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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 633 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am est this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..W winds 10 kt...becoming sw with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
Sun..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.

ANZ500 633 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure gradually build south of the waters today before sliding offshore Thursday. Additional small craft advisories might be needed for portions of the waters this afternoon into tonight due to southerly channeling. Another frontal system moves through the area by late in the week, with small craft advisories possible Thursday night and Friday. Additional weak disturbances move across the waters this weekend into early next week.

FXUS61 KAKQ 291213 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 713 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains centered south of the area today into Thursday with dry cold conditions prevailing today. Temperatures moderate on Thursday, and remain mild through the weekend. The next chance for rain arrives Friday and again Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EST Wednesday...

The latest analysis indicates ~1027mb sfc high pressure centered across Louisiana/southern Mississippi, ridging NE up through the Carolina coastal plain. The flow aloft is from the W to WNW around the base of a deep upper low centered across Hudson Bay Canada, with a shortwave currently passing through the Great Lakes. Other than a few high clouds, the sky is mainly clear and winds are mostly light or calm across the interior zones, with some mixing still continuing near the coast. Temperatures are very cold with some of the sheltered rural areas well inland down into the 15-20F range, with more urban areas such as metro RIC in the low-mid 20s. Closer to the coast and across all of the ern shore where there is some wind, readings are mostly in the mid 20s to around 30F. Expect temperatures to fall a few more degrees through daybreak. The record lows for today are included in the Climate Section below, with ECG being the only site that has a chance to challenge the record.

The sfc high will gradually move east today, becoming centered from Alabama to the Carolina coast by this evening as low pressure moves across Ontario/Quebec. This setup will allow winds to shift around to the SW by later this morning through the aftn. Mixing per BUFKIT soundings will be to around 925mb today, so temperatures remain well below normal despite mainly sunny skies and a SW wind direction. Expect highs to range from the low-mid across the entire region (generally coldest over the ern shore where it may barely break into the low 40s). Wind speeds will average around 10 mph this aftn with a few gusts to 15-20 mph, keeping wind chills cold all day with afternoon readings in the upper 30s to around 40F. Very dry again with aftn dew pts in the single digits to the teens. The sfc high remains centered across the Carolinas tonight, with the best radiational cooling setup over souther portions of the FA.
Mainly clear and cold again with lows mostly in the low-mid 20s inland, to the mid 20s to around 30F in urban areas and along the coast (locally low-mid 30s NC Outer Banks).

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 AM EST Wednesday...

High pressure remains in control of our weather pattern (centered just south of the local area) during the day on Thursday. Temperatures moderate Thursday afternoon, with highs ranging through the 50s area-wide due to southwest flow at the surface and warming/ridging developing aloft. Partly-mostly sunny with just some high clouds. Partly cloudy, with increasing clouds Thu night and lows in the low-mid 30s for most, around 40F near the coast.

The center of high pressure will be well offshore by Friday morning. Meanwhile, low pressure will be tracking ENE from the the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley by aftn. The pattern still is one where the trough aloft weakens as it reaches the Appalachians later Friday, so even with a period of likely PoPs Fri aftn into early Fri evening (chc PoPs S), QPF amounts are not expected to be a lot, generally from a few hundredths to up to 0.25" at most. It will be mild Friday with highs ranging from the lower 50s NW (where clouds and precip arrive earliest) to the low-mid 60s SE where most of the day may end up dry.

A cold front weakens as it moves into the area Friday night, bringing an end to most of the remaining precipitation, though the trend is for lingering clouds and mild temperatures Fri night with lows in the low 40s NW (where it may partially clear out), to the low-mid 50s SE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 350 AM EST Wednesday...

Overall, the pattern through the weekend into early next week is a bit unsettled with above normal temperatures, though with continued disagreement amongst the operational global models, it remains rather uncertain as to timing and with respect to rain chances. As is typical in progressive flow pattern likes this, timing shortwaves and fronts at this range is very difficult. Using the blended guidance suggests the best chances for rain will be Saturday night through Sunday (with Saturday itself mainly dry aside from some lingering PoPs ~20% over the southern zones). The blended timing has low pressure mostly pushing offshore by Sun afternoon so have trended down PoPs later in the day and tapering them to 20% or less Sun night into Mon AM. The models in general then track a northern stream system across the Great Lakes to the NE CONUS Mon-early Tue. A lot of uncertainty here, but will show PoPs again into the 30-40% range for Monday. Remaining mild Sun-Mon with lows in the 40s/50s, and highs mostly into the 60s both day (possibly staying in the 50s across the N). Drying out and turning cooler Tuesday with highs in the 50s.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 700 AM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 12z/29 TAF period with mainly clear skies. Winds will be light through 15Z, then as high pressure becomes centered S of the area, winds back to the SW and will average near 10kt this aftn. Light S winds tonight.

Outlook: High pressure remains centered S of the region Thursday, pushing off the Carolina coast into Thu night, bringing dry wx and VFR conditions. Winds remain SW at around 10 kt on Thu. The next chance for rain (and flight restrictions) will be Friday, then drying out Saturday. Another chance for rain Sunday.

MARINE
As of 420 AM EST Wednesday...

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered just west of the area. Winds were NW 10-20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-3 ft and seas were 3-5 ft.

High pressure slides across the coast later this morning, and then settles off the coast for this aftn and tonight. A SW wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt across the Bay/northern ocean this evening into very early Thu morning, with SW 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt elsewhere. Will likely issue SCAs for the Bay during this time period. High pressure lingers near the coast Thu into early Fri, then a weak low pressure system slides across the coast later Fri into Sat. Sub-SCA conditions are expected during this time period.

CLIMATE
As of 700 AM EST Wednesday...

* Record Low Temperatures for today/Wed 11/29:

* RIC: 10 (1930)
* ORF: 21 (1955)
* SBY: 10 (1930)
* ECG: 23 (1996) *actual low of 22F through 7am, sets a new record low*

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-634.

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Pocomoke City
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Wed -- 03:40 AM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:26 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:56 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:05 PM EST     1.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:56 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pocomoke City, Pocomoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

Salisbury
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Wed -- 01:16 AM EST     0.55 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:56 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:27 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:22 PM EST     0.80 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:51 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:11 PM EST     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:41 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current, knots

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