Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:56PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 12:33 PM EST (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:01PMMoonset 5:16AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 939 Am Est Wed Feb 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of today..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming N 5 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely through the day, then a chance of rain through the night.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
ANZ500 939 Am Est Wed Feb 24 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore today with a cold front passing through tonight. High pressure will return for Thursday into Friday, but low pressure may impact the waters later Friday into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters tongiht into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 241155 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 655 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure slides off the coast through this evening. Dry and warmer weather conditions are expected today. A mainly dry cold front crosses the area Thursday morning. A series of weak systems will bring unsettled weather back into the region over the upcoming weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 650 AM EST Wednesday .

Early morning analysis reveals sfc ridge centered along/just off the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast at sunrise. To the west, low pressure was analyzed over Lake Michigan, with the attendant sfc front extending back into the mid and lower Missouri Valley. Aloft, a strong . though dampening . shortwave is dropping across the plains states toward the Great Lakes region. It is this feature that will drive the next frontal system across the local area late tonight.

Regional SAT imagery showing a weak mid- level disturbance out ahead of the front pushing across the TN Valley toward the southern Appalachians early this morning. This is yielding some mid to high clouds spilling across mountains toward the local area. Temperatures at sunrise are largely in the upper 20s to low 30s early this morning.

Sfc ridge will push farther out to sea through this evening. Resultant developing SSW flow will bring a stellar late winter day to the local area with above normal temperatures again expected. A persistence-based forecast was used for the forecast today, yielding upper 50s to lower 60s over the eastern shore, to the mid 60s to low 70s west of the Bay. Not quite as windy as yesterday . but still quite breezy nonetheless by late morning into the afternoon. W-SW gusts of 20-30 mph expected from mid-morning through the afternoon.

Previously referenced northern stream shortwave will drive a dry, weakening cool front across the area late tonight. Due to quasi-zonal upper flow, the front will slow/weaken as it drops across the area into Thursday. This will result in some increasing mid clouds late tonight, but otherwise remaining dry and not quite as cold tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30s NW to upper 40s SE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 325 AM EST Wednesday .

Thursday will see the weakening, dry cold front drop across the local area in the morning, with cooler, weaker high pressure building into and over the area. This high pressure cell is of Pacific origin, and as a result, temperatures only really drop back toward climo normal, w/highs in the upper 40s to low 50s expected along the coast, mid to upper 50s well inland, under a partly to mostly sunny sky.

A stronger and cool high pressure area then settles from the OH Valley east to off the New England coast late Thu night through Fri. Dry wx continues Thu night with mostly clear/partly cloudy north, and becoming mostly cloudy over the south, as the front lingers across the Carolinas. Lows will range through the 30s.

Guidance has largely trended milder and drier for Friday, with overrunning moisture along the stalled front to the south over GA into the Carolinas. Have therefore nudged PoPs down a bit until Friday night. Partly sunny N/Mostly cloudy S on Fri, and becoming overcast by aftn far S-SW. Slight to low end chance of aftn showers moving in from the SSW Fri aftn into Fri evening south of US-460 in advance of a warm front. Highs on Fri will range from the mid 40s to around 50.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 330 AM EST Wednesday .

Overall, 00z/24 models still in general agreement in bringing unsettled weather to our local area from Fri night through at least Mon, as (at least) a couple waves of low pressure and associated fronts move into and across the area. Given the persistent W-SW flow and no supply of markedly colder air, these systems and associated moisture will be mainly rain showers, though some mixed pcpn will be possible at the outset far N-NW tier of counties late Fri night into Sat morning. Periods of rain will affect the region Fri night through much of Sat, then after a bit of a lull late Sat . Sun morning through most of Mon. At this point, it looks like dry wx will return on Tue.

Highs will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, through the 50s Sun, in the lower 50s to lower 60s Mon, and in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tue. Lows will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s Fri night, range through the 40s Sat night and Sun night, and in the mid 30s to mid 40s Mon night.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 650 AM EST Wednesday .

VFR conditions across area terminals this morning will prevail through the 12z TAF period, as sfc high pressure builds over the area then slides off the coast through Wednesday afternoon. Expect light winds initially, with S-SW winds increasing to 10-15 kt during the late morning and afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 kt likely. SCT high clouds AOA 15kft AGL later this morning, clearing by aftn.

OUTLOOK . The next (mainly dry) cold front will cross the area Thu morning, with VFR conditions persisting. The next opportunity for deteriorated flight conditions won't come until late Fri night into Sat. A brief return to VFR is possible on Sunday, with a subsequent period of sub-VFR CIGs looking likely Sun night and Monday.

MARINE. As of 325 AM EST Wednesday .

Early this morning, high pressure is centered over the waters leading to generally light and variable winds. High pressure will slide further off the coast later this morning and afternoon as an area of low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region. Seas are generally 2 to 3 feet, while waves in the Bay are around 1 foot.

The pressure gradient increases later this morning into this afternoon as the high slides off the coast and a cold front approaches from the NW. S to SW winds will generally range from 10 to 15 knots through this afternoon. Winds increase further this evening into tonight ahead of the front. Winds will likely approach Small Craft Advisory criteria across portions of the Chesapeake Bay later this evening, but due to the overall marginal nature of the event (SW winds over cold waters) opted to not hoist any headlines at this time. Did however hoist a SCA for the far northern coastal waters starting at 00z due to the potential for gusts to 25 knots (mainly out 20 nm) and seas approaching 5 feet. The front slides south during the early morning hours Thursday, with winds become NW in its wake. NW winds may briefly approach SCA criteria Thursday morning across the Chesapeake Bay before diminishing Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds back into the region later Thursday into Friday leading to sub-SCA conditions. Another area of low pressure impacts the region over the weekend.

HYDROLOGY. As of 655 AM EST Wednesday .

Flood warnings continue for the following rivers:

Nottoway near Sebrell Blackwater above Franklin

Currently, minor river flooding is occurring along the Blackwater above Franklin and the Nottoway near Sebrell. See water.weather.gov for more site specific information.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . TMG NEAR TERM . MAM SHORT TERM . MAM/TMG LONG TERM . MAM/TMG AVIATION . ERI/MAM MARINE . AJB HYDROLOGY .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi46 min SSE 13 G 15
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi46 min S 9.9 G 13 53°F 37°F1019.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi34 min SSE 14 G 16 45°F 38°F1020.1 hPa (-0.4)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi46 min SSE 11 G 16 50°F 38°F1019.2 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi52 min E 4.1 G 6 46°F 38°F1019 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi46 min SSE 15 G 16 42°F 1019.9 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi58 min S 12 G 14 41°F 37°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi46 min S 8 G 8.9 44°F 40°F1019.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi64 min SW 11 51°F 1018 hPa37°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi64 min SE 4.1 58°F 1021 hPa35°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi46 min S 9.9 G 13 54°F 36°F1019 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi41 minSSE 10 G 1910.00 miFair56°F35°F46%1019.3 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi39 minS 610.00 miFair54°F32°F44%1020 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi39 minSSE 10 G 1810.00 miFair59°F31°F35%1020 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi42 minSE 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy53°F33°F47%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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W11W9W7W6W4NW6W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmE3CalmSE4SE7SE7SE8SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:32 AM EST     1.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:15 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:25 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:42 PM EST     1.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:55 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:21 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.31.10.80.50.20.10.10.30.611.31.51.51.41.10.70.40.20.10.10.30.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Wed -- 02:45 AM EST     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:15 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:15 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:58 AM EST     0.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:54 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:58 PM EST     -0.95 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:33 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:54 PM EST     0.28 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:54 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.50.60.50.3-0-0.4-0.7-0.9-1-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.20.20.30.2

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