Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:48PM Saturday December 14, 2019 2:24 AM EST (07:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:21PMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1238 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Overnight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ500 1238 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move northward into the region tonight before moving off to the northeast Saturday. High pressure will briefly build overhead for Sunday before low pressure impacts the area Monday. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday through Sunday morning, and again on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 140557 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1257 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will lift northeast from the Gulf coast through tonight, then track northeast along the eastern seaboard on Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday before the next system impacts the region Monday night and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 955 PM EST Friday .

Surface analysis shows a deepening surface low off the Carolina coast with a coastal trough extending NE from the low center. Light to occasionally moderate rain is ongoing across the region this evening with some less intense radar echoes noted to the southwest of the local area over NC. Rainfall has largely kept fog formation at bay but visibilities will have to be watched closely overnight as precip tapers off. Forecast is largely on track and only minor adjustments to the grids were required.

Previous Discussion:

Latest sfc analysis depicts a coastal trough/stationary front extending north from FL along the mid-Atlantic coast to Long Island. Sfc low pressure was developing along the front over NE FL. The center of sfc high pressure is well off the New England coast but extends SW down the spine of the Appalachians with an in- situ wedge setup locally. Rain will remain widespread across the region the rest of today with heavier/steadier rain expected tonight (at least thru early Sat morning) as the sfc low lifts NE along the coastal trough. Have high end likely/categorical PoPs all areas thru 09z Sat. The rain and abundant cloud cover today has really locked the cold air in place from about the I-95 corridor on west where temps are mainly in the mid 30s to mid 40s as of 3 pm. Meanwhile, temps closer to the coast have reached the 50s. As WAA continues tonight, expect temps to continue to rise along/west of I-95 while remaining steady east. Low temps for the night across the Piedmont/I-95 corridor should actually occur late this afternoon/evening. Lows from the mid/upr 30s NW to the mid 50s SE. Latest model guidance does show a push of "drier" air working in from the SW by about 09z Sat as the sfc low lifts away to the NE. Will have lower PoPs (40-50%) briefly working into the western half of the FA between 09-12z Sat. Could also see some locally dense fog develop to the SW of Richmond before daybreak as some mid-level drying occurs above moist lower-levels.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 345 PM EST Friday .

The aforementioned sfc low lifts NE and well away from the mid- Atlantic region Saturday morning. However, upper level energy and a secondary sfc low rotating in from WNW will generate additional rain chances from around 12z-18z in our SW FA to 15-21z close to the coast. NW flow will begin to take over in the afternoon behind the departing sfc low, helping to trend PoPs lower in the afternoon. However, cannot completely remove PoPs for the afternoon as additional energy associated with an upper level shortwave will still have to pass (slight chc to low chc PoPs). Some breaks in the clouds will occur in the afternoon SW. Highs from the low 50s NW to the low/mid 60s SE. Total QPF through Saturday will average around 1" across the area.

Dry weather returns Saturday night into Sunday with WNW flow developing. Fair to partly cloudy Saturday night, then mostly sunny on Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs Sunday in the 50s. Sfc high pressure traverses the local area Sunday night, then moves well offshore on Monday. Mid-level riding along with SW flow developing out ahead of the next cold front should help to boost max temps even further. Although, increasing clouds and the potential for low stratus or fog development Monday morning will prohibit max temps from reaching their full potential. Forecast high on Monday from the upr 40s/nr 50 NW to the low/mid 60s SE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Friday .

An upper trough will be located over the central US early next week. A sfc low pressure system is expected to develop across the southern Plains. The low will track northeast as the upper trough moves east. Models have come into closer agreement on the track of the center of the low pressure system. It now looks like the sfc low will track northeast west of the Appalachian Mountains, then track towards the coast north of DC. The will put our entire area in warm sector of the low pressure system. Therefore, high temperatures on Tuesday are expected to approach the upper 60s across southeast VA and northeast NC, near 60 across Delmarva, and upper 50s across central VA. A cold front will push through the region as the center of the sfc low crosses northern NJ/southern NY. Models disagree on the timing of the passage of the front across the area. GFS moves the front off shore well ahead of the ECMWF, likely due to the ECMWF having a more amplified upper level trough across the eastern US. The forecast leans towards the ECMWF with a front moving through Tuesday night with rain likely.

Cooler air and drying conditions will filter into the area after the passage of a cold front Tuesday night. Wednesday morning low temperatures will drop to the upper 20s west of I-95 and upper 30s along the coast. An upper level low pressure will track southeast out of Canada and across the Northeast US Wednesday. This will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air into the region. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 30s across central VA and MD Eastern Shore to mid 40s across Hampton Roads and northeast NC. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low 20s (upper 20s at the VA/NC beaches).

A cold high pressure system will settle across the region Thursday with high temperatures ranging from mid 30s to near 40.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 100 AM EST Saturday .

Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS expected to continue at all terminals through the night and last through at least mid morning, with varying categories for visibility. There should be a break in the steadiest rain by around 9-12z, but then the next round of rain showers arrives quickly from the SW by after 12z and translates eastward to the eastern TAF sites through 18z. Degraded flight conditions will continue into the early afternoon before some drier air finally filters in from the west after 18Z. Outside of any the steady rain, locally dense fog has/will develop and persist through the morning. N to E winds less than 10 kt will become S or SW by around 12z Sat and will become gusty at the coastal terminals by late morning. A gradual return to VFR conditions is expected by Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK . VFR conditions expected Sunday into early next week. The next chance of rain and degraded flight conditions comes on Tuesday.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EST Friday .

The 1039mb high pressure continues to move off the coast of Nova Scotia this afternoon. SCA for waves in the upper coastal zones remains in effect through Saturday. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico continues to move NE bringing with it rain this afternoon through Saturday and then SCA conditions to the bay, lower James River, and all coastal zones Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Winds are mainly 10-15 kt this afternoon and are expected to become 15-20kt by Saturday and 20-25kt with gust to 30kt Saturday night into Sunday morning before subsiding to 10-15 kt by Sunday night. Waves are generally around 2 feet in the Bay and will increase to 3-4 feet by Saturday night. Seas are generally 4-6 feet and will increase to 5-7 feet Saturday night. Conditions improve Sunday night into Monday while high pressure moves into the region.

Increased SW winds Mon night into Tue become moderate to strong NNW winds post cold front by Tue night which continue into Wed night. High prob for SCAs Mon night through Wed and possibly into Thu. Hi pres builds over the waters by Fri resulting in lowering winds and improved overall marine conditions.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Sunday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . JDM NEAR TERM . JDM/RHR SHORT TERM . JDM LONG TERM . CP AVIATION . AJB/RHR MARINE . AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi54 min NW 9.9 G 12
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi54 min WNW 5.1 G 5.1 45°F 44°F1004.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi30 min W 7.8 G 9.7 44°F 45°F1004.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi54 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 45°F 46°F1004.4 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi54 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 46°F1004.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi30 min NNE 7.8 G 7.8 46°F 1005.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi54 min NW 7 G 8 46°F 45°F1004.6 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi42 min WNW 12 G 14 47°F1007.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi114 min NNW 1.9 45°F 1006 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi54 min NW 1.9 44°F 1006 hPa44°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi54 min WNW 6 G 7 47°F 44°F1004 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi31 minWNW 31.00 miFog/Mist49°F48°F97%1003.6 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi49 minN 01.00 miOvercast45°F42°F93%1005.1 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi29 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist42°F41°F100%1005.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi92 minNW 51.00 miFog/Mist45°F45°F100%1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmN4NE7NE7NW3N3NW3CalmCalm3NE63N3N5NE7N6NE8NW3W4CalmCalmW3
1 day ago3CalmNW4NW3CalmNE4NE9NE10E7E54E6E5E3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE3CalmNE4NE4Calm
2 days agoN655NW6NW6NW5NW5NW9W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:04 AM EST     1.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:14 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:11 PM EST     1.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:14 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.611.31.41.310.60.30.1-0.1-00.20.61.11.51.61.61.30.90.60.30-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sat -- 12:48 AM EST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:45 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:16 AM EST     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:38 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:25 PM EST     0.68 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:21 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:30 PM EST     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.40.70.60.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.7-0.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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