Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. George Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:33PM Thursday April 2, 2020 3:06 PM EDT (19:06 UTC) Moonrise 12:13PMMoonset 2:22AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 139 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
This afternoon..NW winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 139 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will loop over the northwestern atlantic ocean through Friday. High pressure will gradually build in from the midwest through the weekend. A cold front will follow Sunday night, then stall nearby before returning north as a warm front early next week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into Friday evening for portions of the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George Island CDP, MD
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location: 38.04, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 021901 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 301 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will loop offshore of the eastern US coast through Friday. High pressure will gradually build in from the Midwest over the weekend. A cold front will push through Sunday night, then stall nearby before returning north as a warm front next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A large and deep area of low pressure will continue to loop westward toward Cape Cod tonight, while high pressure extends from Ontario to the Tennessee Valley. The gradient between these systems is producing some wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range this afternoon. While the winds will subside a little with sunset, a low level jet will strengthen, which will likely keep winds elevated through the night except perhaps in the most sheltered locations. It's possible some of the ridgetops could be near wind advisory criteria (greater than 46 mph), but didn't feel confident on coverage for any sort of advisory at this time. Skies should remain mostly clear through the night, but the winds will help keep temperatures well above the dew points, so only expecting lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Wind chills will be near or below the freezing mark though.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As the low continues its loop southward on Friday, the pressure gradient will remain tight. Gusty winds of at least 20-30 mph are likely through the day. Moisture associated with the low will also begin advecting back toward the area, so expect clouds to increase from northeast to southwest through Friday night (although the far southwestern CWA may remain clear). A few light showers may also approach north central Maryland Friday and Friday night, though most guidance indicates they will be dissipating as they encounter a drier low level airmass. Temperatures should remain fairly steady state with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s.

The low will finally begin to move back out to sea later Friday night into Saturday as upper level blocking breaks down. This will finally allow high pressure to move in from the west and winds to relax. However, some clouds could hang around until Saturday afternoon as linger moisture remains under a subsidence inversion. Clouds will then increase again Saturday night as a weak frontal system approaches from the west. As heights build aloft, temperatures will be a little warmer, with most places in the 60s for highs.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Sunday should be mostly dry, with a surface ridge axis overhead for much of the day. However, a weakening cold front will push through the region later Sunday into Sunday evening. This front is likely to be mostly dry, but can't rule out a shower as it pushes through, so will maintain the slight chance POPs for that for western zones, with little to no POPs east of the Blue Ridge. Highs Sunday will be in the upper 60s to near 70.

By Monday, High pressure will be split to the north and south, with the weak frontal boundary placed somewhere in, or south, of the forecast area. Could see some showers along that boundary Monday afternoon. Not expecting much of a thermal boundary there, but likely more a wind shift. Temperatures expected to be in the mid 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday are a bit tricky to make any exact time estimates on any rainfall that may occur. The region will be in northwesterly flow aloft, with several weak upper-level disturbances moving over/near the forecast area. So, generally throwing in chance POPs into the forecast for both days with highs in the mid 70s.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The main story through Friday will be gusty northwest winds. Some gusts in excess of 30 kt are occurring this afternoon. Winds will only relax slightly tonight, then gusts of 20-30 kt will be likely again Friday. Only a few cumulus clouds through tonight, but a stratocumulus deck may advect in from the northeast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. These clouds will likely be VFR, though there is a low chance of MVFR. High pressure will bring lighter winds by Friday night, as well as maintain VFR conditions into Saturday night.

A weakening cold front will push through Sunday afternoon, with a slight chance for showers west of the Blue Ridge, so MRB could perhaps see a shower with this, but the front should primarily be dry. Then on Monday afternoon/evening, more showers possible across central VA as this weak front gets hung up. However, rain chances remain low, and any CIG/VISBY restrictions would be minimal. So, generally VFR conditions expected Sunday and Monday.

MARINE. Northwesterly winds will remain gusty through Friday. Gusts of 25 to 30 knots are possible at times, particularly during the afternoon hours for near shore waters and overnight for the wider waters. Have issued a Marine Weather Statement since a few gusts have been near gale force this afternoon. That may be the case late tonight as well over the open waters of the middle Bay, but for now have limited to 30 kt. An SCA is now in effect for all waters through 6 PM Friday (though some interior waterways could have lulls tonight). The SCA may need to be extended into Friday night for portions of the waters. After that time, high pressure will bring lighter winds for the weekend.

No marine hazards are expected on Sunday or Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Water levels continue to decrease under northwest winds and will be near or below astronomical normals by tonight-Friday. Tides may increase rather sharply by Saturday as onshore flow returns. The amount of increase will depend on if there is any excess anomaly left at the mouth of the Bay. Have sided with the less aggressive ESTOFS at this time, though fairly widespread minor flooding is within the realm of possibility this weekend, and moderate flooding at sensitive sites would be the worst-case scenario.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543.

SYNOPSIS . ADS NEAR TERM . ADS SHORT TERM . ADS LONG TERM . CJL AVIATION . ADS/CJL MARINE . ADS/CJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . ADS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 4 mi259 min NNW 16 G 22 51°F 53°F1013.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 7 mi259 min NNW 21 G 25
44042 - Potomac, MD 9 mi247 min WNW 29 G 31 49°F 53°F2 ft1012.3 hPa (-1.0)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 20 mi259 min NW 13 G 21 51°F 53°F1012.2 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 26 mi289 min NW 18 G 24 1012.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 27 mi259 min NW 19 G 24 51°F 51°F1011.6 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi265 min NNW 12 G 20 53°F 56°F1012.9 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 35 mi247 min NW 18 G 19 53°F2 ft1016.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi253 min NNW 19 G 21 50°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi259 min WNW 17 G 21 50°F 53°F1011.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 43 mi259 min NW 19 G 24 1013.3 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 45 mi277 min NNW 4.1 52°F 1014 hPa33°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD8 mi14 minW 17 G 2610.00 miFair63°F30°F29%1008.6 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD18 mi15 minNW 22 G 3110.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy61°F30°F32%1008.7 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi21 minWNW 9 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F23°F25%1009.5 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi12 minNW 13 G 2210.00 miFair60°F27°F29%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N74
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NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4453NW75NW9
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1 day agoE9E10
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2 days agoS9SW11SW6CalmN10
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NE7NE8NE6NE4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NE7N7N7NE84E14

Tide / Current Tables for Lynch Point, Yeocomico River, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 12:42 AM EDT     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:12 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     0.50 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:53 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:00 PM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:01 PM EDT     0.25 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.2-00.20.40.50.40.2-0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.20.20-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.