Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:15PM Thursday September 16, 2021 6:25 AM EDT (10:25 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 12:47AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 437 Am Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Rest of the overnight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Isolated showers.
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 437 Am Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the weekend. Low pressure developing offshore of the carolinas is expected to track northward offshore through the end of the week, then another area of high pressure will build in from the west. Small craft advisories may be needed for middle portions of the chesapeake bay and lower tidal potomac river on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 160818 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 418 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front weakens later today across the area as low pressure approaches from the southeast through Friday. High pressure builds in from the northwest this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 355 AM EDT Thursday .

The latest analysis indicates a rather broad upper level trough off to our W across the deep south and SE CONUS. Sfc low pressure is located well off the N coast of FL and has ~70% chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next 48 hrs as it moves N and passes by off the Carolina and mid-Atlc coast. An area of showers is developing out over the Gulf Stream and is moving to the NNW and approaching the NC coast. For today, the local area will be sandwiched in between the coastal low remaining well off to our SE and the upper trough moving in from the SW. Thus, while it will be mostly cloudy (with at least mid/high clouds), the chance for widespread rain is still not that great. Have raised PoPs a bit over the western 1/2 of the CWA, mainly this aftn as the bulk of high res guidance suggests that there will be increased lift and moisture associated w/ the upper trough by late this morning and especially this aftn. Some locally heavy downpours will be possible but nothing widespread is expected in terms of flooding concerns. Pops will be lower to the E (mainly 20-30%) where the moisture from the coastal low stays mainly offshore. Highs today will generally range from 80-85, though a few upper 80s are possible in the SE away from the coast is there is no rain and partial sun. Showers/and isolated tstms generally wind down this evening but it will stay mostly cloudy. Lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Pops increase near the coast between 06-12Z Fri Am as deeper moisture from the coastal low moves in from the SE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 410 AM EDT Thursday .

Clouds linger through Fri as the aforementioned shortwave lingers over the local area and the coastal low approaches from the SSE. Additional showers (perhaps a low-end chance of a storm or two in the afternoon) are possible Fri as the sfc low (possibly a tropical depression by this point per NHC) passes by offshore of the northern NC/southern VA coast. While this could technically be tropical, the stronger winds would remain on the E side of the system so impacts other than increased seas and rip currents are minimal for the local area. NE winds at the coast will be on the order of 20-25 mph at most. Have the greatest chance for showers along and east of I-95 (40-50% PoPs). A few degrees cooler for high Fri due to cloud cover with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows Fri night in the mid to upper 60s to around 70F.

The ridge remains offshore/off the SE coast this weekend with models continuing to show a weak coastal low making the northeast turn away from the local area and moving out to sea through the weekend. However, cloud cover likely lingers into Sat given N/NNE flow and the shortwave trough lingering near the coast. However, expect breaks in the clouds by Sat afternoon/evening, particularly in the NE portions of the FA. In addition, a few showers/storms will again be possible Sat afternoon mainly in the Piedmont. Highs Sat in the lower to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 355 AM EDT Thursday .

The medium range period will be dominated by a strong ridge aloft Sun through Tue night, a bit of an omega block in between an upper low downstream off the Canadian maritimes and an upstream trough moving through Canada and the northern Plains. The ridge is forecast to breaks down Wed-Thu as the upstream continues E to the Great Lakes. The models are often too fast at breaking down a pattern like this so will not be going as high with precip w/ the next front late in the period. In general, expect a dry pattern as sfc high pressure will become anchored from off the coast of southern New England to the northern mid- Atlc. Skies will avg out partly to mostly sunny (with potentially a bit more aftn cloud cover in the Piedmont Mon- Tue and all areas Wed). Temperatures will be near to slightly above avg with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Will have a 20% PoP in the forecast by wed aftn and beyond as the sfc high retreats farther offshore and moisture increases a bit.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 200 AM EDT Thursday .

Mainly VFR across the area early this morning, but brief flight restrictions possible at RIC/SBY through ~14Z. Additional showers/tstms possible later today, especially inland this aftn. S winds shift to the E/NE later today at 5-10kt (10-15kt at the immediate coast). Deteriorating conditions with flight restrictions likely overnight into early Fri AM.

Outlook . Sct convection possible Fri as moisture increases from both the sw and e (where low pressure will be passing by offshore) with flight restrictions possible. Some low clouds will linger Fri night into Sat morning. Mainly VFR early next week.

MARINE. As of 925 PM EDT Wednesday .

The National Hurricane Center continues to give a tropical disturbance northeast of the Bahamas a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next 2 days. Model guidance has the center of the tropical low pressure system farther east than previous runs. However, most guidance shows an expanding wind field as it tracks northeast and farther away from our coastline. The low pressure will make its closest approach tonight into Friday morning. SCAs are now in effect for all Atlantic Ocean coastal waters through the weekend as seas quickly increase later on this evening and into tonight. Winds will also be increasing to NE ~20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt tonight into Friday afternoon. SCAs are also in effect tonight into Friday evening for the southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound. Northeasterly to northerly winds will increase tonight into Friday to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. As the low pressure move farther into the Atlantic Ocean Friday evening, winds will become N 10-15 Friday night, then continue to decrease into Saturday.

High pressure will become centered over the Northeast U.S. this weekend and into early next week with winds NE/E 10-15 kt. Seas will come down this weekend but remain 3-4 ft into next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . LKB/RMM LONG TERM . LKB/RMM AVIATION . LKB/MPR MARINE . AJZ/CP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi56 min Calm G 1.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi56 min NW 1 G 1.9 75°F 80°F1017.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi50 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 79°F1 ft
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi56 min S 2.9 G 2.9 76°F 79°F1017.2 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi56 min N 1 G 1 74°F 80°F1016.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi56 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 76°F 1017.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi50 min S 3.9 G 3.9 75°F 78°F1 ft1018 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi56 min W 5.1 G 6 78°F 79°F1017.6 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi50 min S 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 78°F1 ft1018.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi56 min NNE 1 67°F 1017 hPa67°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi56 min Calm 72°F 1018 hPa72°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi56 min SE 6 G 7 76°F 78°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi33 minN 07.00 miFair76°F71°F85%1017.3 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair70°F70°F100%1018.3 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi31 minN 07.00 miFair71°F71°F100%1017.6 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi34 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F71°F91%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7E6E7SE7E7SE4SE4SE4SE6SE6SE5SE5S5S5S4S4CalmS3S4
2 days agoW3W54W5CalmCalmSW4W5SW5SW4SW4SE3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:00 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.51.20.90.60.40.20.30.611.31.51.51.41.20.90.60.40.20.30.611.41.6

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:19 AM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:17 AM EDT     0.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:18 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:05 PM EDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.200.30.20.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.40.60.60.40.1

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