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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1233 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
This afternoon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 1233 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
low pressure will pass well south of the waters through tonight. A clipper system will cross the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will build over the region Thursday through Friday night. Small craft advisories are likely Wednesday into Thursday morning.

FXUS61 KLWX 041933 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A clipper system will cross the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
High pressure will build over the region Thursday through Friday night. A strong frontal system will likely impact the region late in the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A potent mid/upper-level shortwave will traverse the Mid- Atlantic through this evening bringing widespread mid and high cloud cover. The low levels are dry and winds are downsloping out of the west, so precipitation looks unlikely except perhaps for a spotty flurry or sprinkle over the Allegheny Front. High temperatures will range from the 30s over the higher terrain to the 50s east of I-81/south of I-70.

A few extra flurries or a snow shower or two can't be ruled out along and west of the Allegheny Front tonight, but south-of-west flow, shortwave ridging, and shallow moisture should cut down on anything more than a few flurries or perhaps patchy drizzle.
Further east, clouds will clear. Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A reinforcing shortwave trough will pivot from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. At the surface, a wave of low pressure will follow a similar course before redeveloping and strengthening well offshore. Lift associated with the nose of the trough/on the north side of the surface low has the potential to result in precipitation across much of the area Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, with the greatest focus along and west of the Allegheny Front where upslope enhancement will be a factor.

Given thermal profiles aloft and low-level thicknesses, it appears snow will be the main precipitation type near and above 1000 ft elevation. Below that, snowflakes may fall, but will likely have trouble sticking due to more marginal surface temperatures. Accumulating snow is most likely for (1) the higher elevations, (2) possibly over the north-central Shenandoah Valley where synoptic forcing may be maximized early Wednesday morning, and (3) perhaps over N MD/the E WV panhandle where surface temperatures could be a bit cooler even for valley locations. Snowfall amounts should generally be light - limited to a coating to an inch for most locations, but could be closer to 2 inches along the spine of the Blue Ridge/Catoctins, and as much as 3 to 5 inches along/west of the Allegheny Front (where there is a reasonable worst case of 6-7 inches above 2500 ft).

As the system shifts offshore, upslope precipitation will become less intense, but could persist at times into Thursday morning.
Further east, blustery and colder than normal weather prevails.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure over the eastern Tennessee Valley will move across the Carolinas and offshore into the western Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. A dry but chilly day in store for the region Thursday and continuing into Friday with highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s each afternoon. Friday afternoon should be a few degrees milder than Thursday.

Once the high is offshore on Saturday, an increased return flow will bring in milder air and more moisture to allow for our temperatures to reach and even exceed the 60 degree mark in most places. There is a chance that a few periods of light rain or drizzle could form along a developing warm front to our south Saturday afternoon and evening, but chances and confidence are low at this time.

By Sunday, a modest southerly flow will bring in more warmth and humidity ahead of a strong low pressure system and its associated cold front. Rain showers, moderate and perhaps gusty at times, are expected to develop west to east Sunday morning and continue through Sunday afternoon. Rain showers could taper and come to an end east of the Blue Ridge Sunday night, while additional upslope rain and snow showers develop over the Alleghenies and along the Blue Ridge.
Highs Sunday could make a run at 70 degrees, but only in places where there is ample morning sunshine. At this point, it looks like cloud cover could dominate and leave widespread temperatures in the 60s across the region.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. Mid and high level broken/overcast conditions are anticipated today with W/SW wind gusts to 15 kts possible. VFR stratocu is most likely to prevail through Wednesday night in W/NW flow as a clipper system moves through. Drops in CIGs/VSBYs are likely especially west of US-15 Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the clipper brings a round of showers, most likely in the form of snow for KMRB (with a mix possible elsewhere).

VFR conditions are expected Thursday through Friday night. Winds will be west around 5 knots on Thursday, but become mainly southerly around 10 knots with a few higher gusts late Thursday through Friday night.

MARINE
An enhancement to northerly winds is expected tonight over the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay as a disturbance pushes to the east. A clipper system will swing through Tuesday into Wednesday with 25-30 kt gusts likely in its wake out of the W/NW. Winds begin to taper a bit Wednesday night, especially over narrower waterways, but 20-25 kt gusts likely persist over the wider waters until at least daybreak Thursday.

No marine hazards are anticipated Thursday through Friday night. Winds will be west 5 to 10 knots Thursday, becoming southwest around 10 knots Thursday night through Friday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Light winds today allowed tidal anomalies to increase as water was able to push back up the bay. Northwest winds are expected to increase tonight over the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay as a disturbance pushes to the east. This should result in lowering of tidal anomalies. However, winds quickly taper off Tuesday afternoon, with a sloshback likely to occur, bringing tidal levels to near Action Stage mid week.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ001.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ503.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

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Fredericksburg
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Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:24 PM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:36 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:51 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

Massaponax
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Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:15 PM EST     2.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:36 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:07 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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