Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stockton, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:55PM Friday September 25, 2020 9:49 AM EDT (13:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:50PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 714 Am Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A slight chance of rain late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of rain until early morning, then a chance of showers late.
Sat..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 714 Am Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Surface low pressure will approach the area from the southwest today, and slowly move across the region through Saturday. Weak high pressure settles across the waters Sunday into Monday. A cold front approaches from the west on Tuesday and crosses the local area on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stockton, MD
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location: 38.07, -75.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 251125 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 725 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure approaches and moves south of the area today with rain likely. Low pressure exits the region late Saturday with a ridge building on Sunday. An anomalously amplified pattern develops over the country on Monday with a large trough approaching the region by the middle part of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 655 AM EDT Friday .

Temperatures are currently in the upper 50s to low 60s as of 6:30 AM. The remnant low of what used to be Beta in the gulf will move south of the region through Georgia and into South Carolina today through Saturday. A shortwave moving through at the same time will act to enhance moisture north of the low, allowing for a rainy day today for the local area. Rain is already occuring over the region this morning and will continue to increase in coverage from SW to NE through the day. Total rainfall is expect to range from 0.75 to 1.00 inches west of I-95, 0.5 to 0.75 inches along the I-95 corridor and into NE NC, and less than 0.5 inches in Eastern Va and into the Eastern Shore. WPC currently has the SW portion of the CWA in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. While widespread flooding is not expected, isolated ponding of water will be possible with any heavier rounds of rain. Rain chances diminish overnight with mainly lighter rain possible especially in the piedmont into NE NC.

The in-situ wedge will keep cool and cloudy skies through the day with highs only in the mid to upper 60s over most locations and upper 60s to low 70s over the Eastern Shore. Clouds will also help to keep temperatures from changing much overnight with lows ranging from around 60F NE to the mid to upper 60s SE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 AM EDT Friday .

The short wave finally moves offshore Saturday with light rain possible over the Eastern Shore through much of the day and isolated to scattered showers possible over the piedmont through the afternoon. Any remaining rain should taper off shortly after sunset. Highs in the mid to upper 70s expected Saturday with lows in the low to mid 60s Saturday night.

Mostly dry conditions on Sunday as high pressure builds into the area with weak upper ridging aloft. Southerly flow will allow dew points to creep back up to the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temps will be above normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 330 AM EDT Friday .

Next week a deep trough will develop over the center of the country and move east during the week. There is significant model differences with the GFS being the most progressive. It brings the trough through the northeast Wed/Thu with a cold front swinging through the area on Wednesday. The ECMWF develops a cut off low over the deep south early in the week and this feature slowly moves east before being absorbed back into the broader flow and a shortwave crosses the Mid Atlantic on Friday. The result of this pattern is that the cold front on Wednesday stalls over the area or just to the west of our area until the shortwave finally pushes it through the area late in the week. It should be noted that the Canadian model also forms a cut off low early in the week but advances the feature quicker than the ECMWF. Due to the model differences, will carry at least chance pops in each day, with the highest pops on Tuesday ahead of the cold front. The warmest day of the week will be Monday with high temps in the lower 80s. Temps the rest of the week will be at or slightly below normal.

AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 700 AM EDT Friday .

MVFR visibilities at SBY due to 3SM fog but otherwise, VFR conditions at all other terminals this morning. Ceilings fall to MVFR with light rain coverage increasing over the next few hours as low pressure slowly drifts closer to the area. Only exception is SBY where rain chances are the lowest during the period, and ceilings are expected to become VFR after 14z. IFR ceilings will be likely in the piedmont after 00Z (RIC may see IFR a couple hours before 00z Saturday) and may reach the eastern terminals (ORB/PHF/ECG) after 06z Saturday. Winds are light and variable this morning, becoming E/SE by this afternoon at PHF/ORF/ECG, and S/SW at RIC/SBY. After 00Z winds at all locations should be E/SE. Wind speeds during the period generally 10 kts or less.

Sub-VFR ceilings likely to remain through Saturday until the shortwave moves through the area, and then improving conditions expected for Sunday with high pressure building into the area.

MARINE. As of 355 AM EDT Friday .

Sub-SCA conditions to prevail through the next several days. Weak low pressure will be over GA/SC this morning and will slowly lift NE and off the Carolina coast ON Sat. Light SW winds this morning will shift to the E this aftn/evening over the southern waters, and speeds will tend to increase a bit (but still remaining below SCA thresholds given a rather weak pressure gradient). Seas today will avg around 2 ft N and 2-3 ft S, with waves in the Bay 1 foot or less N and building to 1-2 ft S later in the aftn. On Sat morning, winds will be southeast at 10-15 kt as the low pressure moves across the Carolinas. The low weakens/transitions into a trough off the coast later Sat, allowing winds to shift to the E and then to the N Sat night. Winds decrease Sunday to a light SE/S wind at 5-10 kt as the pres gradient relaxes. Seas will still be 2-3 ft as there will be some lingering swell while waves in the Bay drop to 1 ft.

Southerly winds increase Mon-Tue ahead of the next system though models remain quite different with respect to the strength and timing of the front through midweek. A slower solution would suggest winds remain lighter and southerly while the GFS remains the fastest to bring the front E of the Appalachians with SCA conditions possible ahead of the front Tue and in its wake on Wed. At this point, the GFS scenario is beginning to look less likely and will forecast sub-SCA conditions wind-wise. SCA conditions for seas may be needed for the coastal waters Tue- Wed however.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . RMM NEAR TERM . RMM SHORT TERM . CMF/RMM LONG TERM . CMF AVIATION . CMF/RMM MARINE . LKB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 22 mi24 min 69°F2 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 22 mi50 min NW 5.1 G 7 65°F
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 37 mi50 min Calm G 1 66°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 39 mi50 min W 6 G 7 67°F
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 42 mi60 min 2 ft

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA12 mi56 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds67°F64°F93%1020.2 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi57 minWNW 45.00 miFog/Mist66°F63°F90%1020.3 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD21 mi56 minN 07.00 miFair64°F61°F90%1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Assacorkin Island, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland
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Assacorkin Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:04 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EDT     0.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:15 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:10 PM EDT     0.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Public Landing, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland
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Public Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:49 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:07 AM EDT     0.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:35 PM EDT     0.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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