Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montross, VA
May 4, 2024 4:37 AM EDT (08:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:04 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:07 AM Moonset 3:10 PM |
ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 136 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
Overnight - E winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain with areas of drizzle. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain likely.
Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 136 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through Saturday night before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday and Sunday night.
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through Saturday night before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday and Sunday night.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 040733 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 333 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
-Dreary conditions across the entire forecast area today with extensive low-level cloud cover and scattered showers.
Yesterday's backdoor cold front is situated just south of the FA early this morning. High pressure over New England is wedging cool, moist air into the Mid-Atlantic. With the front projected to stay S of the area today, expect a dreary Saturday. Latest radar shows scattered showers, primarily W of I-95. Chances for showers will continue through the day, but with the best forcing/lift and moisture remaining to the W, the highest coverage will continue to be over the piedmont. Closer to the coast, low level moisture from onshore flow will allow for patchy drizzle to continue through the morning. Minimal thunder is expected today, but could have a few rumbles in SW counties this evening. Easterly winds will be breezy E of I-95, especially near the coast, with gusts of 15-25mph.
Temps today will be cool across far northern portions of the FA. Highs will struggle to even reach 60F. Far southern portions will likely see a few breaks in the clouds and winds will have a slight southerly component, allowing for warmer temps in the mid 70s. The gradient between these warmer temps and the rest of the FA will likely be sharp, so expect most will see cooler highs in the 60s.
Showers in the far western counties increase in coverage overnight with lower end chances extending E to the coast. The front will start to move back N overnight, leading to stable if not slightly increasing temps late tonight/early Sunday. Lows will be in the low- mid 50s across the N and low 60s in the S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.
- More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide.
The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s (and maybe as high as 80) and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s.
Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours.
Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Mean LREF CAPE shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer.
Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...
Key messages:
-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above- normal temps.
-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.
An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over through the end of the week. A ridge aloft builds in Tuesday, then weakens slightly starting Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass on Thursday ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e.
cold front) will then cross the area late in the week. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid- level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. Highs on Tues will be in the upper 70s on the Eastern Shore and low 80s W of the bay. Well-above normal temps on Wed/Thurs with the potential for widespread 90 degree highs. Fri looks a bit cooler, but still in the 80s for most. Lows generally in the mid-60s.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 145 AM EDT Saturday...
Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the 06z/04 TAF period as IFR to LIFR CIGs have already overspread the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through much of the night with perhaps some improvement on Sat (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore flow. In terms of precipitation, scattered showers have spread over western portions of the area, and Richmond will likely see brief periods of light rain. Areas of drizzle are also possible through Sat AM. Shower chances continue on Saturday (highest PoPs at RIC w/ lesser chances near the coast).
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
As of 710 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been extended for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through Saturday night.
- Small Craft Advisories for the seas north of the Virginia/North Carolina border have been extended until 1 AM Saturday.
- Winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will diminish a bit later tonight into Saturday morning before increasing Saturday.
Winds behind the backdoor cold front remain 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening (lower across the NC coastal waters).
Winds diminish some overnight but should still gust to 20 kt through the night. Winds ramp back up Sat afternoon into Sat night with gusts to 25 kt. Winds become ESE late Sat night as a warm front lifts N. Waves remain 2-4 ft during this time.
Given the gusts to 20 kt between the two surges, have opted to extend SCAs through Sat night to account for both surges for the Ches Bay and Lower James. Additionally, with seas of 4-6 ft this evening N of the VA/NC border and persistent E flow, seas should be slow to subside to 4 ft tonight. As such, have extended SCAs for all coastal waters N of the VA/NC border until 1 AM Sat.
The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE.
SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 905 PM EDT Friday...
Have maintained a Coastal Flood Statement for locations in the upper Bay as tides increase and stay just shy of minor flood stage overnight. Tidal anomalies continue to increase this weekend with minor to locally moderate flooding (at Bishops Head) possible across the middle and upper bay due prolonged onshore flow. Nuisance to minor flooding is possible up the James River as well Sat evening. Will likely need to upgrade the Coastal Flood Statement to a Coastal Flood Advisory across parts of the upper Bay for the Sat afternoon high tide. However, given that the upcoming high tide stays just below, will hold off for now.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654- 656.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 333 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
-Dreary conditions across the entire forecast area today with extensive low-level cloud cover and scattered showers.
Yesterday's backdoor cold front is situated just south of the FA early this morning. High pressure over New England is wedging cool, moist air into the Mid-Atlantic. With the front projected to stay S of the area today, expect a dreary Saturday. Latest radar shows scattered showers, primarily W of I-95. Chances for showers will continue through the day, but with the best forcing/lift and moisture remaining to the W, the highest coverage will continue to be over the piedmont. Closer to the coast, low level moisture from onshore flow will allow for patchy drizzle to continue through the morning. Minimal thunder is expected today, but could have a few rumbles in SW counties this evening. Easterly winds will be breezy E of I-95, especially near the coast, with gusts of 15-25mph.
Temps today will be cool across far northern portions of the FA. Highs will struggle to even reach 60F. Far southern portions will likely see a few breaks in the clouds and winds will have a slight southerly component, allowing for warmer temps in the mid 70s. The gradient between these warmer temps and the rest of the FA will likely be sharp, so expect most will see cooler highs in the 60s.
Showers in the far western counties increase in coverage overnight with lower end chances extending E to the coast. The front will start to move back N overnight, leading to stable if not slightly increasing temps late tonight/early Sunday. Lows will be in the low- mid 50s across the N and low 60s in the S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.
- More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide.
The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s (and maybe as high as 80) and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s.
Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours.
Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Mean LREF CAPE shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer.
Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...
Key messages:
-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above- normal temps.
-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.
An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over through the end of the week. A ridge aloft builds in Tuesday, then weakens slightly starting Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass on Thursday ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e.
cold front) will then cross the area late in the week. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid- level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. Highs on Tues will be in the upper 70s on the Eastern Shore and low 80s W of the bay. Well-above normal temps on Wed/Thurs with the potential for widespread 90 degree highs. Fri looks a bit cooler, but still in the 80s for most. Lows generally in the mid-60s.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 145 AM EDT Saturday...
Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the 06z/04 TAF period as IFR to LIFR CIGs have already overspread the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through much of the night with perhaps some improvement on Sat (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore flow. In terms of precipitation, scattered showers have spread over western portions of the area, and Richmond will likely see brief periods of light rain. Areas of drizzle are also possible through Sat AM. Shower chances continue on Saturday (highest PoPs at RIC w/ lesser chances near the coast).
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
As of 710 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories have been extended for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through Saturday night.
- Small Craft Advisories for the seas north of the Virginia/North Carolina border have been extended until 1 AM Saturday.
- Winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will diminish a bit later tonight into Saturday morning before increasing Saturday.
Winds behind the backdoor cold front remain 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening (lower across the NC coastal waters).
Winds diminish some overnight but should still gust to 20 kt through the night. Winds ramp back up Sat afternoon into Sat night with gusts to 25 kt. Winds become ESE late Sat night as a warm front lifts N. Waves remain 2-4 ft during this time.
Given the gusts to 20 kt between the two surges, have opted to extend SCAs through Sat night to account for both surges for the Ches Bay and Lower James. Additionally, with seas of 4-6 ft this evening N of the VA/NC border and persistent E flow, seas should be slow to subside to 4 ft tonight. As such, have extended SCAs for all coastal waters N of the VA/NC border until 1 AM Sat.
The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE.
SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 905 PM EDT Friday...
Have maintained a Coastal Flood Statement for locations in the upper Bay as tides increase and stay just shy of minor flood stage overnight. Tidal anomalies continue to increase this weekend with minor to locally moderate flooding (at Bishops Head) possible across the middle and upper bay due prolonged onshore flow. Nuisance to minor flooding is possible up the James River as well Sat evening. Will likely need to upgrade the Coastal Flood Statement to a Coastal Flood Advisory across parts of the upper Bay for the Sat afternoon high tide. However, given that the upcoming high tide stays just below, will hold off for now.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654- 656.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 11 mi | 50 min | E 7G | |||||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 16 mi | 50 min | ENE 8G | 67°F | 30.17 | |||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 21 mi | 38 min | ENE 16G | 52°F | 64°F | 1 ft | ||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 21 mi | 50 min | NNE 7G | 66°F | 30.18 | |||
| NCDV2 | 22 mi | 50 min | ENE 2.9G | 69°F | 30.14 | |||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 28 mi | 50 min | NNW 11G | 30.19 | ||||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 36 mi | 38 min | ENE 14G | 49°F | 64°F | 1 ft | ||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 38 mi | 50 min | ENE 9.9G | 68°F | 30.17 | |||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 45 mi | 38 min | ENE 14G | 55°F | 64°F | 2 ft | ||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 47 mi | 68 min | E 4.1 | 53°F | 30.18 | 50°F | ||
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 47 mi | 68 min | NE 1.9 | 56°F | 30.15 | 54°F | ||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 48 mi | 50 min | E 9.9G | 66°F | 30.20 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNUI WEBSTER NOLF,MD | 16 sm | 44 min | NE 03 | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 54°F | 54°F | 100% | 30.17 |
| KXSA TAPPAHANNOCKESSEX COUNTY,VA | 19 sm | 22 min | ENE 05 | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 54°F | 54°F | 100% | 30.16 |
| KNHK PATUXENT RIVER NAS/TRAPNELL FIELD/,MD | 21 sm | 22 min | NE 10 | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 55°F | 52°F | 88% | 30.18 |
Mount Holly
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:08 AM EDT 1.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:07 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:34 PM EDT 1.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 06:54 PM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:08 AM EDT 1.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:07 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:34 PM EDT 1.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 06:54 PM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.8 |
| 1 am |
| 1.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1.4 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.5 |
Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true
Sat -- 02:57 AM EDT -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:48 AM EDT 0.37 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:02 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:08 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 06:49 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:11 PM EDT 0.62 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true
Sat -- 02:57 AM EDT -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:48 AM EDT 0.37 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:02 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:08 PM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 06:49 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:11 PM EDT 0.62 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.3 |
| 1 am |
| -0.5 |
| 2 am |
| -0.7 |
| 3 am |
| -0.8 |
| 4 am |
| -0.7 |
| 5 am |
| -0.5 |
| 6 am |
| -0.3 |
| 7 am |
| -0 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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