Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Girdletree, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday.

2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week.

3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10".

DISCUSSION
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures prevail through Thursday.

Surface high pressure has settled well offshore of the Carolina coast, with strong upper ridging situated from the Gulf coast to Southeast CONUS. High pressure will build into the western Atlantic during the next day or so. The resulting persistent return flow will lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime through Thursday. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for record to near record high temperatures through Thursday. The primary difference from summer will be MUCH lower dew pts which will keep apparent temperatures at or below actual air temperatures, which is far more comfortable than typical summertime conditions. As of mid aftn, temperatures are primarily ranging through the mid to upper 80s with dew pts in the 50s and corresponding apparent T values in the 80s. Some places will likely reach ~90F for highs which would challenge daily records. Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 60s for most, with highs Wed-Thu a few degrees above today's values (into the low-mid 90s) given increasing 925-850 mb temperatures and continued deep mixing. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on the eastern shore. The current records at our long- term climate sites noted in the climate section below.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected for much of the week.

With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable precipitation expected through the end of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the rest of the week. After collaboration with VA State Forestry, have issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of VA where aftn gusts to around 20 mph are co-located with min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs around 90F. This generally includes all of central and east central. Similar conditions are likely Wed-Thu with minimum RH values averaging 25-30% inland and 30-35% closer to the coast through Thursday, keeping fire wx conditions around critical fire wx thresholds through much of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but it does not look at all like a widespread soaking rain. Many areas likely see less than 0.10".

Slightly cooler mid 80s to around 90F on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only isolated showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave (mainly confined to the far N). Rain amounts will likely be a few hundredths of an inch at best, and most areas will stay dry (latest 12Z models are drier than last night's 00Z runs as well). Very warm/hot and dry (lower 90s inland) for Saturday as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain are 40-60% across the NE 1/2 of the area, and even lower for interior NE NC and south central VA. Cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70F and lows down into the upper 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period. Aftn winds will be SW at 10-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, then 5-10 kt overnight.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic.

MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

-Generally sub-SCA through the end of the week with a brief surge in winds Thurs night

-Stronger, more prolonged SCA conditions possible late in the weekend into early next week.

High pressure anchored offshore and ridging in over the east coast will remain more or less in place for the next few days. Benign marine conditions prevail today and through the rest of the mid week period. SW-S winds will stay at 10-15kt through at least Thurs evening. Daytime heating and mixing will lead to winds becoming gustier over land, so nearshore waters will also be gusty during the day with gusts up to 20kt. Seas will stay around 3ft during this time period with waves in the bay/rivers at 1-2ft.

A weak cold front moves in over the waters Thurs night into Friday.
Pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead of it, resulting in a brief bump up in the winds overnight. Expecting winds to pick up to 15-20kt with highest winds over the open ocean. Seas will build to 4ft and perhaps 5ft out near 20nm. Cannot rule out a brief SCA Thurs night, but confidence is low given the unimpressive front and marginal conditions that are forecast. And on that note, not expecting a post-frontal surge either. Looking ahead to the weekend, forecasting benign conditions Friday and Saturday. A stronger front is expected Sunday that may bring strong SCA conditions.

CLIMATE
Record High Temps for 4/14 - 4/18

Record Record Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ ------ Richmond 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976)
Norfolk 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896)
Salisbury 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976)
Eliz. City 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941)

Record High Min Temps for 4/14 - 4/18

Record Record Record Record Record High High High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002)
Norfolk 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002)
Salisbury 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918)
Eliz. City 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>085-087>090-509>522.
MARINE...None.