E4E5E5CalmCalmN3E4CalmE3SE3
1 day agoE14E17
G23
E17
G24
E18
G26
NE19
G26
NE16NE19
G28
NE21
G31
NE20
G30
NE23
G30
N20
G32
N15
G22
N18
G27
N15
G24
N14
G27
N17
G28
N11N12
G21
N13
G19
NW13N12N8N10N9
2 days agoCalmE6SE5S7S6S10--SW3W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmE5E5E5E5E8E12

Tide / Current Tables for Franklin City, Virginia
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Assacorkin Island, Maryland
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (9,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.