Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Pocomoke, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Freezing Fog Advisory in effect for most of the area until 9AM.

High pressure is centered near the region early this morning.
Satellite imagery and surface observations show widespread fog and low stratus over nearly the entire CWA Temperatures are below freezing for all but the far SE corner (NE NC and coastal SE VA).
Freezing Fog Advisory is in effect until 9AM with a Dense Fog Advisory until 9AM for the remainder of the area. Expect visibilities to improve through the morning but low stratus may be tough to dislodge once again today. Will be optimistic and show some clearing in the afternoon. Temps will depend heavily on cloud cover so have gone below the blended guidance with highs in the low 40s NW to the upper 40s SE. High pressure moves offshore late, allowing winds to become light out of the S.

A dry cold front crosses the area tonight with increasing northerly winds moving into the region after midnight. Low temps dip into the upper 20s to low 30s for most spots with mid and upper 30s SE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Potential is increasing for an impactful snow event across mainly the SW half of the area on Monday.

- Dry and cold Tuesday.

Low pressure deepens off the Carolina coast early Monday. Aloft, a short wave trough traverses the local area Monday morning into the afternoon which will provide enough lift for precip across the southern half to two thirds of the area. 00z guidance continues to trend wetter vs previous runs with forecast QPF now >0.1" for areas along and south of the US-460 corridor with 0.15-0.25" near and south of the VA/NC border. These values may still be on the conservative side with 00z deterministic GFS/ECMWF generally showing up to 0.2" of QPF as far north as US-460 and into the Norfolk Metro with higher values to the south. High pressure to the north will supply a good feed of cold/dry air into the region, so have gone below the blended guidance and show temps holding roughly steady in the morning and then falling through the afternoon. Models are in decent agreement showing precip spreading east from the Piedmont in the morning and continuing through the afternoon across the southern half of the area. With the increasing QPF, 00z ensemble guidance continues to trend upward with respect to snow probabilities with both the GEFS and ENS/AIFS ENS showing 60-80% chances for snow >1" over the southwest CWA The GEPS is even a bit higher with 80-100% probs for >1". Probs for >3" are lower but these are trending upward with each iteration as well. Still not convinced that this event will rise to the level of Winter Storm Watch/Warning (4+" in 12 hours) but given the trends, cannot rule out warning-level accumulations somewhere in the SW CWA either. Very cold temps aloft also argue for snow to liquid ratios to be higher than 10:1, especially in the afternoon as cold advection strengthens. Forecast soundings show saturation or supersaturation with respect to ice in the DGZ so expect most of the precip to fall as snow or perhaps a brief rain/snow mix at the onset. The far SE portion of the area remains problematic with colder air taking longer to arrive. If moisture can linger over these areas into the late afternoon or after sunset, accumulating snowfall is possible. For now, will show the highest snow accumulations generally from Farmville eastward along US-460 to I-95 and points south.

Very cold air moves into the region Monday night with low temps in the mid teens west of I-95 with upper teens to the low/mid 20s to the east. Continued cold Tuesday with some areas likely not warming out of the 30s depending on snow cover.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

- Milder Wednesday and Thursday.

- Another front crosses the region late in the week with colder temps and precip potential.

Medium range models and ensembles are in decent agreement that midweek should be milder as a deep upper trough amplifies across central Canada, with low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes.
This allows for an increasing SW low level flow Wed, with highs into the 50s for most. Remaining relatively mild Wed night and Thursday, with increasing rain chances Thursday night/Friday as the next system impacts the region. Precip potentially changes over to a rain/snow mix before ending Friday night. Saturday looks dry and cold as high pressure builds in from the NW.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 125 AM EST Sunday...

Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions in place over much of the region early this morning. Freezing Fog Advisory includes the RIC, SBY, and PHF terminals until 14z. 1/4SM VSBY (or lower in a few spots). Satellite shows LIFR conditions spreading SE and will likely impact ORF over the next hour or so. Temperatures across the SE terminals are still above freezing so not expecting widespread FZFG at ORF. ECG may escape the fog but CIGs fall to IFR prior to sunrise. Light and variable winds overnight continue through the end of the period.

Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions return by Sunday night.
Another system Monday morning may bring degraded flight conditions, especially to the S terminals, behind a strong cold front.

MARINE
As of 220 AM EST Sunday...

- Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect this morning. Otherwise, benign marine conditions through this evening.

- Another round of SCAs expected early Monday through Tuesday morning, as a strong cold front moves across the local waters.
A period of gale force gusts are possible on Monday, with the best chance over the coastal zones and into the Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.

- Another system may bring degraded marine conditions to the area Wednesday through the end of the week.

Weak high pressure continues to build over the local waters from the west this morning. Obs and buoy reports as of this writing reveal W-NW winds ~5 kt in the rivers and bay, 5-10 kt just offshore. Waves of around 1 ft in the bay, rivers and sound, with seas 2-3 ft north, 3-4 ft south. Currently noting areas of fog over the waters, and a Marine Dense Fog Advy is in effect through mid-morning for the bay and eastern VA rivers. Light and variable winds continue this morning, with light winds veering around to the W-SW this afternoon and this evening. Waves remain around 1 ft and seas subsiding to 2-3 ft along the coastal zones.

Marine conditions are still expected to rapidly deteriorate early Monday morning. Strong high pressure will push a strong cold front through the area late tonight into early Monday morning. Winds will increase sharply in the wake of the front, as an area of low pressure skirts northeast off the Carolina coast. The past few successive runs of the CAMs have been stronger and closer to the coast with the low, with the resultant tighter pressure gradient resulting in an increased chance of Gale Force gusts in post-frontal CAA. It does look increasingly likely that a 6-10 hour period of gale- force gusts accompanies the initial push of this drier, colder air pushing into the region, along with some rain and snow showers.
Still lower confidence with regard to the exact duration of Gale Force gusts, but there is enough confidence for the central and southern coastal zones south of Wachapreague, as well as the Currituck Sound and the Mouth of the Ches Bay, to add a Gale Watch for Monday. Have run the headline from mid- morning Monday through midnight Monday/early Tuesday. For the remaining zones, while a brief period of Gale force gusts is possible, they appear brief enough to handle with SMWs as needed, and thus a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the duration of the event from late tonight through Tuesday morning. It is possible that later shifts may have to extend out a bit farther out, as weak CAA lingers into the day on Tuesday as high pressure builds across the area, and also as seas linger AOA 5 ft.

Winds diminish Tuesday into Tuesday night, but ramp back up again early Wed as a warm front lifts across the region. Another strong cold frontal passage brings another period of strong SCA to low-end Gales by Friday into next weekend.

As winds increase on Monday, waves will rapidly build to 3-5 ft in the Bay (highest at the mouth of the Bay) and seas will build to 6-9 ft over the coastal waters. Despite an expected gradual downtrend in winds Tuesday, seas will be slower to subside, and will likely remain near or just briefly drop below SCA criteria before building again with the second wind surge forecast for Wednesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025.
NC...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>014.
VA...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-097-099-509>524.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ095-098- 100-525.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632- 634>638.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-650-652.
Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for ANZ635>638.