UPDATE
Issued at 844 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Satellite imagery shows stratus building into the North Bay valleys, the northern San Francisco Bay, the Monterey Bay region, and into the Salinas Valley. Expect further stratus development through the night with the Fort Ord profiler now showing a marine layer over 2000 feet deep. Stratus will pare back to the coastal regions during the morning, but could persist all day in the western half of marin County, the northern San Francisco Bay (including the city of San Francisco and Oakland), and the southern Monterey Bay. The forecast remains on track with no updates necessary.

DialH

SHORT TERM
(This evening through tonight)
Issued at 1254 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Temperatures look to peak in the mid-to-upper 90's across the far interior, 70's and 80's around the South Bay and North Bay valleys, and upper 50's to 60's near the coast this afternoon. Tonight, expecting more widespread low clouds, fog, and coastal drizzle to impact the region as the marine layer deepens. This is in response to a mid/upper level trough moving across the region. Minimum temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 40's across the colder interior spots with 50's elsewhere.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Temperatures continue to cool Saturday and Sunday with widespread 70s to 80s expected inland and 60s to 70s expected closer to the coast. Upper level troughing will continue to deepen over the weekend which will help to keep temperatures cooler and contribute to some slight potential for light drizzle. Overnight Friday into Saturday and Saturday into Sunday, decent low level moisture at 850mb and 700mb will support the development of light drizzle to light rain along the coast and in areas where upslope ascent is favored. Both the NBM and the HRRR pick up on light coastal drizzle overnight this weekend with some potential for light showers over the marine environment. The NBM is showing very light precipitation totals along the coast and bay shoreline with totals ranging from a trace to a few hundredths of an inch.

The upper level pattern will become more zonal by early next week which will allow for temperatures to warm slightly. In general, temperatures are expected to gradually increase a few degrees each day beginning Monday but high temperatures will still remain below average through mid-week. By mid to late next week, a little more uncertainty enters the forecast in regards to how fast high temperatures will warm up again. Ensemble guidance indicates ridging will start to build over the Western US by mid to late next week but cluster analysis indicates that it is less certain where exactly the ridge will set up. Temperatures could be slightly warmer depending on if the ridge is centered more directly over the West Coast vs temperatures could be slightly cooler if the ridge is centered to the east of the coast. Regardless, it is looking likely that above average temperatures will return with the current forecast and the CPC 8-14 day outlook both in support of slightly above average temperatures returning by the first week of August.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

LIFR/IFR CIGS are affecting the immediate coast and will fill over the Monterey Bay and SF Bay terminals later this evening as winds reduce. CIGs continue to move inland overnight, affecting the remainder of the TAF sites. Winds are expected to stay light to moderate overnight, with some pockets of mist and fog forming in areas with the lightest winds. CIGs erode in the more inland areas in the mid morning, while the Monterey Bay sees clearing in the afternoon, however cloud cover looks to remain over the SF Bay for the remainder of the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Breezy winds reduce in the evening as IFR CIGs arrive. Expect these CIGs and moderate winds through the night and into Saturday morning. CIGS lift to MVFR levels into Saturday afternoon as breezy westerly winds arrive. CIGs are expected through the rest of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO, with some chances of spotty IFR-level cloud cover early Tuesday morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR/IFR CIGs and mist push inland this evening and last until the late morning before lifting, and eroding into the afternoon as breezy winds arrive. CIGs move inland again in the late afternoon on Saturday, Filling over MRY.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 844 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Moderate to breezy Northwest winds linger through the weekend before easing into the next work week. Expect some hazardous gusts in the northern outer waters as well as along the Big Sur Coast.
Significant wave heights will continue to abate through the weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.