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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 933 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming sw 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A slight chance of rain.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of rain.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 knots.
Mon..N winds around 5 knots.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 knots.
Tue..N winds around 5 knots.
Wed..SW winds around 5 knots. A chance of rain.

PZZ500 933 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
gusty northwesterly winds will weaken into early this weekend. Elevated seas will develop as a long period northwest swell builds on Saturday. A larger northwest swell with a 16-21 second period will result in a continuation of elevated seas into the mid portion of next week. Unsettled weather will bring intermittent rain shower chances to the northern waters into this weekend.

FXUS66 KMTR 020548 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 948 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 224 AM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Cool, unsettled weather for the next few days followed by a warming trend into early next week. An approaching trough of low pressure towards the end of the next workweek will bring the return of unsettled weather.

UPDATE
Issued at 945 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

A low amplitude shortwave riding northwest flow aloft was advancing through the Bay Area this evening. Scattered showers were ongoing within a weak low level warm advection regime. Rain amounts so far range from around 0.25" within the southern Sonoma County hills to around 0.01" in downtown San Francisco. These showers should continue their southward trek while gradually weakening/dissipating around Monterey Bay. Based on their current speed and intensity did make a few minor forecast adjustments to bring rain chances south to encompass the Monterey Bay while increasing the timing just a tad. Really not looking for much in the way of measurable amounts this far south however. Other than these adjustments the going forecast is in good shape for the evening.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 114 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Filtered sunshine for a good portion of the Bay Area and Central Coast this afternoon as mainly high clouds stream over the region.
A thicker band of clouds cover portions of the North Bay and those are associated with an approaching cold front. Chilly start to the day and filtered sunshine have led to slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon compare to yesterday afternoon. Max temps this afternoon will top out in the 50s and 60s.

Speaking of a cold front, latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front is still lurking to the north of the Bay Area. One minor change from the forecast was to delay the onset of precip this evening/overnight as the front moves south. Models have been trending slower with precip moving into the North Bay this evening. Therefore, precip will initially remain north of the Golden Gate through roughly midnight. And by precip, we mean showers with a 15-30%. After midnight, precip chances ease southward as the front washes out over the Bay Area late tonight through Saturday. Saturday can be categorized as cooler with scattered showers into the afternoon. Not a wash out by any means, but a few showers possible nonetheless. Showers chances will lift northward late Saturday as high pressure begins to nose in from the SW.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 139 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Showers chances will lingering over the North Bay late Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds in from the SW. The building high pressure will lead to increased sunshine on Sunday through Tuesday with drier conditions and warmer daytime temperatures. Total rainfall will generally be a 0.10" or less most area (S of San Jose little to no precip) and possibly up to 0.50" far North Bay.

The drier weather will be short lived as the ridge of high pressure gets buffeted by another cold front. Showers return to the forecast Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Rainfall chances once again will be greatest north of the Golden Gate, but this go around shower chances do make it to Monterey county by Wednesday afternoon. Unsettled/showery weather will linger into Friday.

Once the precip tapers off on Friday the focus then turns to overnight lows. Longer range guidance suggests another round of chilly to cold night with frost/freeze conditions possible.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 945 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Currently seeing light rain showers mosey their way across the Bay Area as the weak cold front passes by. The bulk of the shower activity will occur tomorrow during the day before tapering off in the late afternoon. All terminals will remain at or slightly above MVFR status throughout the TAF period, along with APC forecast to be in IFR territory between 12Z and 18Z and STS to remain in the LIFR/IFR category until 21Z. With the exception of APC and STS, there are no forecast visibility reductions to the terminals; however, if a shower were to develop over the terminal, visibilities may be briefly reduced. Best chances for showers are from SJC north.

Vicinity of SFO... Currently MVFR with showers approaching the terminal. There may be some more showers behind this initial round, but a majority of the shower activity is being reserved for tomorrow between 11Z and 00Z. There are no forecast reductions to visibility; however, if a shower were to develop over the terminal, visibilities may be briefly reduced. A clearing period between 00Z and 11Z Sunday is forecast to occur before the hint at another MVFR ceiling at the tail end of the TAF period. Winds tomorrow will be lighter than what they were today.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR at both TAF sites; although, this will quickly turn to MVFR as the cloud shield of the weak cold front approaches. Showers were left out of the TAFs; however, it is not out of the realm of possibility that they may need to be included in later TAF issuances if this weak cold front proves to have more integrity to it than what we are seeing so far. MRY will see their MVFR ceiling after 10Z and retain it until about 19Z when there is a brief clearing period before getting it back at 2Z. There is now higher confidence that SNS will obtain an MVFR ceiling tonight by about 13Z and retain it until about 19Z. Both terminals will experience drainage flow until about 19Z tomorrow morning.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 945 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

Gusty northwesterly winds will weaken into early this weekend.
Elevated seas will develop as a long period northwest swell builds on Saturday. A larger northwest swell with a 16-21 second period will result in a continuation of elevated seas into the mid portion of next week. Unsettled weather will bring intermittent rain shower chances to the northern waters into this weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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Pinole Point
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Fri -- 04:37 AM PST     4.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:06 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:05 AM PST     3.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:12 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:23 PM PST     5.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:48 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:48 PM PST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pinole Point, San Pablo Bay, California, Tide feet

Petaluma River Approach %233/%234, San Pablo Bay, California Current, knots

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