Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stockton, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:43PM Saturday December 7, 2019 7:15 AM EST (12:15 UTC) Moonrise 2:18PMMoonset 2:17AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 638 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds, subsiding to 3 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds early this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly ne swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 4 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft early in the morning. Showers.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
ANZ600 638 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure across the area this weekend. Low pressure tracks across the great lakes region early next week, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stockton, MD
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location: 38.07, -75.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 071057 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 557 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds into the area today, then slides off the New England coast Sunday. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes region early in the week, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 600 AM EST Saturday .

Sunny/cooler as high pressure builds in from the NW. Breezy this morning along the coast. Highs mid 40s north to near 50 south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 310 AM EST Saturday .

Clr/colder tonite. Lows mid-upr 20s except 30-35 near the water.

Sunny to start Sunday as the high pushes off the New England coast. Some increasing clouds from the south during the aftrn. A bit milder as winds turn to the ESE. Highs upr 40s NW to mid 50s SE.

Models diverge Sun night/Mon with respect to the track of the moisture that dvlps along a sfc trof along the coast. NAM/ECMWF track the best lift farther inland north up across the Piedmont while the GFS tracks the steadiest pcpn along the coast east of I95. NAM keeps enuf moisture across the region for ocnl shwrs thru the day Mon while the GFS cuts pcpn off during the aftrn.

Models do agree about a slower starting time so adjusted grids a bit to slow down the pcpn Sun eve before ramping up after midnite. A model compromise suggests chc PoPs across the north with low end likely PoPs across the south after midnite. Hints at an insitu-wedge dvlpng across the Piedmont as well. Lows upr 30s NW to near 50 SE. Highest PoPs thru 18Z Mon as the upr lvl disturbance moves ne with PoPs continuing Mon aftrn due to abundant low lvl moisture. Mild despite the clouds/pcpn with highs mid 50s NW to upr 60s SE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Friday .

The aforementioned trough aloft quickly amplifies across the Midwest Mon night-Tue as strong sfc low pressure deepens as it tracks from the Upper Midwest to SE Canada. A series of upper disturbances (in SW flow aloft) will continue to track toward/across the region through Tue as the associated cold front slowly approaches from the W/NW. Strong WAA will continue through Tue (850 mb temps rising to 8-11C by 12z Tue) under deep-layered SW flow. With the area likely remaining in the warm sector from Mon night-Tue, expect at least a chc of (occasional) showers to continue from Mon night through the first part of the day on Tue. Have PoPs in the 30-60% range for the most part from 00-18z Tue, as most of the rain will remain to our west through midday Tue (latest 12z/06 models are slowing the eastward progression of the upper trough axis). Mild Monday night with lows mainly in the 50s.

It is still looking like the frontal passage holds off until sometime during the latter half of the day on Tue. As a result, look for highs well into the 60s on Tuesday . with the potential for some low 70s in Hampton Roads/NE NC. PoPs increase to 60-70% by Tue aftn in all areas except for far SE VA/NE NC as the upper trough axis continues to slowly move toward the region. The cold front is progged to move S of the CWA by late Tue night, but a long-duration light to moderate rain is expected to continue before ending from NW to SE Wed AM (as the upper trough axis finally approaches/crosses the region). As cooler air filters into the region behind the front Tue night, the rain is expected to change over to snow in areas to our NW (while a cold rain continues across our CWA). Cannot rule out a brief changeover to snow (or a rain/snow mix) closer to 12z Wed across our far NW zones, but not expecting any impacts from snow that does fall (temps remain above freezing). Additionally, 12z/06 EPS probabilities of at least 1" of snow are only 10-20% across Louisa/Fluvanna counties from Tue night-Wed AM. Lows Tue night range from the mid 30s north/west to the low-mid 40s in SE VA/NE NC.

It will be dry but colder from Wed aftn-Thu as strong high pressure builds into the Great Lakes by midweek before quickly migrating eastward. The high becomes centered near/over the local area by Thursday evening. This will result in a short- lived period of below average temperatures from Wed night-Thu night, due to cold Canadian air sweeping across the region behind the departing front. Forecast highs are mainly in the mid-upper 40s on Wed (some readings around 50 across the SE), Colder on Thu with highs ranging from the upper 30s-low 40s. Lows Wed night/Thu night mainly in the 20s (although some teens are possible across NW zones). Model consensus is forecasting the high to move offshore of the New England Coast on Fri as low pressure develops near the Gulf Coast. This low will likely track across our region next weekend. However, it is looking like any threat for impacts due to wintry precipitation will likely remain N of the region (12z EPS probs for 1" of snow are ~0% across our CWA next weekend).

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 600 AM EST Saturday .

VFR conditions thru the fcst period as high pres builds in from the NW. Gusty N winds along the coast this morning diminish this aftrn.

OUTLOOK . Periods of showers dvlp late Sun night through Tue night, as low pressure tracks well to our NW (which will drag a strong cold front through the region). Degraded flight conditions are likely during this time period (due to both CIGs/VSBYs).

MARINE. As of 310 AM EST Saturday .

The cold front as of 230 AM has made it to the VA/NC border, and will continue to move S/SE through the remainder of the area over the next few hours. N/NW winds will pick up behind the front. Expect 15-25 kt winds with gusts around 30 kt. Waves in the bay will build to 2-4 ft and seas build to 4-6 ft over the coastal waters. SCA in effect for the bay, rivers, middle and upper coastal waters until 18Z, Currituck sound until 00Z, and extended the SCA for the southern coastal waters until 03Z Sunday for lingering seas.

Winds along with waves/seas subside by later tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure builds into the area for the remainder of the weekend. By Sunday afternoon winds will be easterly 5-10 kts. Waves in the bay 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft.

Monday a warm front lifts north across the area and the flow becomes southerly. SCA winds/waves are likely ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross the area on Tuesday, with the SCA conditions extending beyond the frontal passage into the middle of next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634>638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . MPR SHORT TERM . MPR LONG TERM . ERI AVIATION . MPR MARINE . CMF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 22 mi16 min 50°F4 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 22 mi52 min NNE 13 G 20 41°F 48°F1027.4 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 37 mi46 min NNE 6 G 8 41°F 45°F1026.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 39 mi52 min N 4.1 G 8 38°F 42°F1027.7 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 42 mi26 min N 21 G 27 41°F 54°F6 ft1023.7 hPa (+3.6)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA12 mi22 minN 710.00 miFair37°F27°F67%1027.2 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi23 minN 1110.00 miFair38°F25°F60%1027.4 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD21 mi22 minN 810.00 miFair36°F25°F64%1027.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmNE5CalmCalmE4--SW9W7W8CalmSW5SW6W3W5NW4NW3W4CalmCalmNW7W4W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Assacorkin Island, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland
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Assacorkin Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:32 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:17 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM EST     0.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:09 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:48 PM EST     0.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1000.10.20.30.40.40.40.40.30.20.20.10.10.10.20.30.30.40.40.40.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Public Landing, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland
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Public Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:17 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:17 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:57 AM EST     0.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:54 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:13 PM EST     0.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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