Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cuba, MO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:01PM Saturday August 15, 2020 2:06 AM CDT (07:06 UTC) Moonrise 1:27AMMoonset 4:43PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cuba, MO
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location: 38.09, -91.42     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 150524 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 909 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

The mid-level trough and associated vorticity maxima have finally bid farewell to the bi-state area. With the last of stubborn showers in south-central Illinois ending, no change to the clear, dry forecast overnight. Fog should develop again overnight, but will be more limited in coverage and magnitude.

Some uncertainty still exists with the cold front passage Saturday morning, starting in northeastern Missouri. Latest CAMs remain unimpressed with convergence and forcing along the front. Another strike against morning convection is the limited instability during that time. Uncertainty still remains with coverage of storms for the rest of the CWA, but it is possible for instability from daytime heating to enhance the weak convergence along the front and assist storm initiation. CAMs seem to hint at this, which would make sense given the air downstream should have enough time to heat up with very limited cloud cover. Despite slight changes to the areal extent of the activity, isolated to widely-scattered thunderstorms remain possible tomorrow afternoon in eastern/central Missouri and southwestern Illinois. The chance of thunderstorms has also been extended from the last update for a few more hours across the eastern CWA Saturday evening.

MRB

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Saturday Night) Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

A stationary front draped from the eastern Dakotas into Kentucky continues to linger across the CWA. It's parent surface low also currently resides over the eastern Dakotas and will be the driver of much of the sensible weather over the next 36 hours. Driven by a mid- level trough along the US-Canada border, the surface low will retreat north-northeastward overnight into central southern Canada. The movement of the low will begin to drag a surface cold front into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Ahead of the front, skies will clear with the loss of daytime heating and combined with light winds, will create favorable conditions for patchy fog development again tonight. A lack of rain today has left conditions less moist than yesterday, and I expect fog development early tomorrow morning to be less widespread than this morning.

By early tomorrow morning the cold front will be knocking on the door to the northern CWA. Operational guidance indicates that deep moisture convergence will be weak along the front as it moves through the region. Even though the SREF guidance indicates 1000- 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE will be available across much of the area ahead of the front, the weak lift points to limited storm coverage. Convergence will be strongest along the front early in the morning and so showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of and along the front as it moves southeastward through northeastern Missouri and far west-central Illinois. Guidance indicates the front will continue to weaken across our area as the surface low pushes north- northeastward into central Canada. Daytime heating may be able to enhance lift along the front, so have increased PoPs to chance during peak heating as the front moves through east-central Missouri and west-central and southwest Illinois. By Saturday evening the cold front will have made its way through the area, leaving northwesterly flows in its wake.

Northwesterly flow at the surface and the low levels behind the front will help usher in slightly below normal temperatures. Where the cold front passes earlier in the day on Saturday, high temperatures will be in the low 80s and cooler than areas to the south.

MRM

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Behind Saturday's cold front a low and mid-level ridge will build into the region, shifting our sensible weather into a cooler and dryer pattern. A shortwave trough will propagate through the mid- level ridge Sunday afternoon, reinforcing the cooler air behind the front. Temperatures on Sunday will be 3-5 degrees cooler than on Friday or Saturday. A second shortwave trough will move through the mid-level northwesterly flow Monday to bring another shot of cooler air to the region. This will result in temperatures 2-4 degrees cooler on Tuesday than Sunday with highs near 80 degrees. While Tuesday looks to be the coolest day of the period, below normal temperatures will continue through the end of next week. The CIPS Analogs from St. Louis University and the NAEFS and ECWMF guidance indicate a shift away from these below normal temperatures by the start of the last week in August.

Largely dry weather is expected through the end of the period under the influence of the high pressure system over the Central Plains and mid-Mississippi River Valley. While disturbances rippling along the mid-level ridge are expected to stay out of our area, if one does traverse the CWA, I cannot rule out a stray shower.

MRM

AVIATION. (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Radiation fog is expected to develop at KCOU, KSUS, and KCPS. Visibilities should be mostly MVFR, but a brief period of IFR looks more likely than not at KSUS and KCPS due to their proximity to adjacent rivers. Fog that forms should not linger at the terminals long after sunrise.

Isolated thunderstorms associated with a weak cold front moving southeast through the area tomorrow have the potential to impact each of the terminals. KUIN has the greatest chance of a thunderstorm impacting it between 13Z-15Z, but significant categorical changes are unlikely. KCOU also may be impacted in this timeframe, but probabilities of a storm approaching the terminal remain low. For this reason, VCTS has been omitted from KCOU's TAF.

The St. Louis metro terminals also have a window of possible thunderstorm development in the afternoon, but confidence in the extent of the storms is not high enough to warrant mention in the TAFs. After the threat for storms has diminished after sunset, VFR conditions should prevail through the duration of the period.

MRB/Gosselin

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rolla / Vichy, Rolla National Airport, MO19 mi74 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist69°F66°F93%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVIH

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Last 24hrE3E5E4E4E6SE5E3E33E8E44CalmE6E5NE5NE5CalmCalmE4CalmE3CalmS4
1 day agoSE6E6E6NW4CalmSW4E53E5E6E8E9E6E9E7E8E7E5E4E5E5E6E5E6
2 days agoS3S3CalmS4S3NW4--SW4S56SE5SE6SE7SE5E6SE7SE6SE6E4E3E5SE5SE6SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.