Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. George Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:47PM Saturday December 7, 2019 10:09 AM EST (15:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:23PMMoonset 2:22AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 937 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Rest of today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Building to 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 937 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build across the region through the weekend. A strong area of low pressure will then develop over the mid- mississippi valley and track northeastward toward the eastern great lakes early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday night through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George Island, MD
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location: 38.04, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 071057 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 557 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds into the area today, then slides off the New England coast Sunday. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes region early in the week, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 600 AM EST Saturday .

Sunny/cooler as high pressure builds in from the NW. Breezy this morning along the coast. Highs mid 40s north to near 50 south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 310 AM EST Saturday .

Clr/colder tonite. Lows mid-upr 20s except 30-35 near the water.

Sunny to start Sunday as the high pushes off the New England coast. Some increasing clouds from the south during the aftrn. A bit milder as winds turn to the ESE. Highs upr 40s NW to mid 50s SE.

Models diverge Sun night/Mon with respect to the track of the moisture that dvlps along a sfc trof along the coast. NAM/ECMWF track the best lift farther inland north up across the Piedmont while the GFS tracks the steadiest pcpn along the coast east of I95. NAM keeps enuf moisture across the region for ocnl shwrs thru the day Mon while the GFS cuts pcpn off during the aftrn.

Models do agree about a slower starting time so adjusted grids a bit to slow down the pcpn Sun eve before ramping up after midnite. A model compromise suggests chc PoPs across the north with low end likely PoPs across the south after midnite. Hints at an insitu-wedge dvlpng across the Piedmont as well. Lows upr 30s NW to near 50 SE. Highest PoPs thru 18Z Mon as the upr lvl disturbance moves ne with PoPs continuing Mon aftrn due to abundant low lvl moisture. Mild despite the clouds/pcpn with highs mid 50s NW to upr 60s SE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Friday .

The aforementioned trough aloft quickly amplifies across the Midwest Mon night-Tue as strong sfc low pressure deepens as it tracks from the Upper Midwest to SE Canada. A series of upper disturbances (in SW flow aloft) will continue to track toward/across the region through Tue as the associated cold front slowly approaches from the W/NW. Strong WAA will continue through Tue (850 mb temps rising to 8-11C by 12z Tue) under deep-layered SW flow. With the area likely remaining in the warm sector from Mon night-Tue, expect at least a chc of (occasional) showers to continue from Mon night through the first part of the day on Tue. Have PoPs in the 30-60% range for the most part from 00-18z Tue, as most of the rain will remain to our west through midday Tue (latest 12z/06 models are slowing the eastward progression of the upper trough axis). Mild Monday night with lows mainly in the 50s.

It is still looking like the frontal passage holds off until sometime during the latter half of the day on Tue. As a result, look for highs well into the 60s on Tuesday . with the potential for some low 70s in Hampton Roads/NE NC. PoPs increase to 60-70% by Tue aftn in all areas except for far SE VA/NE NC as the upper trough axis continues to slowly move toward the region. The cold front is progged to move S of the CWA by late Tue night, but a long-duration light to moderate rain is expected to continue before ending from NW to SE Wed AM (as the upper trough axis finally approaches/crosses the region). As cooler air filters into the region behind the front Tue night, the rain is expected to change over to snow in areas to our NW (while a cold rain continues across our CWA). Cannot rule out a brief changeover to snow (or a rain/snow mix) closer to 12z Wed across our far NW zones, but not expecting any impacts from snow that does fall (temps remain above freezing). Additionally, 12z/06 EPS probabilities of at least 1" of snow are only 10-20% across Louisa/Fluvanna counties from Tue night-Wed AM. Lows Tue night range from the mid 30s north/west to the low-mid 40s in SE VA/NE NC.

It will be dry but colder from Wed aftn-Thu as strong high pressure builds into the Great Lakes by midweek before quickly migrating eastward. The high becomes centered near/over the local area by Thursday evening. This will result in a short- lived period of below average temperatures from Wed night-Thu night, due to cold Canadian air sweeping across the region behind the departing front. Forecast highs are mainly in the mid-upper 40s on Wed (some readings around 50 across the SE), Colder on Thu with highs ranging from the upper 30s-low 40s. Lows Wed night/Thu night mainly in the 20s (although some teens are possible across NW zones). Model consensus is forecasting the high to move offshore of the New England Coast on Fri as low pressure develops near the Gulf Coast. This low will likely track across our region next weekend. However, it is looking like any threat for impacts due to wintry precipitation will likely remain N of the region (12z EPS probs for 1" of snow are ~0% across our CWA next weekend).

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 600 AM EST Saturday .

VFR conditions thru the fcst period as high pres builds in from the NW. Gusty N winds along the coast this morning diminish this aftrn.

OUTLOOK . Periods of showers dvlp late Sun night through Tue night, as low pressure tracks well to our NW (which will drag a strong cold front through the region). Degraded flight conditions are likely during this time period (due to both CIGs/VSBYs).

MARINE. As of 310 AM EST Saturday .

The cold front as of 230 AM has made it to the VA/NC border, and will continue to move S/SE through the remainder of the area over the next few hours. N/NW winds will pick up behind the front. Expect 15-25 kt winds with gusts around 30 kt. Waves in the bay will build to 2-4 ft and seas build to 4-6 ft over the coastal waters. SCA in effect for the bay, rivers, middle and upper coastal waters until 18Z, Currituck sound until 00Z, and extended the SCA for the southern coastal waters until 03Z Sunday for lingering seas.

Winds along with waves/seas subside by later tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure builds into the area for the remainder of the weekend. By Sunday afternoon winds will be easterly 5-10 kts. Waves in the bay 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft.

Monday a warm front lifts north across the area and the flow becomes southerly. SCA winds/waves are likely ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross the area on Tuesday, with the SCA conditions extending beyond the frontal passage into the middle of next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634>638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . ERI AVIATION . MPR MARINE . CMF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 4 mi63 min NE 11 G 17 41°F 44°F1029.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 7 mi51 min ENE 6 G 8.9
44042 - Potomac, MD 9 mi45 min 47°F 47°F967 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 20 mi51 min N 9.9 G 15 40°F 47°F1029.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 27 mi63 min NNE 8 G 12 39°F 43°F1029.6 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi63 min N 5.1 G 8 40°F 49°F1029.3 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi39 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 40°F 1030.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi63 min N 5.1 G 8.9 39°F 43°F1029.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 43 mi51 min NNE 19 G 22 1029.8 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 45 mi39 min NNE 5.1 41°F 1030 hPa29°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD8 mi76 minN 8 G 1610.00 miFair43°F19°F40%1029.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD18 mi77 minN 1310.00 miA Few Clouds41°F21°F47%1029.3 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair37°F23°F56%1029.8 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi74 minN 510.00 miFair39°F25°F58%1029.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Lynch Point, Virginia
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Lynch Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:50 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:26 AM EST     1.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:37 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:51 PM EST     1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.20.100.10.40.711.11.21.210.70.40.20.10.10.20.50.811.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sat -- 01:18 AM EST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:40 AM EST     0.56 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:36 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:22 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:24 PM EST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:40 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:06 PM EST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:03 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.50.60.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.20.10.30.20-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.