Marine Weather and Tides
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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|Sunrise 6:24AM||Sunset 7:56PM||Monday August 19, 2019 9:44 PM CDT (02:44 UTC)||Moonrise 9:19PM||Moonset 9:02AM||Illumination 80%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cuba, MOHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 klsx 192247|
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
547 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019
Short term (through late Tuesday night)
issued at 325 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019
early this afternoon, the center of an upper ridge was located over
the southern high plains with weak NW flow aloft over our region.
At the surface, a weak frontal boundary existed across northern mo
and into central il. Surface convergence is so weak along this
front that it is struggling to result in any enhanced cumulus--in
fact, no more than any other area, with the ozarks being more
successful at a bit more convergence to result in scattered
thunderstorm development there. A few isolated cells were also
present in southern il near the i-70 corridor. Temperatures ranged
from the upper 80s to mid 90s, with the highest values in the stl
metro area where heat index values have exceeded 105 in many
locations. Elsewhere, heat index values ranged from 100-104.
The upper ridge is expected to maintain its position and strength
through tonight as the weak surface front stalls into northeast mo
and southern il. Further upstream, most model guidance continues to
advertise the development of a MCS in western ia later tonight with
the flow and surface frontal position then steering this complex
southeastward overnight. There is a general consensus that this
complex will remain north of the forecast area through 12z tue.
Otherwise, expect the convection in southeast mo and southern il to
weaken and dissipate early this evening, leaving behind clear skies
for much of the night, but look for convective cloudiness to be on
the increase from the northwest towards daybreak. Min temps tonight
should be about 3-5f higher than persistence thanks to the presence
of high dewpoints lingering that just aren't going anywhere, with
readings bottoming out in the 70s.
No real change on the upper ridge again during the day on Tuesday
with the anticipated MCS in iowa expected to continue its
southeastward track primarily through illinois, but it should have
enough of a southwest tail on it thanks to the veering low level
jet to result in many areas into eastern mo to justify likely pops.
The timing on this is expected to be from 8am-2pm. Plenty of
instability and environmental bulk shear for this complex to tap
into, even in the morning, for severe storms to be an issue, with
both large hail and damaging winds to be a concern. The rain and
timing of it should also make attaining dangerous heat humidity
levels very difficult, but if it happens anywhere, it will be in
central and southeast mo along the far western periphery.
Confidence is not high enough to issue any heat headlines yet and
current forecast has 100-103 anyway. Temperatures in most areas
will struggle to exit the 80s thanks to the clouds and rain, with
even the current forecast too warm in spots if the rain fully
verifies. In the wake of the mcs, it is expected it will be very
difficult for any new development of precipitation thanks to the
The upper ridge finally starts to break down Tuesday night. The old
surface frontal boundary is expected to have washed out early in the
period with a new cold front not expected to make much in-roads
until late. High dewpoints are expected to linger for a muggy night
with min temps again in the 70s, similar to the previous night. Any|
rain chances should be in northern mo and central il near the front.
Long term (Wednesday through next Monday)
issued at 325 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019
the surface cold front is expected to move slowly through our region
on Wednesday and be just south of our area on Thursday, resulting in
what should be high pops for this period thanks to very rich
moisture through the column. In addition, high instability present
on Wednesday afternoon could result in another round of severe
storms. The timing of the front and how fast it produces storms on
Wednesday will be key, because a slower movement onset also could
result in another day of concern for dangerous heat humidity.
Currently we have peak index values between 100-103 for many areas.
Heading later into the week and into the weekend, surface high
pressure is expected to nose into our area enough with its cool and
dry easterly flow to minimize rain chances while keeping
temperatures below normal, with highs for Friday through Sunday in
the upper 70s to lower 80s most areas.
Only on next Monday is there significant divergence on the upper
pattern, with some models showing the upper ridge expanding back
into our area, while others keep us more under the influence of a
trof from the northern plains instead. Temperatures should return
to more normal values in the mid to upper 80s thanks to southerly
flow returning, along with rain chances.
Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 539 pm cdt Mon aug 19 2019
this afternoon's scattered storms should end within the next few
hours. Aviation concerns beyond that are twofold. First is the
potential for fog in the early morning hours. With high
dewpoints, light winds, and clear skies expected for much of the
area in the early morning hours, the table appears to be set for
at least patchy fog.
The other primary concern is due to a line of strong storms
expected to push through western and central il in the late
morning hours. Storms seem quite likely at uin, with the stl metro
terminals on the fringes of the highest precip chances. That
said, storms may be decaying by the time they reach uin and i'm
not sure just how poor flight conditions will get. While i've
stuck withVFR at uin for tomorrow's storms, it's possible
conditions drop to at least MVFR as the storms pass. The same
could be said for the metro tafs, though again, storm chances are
a bit lower over those areas.
Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... Heat advisory until 8 pm cdt this evening for saint charles mo-
saint louis city mo-saint louis mo.
Il... Heat advisory until 8 pm cdt this evening for madison il-saint
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|Rolla / Vichy, Rolla National Airport, MO||19 mi||1.9 hrs||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||85°F||75°F||75%||1014.3 hPa|
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|2 days ago||SE||SE||SE||S||SE||S||S||SW||S||SW||NW||Calm||S||S||S||S||S||SW||SW||S||S||Calm||SE||SE |
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