Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Girdletree, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:58PM Friday August 14, 2020 7:16 AM EDT (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:33AMMoonset 3:39PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 654 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms early this morning, then a chance of showers late this morning and afternoon. A chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers likely. Tstms likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 654 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Weak low pressure tracks off the coast today. High pressure builds northeast of the region tonight into Saturday. Another weak area of low pressure tracks across and off the coast Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Girdletree, MD
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location: 38.09, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 141056 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 656 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. A trough of low pressure across the area, will result in numerous showers and and thunderstorms through today. A cold front pushes south into Virginia Friday night, then stalls near the Virginia/North Carolina border over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 330 AM EDT Friday .

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue through today as low pressure drifts off the coast. Showers are already starting to increase in coverage early this morning, and expect to see activity to continue to increase as we head into the afternoon hours. It is possible that the highest focus for showers/storms may be more to the east of I-95 today as moisture wraps into the area on the west side of the low. Due to the very high forecast precipitable water values (2.0"+) maintained likely PoPs for a majority of the area this afternoon. Opted against a Flash Flood Watch for today as coverage may be a little more hit or miss and focused more to the east where there are higher flash flood guidance values. However, if any showers/storms develop across the urban areas (especially I-95 corridor/Richmond) they will need to be watched for flooding potential. Temperature- wise, expect highs generally in the mid 80s across the area.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EDT Friday .

Unsettled weather continues through this weekend. Another area of low pressure develops over the Great Lakes through TN Valley on today associated with a weak upper trough. This combined with the continued trough just south of the area will allow for another round of showers and storms during the day on Saturday into Saturday night. Again, with precipitable water values at or above 2 inches, the heavy rain potential will remain high. WPC currently has a majority of the area (minus the SE) in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Saturday (Day 2). Additional Flood Watches will likely be needed for at least a portion of the area Saturday-Saturday night due to the very saturated grounds and low FFG values. Another unsettled day on Sunday as the surface trough remains near the local area, locally heavy rainfall will once again be possible. Drier conditions are expected by Sunday night as the surface trough finally moves off the coast. Slightly cooler (but still muggy) this weekend due to the widespread rain/cloud cover. Have highs ranging from the upper 70s across the NW to the mid/upper 80s SE on both Saturday and Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 1250 PM EDT Thursday .

An upper trough axis digs into the Great Lakes and northeast early next week, then eventually elongates southward to the GOMEX by the middle of next week. Unfortunately, this means the unsettled pattern will stay with us through much of next week. Monday/Tuesday look to be the least active days (lowest PoPs for next week) with PoPs in the 25-40% range. They then ramp up again by the middle and end of next week. Am not expecting as much heavy rainfall potential as the precipitable water values will not be as high as they are now. Otherwise, temperatures should be seasonable with highs in the mid- upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 645 AM EDT Friday .

MVFR to IFR (ECG/RIC/SBY) ceilings to start the forecast period. Expect a gradual improvement in ceilings through this morning, becoming MVFR and VFR later this afternoon and evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage by this afternoon, with any heavier showers/storms having the potential to produce IFR visibilities. Rain chances decrease later this evening and overnight. MVFR to IFR ceilings will be possible once again early Saturday morning.

Outlook: Numerous showers/thunderstorms continue through Sunday as deep moisture continues to move along the surface trough/cold front. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible much of the weekend.

MARINE. As of 340 AM EDT Friday .

An area of low pressure is located off the nrn Outer Banks early this morning. The wind is generally E/NE 10-15kt north of the low, and N/NW 5-10kt on the wrn flank of the low. Seas are primarily 2-3ft, with waves in the Bay ~2ft. This area of low pressure will track ENE and move farther offshore today, with high pressure building across New England tonight into Saturday. The wind is expected to be NE 10-15kt for much of the area today and tonight, and N 5-10kt S of Cape Henry. Seas remain 2-3ft today, then build to 3-4ft N tonight, and waves in the Bay remain ~2ft. The pressure gradient tightens across the N Saturday with high pressure to the NE and low pressure approaching from the W. A NE wind has the potential to increase to 15-20kt for the ocean N of Parramore Is. and the Bay N of New Point Comfort. Seas potentially build to 4-5ft Saturday aftn N of Chincoteague. The pressure gradient slackens as the second low tracks across the coast Saturday night/early Sunday, and then tightens Sunday aftn/Sunday night with the wind becoming northerly 10-15kt. Seas area expected to build to 4-6ft Saturday night through Sunday into Sunday night, then gradually subside to 3- 4ft early next week. Weak high pressure is expected to build into the area by Monday and Tuesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . AJB/MRD NEAR TERM . AJB SHORT TERM . AJB/MRD LONG TERM . JDM AVIATION . AJB MARINE . AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 22 mi47 min NE 7 G 13 75°F 1014.5 hPa
44089 23 mi21 min 77°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 38 mi47 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 75°F 1012.9 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 43 mi27 min 3 ft

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA12 mi23 minN 610.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F73°F100%1013.1 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD19 mi23 minNNE 72.50 miRain Fog/Mist75°F72°F90%1014.2 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD20 mi24 minNE 86.00 miRain Fog/Mist75°F73°F94%1013.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWAL

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S8S6S6SE9SE9SE7SE7E8E11SE11SE9E5E7E8E10E5E6SE9E7E4NE6N5N6
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2 days agoS8SW7S10S12S14S11SW5S10S8S11S10S12S10S7S9S7SW6S3S3SW3S4S4S5S4

Tide / Current Tables for Assacorkin Island, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland
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Assacorkin Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:31 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:58 AM EDT     0.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:20 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.10.10.20.30.30.40.40.40.30.20.20.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.50.50.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:23 AM EDT     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:35 AM EDT     0.24 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:03 PM EDT     0.51 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.2-00.10.20.20.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.30.50.50.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.