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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 330 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.gale watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon...
Through 7 pm..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly E swell. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly E swell. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 6 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 4 seconds. A chance of showers.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Showers.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

ANZ600 330 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
high pressure remains off the southeast coast into this weekend. A strong cold front will approach from the west on Saturday, and is expected to impact the waters Sunday through Monday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 082004 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 304 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will move east of the local area on Friday and Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region Sunday into early Monday morning. High pressure builds back into the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
As of 1210 PM EST Friday...

High pressure is centered from the Carolina to Mid-Atlantic coast this aftn, with light winds and temperatures in the 50s across the local area. Skies are partly cloudy due to high clouds. Dry/seasonable wx continues tonight. Some clearing is likely during the evening before high clouds move back in (especially S) during the latter part of the night. Forecast lows are generally in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 300 PM EST Friday...

Remaining dry and mild on Saturday as sfc high pressure expands to the N and becomes centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A positively tilted upper trough is progged to begin amplifying over the Mississippi River Valley on Saturday while a surface cold front slowly approaches from the west. Highs are forecast to be well into the 60s on Sat with a SSW wind around 10 mph. In addition, dew points will rise into the upper 40s-mid 50s by late in the day.
The rather sharp cold front will approach from the west on Sunday and move across the area Sunday evening-Sunday night. Meanwhile, the upper trough will continue to amplify on Sunday and eventually takes on a negative tilt as it approaches and crosses the area late Sunday night-early Monday morning. Anomalous amounts of deep-layered moisture will advect into the area ahead of the system on Sunday, with PWs expected to surge to 1.50-1.75". There will be a strong southerly flow ahead of the front on Sunday (especially during the aftn/evening). Winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. This will bring warm and moist air north into the area. Dew points are forecast to climb into the lower-mid 60s with highs rising into the upper 60s-lower 70s.

Showers are likely west of I-95 during the morning, with numerous showers/isolated tstms expected during the aftn-early evening.
SBCAPE is progged to increase to 100-300 J/kg by late in the day (highest across SE VA/NE NC). However, a strengthening LLJ may allow for strong to severe winds to mix down to the surface in the strongest cells as early as late aftn. However, the main severe threat will be between 6 PM-3 AM, as the sharp cold front crosses the area. The low-level wind fields will continue to strengthen during the evening-overnight in advance of the front, with 925mb winds potentially reaching 50-70 kt in areas E of I-95 by late evening. Not expecting temperatures/dew points to drop Sunday night ahead of the front with continued warm/moist advection and strong southerly flow. As a result, we will continue to have a few hundred J/kg of surface-based instability in place until front passes by. A line of showers and tstms will accompany the front, and these will likely cause localized 45-65 mph wind gusts which will have the potential to down trees/power lines. In addition, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Feel that the best chance of a brief tornado or two will be across interior portions of SE VA/NE NC. Will have to watch if a secondary triple point low can form along the front as it moves across the area Sunday night (a couple of the models suggest this). If this occurs, localized backing of the sfc wind field may enhance the tornado threat near/just to the east of the low track.

In addition to the severe threat, widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5- 2.5" are expected from Sun-Sun night. Lastly, expect a very quick 15- 20F temperature drop as winds abruptly turn to the NW following the FROPA. Also, winds may gust to 40-45 mph for a couple of hours in any given location (regardless of whether strong storms occur) after the front passes by. Stratiform rain will continue for a few hours early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around the system as it exits and continues to strengthen. The precipitation is forecast to end by 3-5 AM west/5-8 AM east. Cannot completely rule out a few wet snowflakes mixing in across our far NW zones right before the pcpn ends. Lows are forecast to fall into the mid 30s-around 40F.
Gusty NW winds to 25-40 mph (highest E) will persist through the night. Rapid clearing is expected on Monday with highs in the upper 40 to lower 50s. Breezy WNW winds are expected, with gusts averaging 25-35 mph.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 PM EST Friday...

Dry/seasonably cool wx is expected to continue through the end of next week as surface high pressure remains near or over the area.
Winds will be no higher than ~10 mph through the period with varying directions. Highs Tue-Fri will mainly be in the upper 40s-mid 50s with morning lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1210 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/08 TAF period. Skies will remain clear outside of high cloud cover (20-25kft AGL). Light SE winds are expected this afternoon. Winds become SSW at 5-10 kt on Saturday.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions prevail through Saturday. A strong cold front approaches from the west on Sunday, and crosses the terminals from Sunday evening-early Mon AM. Showers (and perhaps a few tstms) are likely during the day on Sunday, with widespread showers and a few tstms expected Sunday evening- Sunday night as the front comes through. Precipitation will linger for a few hours following the FROPA (likely into early Mon AM). Sub-VFR conditions are likely from late Sun-early Mon AM. In addition, gusty S winds to 25-35 kt are likely ahead of the front, with gusty NW winds behind it. There could be a brief (~2 hour) period of 40 kt gusts immediately following the FROPA.
In addition, convection along/just ahead of the front could bring very brief 40-50 kt wind gusts to the terminals. VFR/dry on Mon with rapidly clearing skies. Breezy conditions continue on Monday with W-NW winds.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EST Friday...

Gale Watches are in effect Sun night for all of the local waters.
High pressure remains off the SE coast into this weekend with winds remaining S 8-15 kt through Sat night. The initial low occludes in Canada Sat night with the strong cold front approaching from the W.
Secondary cyclogenesis is expected along the front late Sun into Sun evening in central VA. This low is expected to move NE and rapidly deepen Sun night as the trough aloft goes from neutral to negatively tilted. As rapid height falls occur with the deepening low, the wind field will tighten over the local waters. As such, expect strengthening S winds Sun into Sun night with winds increasing from 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt over the Ches Bay and 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt over the coastal waters Sun to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt over the Ches Bay and 25-30 kt with gusts 35-40 kt over the coastal waters Sun evening. The cold front moves through from W to E from 3-9z Mon with strong NW winds aloft mixing down to the surface behind the front. Gale conditions are likely (high confidence)
across the Ches Bay and coastal waters behind the cold front (especially for the first hour or two). Mariners should prepare for strong S winds rapidly shifting to even stronger NW winds with gusts to 40 kt possible (45 kt possible initially behind the cold front).
The greatest chance for 45 kt gusts is over the coastal waters.
Local wind probs have a 60% chance for 43 kt gusts and 20-30% chance for 48 kt gusts around 20 NM offshore of our N coastal water marine zones. Given bufkit soundings and the strong NW winds behind the front, gusts to 35 kt will also be possible over all the rivers and Currituck Sound (at least for a couple hours). As such, have included all rivers and the Currituck Sound in the Gale Watch (confidence is moderate). Additionally, the Gale Watch for the N coastal waters begins at 21z Sun due to the highest chance for S Gales ahead of the front over this area with the Gale Watch in effect for the S coastal waters at 00z Mon for lower probs of S Gales. Elsewhere, Gale Watches go into effect Sun night for the NW surge behind the cold front. Gale Watches taper off from W to E Mon as winds diminish. Will need SCAs ahead of the Gale Watches but it is past 3rd period so will hold off for this update. Widespread showers and isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected Sun into Sun night with the best chance for storms along the cold front Sun evening/Sun night. Waterspouts and gusts to 45-50 kt will be possible with thunderstorms along the cold front.

NW winds diminish to 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Mon afternoon, eventually diminishing to 10-15 kt Mon night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tues through the end of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.

Waves and seas were 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively. Waves and seas build to 2-4 ft and 4-7 ft Sun, eventually building to 4-6 ft and 7- 11 ft Sun night. Waves drop below SCA criteria Mon evening with seas remaining elevated through Mon night. Additionally, will likely need a High Surf Advisory for the MD Eastern Shore, potentially extending S to Accomack, VA Sun night due to nearshore breaking waves around 8 ft.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ630.
Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ANZ631-632-634-638.
Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ANZ633-635>637.
Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for ANZ650-652.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ654-656-658.

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