Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. George Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 6:08PM Sunday March 7, 2021 4:47 PM EST (21:47 UTC) Moonrise 2:44AMMoonset 12:13PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 340 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
Rest of this afternoon..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George Island, MD
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location: 38.04, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 072050 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 350 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure slowly builds into the area through tonight with dry weather continuing through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. As of 345 PM EST Sunday .

Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over Indiana and Kentucky. High pressure will continue to build into the area this afternoon and tonight before become centered over the FA Monday morning. Temps as of 3 PM ranged from the mid 40s to around 50F across the FA with dews in the teens for most (mid 20s for the immediate coastline). Mostly sunny this afternoon apart from a few cu in the piedmont and SE which will quickly dissipate after sunset. Mostly clear tonight with another near- ideal night for radiational cooling (especially inland). Lows are still forecast to be cold with low to mid 20s inland and mid to upper 20s along the coast. Isolated teens cannot be ruled out in typically colder locations such as Louisa.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Sunday .

High pressure over the FA Mon will gradually drift off the SE coast late Mon into Tues and remain centered off the SE coast through Wed. This will allow for a warming trend through the week with highs ranging from the upper 50s W to the low to mid 50s E (upper 40s for the Eastern Shore) Mon, mid to upper 60s Tues, and upper 60s to low 70s Wed. Lows will also warm with low 30s Mon night and upper 30s to around 40F Tues night. Mostly sunny through Wed with cloud cover increasing late afternoon into the evening (especially N) Tues before moving offshore Tues night.

The early week will remain dry with dews in the teens for most (low 20s in the SE and along the coast) Mon, upper 20s to mid 30s Tues, and in the 30s Wed. Minimum RH values are expected to be 15-20% inland and 25-30% along the coast Mon, 20-28% inland and 30-35% along the coast Tues, and 25-30% inland (30-35% inland for the Eastern Shore) and 30-40% along the coast.

Winds will shift from NW 5-10 MPH (10-15 MPH over the Eastern Shore) Mon to SW Mon night, remain light (5-10 MPH) Tues, and then become S and increase to 10 to 15 MPH with gusts perhaps to 20 MPH over the Eastern Shore Wed. Although fuel moisture is drying out, generally light winds will help mitigate fire weather potential with Wed appearing to be the highest threat if winds are stronger than expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 315 PM EST Sunday .

The medium range period continues to feature dry and warm conditions Thu-Fri, with increasing confidence that the pattern breaks down by the upcoming weekend. Above average temperatures prevail Thu-Fri followed by cooler temperatures over the weekend.

The model consensus is strong for the Thu-Fri period, and therefore confidence in this portion of the forecast is high. An upper level ridge will be centered over the Gulf of Mexico, and the ridge axis will extend ENE to the Carolinas. At the sfc, strong high pressure will be centered just off the mid-Atlantic/SE US coast Wed night/Thu, eventually weakening and moving farther offshore Fri-Sat as a cold front tries to approach from the NW. with a W to SW flow aloft and a SW flow in the low levels, temperatures will warm well above avg (though not to record levels). Mostly clear Wed night with lows mostly in the 40s, followed by mostly sunny conditions Thu with highs into the low- mid 70s most areas (65-70F eastern shore). With the somewhat breezy/well mixed airmass on Thu, a continued potential for increased fire danger exists as dew pts tend to be slow to moderate this time of year (only into the upper 30s to mid 40s). with corresponding min RH values potentially down to ~30%. Mild with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thu night, with another warm day likely on Fri. All of the deterministic 12Z/07 models keep a SW low level flow going as the upper ridge will be slow to break down. Thus, have highs forecast into the 70s again for all but sections of the eastern shore along the Bay/Ocean. Also have a dry forecast throughout with partly sunny skies N to mostly sunny S.

For the upcoming weekend, forecast confidences decreases significantly given a lot of model spread with regard to timing and spatial differences with the approaching cold front. At this point, the forecast remains close to the NBM which is a general compromise between the much slower (and more northerly position of the front per the GFS/GEFS) and the much faster (and more southerly position of the ECMWF). This yields a frontal passage during the day Sat, with highs ranging from around 70F across the south to the mid-upper 50s NE. This will almost certainly need to be fine tuned as we get closer in time. Given the uncertainty and with the front expected to lose moisture as it moves into the local area, PoPs will be capped at 20-30% and confined mainly to the day Sat and beyond. Lows in the 40s Sat night and highs Sun mostly ranging through the 50s. Skies will avg partly to mostly cloudy Sat-Sun.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 1235 PM EST Sunday .

VFR conditions through the 18z TAF period. Starting to see some cu develop around 4000-6000 ft in the piedmont and far SE. Cu will dissipate quickly after sunset in the SE but will linger through the evening around RIC before dissipating overnight. Winds will remain generally NW at RIC/SBY/PHF and NNE/NE at ORF/ECG at 7 to 10 kt through the afternoon. Winds become light tonight as high pressure becomes centered just W of the terminals.

OUTLOOK . Mainly VFR conditions persist into early next week.

MARINE. As of 315 PM EST Sunday .

This afternoon, high pressure is centered over the area with low pressure located well to the southeast. Winds are generally N to NE around 10 to 15 knots. Seas are generally 1 to 3 feet, while waves in the Bay are 1 to 2 feet. High pressure slowly drifts further east through Monday and becomes centered offshore Tuesday through mid- week. Winds become S to SW Tuesday through much of the week. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast through mid-week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/RMM NEAR TERM . RMM SHORT TERM . RMM LONG TERM . ERI/LKB AVIATION . RMM MARINE . AJB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 4 mi47 min ESE 8 G 8.9 39°F 44°F1027.2 hPa (-0.9)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 7 mi47 min NW 16 G 18
44042 - Potomac, MD 9 mi23 min ENE 5.8 G 5.8 39°F 41°F1027.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 20 mi47 min NNE 4.1 G 7 42°F 41°F1026.8 hPa (-0.8)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 26 mi47 min N 5.1 G 7 39°F 1027.7 hPa (-0.9)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 27 mi47 min N 8 G 13 44°F 46°F1027 hPa (-1.1)
NCDV2 34 mi47 min NW 7 G 9.9 46°F 43°F1026.6 hPa (-1.0)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi35 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 40°F 40°F1027.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi47 min NNW 7 G 8.9 42°F 41°F1027.2 hPa (-1.1)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 43 mi47 min N 16 G 17 1027.4 hPa (-0.9)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 45 mi77 min NNW 1.9 47°F 1028 hPa17°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD8 mi54 minENE 310.00 miFair48°F15°F27%1026.7 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD18 mi55 minNE 1110.00 miFair44°F14°F30%1026.9 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair43°F12°F29%1027.4 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi52 minN 710.00 miFair46°F12°F25%1027.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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CalmCalmNE3NE4CalmNE3E3E3NE3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmN566W7SW11W9NE7E5NE3
1 day agoW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Lynch Point, Virginia
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Lynch Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:22 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:28 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:37 AM EST     1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:13 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:30 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:26 PM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20.10.10.30.611.21.41.41.210.70.50.30.10.10.30.60.91.11.21.21

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sun -- 02:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:44 AM EST     0.64 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:28 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:49 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:12 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:52 PM EST     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:34 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:45 PM EST     0.22 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:35 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.4-0.200.30.60.60.50.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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