Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 10:42 PM   Moonset 7:07 AM

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FXUS63 KLMK 270137 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 937 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Forecast Update

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of the southwest at times.

* Rain chances return early next week, but above normal temperatures persist.

UPDATE
Issued at 937 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Looking for another quiet evening across the region with mild lows only dropping into the low and mid 60s for most under steady SE winds and broken mid to upper clouds. A few gusts up in the 20 to 25 mph range are possible at times overnight. Have backed off the pops in our NW a bit as time heights really don't show much saturation in the lower half of the column. Nevertheless, will still carry a small chance of a shower mainly across southern IN overnight, where PWATs are a little higher (moisture is a little deeper). Outside of that, no other changes planned to the forecast at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Currently... Along surface troughing, a thin line of showers is moving through the region. Outside of the showers, there are scattered to broken mid-level clouds streaming overhead and temperatures in the upper 60s and mid 70s.

Tonight... As the low pressure system over the central Plains strengthens and propagates northeastward, pressure gradients will tighten over the Ohio Valley. The tightening gradients will lead to breezy sustained winds of 10-14mph and gusting up to 25mph. The warm front associated with this system will sweep through the region in the overnight hours, shifting winds to a southerly direction and allowing weak moisture advection. A 45-50kt LLJ will meander into the region supporting some light, dissipating showers along and east of I-65 in the early morning hours. Low temperatures will be in the low-mid 60s.

Saturday... The low pressure system will quickly move over the Great Lakes region, pulling most of the precipitation to the north of the region. Light showers will still be possible until the afternoon over southern Indiana. Gradient winds will continue to strengthen bringing breezy winds around 12-15mph and gusting up to 30mph. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, with some brief breaks towards the late afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Dew points will be in the upper 50s and low 60s, rendering Saturday a muggy day.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Saturday night into Sunday continue to look dry as upper level ridging promotes subsidence aloft and surface fields lack any sort of lifting mechanism. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds will continue, particularly Sunday afternoon as the lower boundary layer mixes out. Gusts will likely be in the 20 to 30mph range during the day.

A slow moving frontal boundary will then begin to push toward the region on Monday before "fizzling" out with eastward extent. Showers and perhaps a few storms will be possible near the frontal boundary, and depending on how slow the frontal boundary progresses, precipitation could linger into Tuesday. There should be some brief drying behind the front before more active weather arrives by midweek ahead of another frontal boundary. We could see a couple rounds of showers/storms with this particular setup as the frontal boundary will likely be stalled from the Great Lakes region into the southern Plains before a shortwave ejects a low into the Plains and "kicks" everything eastward toward the end of the week. Model members and their respective ensembles have a bit of spread with the timing of features and/or rain and storm chances, so confidence in the forecast details as well as any severe weather potential for this timeframe remain low.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 736 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Things are dry and VFR across the area at this hour, and expect that to continue through the overnight. Look for mid to high clouds with some virga also possible at times. Steady to occasionally gusty SE winds will gradually veer to SSE later tonight. A strong low level jet around 45 knots at 2 K feet will overspread the region just before Midnight, and given around 30 degree of directional shear in addition to the speed shear we are just meeting LLWS criteria.

LLWS diminishes around sunrise with stronger S to SSW wind taking hold around 10 to 20 mph, occasionally gusting 20 to 30 mph.
Continued mid to high clouds are expected, with perhaps a few morning very light showers around HNB. Not expecting enough impact, if at all, to mention attm.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.

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