Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. George Island, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:51PM Saturday August 24, 2019 5:28 PM EDT (21:28 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:58PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 435 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..N winds 5 kt. Waves 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..S winds 5 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 435 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will settle north of the waters this weekend. Low pressure off the florida coast will likely move northward offshore of the eastern seaboard early next week. A cold front will approach the waters in the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday night into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George Island, MD
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location: 38.04, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 242026
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
426 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will remain stalled well to our south through the
weekend. High pressure will become centered over new england
Sunday night through Tuesday as low pressure is slow to lift
northeast well off the carolina coast.

Near term through Sunday
As of 355 pm edt Saturday...

latest analysis indicating yesterday's sfc cold front well off
to our s, with ~1028mb sfc high pressure centered over the
northern great lakes. Aloft, a trough is situated over eastern
ny pa and is progged by the models to slowly sag SE through the
evening. Ample low mid level moisture is in place over the
southern portion of the local area with radar depicting an area
of light showers over far southern va and NE nc, slowly
advancing eastward. Temperatures are significantly cooler than
the past several days and range from around 70f in south
central va to the mid upper 70s across the remainder of the
area.

Shortwave aloft rotates SE through the region tonight, but deep
layered moisture becomes confined to far SE sections so will
focus chance to low-end likely pops there (at least through
06z), with mainly dry conditions and clearing skies elsewhere.

Lows range from the mid to upper 50s NW to around 70f se.

By Sunday morning, the surface high looks like it will push the
moisture far enough south to limit the chances for any showers
to mainly NE nc and far SE va with drying of the mid and upper
level expected to continue through the day on Sunday suppressing
the pcpn farther south through the day. However, the low level
moisture should remain in place with strong easterly flow
through about 850 mb. That may be enough to hold clouds in place
and bring a few isolated showers to mainly areas along E of
i-95. Have a 20% pop in these areas by aftn. Highs will avg in
the upper 70s to around 80f under partly to mostly sunny skies
n, with partly to mostly cloudy skies s.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
As of 355 pm edt Saturday...

the forecast for Sunday night through Tue will be largely
dependent on the development evolution of a potential tropical
low pressure system moving slowly NE (but remaining offshore of)
the SE us coast. Given that this is likely to be tropical, will
be disregarding the NAM as it generally struggles greatly with
anything tropical. Following a gfs ECMWF wpc blend (with fairly
decent agreement) centers the sfc low NE off the ga north fl
coast Sun night, and lifts it slowly NE well off the carolina
coast mon-tue. High pressure generally remains in place over new
england and atlantic canada through the period. This keep a
persistent E to NE low level onshore flow into the local area.

Deeper moisture looks to stay offshore, but will see a gradual
increase in dew pts and precipitable water values through the
period. Have maintained mostly 20-30% pops for both Mon tue,
primarily due to the moisture overrunning the wedging high
rather than the sfc low itself (as it will be well offshore).

Again will need to monitor the potential tropical
development evolution early next week as a shift closer to the
coast would increase impacts (mainly from higher pops heavier
rain potential). Highs will be mainly in the upper 70s lower 80s
mon, and 80-85f tue, with lows in the 60s Sun night Mon am and
mid 60s to lower 70s Mon night Tue am. Skies will be partly to
mostly cloudy.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
As of 355 pm edt Saturday...

the early part of the extended forecast will depend much upon any
development and potential track of the tropical disturbance
currently off the fl coast. Latest NHC outlook keeps this system
will stay well off the local coast. Despite that, given the
proximity to the tropical system and the potential for some tropical
type showers to move across the area with a persistent ne-ene flow,
and some reinforcing moisture lift from weak upper disturbances
moving across the mid atlc and NE states in the w-sw flow aloft,
will maintain low chance pops Mon night through thu.

An upper-level trough will move into the great lakes for the end of
next week and the weekend. A cold front will approach the area from
the west. Ahead of the front, conditions should remain mostly dry
with temperature approaching 90 inland and mid 80s along the coast
for the first half of the holiday weekend.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
As of 200 pm edt Saturday...

scattered light rain showers will continue across far southern
va and NE nc into this evening. Still primarilyVFR conditions
(though some MVFR CIGS may affect kecg this evening tonight). N
to NE winds will range around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
20kt along the immediate coast and avg 5-10 kt farther inland.

Partly to mostly sunny N and partly-mostly cloudy S for Sunday
butVFR conditions are expected throughout. NE winds will again
be somewhat elevated gusty along the coast at 10-15kt with gusts
to 20 kt (with ~10kt inland).

Outlook: low pressure developing along a stalled front and
high pressure centered to our N NE will keep an easterly flow
across the region mon-tue, allowing for ample moisture, a chance
for showers, and the potential for sub-VFR ceilings from time
to time (especially at eastern TAF locations) mon-tue.

Marine
As of 415 pm edt Saturday...

late this aftn, sfc high pressure was centered over the ern
great lakes, with a frontal boundary now well to the south.

Ne winds were mainly 10-20 kt over the waters, with waves 1-3 ft
and seas 3-5 ft. The high will build eastward to over NRN new
england tonight thru mon, as weak low pressure will lift NE off
the SE coast. This will result in persistent NE winds of 10-20
kt with gusts to 25 kt possible thru the period. Waves will
build to 3-4 ft in the ches bay, and seas will build to 5-8 ft
over the ocean. So, at this time, have sca's for all the waters
except zns 635 636 637 thru the short term period.

Sca conditions for seas will likely linger into Wed morning, as
the flow remains onshore due to low pressure out over the
ocean.

Equipment
Techs are working on dox radar which is currently offline.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Monday for anz630>632-634-
650-652-654-656-658.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm edt Sunday for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Sunday for anz638.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Ajb lkb
long term... Cp mrd
aviation... Lkb
marine... Ajz tmg
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 4 mi65 min NE 5.1 G 8 77°F 79°F1020.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 7 mi59 min ENE 5.1 G 8
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 20 mi59 min NNE 7 G 9.9 75°F 82°F1020.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 26 mi59 min N 11 G 15 74°F 1021.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 27 mi65 min NE 6 G 12 76°F 81°F1020.7 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi65 min NNE 1.9 G 7 79°F 84°F1019.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi35 min NNE 9.7 G 14 76°F 1021.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi65 min ENE 14 G 16 75°F 82°F1020.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 43 mi65 min 1020.6 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 45 mi59 min NNE 1.9 77°F 1021 hPa62°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD8 mi36 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F60°F47%1020.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD18 mi37 minNNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F59°F50%1020.4 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi46 minNE 310.00 miFair75°F59°F57%1021 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi34 minN 410.00 miFair77°F55°F46%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN9445NE5NE3CalmCalm3CalmNE7N4NE5N6NE65N6NE6NE8N4N756
1 day agoS5CalmSW20
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SW4SW7SW6SW7W4SW7W7W6344Calm4NE5N74N7N8
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2 days agoSW8SW8SW8SW5SW9SW6SW6SW5W6W4SW6SW7SW5W3SW5SW6SW4SW5SW6SW8W6SW5S64

Tide / Current Tables for Lynch Point, Virginia
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Lynch Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:07 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:01 AM EDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:44 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:16 PM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.40.30.40.50.81.11.21.31.210.70.50.30.30.30.50.81.21.41.51.51.3

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sat -- 12:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:07 AM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT     0.16 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:27 PM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:57 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-00.20.50.60.50.30-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.