Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Jetmore, KS

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 8:28PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 7:23 PM CDT (00:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 10:35AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jetmore, KS
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location: 38.04, -100     debug

Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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Fxus63 kddc 202335
area forecast discussion
national weather service dodge city ks
635 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019

Updated aviation discussion...

Short term (this afternoon through Wednesday night)
issued at 1145 am cdt Tue aug 20 2019
quiet across SW kansas late this morning, with only some
scattered cirrus and mid cloud. With downsloping SW winds
increasing through the afternoon, and gusting to near 30 mph,
temperatures will soar this afternoon despite local cooling from
minimal cloud cover. Increased MAX temperature grids 1-2 degrees
across the board, with many locations reaching 100-103. Also
issued a heat advisory across the SE zones 1-7 pm, where lingering
humidity will push the heat index over 105 for several hours this

Convection evolution this afternoon is complex and a bit
perplexing. A strong 596 dm upper high is centered just east of
medicine lodge at midday. Apparently, a weak disturbance is
rotating around this anticyclone, northward through the texas
panhandle, that has already initiated weak convection near
amarillo. Hrrr and other cams, with support from 12z gfs, develop
scattered convection across SW ks starting around 3 pm. Increased
pops to scattered category for the central eastern zones after 3
pm. Storms will form in a very hot, well-mixed boundary layer with
downburst wind gusts to 60 mph being the primary threat.

Midlevel clouds and scattered showers embedded thunder will
persist much of the night, especially N NE zones, fed by the low
level jet. Much more organized MCS with attendant hail wind threat
is expected to remain well to the north of SW ks tonight, focusing
on nebraska.

Mcs-outflow reinforced cold front is expected to be along the
kansas nebraska border at sunrise Wednesday. The front is shown by
all models to make steady southward progress through kansas during
the daylight hours Wednesday. 12z nam GFS extended hrrr show
excellent agreement showing strong convective initiation along the
cold front across SW ks around 3-4 pm. With the added focus of
the boundary, CAPE shear will support strong to marginally severe
convection with locally very heavy rain. SPC 5% wind hail
probability for the entire CWA is justified, and increased severe
risks may be assigned once the cold front focusing mechanism is
nailed down more specifically. The heat will relax Wednesday, but
temperatures will still have time to reach the mid to upper 90s
ahead of the incoming front across the southern counties.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 200 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
heat relief is expected on Thursday behind the frontal boundary.

12z NAM shows the strongest cooler air wedge coming into SW ks,
perhaps enforced by a spurious closed low passing over kansas
aloft. 12z GFS is not far behind, forecasting surface temperatures
holding in the 70s most of the day for most zones, with some 80s
near the oklahoma colorado borders and even upper 60s NE zones.

Model guidance is trending strongly cooler for Thursday, but much
of this cooling is a function of holding cloud cover through the
daylight hours. If the clouds can hold through 5-6 pm, then the
coolest guidance will verify. Nbm appeared too warm in the mid to
upper 80s, and trimmed substantially, but stayed above the cool
guidance. Regardless, Thursday will be the most comfortable day we
have seen in some time.

Kept modest pops in the grids Thursday and Thursday night as the
front meanders and slowly washes out. However, models are trending
eastward with the most significant rainfall during this period,
focusing in central eastern kansas.

A warming trend will occur Friday through Sunday. The only
disparity in the models is exactly how quickly this will occur.

Model consensus and 12z mex guidance suggests afternoon
temperatures will return to near 100 on Sunday. 12z ECMWF supports
this thinking, with the highest thickness values on Sunday,
enhanced by prefrontal compressional heating ahead of the next
cold front scheduled for Monday. Rain chances will also dwindle
during the Friday through Sunday time range, with most locations
remaining dry.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 635 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
widely scattered to isolated thunderstorms will continue into the
early evening before diminishing due to the loss of daytime
heating. The storms will mainly be in the vicinity of dodge city
and hays. A cold front will move south through western and central
kansas during the day Wednesday. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop again along the front.VFR to MVFR cigs
may develop in the hays area toward the end of the period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Ddc 71 96 66 79 20 30 60 30
gck 67 95 64 79 30 20 60 30
eha 68 95 64 89 20 20 60 20
lbl 70 97 65 90 20 20 60 20
hys 69 89 65 79 30 50 60 40
p28 73 98 69 87 10 20 50 30

Ddc watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for ksz066-081-088>090.

Short term... Turner
long term... Turner
aviation... Gerard

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dodge City, Dodge City Regional Airport, KS18 mi91 minSSW 1610.00 miFair103°F53°F19%1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDDC

Wind History from DDC (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS15S11--------------S11S10S10S11S13SW19
1 day agoSE10SE6SE6SE10----SE10------SE5S5--SE5--S10
2 days agoSE8SE9SE11SE11NE12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Dodge City, KS (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dodge City, KS
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.