Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. George Island, MD
May 14, 2024 10:21 PM EDT (02:21 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 10:42 AM Moonset 12:45 AM |
ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 938 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning - .
Rest of tonight - SE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers late this evening, then showers with isolated tstms. Patchy fog late this evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm - . Decreasing to 1 nm or less.
Wed - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt - . Becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night - N winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 1009 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - A warm front north of the waters this evening will keep winds moderate to fresh from the south-southeast through tonight. Low pressure will meander from the ohio valley to the carolina coast over the next couple days, dragging a weakening cold front toward the local waters by Wednesday night. Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue to be possible through midweek. The cold front will become stationary before dissipating over south florida late this week.
Gulf stream hazards - South to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, may 14th.
41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, may 14th.
41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS61 KAKQ 150022 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 822 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Widespread showers, with periods of moderate to heavy rain prevail tonight. Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms continue Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon. Mainly dry Thursday, with additional showers and storms Friday night into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Widespread showers prevail this evening/overnight, diminishing after midnight from SW to NE.
- The heaviest rain is expected along and S of I-64, with rainfall totals of 1.00-1.50" with localized amounts of 2" or more possible. Generally 0.50"-1.00" in most other locations.
- Mainly just drizzle or very light rain Wed morning, with scattered showers and a few storms Wed aftn.
The latest wx analysis shows high pressure well offshore with low pressure centered across far southern IL/western KY. A closed upper low is now tracking across eastern MO with SW flow aloft over the Mid- Atlantic. The sky is now cloudy throughout the area with showers becoming widespread along and S of the I-64 corridor. Rainfall amounts so far have been light with the exception of the southern piedmont where 0.50"-0.80" has fallen since this morning.
The parent sfc low pressure system W of the Appalachians is expected to track slowly to the E into tonight, becoming stacked w/ height underneath the upper low. Meanwhile, secondary sfc low pressure continues to develop across SC/GA, and this will deepen into this evening across NC in response to continued height falls aloft. Expect the showers to become widespread to nearly the entire area by 6 PM or so as rather strong mid-level forcing/lift arrives from the SW and PWs climb to 1.6-1.8". Even as we remain on the cool side of the system w/ the warm front set up to our south, periods of moderate to heavy rain are likely. There will only be a few hundred J/kg of sfc- based instability...(if that) which will lead to some locally heavier showers but not expecting much in the way of thunder. Will maintain just a slight chc mention for thunder overnight across NE NC.
At this time, the highest QPF amounts still look to be over SE VA and NC, though model trends suggest nearly as much falls into central VA as well (co-located with 850-925mb WAA). Expect total QPF through Wed to avg 1.00-1.50" with local amounts over 2" along and S of I-64, with 0.50"-1.00 to the N/NE. While localized flooding will be possible, the cells will be moving tonight and FFG guidance is rather high so have not issued any Flood Watches. Temps will fall into the upper 50s-mid 60s tonight with breezy SE winds (gusts to 20-30 mph) developing near the coast just ahead of the deepening secondary low.
The mid levels are progged to dry out from SW to NE after midnight, so additional QPF after 06Z will be 0.10" or less to the S of I-64, though the low levels remain saturated through Wed morning. Have added the mention of drizzle between 09-15Z.
Otherwise, additional showers are expected Wed aftn, with the highest PoPs over the S. Highs Wed around 80F across interior NE NC, to the mid 60s across the far N (and perhaps barely 60F along the MD Atlantic coast).
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may persist. Mainly dry Friday.
The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the VA coast through a good part of Thursday. A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the coast through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the later aftn. Temps rise to the upper 60s on the eastern shore with mid 70s W of the Bay (possibly upper 70s across the far SW).
There may be just enough instability for an isolated shower inland during the aftn/early evening. Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s-60F with dry wx expected.
Shortwave ridging briefly moves over the area on Friday. Another system approaches late on Friday with a few showers/tstms possible west of I-95 late in the day, though the trend is slower so except over the far W, the latest forecast keeps PoPs at 10% or less through 00Z/Sat (8PM Fri). Highs range from the low-mid 70s at the coast to the upper 70s/around 80F well inland.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
- Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday night and especially over the weekend.
Better rain chances arrive over the weekend as another shortwave trough approaches from the SW. While it is still 4-5 days out, the best chance for showers/tstms appears to be on Saturday (highest coverage likely during the aftn/evening), with lingering showers possible on the back side of the system on Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages late this week into the weekend. Mainly dry wx returns early next week with temps warming to slightly above average.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 820 PM EDT Tuesday...
Deteriorating flight conditions tonight due to widespread moderate to heavy rain and low clouds. Primarily VFR to MVFR to start out the period, but expect ceilings to lower to IFR at all sites over the next few hours (latest at SBY). Rain may be heavy at times, with MVFR to IFR visibilities possible. The rain will mostly come to an end between 09-12Z (except at SBY), though low clouds and drizzle continue through Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Ceilings try to lift to MVFR at ECG and potentially PHF/ORF late Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon. Ceilings likely stay IFR at RIC and SBY through the period. Additional rain showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Outlook: Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday.
Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key messages:
- SCA conditions expected across local waters this evening into tomorrow for elevated winds as low pressure tracks across the area.
- SCA for coastal waters (northern zones) linger into Thurs due to seas remaining around 5ft.
High pressure is now well offshore as low pressure approaches from the west. Winds over most of the waters have turned to the SE at around 15kt, but far northern waters are still showing a more southerly direction. Buoy obs reflect seas of 2-3ft and waves at 1- 2ft (2-3ft at the mouth of the bay). Low pressure will track towards the area tonight, crossing the waters sometime tomorrow morning.
Winds will increase this evening and into tonight as the pressure gradient tightens. By this evenings, winds will be up to 15-20kt (gusts to 25kt) with the highest winds located in the southern coastal waters and lower bay. This axis of higher winds (associated w/ enhanced pressure falls) will gradually move northward into the rest of the coastal waters (on the nrn side of the low) into early Wednesday. Small craft advisories are in effect for all of the waters (upper rivers have been added) for frequent gusts to 25-30 kt, starting at 20z/4 PM today in the srn bay, 23z/7 PM for the upper bay and rivers, 2z/10 PM for the Currituck Sound and coastal waters S of Cape Charles, and then early Wed morning for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles. Waves in the bay become 2-4 ft tonight.
Seas will also increase to 4-6 ft, potentially up to 7 ft given the onshore flow. However, the relatively brief nature of the elevated easterly winds should prevent the nearshore seas from getting too high. Elevated seas persist longest in the nrn waters, so the current SCA there goes through early Thursday.
Winds then become N-NE for most of the waters Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as the low meanders offshore to our E. There is moderate disagreement in the global models regarding how long the low lingers and how close to shore it will be. This will result in at least breezy northerly winds through at least Thurs night.
Current forecast has the winds just below SCA criteria for most waters, so cannot rule out additional advisories. Conditions look to improve for the weekend, but with onshore flow forecast, cannot rule out seas building to 5ft just yet.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634- 638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 822 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Widespread showers, with periods of moderate to heavy rain prevail tonight. Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms continue Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon. Mainly dry Thursday, with additional showers and storms Friday night into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Widespread showers prevail this evening/overnight, diminishing after midnight from SW to NE.
- The heaviest rain is expected along and S of I-64, with rainfall totals of 1.00-1.50" with localized amounts of 2" or more possible. Generally 0.50"-1.00" in most other locations.
- Mainly just drizzle or very light rain Wed morning, with scattered showers and a few storms Wed aftn.
The latest wx analysis shows high pressure well offshore with low pressure centered across far southern IL/western KY. A closed upper low is now tracking across eastern MO with SW flow aloft over the Mid- Atlantic. The sky is now cloudy throughout the area with showers becoming widespread along and S of the I-64 corridor. Rainfall amounts so far have been light with the exception of the southern piedmont where 0.50"-0.80" has fallen since this morning.
The parent sfc low pressure system W of the Appalachians is expected to track slowly to the E into tonight, becoming stacked w/ height underneath the upper low. Meanwhile, secondary sfc low pressure continues to develop across SC/GA, and this will deepen into this evening across NC in response to continued height falls aloft. Expect the showers to become widespread to nearly the entire area by 6 PM or so as rather strong mid-level forcing/lift arrives from the SW and PWs climb to 1.6-1.8". Even as we remain on the cool side of the system w/ the warm front set up to our south, periods of moderate to heavy rain are likely. There will only be a few hundred J/kg of sfc- based instability...(if that) which will lead to some locally heavier showers but not expecting much in the way of thunder. Will maintain just a slight chc mention for thunder overnight across NE NC.
At this time, the highest QPF amounts still look to be over SE VA and NC, though model trends suggest nearly as much falls into central VA as well (co-located with 850-925mb WAA). Expect total QPF through Wed to avg 1.00-1.50" with local amounts over 2" along and S of I-64, with 0.50"-1.00 to the N/NE. While localized flooding will be possible, the cells will be moving tonight and FFG guidance is rather high so have not issued any Flood Watches. Temps will fall into the upper 50s-mid 60s tonight with breezy SE winds (gusts to 20-30 mph) developing near the coast just ahead of the deepening secondary low.
The mid levels are progged to dry out from SW to NE after midnight, so additional QPF after 06Z will be 0.10" or less to the S of I-64, though the low levels remain saturated through Wed morning. Have added the mention of drizzle between 09-15Z.
Otherwise, additional showers are expected Wed aftn, with the highest PoPs over the S. Highs Wed around 80F across interior NE NC, to the mid 60s across the far N (and perhaps barely 60F along the MD Atlantic coast).
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Drying out on Thursday, though clouds and a few spotty showers may persist. Mainly dry Friday.
The sfc low will likely linger offshore of the VA coast through a good part of Thursday. A bit of a transition day weatherwise for Thursday. Drier conditions overall in subsidence behind the departing trough, though low clouds may linger near the coast through the morning (and potentially longer on the eastern shore). We should see a decent amount of clearing inland by the later aftn. Temps rise to the upper 60s on the eastern shore with mid 70s W of the Bay (possibly upper 70s across the far SW).
There may be just enough instability for an isolated shower inland during the aftn/early evening. Lows Thu night range from the mid 50s-60F with dry wx expected.
Shortwave ridging briefly moves over the area on Friday. Another system approaches late on Friday with a few showers/tstms possible west of I-95 late in the day, though the trend is slower so except over the far W, the latest forecast keeps PoPs at 10% or less through 00Z/Sat (8PM Fri). Highs range from the low-mid 70s at the coast to the upper 70s/around 80F well inland.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
- Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday night and especially over the weekend.
Better rain chances arrive over the weekend as another shortwave trough approaches from the SW. While it is still 4-5 days out, the best chance for showers/tstms appears to be on Saturday (highest coverage likely during the aftn/evening), with lingering showers possible on the back side of the system on Sunday. Temps remain near seasonal averages late this week into the weekend. Mainly dry wx returns early next week with temps warming to slightly above average.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 820 PM EDT Tuesday...
Deteriorating flight conditions tonight due to widespread moderate to heavy rain and low clouds. Primarily VFR to MVFR to start out the period, but expect ceilings to lower to IFR at all sites over the next few hours (latest at SBY). Rain may be heavy at times, with MVFR to IFR visibilities possible. The rain will mostly come to an end between 09-12Z (except at SBY), though low clouds and drizzle continue through Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Ceilings try to lift to MVFR at ECG and potentially PHF/ORF late Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon. Ceilings likely stay IFR at RIC and SBY through the period. Additional rain showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Outlook: Conditions gradually improve Thursday into Friday.
Another low pressure system will bring showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers/tstms on Sunday.
MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key messages:
- SCA conditions expected across local waters this evening into tomorrow for elevated winds as low pressure tracks across the area.
- SCA for coastal waters (northern zones) linger into Thurs due to seas remaining around 5ft.
High pressure is now well offshore as low pressure approaches from the west. Winds over most of the waters have turned to the SE at around 15kt, but far northern waters are still showing a more southerly direction. Buoy obs reflect seas of 2-3ft and waves at 1- 2ft (2-3ft at the mouth of the bay). Low pressure will track towards the area tonight, crossing the waters sometime tomorrow morning.
Winds will increase this evening and into tonight as the pressure gradient tightens. By this evenings, winds will be up to 15-20kt (gusts to 25kt) with the highest winds located in the southern coastal waters and lower bay. This axis of higher winds (associated w/ enhanced pressure falls) will gradually move northward into the rest of the coastal waters (on the nrn side of the low) into early Wednesday. Small craft advisories are in effect for all of the waters (upper rivers have been added) for frequent gusts to 25-30 kt, starting at 20z/4 PM today in the srn bay, 23z/7 PM for the upper bay and rivers, 2z/10 PM for the Currituck Sound and coastal waters S of Cape Charles, and then early Wed morning for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles. Waves in the bay become 2-4 ft tonight.
Seas will also increase to 4-6 ft, potentially up to 7 ft given the onshore flow. However, the relatively brief nature of the elevated easterly winds should prevent the nearshore seas from getting too high. Elevated seas persist longest in the nrn waters, so the current SCA there goes through early Thursday.
Winds then become N-NE for most of the waters Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as the low meanders offshore to our E. There is moderate disagreement in the global models regarding how long the low lingers and how close to shore it will be. This will result in at least breezy northerly winds through at least Thurs night.
Current forecast has the winds just below SCA criteria for most waters, so cannot rule out additional advisories. Conditions look to improve for the weekend, but with onshore flow forecast, cannot rule out seas building to 5ft just yet.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634- 638.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 4 mi | 52 min | S 7G | 64°F | 69°F | 29.88 | ||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 7 mi | 52 min | S 11G | |||||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 9 mi | 46 min | SSE 12G | 61°F | 66°F | 1 ft | ||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 20 mi | 52 min | S 8.9G | 63°F | 66°F | 29.87 | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 26 mi | 52 min | SSE 17G | 64°F | 29.88 | |||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 27 mi | 52 min | SSE 13G | 66°F | 67°F | 29.88 | ||
| NCDV2 | 34 mi | 52 min | S 2.9G | 64°F | 68°F | 29.84 | ||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 35 mi | 46 min | SE 23G | 62°F | 67°F | 1 ft | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 36 mi | 40 min | SSE 18G | 60°F | 64°F | 2 ft | ||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 43 mi | 52 min | SE 5.1G | 64°F | 66°F | 29.90 | ||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 43 mi | 52 min | SE 19G | 29.92 | ||||
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 45 mi | 52 min | SE 2.9 | 61°F | 29.86 | 60°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNUI WEBSTER NOLF,MD | 8 sm | 28 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 64°F | 63°F | 94% | 29.87 |
| KNHK PATUXENT RIVER NAS/TRAPNELL FIELD/,MD | 18 sm | 29 min | SSE 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.87 |
| KXSA TAPPAHANNOCKESSEX COUNTY,VA | 24 sm | 26 min | ESE 05 | 7 sm | Overcast | Rain | 63°F | 63°F | 100% | 29.88 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Lynch Point, Yeocomico River, Virginia, Tide feet
Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true
Tue -- 01:45 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:01 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:33 AM EDT 0.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:29 AM EDT -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:41 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:01 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT 0.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:48 PM EDT -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true
Tue -- 01:45 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:01 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:33 AM EDT 0.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:29 AM EDT -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:41 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:01 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT 0.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:48 PM EDT -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.3 |
| 1 am |
| -0.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0.5 |
| 10 am |
| -0.7 |
| 11 am |
| -0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| -0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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